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[Wolfhound 10]

We had a good rise today. Not quite to 4000, but the day is long.

I need to review all of this at the weekend. Sometimes I feel that I am getting away from the rules of this, and sometimes I feel 99% in tune. Anyway, here is the review of what I saw today.

 

1. We opened with a straight breakout beyond the highs. After a double top, we moved back to the opening lows. We broke down to yesterday morning's high, and retraced for a short. This failed with a double bottom, and reversal.

 

2. First retracement after the line break. The long makes it back to the highs.

 

3. This is a demand line break off a high, with a nice neat retracement. These are the kind that I like, and feel comfortable taking. Just gotta improve on the rest now.

 

4. Missed a long here on the treble bottom. I was still thinking about the short that didn't go anywhere. There is a further opportuniy for a long in the next retracement above this.Need to stay awake to get the better entries, instead of later retracements.

 

5. We have a short here as we get close to 11am. The day has been up since 15 minutes after the open, so it may go nowhere. Was expecting the mornings rise to continue to 4000, but I guess traders need a coffee break. So do I.

[Wolfhound 10]

The zombie traders were out again last night to move us up close to 4000. As the sunlight fills the day, they have retreated back to the shadows, and we are currently sitting at the mid 80's. Its left to the morning traders to finish the job and make the headlines.

 

If we turn down, there seems to be support around 971, which was hit several times yesterday, so any move below that could give us the possibility of a short, but with 15 or so points between here and 71, we would hope to get into a short much earlier.

 

I will try to follow the rules today, and see things as they happen. One trade at a time, and no bias.

[Wolfhound 10]

Today was okay. The first short would have stopped out with a tight stop, and this type of behaviour is one of the reasons that I am not yet comfortable with going live. In the morning before the market had opened, I actually wrote in my notepad a list of 5 things to research over the weekend, directly related to this type of stop/exit. Thats for the weekend, now for today.

 

1. Short after retracement. We had failed to reach the highs on the open, and while we may only get to the lows at 71, it is worth a shot. After a short fall it pulls back up to below 50% of the fall, but not breaking the swing high. This type of movement is a killer for tight stops. The next retraement breaks the supply line, so I can sometimes be caught between a long, or a short because of the rejection of the 50%. Ultimately we fall all the way to the potential support, that we noticed before the open at 71.

 

2. The higher low at the 71 area, along with what looked like the breaking of a steeper supply line, led me to put a long on here. It didn't get far, and in reality the breaking of the fall is a wandering messy affair, and not a nice quick turn around. A lot of trading to get through around this area. I will wait and see which way it goes after everyone has finished at this price.

 

3. We were in a range for a while at a point where we anticipated possible resistance. So when it broke above the range I marked a long on the retracement. It made a modest rise.

[Wolfhound 10]

We dropped to the next level yesterday and overnight. We came to a halt around the Tuesday highs, but if these do not hold then we have large drops between potential support areas.

 

I am taking today off, so I won't be watching the live prices today. Good luck to everyone who is trading. I'll be back later.

[Wolfhound 10]

Since it has gone a bit quiet here over the past month, I will continue posting in the journal at ET, and stop double posting here. Bye for now.

[Toosday 10]

Wolf, thanks for letting us know about the status of your posts. I have enjoyed them. I would like to keep following your journey and took a quick look at ET to find your journal. I was unsuccessful. I was hoping you could post or PM your ET name and or link so that I may continue to follow.

 

Regards,

 

Toos

[Wolfhound 10]

Hi Toos, my name on ET is BonScott. Wolfhound was already taken. The thread is in the journal section.

[eminiman414 10]

How's everything going?

[Gringo 10]

How's everything going?

 

Niko has gone to Tibet to become a monk. He's searching for the zen in him.

 

Gringo

[Niko 10]

Niko has gone to Tibet to become a monk. He's searching for the zen in him.

 

Gringo

 

Hey Emini and G, here from Tibet, things look a lot better. I have been going through market history starting in 2010, is a ever improving and learning process, after 3 months of back testing the system, there is always 1 correction that requires me to go back and re test the whole thing from the beginning, but there is always 1 little detail I was missing that I am not missing anymore, so is an ever growing task.

