Charting the Past Bears

[minoo 11]

The Eventful WRB

 

It got created for whatever the reason (Mistake, Fat finger, Bill - Mill mix up)

The price got traded and its plotted on our charts

For the Technician, truth is there as it shows, it doesnot matter for whatever reason it happened!

Debate as much as you like but also keep an Open Mind, The market will trade it range again

I completely understand it will skew short term indicators, time series, cycles, etc.

 

I have use the 50MA on the weekly, which shows support and a minor trendline through the previous recent lows

 

I will treat it the same as others but when price comes near the lows and highs than I would expect again an emotional crowd or extreme cautious. Mark it as Support, Resistance, Potential Head-fake area, Gap Area (If they prefer to trade it over-night session less of a crowd to control) etc, etc whatever is defined in your system. From my system guidelines, I will not trade such events for atleast the next two trading days. Be Cautious but not be afraid to trade it. Treat it as an volatile fed news event and trade it as a parabola over the next days (Generally for indices, what goes suddenly down with news trades back up and than the market decides) There are plenty of opportunities elsewhere to daytrade as I previously said Gold, Dollar and Pound. I am done my friend, & I thought its May, take it easy. Will do Now.

 

Have a Good Weekend

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Thought I update this thread, Seasonally Speaking!

 

Will May be early in the Markets & Beginning of The End of QE2 will have added effect ? ?

Mark Hulberts comment well enlightens the present Scenario & Sentiment.

Some Historical backing too, Note the previous CAPE valuation in regards to Past Bear Markets

 

History bodes ill for stock market - MarketWatch

 

Need to take Heed to avoid the May Heat.

 

Any comments Welcome

 

-Ta Minoo

 

Note the comments of Previous May's in this and another thread 'Sell in May and Go Away';

Prepare, Plan & Enjoy.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hi minoo,

 

It's definitely a possibility. I can't say that I am especially bullish right now but perhaps there is something bigger underlying the markets right now that is brewing. Dip buying does seem to still be present although we will have to monitor the reaction of price to that demand. Also, global events/earnings/central bank policy are going to be important. I could see us going either way at this juncture honestly but clearly markets are due to move. I remember last high, people started talking as if we were way too high and were due for a major correction. Imo, it's when most stop calling tops/bottoms that they actually form. But we shall watch and wait....

[GlassOnion 12]

You can also ask the opinion of your Doctor or Dentist. When they start buying or Selling, you know the wave is over .

[minoo 11]

Seasonally I am taking an Exit and went Flat during the early Globex Opening by 2AM GMT (28th April) or 9PM EST (27th APril) with most of The Swing Long Positions

Accept YG & Gld which I am tightening the trail to go Flat Completely and have a clean break from the Markets for the next month.

 

If occasion and opportunity allows can always day trade.

 

I am not sure what plan you all have for the 'May and Go Away' theme but I am almost done man.

 

I have attached Dollar, Euro and S&P chart; Any comments welcome.

 

Is anyone thinking contrarian to be Long Dollar soon ? ?

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Anticipated this Royal Fib Push in Gold

Top of Weekly Channel, Went Flat just minutes ago

Now Flat on the market for the holiday season

 

Though the Dollar trade is looking very tempting, will set up limit entry levels

 

Enjoy the Holidays

Minoo

[MadMarketScientist 11]

I sold most everything early April ... in hindsight maybe a few weeks to early but better safe than sorry. The dollar looks like a decent contrarian short-term trade purely based on technicals ... but long term not so sure.

 

But for now I'm holding mostly cash, sold some naked puts, and holding some gold, silver, and oil.

[minoo 11]

Thanks MMS & Friends for the comments and query, I will try to explain as below please also refer to the charts it may help.

 

I generally donot like to post charts about my entries nor charts after event has past; I hope the charts posted here will help to understand the below explanation. I try avoiding charts with right side printed and positions shown on left side.

 

Though I firmly believe, that 'Present Hind-Sight is my Big-Picture'

 

I completed my exits in future Gold contracts around the 1560 area & updated this thread as quickly as I could. Just after posting here Gold Price shot up to nearly 1570 within minutes. It gave me no chance to move and do some Dollar Analysis I was intending for the Friday close; The opportunity had build up in Gold quickly.

