Charting the Past Bears

[minoo 11]

Update

Yesterday (24Feb) market fill the Gap south @ 745 and didnot trade the Globex-only low but took off north

(Note: S&P Cash indices didnot fill gap & nor did the Big Brother NYSE's futures)

The Bear has left it scent and marked its area to visit again

 

Today it filled the opening gap but in north direction at 769 than the prices retraced than again travel up north further & precisely filled the recent gap of 19Feb at 779.5

So 779.5 was also days high & It appears as near northbound resistance on daily chart.

Do we get an Globex-Only high > 779.5 ?

 

Enjoy Minoo

 

Below is an extract from todays motivator

http://greatday.com/v.html?2219s07MRpn8

+--- From here, you can go anywhere. Choose the direction that you know is yours--- +

[minoo 11]

Videolink of 'Pretcher on Bloomberg'

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9153.html

 

Note why is Bob advising clients to be out of shorts eventhough he forecast the Bear to continue on ?

 

His views on Gold/Silver, Bonds and Dollar has brought to question my understanding of Intermarket relationship (Is Deflation already the culprit)

 

Once again time to consider positions in Inverse-ETFs, BearMarket funds or even Bonds now ? ? ?

Oh the Joy !

Minoo

 

http://greatday.com/v.html?2222z07MRpn8

[minoo 11]

Just after opening of S&P futures Globex-only session, it touched the low of 681.50 with some volatility and shot up

On Weekly chart we have confluence of Historic TL from past bear market and Fibs

 

So far its traded Globex-only high of 705.5 some ten points short of Yesterdays High at 715.25

 

Enjoy Minoo

http://greatday.com/v.html?2225e07MRpn8

[Harlequin 10]

An interesting log scale chart. Shows market in an up channel since 1800 and it's now just starting a pull back. Not too sure what the basis for 2012 and 2016-18 projections is, but food for thought anyway.

[minoo 11]

Read Stevens comments of 12 Oct 08 in the below URL

(roughly 20% scroll down on the long web-page)

 

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm

 

You will also find the linear monthly and inflation adjusted charts of the same

Note: On linear scale charts those channels appear as curved

 

Wow, his charts & brief are worth checking out.

 

Thanks Minoo

[minoo 11]

Hope you are enjoying playing these Rallies

 

Though bear in mind Todays Gap remains unfill & also The Globex-Only low of S&P futures remains untraded during the Normal Session hours

 

The bear has clearly left his mark(s) in different areas

 

We are trading in-between two impending gaps

It remains to be seen the Gap above at 734.25 of 27Feb or Todays Gap at 689.50

Which fills in first ? ?

 

Note: 27Feb gap also appears on the weekly & monthly chart, refer updated chart.

 

Here is an good article from investorsintelligence worth reading, I posted the same on Brett Steenbarger Blogg

http://www.investorsintelligence.com/img/edu/ii_advisors_sentiment.pdf

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Important Price Divergence between ES and NQ on the daily chart

 

Employment figures out early AM

(How does the market treat the stats remains to be seen)

 

 

Enjoy Minoo

http://greatday.com/v.html?2226507MRpn8

[Harlequin 10]

Important Price Divergence between ES and NQ on the daily chart

 

 

The NQ has been holding up much better for some time.

[minoo 11]

Just attempted my first Swing Long

Based on the same price Divergence pattern but between ES and its Big Brother off the 9minute chart

 

Let see how its progresses through the Day or Days to come

 

Enjoy Minoo

http://greatday.com/v.html?2227g07MRpn8

[minoo 11]

The Bottom Scalps have paid off

Price didnot take out 700 level and went to trade the Globex low (678) and Previous Day low 676.25 found support here (traded this level for an hour or so) and Divergence was still noticeable so took the previous swings with these scalps

 

Some Buy Programs kicked in too so that helped

 

I am done now, if the previous swing gets taken out I will get an sound alert and may try again from the lows 650 ? ?

 

Have a good weekend

-Ta Minoo

[minoo 11]

End of Day play update

 

Soon after the scalps were posted my swing stop got hit!

Heard the alert when DOW went below 6500, and took quick bullish scalp or two on the ES as DOW was showing some support

 

Took Schedule break for Kids activity run and than attended to my End of day play. I mostly do this EOD plays if I am interested in Globex-only session but took the opportunity of these low prices and anticipated probability of Friday higher close.

 

First just sclaped than as the area hold and formed double bottom at Daily midpoint pivot of S1S2, 685.75 put in the swing as well. Pl. refer to chart.

Setup was Pattern double bottom at midpoint pivot and again Program buys thereafter kicking in towards the end of day

Trigger was HOLP cross (High of the Low Pivot); Had good momentum so holding the swing position.

