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[Wolfhound 10]

I hope you understood the AMT implications of your first chart.

 

Yes I did Db. I consider myself an advanced beginner by now. I see a lot more than I did before, but believing it all and putting it into profitable practice is a longer step. For me it is like being able to understand a lot of words of a foreign language, but being unable to make too many complete sentences. Eventually I will be writing poetry with this.

 

Aside from AMT, though, there were almost a dozen retracements on the way down, beginning with 0935. You'll want to look at which you didn't take and why.

 

Okay, I'll keep an eye on all the retracements, long or short on the charts.

Edited July 10, 2014 by Wolfhound

[Wolfhound 10]

Today we had a few moves up and down, but stayed well within yesterday's range. After the previous big fall we seemed to be revolving around a mean close to the open price for the morning.

 

1. On the open we fell slightly and then moved up above 76. I put a long on when we retraced to 50% of the rise and turned back up. This failed quickly, although we made a treble bottom soon after and moved back up.

 

2. From point 1, we moved up and turned at the 50% point of the fall from yesterday, and moved back down to the opening lows. After a retracement I placed a short. This has a risk of entering at the bottom of a possible range, but for the moment the price moved lower.

 

3. This is my first retracement after the supply line break. We are at the 50% point of the previous fall, so we may reverse or go nowhere, but in the end it moved up to previous highs.

 

4. The demand line has broken and we are at the morning highs, but it is late in the morning, so nothing may happen with this one. Ultimately it breaks the LSH, but not the morning high a few minutes before.

[Wolfhound 10]

We have had more movement after the close than we had during the day. After reaching a high of 91 before the close, we have fallen fairly consistantly, to come close to the swing low at 41. If we go below this, we give back our July gains and are back into the congested area of June on the 60 min chart attached.

 

I'm not sure what such a big overnight drop will bring, because I don't see that very often. Obviously I will watch for the 41 point if we keep going down. The daily channel bottom is about 789 at the moment. I will be surprised if we bounce back up off 41, but will still look for the usual retracement entries.

[DbPhoenix 42]

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[Wolfhound 10]

1. Well I know nothing about predictions. The price went through 41 before the open and then decided to turn around and go back up. I marked a long on the retracement here.

 

2. We have a retracement here so I marked a short in, which fails quickly on the next bar which makes a slightly higher low than the previous swing low.

 

3. The next entry is a long after the higher low, supply line break, and retracement. This one moved up above our opening highs, and eventually onwards.

[Wolfhound 10]

Yesterday we hit a low of 31 and a high of 89 with a midpoint at 60. Overnight we tested 889 again, and have since fallen off to 878.

 

So, we have a high at 89, and from the previous day at 91, so this area may have some resistance. Beyond that we have 900 and 918 above it.

 

We have a recent swing low at 66, and again at 31. The price may decide to test these limits or just stay within the borders. Wait and see.

[Wolfhound 10]

Tired today, and not trading well. Stayed online mostly to watch, but wasn't on the ball, especially at the open. The price could not break above the Thursday highs in the morning, but we did have some nice clean entries for trades.

 

1. After the open I was too slow to get onto a short on a rejection of the previous highs. I have marked it in as one that I should have taken.

 

2. Again there are retracements here for a short, but didn't take it.

 

3. This one I was awake for. The higher low retracement after the supply line break.

 

4. The demand line is broken after a failure and lower high at the opening highs (also yesterday's highs). A good place for an SLA short.

 

5. The price made it back to 50% of the rise, before turning around for a long opportunity. Again, this only made it to the highs before halting.

[Wolfhound 10]

After speanding Friday morning within the previous day's range, we broke out in the afternoon, and moved up to close near 900. Since then we have returned to the previous highs around 918, and it wouldn't take much effort to break through from here.

 

The high of our daily channel is around 970, and if we get there, some brave souls may push for 4000. If we fall at the open, and get below 900, then we start to move towards previous congestion, and further swing lows. Also 50% from the lows of Friday is at 895.

[Wolfhound 10]

1. This one is a bit of a mess. Probably should have shorted on the first retracement, and a bit reluctant to enter because of the double bottom. Either way it didn't get far before turning.

 

2. The retracment short here failed on the next bar.

 

3. The retracement is a long way from the lows, but it also bounces off the 50% point of the rise, and so a long is attempted, which makes it up to the highs at 18.

 

4. We didn't make it past the highs so I entered a short on the first retracement. This one went nowhere, could be a difficult day today.

 

5. We finally edged past the highs and I thought that this would be a good place for a long. Maybe a little to early and too greedy with this one.

 

From here on I just observed. We didn't make it below the 50% area, so that would indicate strength, but we have also stayed within a narrow range. Better to wait for a breakout in either direction.