 

The London inner circle rumours were about the Royal Fib Push and one needs always play with cautious such murmurs. I was concern about price volatility and liquidity so choose to scale out my position to be flat.

 

For such opportunities, I believe its best to play the parabola effect of News in pure daytrading style. (what's driven up or down by News / Manipulation, comes to rest / test back area of origination (mostly as quickly but with the twists)

 

I was out of my long positions around 1560 area; so I was able to be nimble with momentum or this perceived / anticipated volatility (note my weekly chart showed price around channel high & target area above around 1584, refer to chart of previous post)

 

I made the first attempt to quickly, short after the first peak 1563 at 1561.9 (Trigger chart showed, Minor Div at Area) and got stopped out soon. Next push peak came to 1567 (no area, no price pattern only the pivot and I was happy to see it go). The final push brought the price to 1570 level; This time at area with minor double top pattern on my trigger chart and as the position started to pay off; I started to scale in and out, till the price reverted to its origination push area back to 1560.

 

Whenever I get out of major positions I take snapshots for my record/studies later (its a good way I have found to improve on my exits and also entries) Good to capture these moments for later reflection. I took few of the DayTrading style shorts, I sincerely hope they fill in the rest; To origination trades. Thats all explanation I can offer folks!

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Quick Update (Hopefully its on time for you)

Sorry I previously could not post any silver update as I didnot trade any silver, no sense in showing something which you donot do.

Thanks for your encoragement and Since I have, so here is the update

Note I am an novice with silver and its volatility, but analysed it same way with my charts & method. Note the Daily-Gaps further below and the Weekly one too. Next to weekly is the daily chart. Need I say more!

 

But remember; Nothing goes in a straight line;

Neither the Mouse to its Cheese nor the Price to its Target.

 

 

Enjoy Minoo

 

Note: The Broker made me click a few times ref margin ? ? Before I could execute first time in Silver contracts.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Haha minoo! Price is indeed a tricky thing and the idea should be to try to look at what it is trying to do overall. I have had some decent success in the past with Fibonacci confluence levels when markets are moving considerably. But do you think they work as well on mechanical changes in a market such as margin hikes? I'm not saying they shouldn't but am merely interested on your view.

[minoo 11]

Hey Negotiator

 

I have not experienced previously such margin hikes; Apart from when I started to swing trade and hold position overnight and when I change brokers (but less commision paid)

I can share with you some observation though:

Often market touches areas/targets of proximity in its present direction; irrespective of immediate positive / negative news or sudden events. Once this near price area has been reached / breached it may change, continue or correction may occur. Defined areas in my plan are mostly previous days/sessions highs / lows, Gaps & Fib ratios or measured alternates.

 

Note for Historical new Highs; Fib Projection Areas work well as targets with other relational charts to confirm Change or Continuation or Correction.

 

I use measured alternates and auto fib plotting on all my charts (white and magenta dots) The different legs of the market moves can be pretty well be anticipated with measured moves and fib ratios; Such areas of confluence are high probability zone for me to either use as swing targets or initiate day-trades

 

For Trend change or major correction I also use corelated or oppositely related instrument pair to confirm the respective target areas and Price Change.

Price is The King and There is nothing better in my opinion than price confirming price (intermarket relationship & patterns). Around changes Stock prices may lag futures contract (ie Last week Gold Future prices rised but Gold Stocks laged more than usual)

 

One have to be Open Minded in markets and be prepare all the time for whatever the move, Nothing works in the market all the time & neither I can be consistent at all times in my approach. But I find myself better prepared (checks) & governed with such areas / zones pre-marked or projected in my workspace. They provide me with price progession Grid and Boundary (Targets) to be mindfull about.

