Charting the Past Bears

[minoo 11]

Interactive chart of past bear markets,

 

Click on the the grey lines to highlight historical bear market falls

 

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/10/11/business/20081011_BEAR_MARKETS.html

 

Note: 0% orientation is at top left

 

Please feel free to discuss any common patterns of bear market trading, bottoming or politics of it.

 

Thanks Minoo

[TraderBG 10]

Thank minoo very useful.

[minoo 11]

Carl Swenlin of decisionpoint on bear-bottom formation and analysis

Compares bear bottom type & formation with July 02 fall

 

Could previous bear-market support zone be used here ?

 

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2008/1017.html

 

Enjoy Minoo

[TraderBG 10]

Thanks for the read minoo. I'll certainly be watching those lows very carefully.

[minoo 11]

Bear Market Phases

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/bear-market-phases.html

 

Decades of Bear

S&P 500 comparision with Nikkie

Scared the Doogle$ out of me

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-500-crash-count-compared-to-nikkei.html

 

What the heck is going on presently (6:00 AM EST 24 Oct) at S&P 855.25 Globex only session stuck their for over an hour ?

 

Enjoy Minoo

Hey TrderBG you are welcome

[minoo 11]

Thanks Bootstrap, S&P 500 is limit down for Globex-only session

Has this ever happen before ?

 

https://www.cme.com/trading/files/EquityIndexPriceLimitGuide.pdf

[liowkc 10]

Even without looking at the charts, this bear will be a big one. Personally I don't think the Dow will climb above 10,000 in the near future and I think the Nikkei will also stay below 10,000 for quite some time to come.

[minoo 11]

Video chart right from 1929 black tuesday to present,

Dow fell from nearly 400 to under 50 points

Its mind bogling to know that it took over two decades!

In 1954 it made back to pre-crash highs.

 

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=t7Gy1yQkuwg

 

And since how many decades has Nikkie been decaying ?

 

Makes you wonder, How long will it take this time ?

 

Minoo

[minoo 11]

Is the Bear feeling Bullish today

After the dip below 2002 line ?

Have we got the first cheek of the bottom ?

 

Time to trade off your Inverse-ETFs or atleast Hedge them

Oh those dividend yields makes me an weak-bear

 

Would like your opinion

 

Thanks Minoo

Edited November 21, 2008 by minoo

[minoo 11]

Worth noting this bear has entered not only the area of the previous bear market of Oct 02

 

But also the Zone created by the rising Trendlines drawn from the bear market lows of Oct 87 & Aug 82 (Cyan & Blue lines)

 

There are seldom any Weekly Gaps but this Bear have got three of them not very visible on chart (magenta dashed lines)

 

The horizontal yellow line is drawn from the Oct 02 low,

Will the Trader Vic 2B Signal (Re: Suri) lift us out of this area ?

 

Move down from the 500 MA to 900 MA is off 253.37 points

(1227.12 - 973.75)

 

If you believe in Symmetry than the next low could be projected at 720.38

(900MA - Leg_Down, 973.75 - 253.37)

 

Any charts / comments welcome

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Reply from Suri on the 2B Signal (refer previous post chart above)

 

+----------------------------+

Hi Minoo,

Thanks for your email...

I looked at the Monthly chart of $INX.

 

In order for 2B to form/confirm, within the next few bars, price must trade close the bar it breaks the prior low. On a Monthly chart, the high of the current Monthly bar is 1007.5, which is about 200+ points from now.

 

I am not sure about 2B here but your TL analysis might be good...

+------------------------------+

 

Thanks Suri, much appreciated and Congratulations man!

Regards Minoo

[minoo 11]

Comparing Bottoms of 003 & 009 !

 

Extract from the below URL By Chris Vermeulen

 

+---------------------------------------------+

The charts below will really open your eyes as to how similar today's W looking bottom is to the W shaped bottom in 2003. Of course 6 years later the markets trade and move faster than ever before because of technology allowing traders to track and trade stocks from anywhere with a click of a button. So this years bottom formed much quicker.

 

Traders, individual investors, hedge funds, financial institutions and even some of the guys on CNBC are starting to buy stocks and etfs (exchange traded funds) at these price levels. I remember the market bottom in 2003 and it was much similar to the type of energy buzzing these past few weeks. Of course there is a lot more drama with Obama as president, Printing US Dollars, Scandals and bad news hitting the market day after day. But what makes all this normal is that it cannot get much worse in the news and everyone is expecting it for months to follow. Traders and investors don't even flinch when bad news comes out anymore and to top it off the SP500 has formed the same pattern it did during the last bear market bottom in 2003

 

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8661.html

 

Scroll down a page to view the charts

 

Enjoy Minoo!

Edited February 22, 2009 by minoo

[DbPhoenix 42]

the SP500 has formed the same pattern it did during the last bear market bottom in 2003

 

He neglects to mention, however, that the bear market ended when and how it did due to the creation of the RE bubble. What bubble is going to save us this time?

[minoo 11]

Thanks for the reminder, here is the update of the previously posted weekly chart

I have added the 1200MA and one more fib retracement to find the confluence

 

Confluence appears to be in the zone of 680

(two fib retracements and rising TL from 31Aug1982)

 

S&P have closed (770.05) first time below the rising trendline (Cyan in chart) drawn from the 23Oct 1987 and just above the low of Oct2002 (Yellow line) at 768.67; But this week bar has left gap above!

 

Db I will let Chris get back to you, hope you have not miss out the concluding para of his article though.

 

Enjoy Minoo

[daedalus 10]

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

Db I will let Chris get back to you, hope you have not miss out the concluding para of his article though.

