Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

minoo

Charting the Past Bears

Recommended Posts

Bear Market Phases

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/bear-market-phases.html

 

Decades of Bear

S&P 500 comparision with Nikkie

Scared the Doogle$ out of me

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-500-crash-count-compared-to-nikkei.html

 

What the heck is going on presently (6:00 AM EST 24 Oct) at S&P 855.25 Globex only session stuck their for over an hour ?

 

Enjoy Minoo

Hey TrderBG you are welcome

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even without looking at the charts, this bear will be a big one. Personally I don't think the Dow will climb above 10,000 in the near future and I think the Nikkei will also stay below 10,000 for quite some time to come.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the Bear feeling Bullish today

After the dip below 2002 line ?

Have we got the first cheek of the bottom ?

 

Time to trade off your Inverse-ETFs or atleast Hedge them

Oh those dividend yields makes me an weak-bear

 

Would like your opinion

 

Thanks Minoo

Edited by minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Worth noting this bear has entered not only the area of the previous bear market of Oct 02

 

But also the Zone created by the rising Trendlines drawn from the bear market lows of Oct 87 & Aug 82 (Cyan & Blue lines)

 

There are seldom any Weekly Gaps but this Bear have got three of them not very visible on chart (magenta dashed lines)

 

The horizontal yellow line is drawn from the Oct 02 low,

Will the Trader Vic 2B Signal (Re: Suri) lift us out of this area ?

 

Move down from the 500 MA to 900 MA is off 253.37 points

(1227.12 - 973.75)

 

If you believe in Symmetry than the next low could be projected at 720.38

(900MA - Leg_Down, 973.75 - 253.37)

 

Any charts / comments welcome

 

Enjoy Minoo

Bear-MonthlyChart-Nov08.thumb.PNG.0b02640bd7cc53fcbf7531c145b0637b.PNG

BearWeekly-Nov08.thumb.PNG.95c41db445a7f095f07433852df43ca2.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reply from Suri on the 2B Signal (refer previous post chart above)

 

+----------------------------+

Hi Minoo,

Thanks for your email...

I looked at the Monthly chart of $INX.

 

In order for 2B to form/confirm, within the next few bars, price must trade close the bar it breaks the prior low. On a Monthly chart, the high of the current Monthly bar is 1007.5, which is about 200+ points from now.

 

I am not sure about 2B here but your TL analysis might be good...

+------------------------------+

 

Thanks Suri, much appreciated and Congratulations man!

Regards Minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Comparing Bottoms of 003 & 009 !

 

Extract from the below URL By Chris Vermeulen

 

+---------------------------------------------+

The charts below will really open your eyes as to how similar today's W looking bottom is to the W shaped bottom in 2003. Of course 6 years later the markets trade and move faster than ever before because of technology allowing traders to track and trade stocks from anywhere with a click of a button. So this years bottom formed much quicker.

 

Traders, individual investors, hedge funds, financial institutions and even some of the guys on CNBC are starting to buy stocks and etfs (exchange traded funds) at these price levels. I remember the market bottom in 2003 and it was much similar to the type of energy buzzing these past few weeks. Of course there is a lot more drama with Obama as president, Printing US Dollars, Scandals and bad news hitting the market day after day. But what makes all this normal is that it cannot get much worse in the news and everyone is expecting it for months to follow. Traders and investors don't even flinch when bad news comes out anymore and to top it off the SP500 has formed the same pattern it did during the last bear market bottom in 2003

 

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8661.html

 

Scroll down a page to view the charts

 

Enjoy Minoo!

Edited by minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
the SP500 has formed the same pattern it did during the last bear market bottom in 2003

 

He neglects to mention, however, that the bear market ended when and how it did due to the creation of the RE bubble. What bubble is going to save us this time?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the reminder, here is the update of the previously posted weekly chart

I have added the 1200MA and one more fib retracement to find the confluence

 

Confluence appears to be in the zone of 680

(two fib retracements and rising TL from 31Aug1982)

 

S&P have closed (770.05) first time below the rising trendline (Cyan in chart) drawn from the 23Oct 1987 and just above the low of Oct2002 (Yellow line) at 768.67; But this week bar has left gap above!

 

Db I will let Chris get back to you, hope you have not miss out the concluding para of his article though.

 

Enjoy Minoo

5aa70eb3c82a4_SPWeeklyBearUpdated22Feb09.thumb.PNG.1d1b75a5688ea820d978c9c74c033484.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Db I will let Chris get back to you, hope you have not miss out the concluding para of his article though.

 

Nope, didn't miss it. However, another pundit stated that we would be "rocketing" higher at the red line:

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=9533&stc=1&d=1235392898

 

 

As for what traders, investors, etc, are doing, they've been trying to support the market since last March, so whatever buying they're doing now is not necessarily a harbinger of Spring.

 

The market can as always do what it wants, and will, even to the extent of turning on a dime. But I would not start buying up stocks and ETFs just because the guys on CNBC are doing so or because a couple of patterns appear to match. When the bottoming process begins, there will be more than enough time to jump aboard what will likely be a very slow-moving train.