 

Check out the Euro-Dollar Inverse-Relation & Gold-Silver Co-Relational charts

Hope this helps

 

Trade Well

Minoo

[minoo 11]

These two articles may give you more insight into how other traders project prices, do parabolic trading and use intermarket relationships. (for Silver charts look at the previous two posts, I did update them)

 

Technical Look At Gold and Silver Parabolics (NYSE:GLD, NYSE:IAU, NYSE:SGOL, NYSE:GDX, NYSE:GDXJ, NYSE:SIVR, NYSE:SLV, NYSE:DBS, NYSE:AGQ, NYSE:ZSL, NYSE:UUP) | ETF DAILY NEWS

 

ETF Trading Gold Newsletter » Parabolic Moves are Only Temporary for Silver and Gold

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Here is Delta Report by Kirby, He uses Fibs, RSI and Trendlines in his Analysis

 

And also Delta (by Welles Wilder & Jim Sloman), which I simply use as S&R time levels (ie events).

 

I have his permission before I post here

 

Enjoy Minoo

11-05-11 Delta Timing Over-Under Metal Report.pdf

[minoo 11]

Hi, Here is Silver Day Trade Charts, I have tried to annotate the exit chart so you know the entry & exit logic

(I cannot recommend trading silver or not for you / anyone. You got to make your own calculation & analysis too)

It doesnot matter how much of good analysis you get

You need to know your own Big Picture as it develops (market mental map) to act on time & opportunity

I do my own analysis first and respect others too; Keep Open Mind in trading, Preference is fine but not BIAS, Patience is something I desire more off myself too.

 

Its a seperate account for Silver to suit the margin, volatile & my learning of this instrument. Play it safe or you pay for it.

Will Silver Spike and break lower overnight ? ?

 

No I am flat for swing positions for now

Yes, The Dollar trade was expectional opportunity but all in the Hindsight now;

Contarary to Public, Yes; But not Controversial to Self.

 

-Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Seasonal Enlightenment

 

Here is an excellent article by Sy Harding

Street Smart Report Online

 

I dont believe in any fix dates to be either in or out off market (swing style) but just as my charts indicates and anticipate the seasonal effect tighten stops for market to pick me out early.

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

S&P Gap Fill Trade

 

Here is an sample of S&P Gap fill trade, (1263.5 yesterday RTH session close)

As the market is extremely bearish waited for the retest with Divergence

 

I took this Counter Trend (normally would have passed) on strength of market internals data on positive side throughout the RTH session

(Note: UpVol > Dwn Vol and Increasing Issues > Decreasing Issues)

 

I also use S&P area & data as BigBrother and execute similar in NQ,

So went long NQ as well consecutively & managing the trade may scale in as it provides the opportunities towards the VWAP (mean reversion) not much time left for EOD

 

So far been Bearish throughout the summer on the indices and mostly out

 

Have a good weekend

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Here is another one, this time I used NYSE $Tick to exit after it consistently remain mostly above zero line.

(for $Tick & other Market Internals explanation refer to Tims thread link at end of thread)

 

No I donot trade ES all the time, I simply cannot do it consistently

I only know how to trade ES consistently when there is preference in Market Internals (MI) when non-price data shows preference, (ie $Tick, Upvol, DwnVol, Incresing / Decreasing Issues, Prog Buy/Sell aletrs plotted on left side of ES Chart)

 

For me without Market Internals preference its very difficult to trade ES; But when the floor/pit BIAS is indicative than mostly it results in TrendDays and its easy to DayTrade ES and the eminis than. Markets trend around 30% or less so I trade ES mostly on such days first as daytrade than may keep trades as swing, if MI develops more positive or negative BIAS.

 

Other times I play ES is when there is good breadth between globex only Hi and Low (Pre RTH) or When it becomes evident with early MI readings that Gap fill is an good possibility. I prefer to scalp other eminis (NQ) on basis of MI and ES price direction & slope. But will avoid trading ES if Market Internal Preference is lacking.

 

If you are new than I suggest look into the thread by Steve46, Ideas for struggling traders.