 

At first I was frustrated, but then I realized that that is necessary in order to know what to expect from the market and a lot of my early mistakes where explained and are continuously being found so I am happy with how things are going.

 

I had to cash in on other investments in order to stay afloat, but I am still pushing forward with this.

 

How are you guys doing.

[fxpaulm 10]

It has been awhile since my last post and during that time I have tried to get a better grasp of SLA and how to effectively use it in my preferred market, forex. Along the way, I got sidetracked and turned in multiple directions just trying to re-invent the wheel, but I always tried to get back to SLA.

 

One problem was the lines, hard to believe straight lines would be so much trouble, and exactly how to best use them. There are several examples on the SLA thread where the lines are skintight and others where the lines provide some room. I’ve decided to use the DL/SL that give price room, but not so much that they do not serve their purpose. I am using the approach that Db spoke of when he wrote

 

“For those of you who are taking this out for a test drive, if you are trying to catch every twist and turn, you should compare your results with what you might achieve if you were to give price its head and just flow with the major shifts between demand and supply. While on the face of it you may be "giving up" points by not keeping your DLs and SLs skin-tight, you won't be getting chopped up and frustrated, either.”

 

I also will be using mainly daily or four-hour charts to trade from because this gives me plenty of room to catch the runners and fits my trading best.

 

Now that that is out of the way I will post charts as I see them and trade according to the rules of SLA.

[fxpaulm 10]

Here is the Pound on the 4-hour that has broken SL.

[fxpaulm 10]

Here is the Nzd/Jpy chart where the SL is broken on Daily. The green dot is where a buy order is and I've included the 4-hour chart. Here I can see that price is approaching the low again and price broke a DL not pictured. I am basing trade on Daily for this pair and would still buy as long as the low was not broken because then I would just fan the SL and there would be no buy.

[fxpaulm 10]

Here is a trade set-up in the Aud/Usd 4-hour. The chart is self explanatory.

[fxpaulm 10]

The Nzd/Jpy is a good example of the SLA keeping me out. While the SL was broken, price never came back to trade in the trough and the long trade was never triggered.

[fxpaulm 10]

The Aussie trade was entered and it profit was based on how one managed it. If I waited for DL to be broken, the trade would have b/e at best or lost 1 -2 pips, (DL is not pictured). However, trading is not static and is extremely fluid. Taken into account the trading range between .9387 - .9372 and seeing price reject strongly when it approached it again, it would have been justified to exit the long or move SL up very close. Another thing to have been aware of is that price ret. 50% of the recent down leg. If your big on confluence, then this would be another factor to exit, (the 50% ret. is not pictured, but is clearly evident).

[fxpaulm 10]

The Pound broke the SL, ret., and fell again, but not making new low. It now looks to be forming a hinge and we wait to see which way it is going to go.

[PrymeTyme 10]

Hey Emini and G, here from Tibet, things look a lot better. I have been going through market history starting in 2010, is a ever improving and learning process, after 3 months of back testing the system, there is always 1 correction that requires me to go back and re test the whole thing from the beginning, but there is always 1 little detail I was missing that I am not missing anymore, so is an ever growing task.

 

At first I was frustrated, but then I realized that that is necessary in order to know what to expect from the market and a lot of my early mistakes where explained and are continuously being found so I am happy with how things are going.

 

I had to cash in on other investments in order to stay afloat, but I am still pushing forward with this.

 

How are you guys doing.

 

 

if ya trading, its a never ending task.. there is always something wich could be mastered better.. but the question is ...

 

are u reverse optimizing ? ... (dead end cycle)

 

u know , u cant be correct all the time.. but if u have a sound knowledge and a plan.. which in the end is profitable.. and gives u the feeling of consistence.. ie.. making profits in the long haul.. there is no need.. to improve every entry / decision...

 

... even if u backtest .. and see something which isnt quite what u are looking for.. ie.. it worked X times but then all of a sudden it doesent seem to fit in your perspective..ie. doesent work out as expected.... so what .. anything can happen!

 

even more so.. if u trade live and make decisions.. as it happens... u can only make decions based on your experience.. but keep in mind.. that anything can happen.. both ways.. either propell ur profits.. or.. ( a small) loss ...