 

Nope, didn't miss it. However, another pundit stated that we would be "rocketing" higher at the red line:

 

 

 

 

As for what traders, investors, etc, are doing, they've been trying to support the market since last March, so whatever buying they're doing now is not necessarily a harbinger of Spring.

 

The market can as always do what it wants, and will, even to the extent of turning on a dime. But I would not start buying up stocks and ETFs just because the guys on CNBC are doing so or because a couple of patterns appear to match. When the bottoming process begins, there will be more than enough time to jump aboard what will likely be a very slow-moving train.

[TheGoldAndOilGuy 10]

DB,

 

I completely agree with you opinions and outlook. My article simply showed how we are currentin showing similar chart patterns as we did on most other bottoms. I'm not saying its a bottom as we cannot have a bottom until the banks get sorted out. But this is a good place for some long term cash to be put to work for those who are not active traders. We could get one more leg lower before things go higher, but some of the dividend funds are paying 10-17% dividends making them a pretty good investment for the average Joe if they want to average down and earn some dividend income on top of what ever gains happen in the next 4-5 years.

 

Most of us on here are active traders so waiting for a bottom and taking advantage of it using leveraged funds like TNA, FAS etc.. once things turn around gives us tones of time and opportunities.

 

Happy Trading

Chris

[DbPhoenix 42]

DB,

 

I completely agree with you opinions and outlook. My article simply showed how we are currentin showing similar chart patterns as we did on most other bottoms. I'm not saying its a bottom as we cannot have a bottom until the banks get sorted out. But this is a good place for some long term cash to be put to work for those who are not active traders. We could get one more leg lower before things go higher, but some of the dividend funds are paying 10-17% dividends making them a pretty good investment for the average Joe if they want to average down and earn some dividend income on top of what ever gains happen in the next 4-5 years.

 

Most of us on here are active traders so waiting for a bottom and taking advantage of it using leveraged funds like TNA, FAS etc.. once things turn around gives us tones of time and opportunities.

 

Happy Trading

Chris

 

On the other hand, the dividends may not and will not likely hold if prices fall further. Therefore, I can't concur that this is a "good place to buy".

 

But then, it's not my money.

[minoo 11]

Everything was negative today again, Played the Morning Gap close and than short on to Globex low, pretty much the same drill which I did last week. Though my expectation have grown towards the 'Bear Market Rally'. Waited right till the end and than went long on S&P 741.75 after big-brother NYSE close and the Algos started to kick in Buy Progs. This is the second time I have taken this contradictory action from my running Bear Market Trading Plan

 

After the market close I went quickly browsing for some info on 'Bear Market Rally' to may be justify my actions, results to be or maybe reason for a good night sleep, whatever .. . blah blah .... blah .. .

 

I came across this excellent site http://dshort.com/

Absolute worth checking out, short briefs and very intuitive charts on below topics:

-Four Bad Bears (also check the CPI adjusted chart below)

-Bottoming out process (brilliant interactive chart for base comparision)

-Regression to trend (what can I say .. .)

 

Got to review these charts again with fresh mind and add to journal some stats

 

I am not sure of my closing action or of my swing targets yet, though scale in orders are in place; Got to take responsibility and play it out in the same consistent style.

May have jump the gun.

 

Goodnight All

Enjoy Minoo

 

http://greatday.com/v.html?2217507MRpn8

[minoo 11]

Another good & dare I say timely article by Andre of MarketTurningPoints.com

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9036.html

 

I like his take on Projections and Breadth

(MACD on NYSE A/D line ?, something to check out here .. .. .)

 

Enjoy Minoo

 

http://greatday.com/v.html?2218g07MRpn8

 

Note: A better version of the same was found on below website

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=12667&pv=1

Edited February 24, 2009 by minoo

[DbPhoenix 42]

Apart from the various newsletters and pundits and gurus, what does your own analysis tell you? Looking at the chart, and only the chart, without any indicators or calculations of any sort,

 

1. what do you see as the next level of support, if we fail to rally here, and why?

 

2. what is the likelihood that we will rally and why?

 

3. if we do rally, how far do you think we might get and why?

 

I don't mean for this to sound like a quiz, but I'm much more interested in what you think than in the opinions of the usual professional technician.

 

One other point. Chopping up charts in order to support a conclusion at which one has already arrived is easy to do and common and dangerous. Each bottom is unique, and one must evaluate what is happening in his own market in his own time in order to determine when and where and how the bottoming process is unfolding. There then remains the equally and possibly more difficult task of deciding what to do about it.

[minoo 11]

Hi Db

 

On the intraday side I have now become an cautious and reluctant Bear and will go grazing more willingly with the bulls

 

I think the bear has made enough headway on the south path for the time being

In market nothing remain in unidirection so far we had a good run in this direction

 

So its simply time / cycle for me this week to be more contradictory and look out for change. 740 is a good area for me to look for an rebounce (anticipating Volatility as well)

Simply put, I will scalp the short side and swing the long side

 

Below is another good article by Ray he uses MP, Delta and Normalised Vol to give an perspective on the present Bear's stance

http://www.greenfaucet.com/print/6188#

 

Enjoy Minoo

[DbPhoenix 42]

I think the bear has made enough headway on the south path for the time being

 

Any particular reason?

[minoo 11]

Thanks for asking Db

 

Just anticipating an corrective cycle / phase to this Bear run

I would say time and cycle from an area

but be aware of the News & Volatility

 

Best thing for me is not to form any BIAS but be clear about my preferences

 

As I said earlier I will Scalp with the Bear South of 740 and Swing with the Bulls North of 740, and implement an no trade zone around it.

 

Hope this helps

 

Good trading to you all

Minoo

[daedalus 10]

Updated chart.

 

 

Anyone feel like getting long?