 

6. Finally a proper breakout. Long marked on the first retracement.

[Wolfhound 10]

We eventually reached a high of 31 during the afternoon, before falling towards the close. We still stayed above the previous highs at 18 for the evening, and we have tested that level again in the early morning, reaching a low of 16 before turning up again over the last few hours.

 

It looks like our early limits will be between 16 and 31, and after these, look for previous areas of interest as we fall, or watch the channel highs as we rise.

Edited July 15, 2014 by Wolfhound

[Wolfhound 10]

Not an easy day today. It looked to me like we were going to revolve around the mean after failing to break out of either end of the overnight range, but we eventually fell below the range. The fall from the high was nearly 40 points, but it looks hard to gain even a fraction of that unless I get better at this.

 

1. After the open we moved slowly upwards to the highs and eventually passed through, for what looked like a good breakout. But we turned straight away, so I looked for a short on the first retracement. This made it back to the mean of the overnight range, which is one of the expected outcomes of a failure to break out of the range.

 

2. There is a second short here on a retracement, but it fails quickly.

 

3. Here we have a breakout below the range, and we could put a short on a retracement, but this was never triggered. When the price moved back inside the range I thought we might be going back to the mean or above.

 

4. This breakout has a retracement that fails to get back into the range. This is a place for a short, although we may be on a day that goes nowhere. In the end it moved down well below the overnight range.

 

5. The recent supply line has broken, and we have a retracement for a long. This died before it started.

 

6. We have a higher low here and a possible long, but we are now after 11am, and the power of the moves may becoming weaker.

[Wolfhound 10]

After testing the highs yesterday, we fell down to 880, before rising, leaving us with a day that ultimately revolved around a mean of 907.

 

Overnight we moved back up to reclaim all the losses for the day, and then expand into new highs. This wide ranging behaviour during the "close" has happened a few times recently, and movements of 30 or more points have been seen. The markets are being affected by happenings outside of US hours.

 

The high currently sits at 940, and yesterday's low is at 880. It would be quite easy for today to remain well within yesterday's 60 point range. Still waiting for that 4000 though.

[Wolfhound 10]

We tried a feeble breakout 20 minutes after the open, and that was it for the day. The rest of the time we marched downwards, but it was difficult to get a good clean SLA entry without the stops being trggered. A REV entry at the highs would have worked, but I do not have confidence in them at the moment.

 

1. This is the first retracement after the opening fall, so it is an opportunity for a short. These can be a mess this close to the open, and we have a quick 5 point fall, followed by a return to the trigger point.

 

2. We have a higher low here (which is around yesterday's open), but I didn't put a long in because I felt that I would be drawing a very steep supply line to make the retracement valid. Its a miss of a trade, but I don't mind missing that one.

 

3. Now we I thought we were going to have a breakout, but it turned before I had finished thinking about what to do. Interestingly the retracement made it to 50% of the rise before turning up again. After this I just watched it move up and down, waiting for something to happen.

 

4. We broke the demand line after failing yet again at the highs, so I was waiting for a retracement for a short. I sold at the low, which is never good. Looking at this again, we are at the mean so it is not a strong place for a fall. A line break and retracement closer to the highs would be much better.

 

5. I watched the price fall, and eventually when it had a big drop below the opening lows, I took the supply line break and higher low as an opportunity for a long. It fell without breaking the swing lows, so eventually it went up, but we would need a very wide stop to make that one work.

[Toosday 10]

Not an easy day today. It looked to me like we were going to revolve around the mean after failing to break out of either end of the overnight range, but we eventually fell below the range. The fall from the high was nearly 40 points, but it looks hard to gain even a fraction of that unless I get better at this.

 

1. After the open we moved slowly upwards to the highs and eventually passed through, for what looked like a good breakout. But we turned straight away, so I looked for a short on the first retracement. This made it back to the mean of the overnight range, which is one of the expected outcomes of a failure to break out of the range.

 

2. There is a second short here on a retracement, but it fails quickly.

 

3. Here we have a breakout below the range, and we could put a short on a retracement, but this was never triggered. When the price moved back inside the range I thought we might be going back to the mean or above.

 

4. This breakout has a retracement that fails to get back into the range. This is a place for a short, although we may be on a day that goes nowhere. In the end it moved down well below the overnight range.

 

5. The recent supply line has broken, and we have a retracement for a long. This died before it started.

 

6. We have a higher low here and a possible long, but we are now after 11am, and the power of the moves may becoming weaker.

 

Wolf,

 

Thanks for posting. As a clue for Tuesday I used the 75 min chart to evaluate that on an AMT basis we were at the top end of a channel. This allowed me to take a chunk out of the down move after the failure of the push upwards. I thought that this may help. The same play was not as profitable today.

[Wolfhound 10]

Yesterday we have a 20 point range during regular hours, and 30 points overnight and the morning. Someone is busy playing this after hours.