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/4333-ideas-struggling-traders.html

 

There are excellent threads here on TL for $Tick, and other Market Internals stuff, please use search feature

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-internals/4299-tutorial-nyse-ticks-2.html

 

Market Internals - Traders Laboratory Forums

 

Last Fri 17June ES chart has far too many things evident with the Hindsight view; Why I pulled or Trigger into Trade from what I can remember is I got sound-alerted from $Tick chart hitting -1200 level. I am not sure what other things appealed to me in real time than. There were too many expiries so normally I am cautious to trade those days

 

With the hindsight you can see the below in the 17 June ES Chart above

Historical Gap had filled solid orange line (my previous exit point) Double divergence and Doji bar (on price progression chart middle-one)

Have a look at how the other Market Internal (MI) chart lines shows the hook up and down (ie UpVol hook up and DownVol Hook down, etc)

Lastly the minute chart (right side) shows WRB target exhaution price bar with subchart indicating Volume Spike & OBV (black line & orange dots length 3 period OBV) right at the botton (than OBV Hooked right up, sorry the obv-hook had not plotted yet in chart when I placed the orders or snapped the above chart)

 

I have a eye-ball routine to monitor / scan my charts and have place things in corresponding locations so can get the view of things together which matters

Routines are always from current 'Price to Counter-clock' and from 'Price to Clock-wise' TFT scans. I have two 24" TFT the other one I use for directly related or oppositely related instrument (Price to confirm price based on intermarket relations) The other monitor only needs clock wise eye scan routine. Also as market progresses I mark the chart of the live happenings (trendlines, break levels, patterns, price bar pivot antcipation, confluence of areas, etc) this helps me to be interactive and act on time rather than miss or be late with analysis of right side happenings.

In short I use Routine and Process & interact with live price and non-price data to trade the eminis successfully. I sometimes squawk in my mind this keeps me focus.

 

Hope this helps

 

Enjoy Minoo

 

Thanks for the link, Pl. also refer this new thread. Thanks Tim

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-articles/10111-breadth-ad-line-tick-trin-how.html

Edited June 21, 2011 by minoo

[minoo 11]

Fruitful but challenging day to trade but with Patience and Market Internals help one could pick the moments

 

Today was mixed Market Internal (MI) day and difficult day to trade at times slow and volatile both

 

Mixed in my book means: Even though Declining issues > Increasing Issues and Down Vol > Up Vol, so pressure is presumed to the downside; But $Tick started to kick and trade above Zero line and also several hits pass +1200 levels. Market was able to trade up close the 20th June gap at 1273.75 and almost close todays Gap (ticks shy of Gap at 1279.50, todays session high was 1279.25)

 

As the MI pressure was to the down side I faded the +1200 $tick levels

Second time fade was when +1200 tick level and also 20th June Gap filled at 1273.75 with Vol spike bottom right of second chart

Refer to the first two charts (Note the $Tick is top left of chart)

 

After Sell programs kick in at support (Orange fib line) But the market failed to lead lower so I establish long after some tape flow and buying tails were evident & scale into positions almost till todays Gap fill target level. Refer to the last two charts

 

I broke quite a few Guidelines in my book though, was difficult day and should have close shop atleast on time. But Traded longer than I should have and took more trades than I normally do; Plus kept playing the ES instead of NQ & too many scalps. So no trading for me tomorrow.

 

Ok enjoy, hope it helps

 

Trade Well

Minoo

[minoo 11]

An Excellent Article: (Good Educational Value, absolutely worth reading)

 

By Gary Savage

 

Gold Scents: SIGN OF THE BEAR

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

My Weekend Exit, again used $Tick to tighten stops to get out, a long boring day but very rewarding, Note the 31 May Gap fill is at 1338.50 normally I attempt to play on when Gap fill target are near. At time of posting its still couple of ticks around the exit level. Market continues more often than not.

 

Enjoy the Weekend Guys

Minoo

[minoo 11]

Road to Nowhere Dated: 11/11/11

 

Bear leads road to no where, over 13 years and we are around the same spot 1300 (S&P500)

From March 2000 Hi to March 2009 Low, 61.8% retrace is around 1300 Mark

 

Put up an monthly chart of your favorite US stock indices and see where the prices were 13 years ago and now

 

An excellent article by Kevin McElroy

What You Have to Know About Bear Markets - www.wyattresearch.com

 

Enjoy Minoo

[bobcollett 10]

Road to Nowhere Dated: 11/11/11

 

Bear leads road to no where, over 13 years and we are around the same spot 1300 (S&P500)

From March 2000 Hi to March 2009 Low, 61.8% retrace is around 1300 Mark

 

Put up an monthly chart of your favorite US stock indices and see where the prices were 13 years ago and now

 

An excellent article by Kevin McElroy

What You Have to Know About Bear Markets - www.wyattresearch.com

 

Enjoy Minoo

 

Hi Minoo

Kevin McElroy's article makes me wonder, is it easier to trade a bull market than a bear / sideways market?