Note the prices closed just above previous days close. ES performed better than NQ. I have used 5400 share-bars for my scalp workspace and 9 & 4 minute for my two swing position plays.

 

BF I totally agree with you about focus & time-out; if I would have tried to play without taking appropriate breaks in between than would have attempted more on the Bulls side (my 06th March preference) and may have made a mess. The breaks in between kept me away from developing my Bull preference into BIAS. Still worse my early contrary-sense & as this herd of bears continues in its track, springs early opprotunities at various places in my mind for bottom fishing. I use my self-indicator to time myself out; Refresh & Regain objectivity, its absolutely so Vital!

 

I was also making a point to few of my trading colleagues this week, that on big move days like today I do better without using much indicators but with Events & Patterns at Areas and as usual Tape, Tick and Premium in the background to help. Sorry so had to post quite a few charts in this thread.

 

Hope this helps; Have a very good weekend

 

Ta Minoo

 

Denise yesterday, I started to dissolve most of my bear market funds and inverse-ETFs when market headed towards 680. Didnot much day-trade yesterday. This week must say I found Globex-only trading with FESX & ES quite profitable.

Edited March 6, 2009 by minoo

[minoo 11]

Attached pdf is the 8th March Article

Title: A 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis

Cycles - Breadth - Price projections

 

from Andre Gratian of Turning Points

 

Best to refer to the chart first before you read Elliot

 

Enjoy Minoo

http://greatday.com/v.html?2229h07MRpn8

TurningPoints-8thMarch09.pdf

[daedalus 10]

[minoo 11]

Bear Bottoming Process by Doug Short

 

Click on the chart and through the upper tabs to play out the different bear market bottom forming process

Note how many weeks, months %fall it took to start forming the bottom in compare to how quick and steep the main fall was

Also note the bar above X-axis where the author starts the following bull market count from, Do you agree ?

http://dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-bottoming-process.html

 

ok this one is predicted to be an L shaped

You can fiddle a bit more here

http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-comparisons.html?mega-bear-quartet

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Chart Updates

 

S&P kissed 800 yesterday, will 800 be the initial resistance play ?

Possible Gap(s) fill levels of 13Feb09 just above !

Trying to keep an open mind here towards the trend, this Bear Market Rally presents

 

I sincerely hope man that you all have fiddle with Doug Short charts as posted in the previous thread. Any Bottom Forming could take weeks to months to years, just keep things in context ( )

 

But one needs to make the low first & than test it

 

Note: Bear's Big-Gaps of 9th March below, in any case of bottom making this probably will get filled, who knows how quick or long it takes . . .. .

& dont presume anything when you get there either . . ..

 

Keep Open Mind & certainly any BIAS Away

 

Enjoy Minoo

http://greatday.com/v.html?2238h07MRpn8

[minoo 11]

Chart Update & Gap Observations:

 

There is still Gap on the S&P 500 Cash Indices of 13 Feb at 826.84

This gap appears on both the daily and weekly 'Cash Index' charts,

Though the ES 'Future Index' gap of 13Feb@816.75 was filled on '23April '

 

Nasdaq Cash Index left the gap above at 1259.81 yesterday of '23April'

 

The above gap scenario is very interesting with Nasdaq leading so far.

 

Sorry didnot manage to post this before the regular session opens but some important Questions to be aware off,

 

Will it mark the intermediate high when the gaps above fills ?

Yesterday was inside day for both ES & NQ, will it do da head-fake ?

 

When Todays (25th March) gap at 803.25 fills whenever, Will it start the correction to this Bear Market Rally ?

 

(Nasdaq cash just filled its 23 April gap at 1259.81, (so cutting loose the first long on ES at 821.5 measured alternate, Midpoint pivot, Previous High confluence area) around time of posting)

 

 

Enjoy Minoo

http://greatday.com/v.html?2243e07MRpn8

Edited March 25, 2009 by minoo

[minoo 11]

Fib Measured Alternate Projection complete to 100% ?

 

Once the Bear market rally achieves symmetry on par with the pullback-leg of 21 Nov 08 to 06 Jan 09 leg

Will the Bears Pounce and try to muscle over this rally ?

Did some distribution started towards EOD action or just booking of some spectacular profits by some. Whatever it may be .. .