:)

Image3.gif.4f4fbc6431acc79f67dd74214c9ed8a8.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DB,

 

I completely agree with you opinions and outlook. My article simply showed how we are currentin showing similar chart patterns as we did on most other bottoms. I'm not saying its a bottom as we cannot have a bottom until the banks get sorted out. But this is a good place for some long term cash to be put to work for those who are not active traders. We could get one more leg lower before things go higher, but some of the dividend funds are paying 10-17% dividends making them a pretty good investment for the average Joe if they want to average down and earn some dividend income on top of what ever gains happen in the next 4-5 years.

 

Most of us on here are active traders so waiting for a bottom and taking advantage of it using leveraged funds like TNA, FAS etc.. once things turn around gives us tones of time and opportunities.

 

Happy Trading

Chris

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DB,

 

I completely agree with you opinions and outlook. My article simply showed how we are currentin showing similar chart patterns as we did on most other bottoms. I'm not saying its a bottom as we cannot have a bottom until the banks get sorted out. But this is a good place for some long term cash to be put to work for those who are not active traders. We could get one more leg lower before things go higher, but some of the dividend funds are paying 10-17% dividends making them a pretty good investment for the average Joe if they want to average down and earn some dividend income on top of what ever gains happen in the next 4-5 years.

 

Most of us on here are active traders so waiting for a bottom and taking advantage of it using leveraged funds like TNA, FAS etc.. once things turn around gives us tones of time and opportunities.

 

Happy Trading

Chris

 

On the other hand, the dividends may not and will not likely hold if prices fall further. Therefore, I can't concur that this is a "good place to buy".

 

But then, it's not my money.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything was negative today again, Played the Morning Gap close and than short on to Globex low, pretty much the same drill which I did last week. Though my expectation have grown towards the 'Bear Market Rally'. Waited right till the end and than went long on S&P 741.75 after big-brother NYSE close and the Algos started to kick in Buy Progs. This is the second time I have taken this contradictory action from my running Bear Market Trading Plan

 

After the market close I went quickly browsing for some info on 'Bear Market Rally' to may be justify my actions, results to be or maybe reason for a good night sleep, whatever .. . blah blah .... blah .. .

 

I came across this excellent site http://dshort.com/

Absolute worth checking out, short briefs and very intuitive charts on below topics:

-Four Bad Bears (also check the CPI adjusted chart below)

-Bottoming out process (brilliant interactive chart for base comparision)

-Regression to trend (what can I say .. .)

 

Got to review these charts again with fresh mind and add to journal some stats

 

I am not sure of my closing action or of my swing targets yet, though scale in orders are in place; Got to take responsibility and play it out in the same consistent style.

May have jump the gun.

 

Goodnight All

Enjoy Minoo

 

http://greatday.com/v.html?2217507MRpn8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another good & dare I say timely article by Andre of MarketTurningPoints.com

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9036.html

 

I like his take on Projections and Breadth

(MACD on NYSE A/D line ?, something to check out here .. .. .)

 

Enjoy Minoo

 

http://greatday.com/v.html?2218g07MRpn8

 

Note: A better version of the same was found on below website

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=12667&pv=1

Edited by minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apart from the various newsletters and pundits and gurus, what does your own analysis tell you? Looking at the chart, and only the chart, without any indicators or calculations of any sort,

 

1. what do you see as the next level of support, if we fail to rally here, and why?

 

2. what is the likelihood that we will rally and why?

 

3. if we do rally, how far do you think we might get and why?

 

I don't mean for this to sound like a quiz, but I'm much more interested in what you think than in the opinions of the usual professional technician.

 

One other point. Chopping up charts in order to support a conclusion at which one has already arrived is easy to do and common and dangerous. Each bottom is unique, and one must evaluate what is happening in his own market in his own time in order to determine when and where and how the bottoming process is unfolding. There then remains the equally and possibly more difficult task of deciding what to do about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Db

 

On the intraday side I have now become an cautious and reluctant Bear and will go grazing more willingly with the bulls

 

I think the bear has made enough headway on the south path for the time being

In market nothing remain in unidirection so far we had a good run in this direction

 

So its simply time / cycle for me this week to be more contradictory and look out for change. 740 is a good area for me to look for an rebounce (anticipating Volatility as well)

Simply put, I will scalp the short side and swing the long side

 

Below is another good article by Ray he uses MP, Delta and Normalised Vol to give an perspective on the present Bear's stance

http://www.greenfaucet.com/print/6188#

 

Enjoy Minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for asking Db

 

Just anticipating an corrective cycle / phase to this Bear run

I would say time and cycle from an area

but be aware of the News & Volatility

 

Best thing for me is not to form any BIAS but be clear about my preferences

 

As I said earlier I will Scalp with the Bear South of 740 and Swing with the Bulls North of 740, and implement an no trade zone around it.

 

Hope this helps

 

Good trading to you all

Minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.