I would welcome thoughts on this.

I think it is much easier to trade a bull market

Therefore I should be trading commodities and not stocks!!!!

And by this implication, definitly NOT the Index.

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

Road to Nowhere Dated: 11/11/11

 

Bear leads road to no where, over 13 years and we are around the same spot 1300 (S&P500) .....

When someone bought or sold matters. Not where the market was as some random point in the past.

 

Me, I am a day trader so I care only where each day trades, range/volatility wise.

[minoo 11]

Bob The best way I can help is with an simple system example

 

(Sun this is mostly to do with Investment or Pension related, Day trading (prefer Swing) is I do when I need to hedge my current running positions so do not loose out much when market is correcting or insured if correction may lead to change)

 

Using your Big Picture scenario & analysis one can decide which Assets they would like to have exposure to for both Bull and Bear style of trading. Intermarket Relation may get disrupt due to world geo political news situations but eventually they will correct (to mean or trend direction)

 

I refer you to this recent article from Doug Short

Current Market Snapshot

So it seems S&P & Indices are just in Positive Territory, Big Picture is very important

Atleast every other week one must study their monthly charts of different assests (Indices, Commodities, Agriculture, Energy, 'Dollar & Bonds & Yields', etc)

 

Dollar mostly inversely proportional to other Assets, if you find an asset rising or stable when Dollar is strong than you have found possible Bull Streak Assest

 

Currently the Precious Metal Sector shows that streak, but with on going Bull Phase one struggles to step in as prices are already high. One needs to average-in this Bull Asset during intermediate correction phase and scale-in during the Bull resumption phase.

 

In your system you need to have your charts for the big picture and intermediate cycle as an investor and do things accordingly per your defined system; Where I fail is when I let news or media and current affairs influence (delay) my decisions and not use appropriate size stops according to present volatility. What I have found is price (weekly & monthly) already reflects the current world and political condition, so must not on top of that doubt what I hear (news) and simply act to adhere objectively per what I see in my defined system

 

Bobs Bull Bear System

I will futher simply the above monthly chart for yourself and define a Simple Bull / Bear System using readily available indicators

In the Below chart we have now two things only:

Moving Ave (Exponential 13) any other of your short term line)

RSI (or any of your favorite oscillator MACD, Stoch, CCI, etc)

 

Short System Description

Two consecutive closes above or below EMA 13, with RSI cross at 50 confirming.

 

(One can add to the above for accumulation, when price nears or touches the EMA (intermediate correction) and close above it, with RSI > 50)

 

Refer to chart or create your own and see so far has the system tested fine and what is happening currently ? ?

 

Note The current month is still in running & also note the Gaps (orange line) above and below.

 

Hope this helps (sorry in a hurry to go out with the kids no time to proof read now)

 

Regards Minoo

[minoo 11]

Yes, You can apply the same system on Gold too, with a little bit of modification for the parabolic rise and intermediate cycle support

 

I would add / replace here is type of Moving Average to accomodate the volatility and parabolic nature of the instrument.

Intead of EMA use or add Weighted MA (dashed line) refer to the chart

This will show better lows of the Intermediate-Cycle at the Weighted MA.

 

RSI has OB and OS levels set to 80 and 20 respectively

 

Another Tip: During Volatility be particularly aware of outside or inside Bars (refer previous chart to see them at the volatile phase) as you all want to partake in the Bull phase (for accumulation) than first lot at cross of the hi of the inside bar.

 

Trend

Yes this are monthly charts so higher-high and lower-high of each Bar could be consider in your trend definition (Remember, This is for your Big Picture) So when you get lower highs and lower lows above your line than you know what to do (lock in profit, stop out, etc action) a good addition to your system!

 

Its just past midnight here in London, So Good night to you All Folks

 

Enjoy Minoo

Edited November 13, 2011 by minoo