 

In the chart I have hand drawn lines (approx)

Cyan lines for long legs (major) of the lady and Magenta lines minor legs

I am sure some may be able to eye some exotic patterns in between here

 

Point wise even though it seems a perfect fit, Fib-Time projection is around 27th April (Note: I am just learning Fib-Time projections)

Measurement of the ladys legs of Nov-Jan and April-March09 are just a Tick Difference

939.5 - 735.25 = 204.25 (6JanHigh - 21NovLow)

867 - 662.5 = 204.50 (16AprilHigh - 6MarchLow)

 

I have cut loose most of my ES swing long positions today, bottom fishing in March was fun and this 100% leg swing on ES is good enough for me

NQ is leading and in vicinity of 4thNov gap fill at 1381.25

 

Still keeping an Open Mind towards this spectacular Bear-Rally,

but booked some profits today.

 

Good trading to Ya a!!

Minoo

[suriNotes 11]

Minoo,

 

Good Analysis...

 

Here is Symmetry chart of @ES.

Also see Rising Wedge pattern...

 

Regards,

Suri

Edited April 17, 2009 by suriNotes

[suriNotes 11]

Here is a better chart of @ES Symmetry...

Key Symmetry in this chart is XA and DT legs Symmetry (29 bars)

and 205 pts at Key Ratios (76%)

 

Regards,

Suri

[minoo 11]

Some Key Figures to bear in mind

 

24July02 ES.D low is showing at 890.5

 

10Oct02 ES.D low is showing at 884.5

 

So far the Globex-Only high 887 (30April AM) in berween the above two figures!

 

The above two figures formed the bottom pattern of the previous recession low on the S&P 500 Futures

 

Will the Nasdaq stop leading the long side now, as it has touched the 200MA or will still lead towards the 1460 / 80 area ?

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Its May & So, Do we stick to the Traditional Way ?

 

 

Sam Stovall Of S&P Equity Research: 'Sell In May' And Go Away?

 

Or

 

Dont '... . .. . . .' , You will be happy you Stayed!

 

 

Hear all about it! (Duration: 5mins)

 

 

Enjoy Minoo

AMBUZZ-Stovall-05.01.09-lbr.mp3

Edited May 3, 2009 by minoo

[minoo 11]

Bear Market Rally Chart & Update

 

Did well playing the Bears Bottom, & than hanging in with Bear Market Rally

Its just over an year since I traded mostly on the Bull side and now have got out most long positions.

S&P recently filled the 26Sept08 Weekly Gap & on monthly 61.8 retracement is at 1228.

 

I would now prefer to mostly daytrade & take opportunities as they come along

Keeping an eye out on Gold

 

Have annotated the S&P charts, any feedback welcome

Taking it easy this May.

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

I have updated both the charts

 

Previous two Weeks shows consecutive Outside Bars

 

I have highlighted the area which denotes the retracement of two previous WRBs of 3 Oct and 10 Oct 2008

and just above it as previously annotated the 26th Oct 08 Gap which filled on 26 April 10

And

Both previous Months have minor gaps, refer to monthly chart

 

Sorry man the fib timing part I have marked on the weekly, but no comments as much difficult for the top formation

Pl. request Suri he is the best person to comment on Symmetry formation & fib targets

 

No I am not yet taken any swing stance, I will keep an open mind let the top or this volatility play out,

No swing plays for me as the wide range may hit often my trailing swing stops,

So just playing it Nimble & Safe here with the anticipated volatility; Daytrading with a limited/reduced account

 

Trade Well

 

Enjoy Minoo

[SunTrader 10]

Here is my EW/fib based chart with mininum (hit?) and maximum zone areas:

[minoo 11]

Thankyou Sun for the Elliot Update, wish Tradestation has such EW indicator

(or does it ? Anyone .. . )

 

A quick update, as per request, I have included the daily-cash with the gaps marked

The trick is to observe gaps in both S&P Cash and Futures Indices, I monitor gaps on both.

Sorry I have not much time to annotate the daily at the moment.

I mostly look out for WRB's, Bearish bars, Inside / Outside bars, Gaps & Fibs and Measured Alternates

 

On the ES futures index you can see today how it found an area and bottomed While Dollar Peaked out around 84.4, I have found intermarket relationships more of use than just relying on indicators. Next target for Dollar 85.5 & ES to the projected symmetry & gap fills area below.

Gold & Dollar usual inverse relationship seems to be working fine again today after days of disruption.

 

Correct, on the S&P weekly I am using the 500 & 900 Simple Moving Average as in reference to the Bear

Others are proprietary Fib lines. Sorry.

 

In the magnified weekly chart I have projected the dashed-lines & Synchornised the color

The juncture falls at 61.8% retracement, if it works-out than we will call it Symmetry, LOL

 

I am more looking out for daytrading opportunities in GBP, USD and Gold as general election in UK

 

Good Trading to You all.

Minoo

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