 

u need to find peace with it... else u r running in circles

[PrymeTyme 10]

i encourage everyone to set your focus on the extremes..

 

for example.. if price trades towards a "resistance" level.. what could possible happen ?

 

right

 

either price reverses or its breaks out... thats all there is to it..

 

now , we all have been there .. as soon as u enter a reversal trade.. based on a broken DL and a retr. which even forms a LH .. but price pretty much goes nowhere.. just drifts along your entry at best... most get nervous... and are like WTF...

 

but u can give price some room at the extremes.. even if it goes the otherway at worst u make a small loss.. so what...

 

u will get a chance for a re entry eitherway.. ie. a breakout+ pullback .. or a rev.

and if the next entry again doesnt work out (fakeout)(shakeout).. so what.. 2 small losses in a row... oh my..

 

just step aside.. and wait till u get a clear view... no one has to be in the markets all the time... wait till everything is in its place..

[k p 10]

i encourage everyone to set your focus on the extremes..

 

I too am seeing this more and more every day. This is of course what is in the AMT file that Db provides, but over the past few months, I have somehow lost this critical part. So as you say, focus on trading here, give it a bit more room here, and its a winning strategy.

 

Hi Niko... I'm eager to see you posting again!

[k p 10]

i encourage everyone to set your focus on the extremes..

 

May I ask how you're defining a resistance level or where you consider extremes to be?

 

I start now with the previous day high and low, and then the overnight high and low. Finally, I will look at the opening range, call it the first few minutes and see areas where price is unable to go above or below, but the first ones mentioned carry so much more weight as I'm seeing since I'm finally getting down to studying old charts.

[eminiman414 10]

Hey Emini and G, here from Tibet, things look a lot better. I have been going through market history starting in 2010, is a ever improving and learning process, after 3 months of back testing the system, there is always 1 correction that requires me to go back and re test the whole thing from the beginning, but there is always 1 little detail I was missing that I am not missing anymore, so is an ever growing task.

 

At first I was frustrated, but then I realized that that is necessary in order to know what to expect from the market and a lot of my early mistakes where explained and are continuously being found so I am happy with how things are going.

 

I had to cash in on other investments in order to stay afloat, but I am still pushing forward with this.

 

How are you guys doing.

 

I'm doing great. Just about ready to start forward testing.

[PrymeTyme 10]

May I ask how you're defining a resistance level or where you consider extremes to be?

 

I start now with the previous day high and low, and then the overnight high and low. Finally, I will look at the opening range, call it the first few minutes and see areas where price is unable to go above or below, but the first ones mentioned carry so much more weight as I'm seeing since I'm finally getting down to studying old charts.

 

First of all , iam not saying that this is a winning strategy !! .. but a frame work where u can start to build a plan based upon...

 

yea , i guess its not the answer u where looking for.. but noone can help u find ur answer of beeing profitable/consistant/ and comfortable trader ,thats all upon u!!!!

 

Extremes are , support/resistance.. or AMT wise the outer limits where price gets rejected as unfair.. (high or low)

 

that is..(Sup/Res.) where price reversed more then one time.. it can be a straight horizontal line.. or a diagonal line.. ie- a channel.. a channel is nothing more then a diagonal trading range...

 

an extreme can happen during an intraday session aswell . like u mentioned..

 

but in the end an extreme is an extreme no mather what timeframe u r looking at....

 

 

u know what i mean ?

 

 

 

cheers

[k p 10]

u know what i mean ?

 

cheers

 

Yup.. totally know what you mean, was just curious if you were doing something different than the things I pointed out. Thanks for the reply!

[Niko 10]

I too am seeing this more and more every day. This is of course what is in the AMT file that Db provides, but over the past few months, I have somehow lost this critical part. So as you say, focus on trading here, give it a bit more room here, and its a winning strategy.

 

Hi Niko... I'm eager to see you posting again!

 

 

Hey KP, sorry for the late reply, I will start posting as soon as I have something to post about, so far I have found that some of my hypotheses where wrong and that was leading me in the wrong path, but finding that has opened a lot of new things that I am implementing in the plan, not sure how others do it, but is taking more time that I initially expected, but that is OK, I will get there some time, thanks for the Douglas book again it has been a great read.