 

We have a high way up at 941, and a low at 894. Since hitting the low a few hours ago, we have moved up steadily and are heading towards the 50% point at 917. Above that there is a high at 21 before we move into yesterday's daytime price movements. Below 895, our next major low is at 880.

[Wolfhound 10]

Wolf,

 

Thanks for posting. As a clue for Tuesday I used the 75 min chart to evaluate that on an AMT basis we were at the top end of a channel. This allowed me to take a chunk out of the down move after the failure of the push upwards. I thought that this may help. The same play was not as profitable today.

 

Thanks. I need to trust the AMT more when I see it. I have noticed that I seem to favour at horizontal highs and lows over the sloping channels. Practise and repetition is needed.

[Wolfhound 10]

Today was okay. We didn't move far in the morning, but there are a few entries that work. Its always an unknown which will work when the trades are triggered.

 

1. First retracement on move up from open. This long made a few points.

 

2. If the first one was missed there is now a second retracement for a long. This failed quickly.

 

3. Demand line break with retracement for a short. This one also failed. It only made it down to the 50% point since the open, before turning up and stopping out.

 

4. A nice neat supply line, with a break and retracement for a long. I like this one, because a stop below the recent swing low is only a few points away.

 

It looks like we have a morning where the price is going nowhere for now. We are currently revolving around our overnight high of 21, waiting for something to happen.

Eventually we have a break down while I am typing up this and thinking that nothing is happening.

[Wolfhound 10]

Another day with large movement yesterday, and again after hours. I had given up watching before the real action happened. Overall we had a high of 927, down to a low of 854, and we are currently back at the mean point of 891.

 

Our longer term trend is upwards, but we have fallen below the mean of the channel, and may be heading towards the bottom. The short term trend is upwards overnight, and the line is unbroken for most of the night and morning. I often get fooled by an overnight rise such as this, leading me to think we will have a positive day. However, usually these predictions are wildly wrong, so I will wait and see what the market does, and try follow it as best I can.

[Wolfhound 10]

I found it difficult today. We had a hinge for quite a while, before it looked like breaking out, then just meandered into a day spent around the mean. On these days when nothing happens for a long time I can miss the trends by not expecting things to happen.

 

1. Here I was thinking that we must exit the hinge at some point. The failure upwards led me to try a short which went nowhere. Not the best trade in the world, and sometimes I feel that when I have waited a while, I need to put a trade on the board. Maybe there are some days where my journal should show no trades.

 

2. The supply line is broken with a higher low than 30 minutes earlier. The long is not the breakout point, and it just stays well within the current range.

 

3. There is a line break with retracement here, but at this stage I figured that I was not calling things right today, so I did not take it.

[Wolfhound 10]

Long term we are still on an uptrend, and have made several new highs over the last few weeks. Currently we are near those highs again, so we will watch for the reaction of price to that point if we get there.

 

From Thursday night through Friday early morning to the close, we retraced all of the fall that we had made, and moved from a low of 854 to come close to the highs at 941. 50% of the rise is at 895, which is approx the mean of Friday mornings action.

 

Our overnight high is at 936, and we had a low at 921 which is been tested as I write this. If this low fails we have a certain amount of lows and congestion areas, but the main low is at 854, a long way off. Obviously if we break above the highs we have a potential resistance point at 941.

[Wolfhound 10]

1. Looking on the 15 second chart I could have entered a short somewhere above 21, and before we reached the overnight low. I guess this would be a right tick retracement. Instead I waited for a breakout below the overnight low, which never happened.

 

2. This is a long back into the range after a line break. I had no high hopes of this one when we reached the and turned down again, but it went up to close to the highs before stopping. Not a good trade really. Should be looking for trades on the exit of the range, rather than inside it.

 

3. I have drawn the demand line, but did not take a short. I understand that there is a steeper demand line which is broken earlier with retracement, but I didn't take that.

 

4. Here I have a short on the exit from the range after a retracement, but maybe I should have had a long a few bars earlier. I guess this one is a bias for short, which should not come before the rules.

 

5. Could have taken a short around here. In my head we were starting to move into a tight range. Not a good one.

 

6. Line break with retracement. Went nowhere.

[k p 10]

3. I have drawn the demand line, but did not take a short. I understand that there is a steeper demand line which is broken earlier with retracement, but I didn't take that.

 

I was a bit frustrated by this exact same setup here! If the line is steeper, the break happens along with the RET for the short, which is a great trade, but of course with the DL drawn as is, you just have to watch price go down without you.

 

Yesterday was for sure tough!

[Wolfhound 10]

I was a bit frustrated by this exact same setup here! If the line is steeper, the break happens along with the RET for the short, which is a great trade, but of course with the DL drawn as is, you just have to watch price go down without you.

 

Yesterday was for sure tough!

 

I feel that it stems from a lack of rules. I need to be consistant in where I take the trades, but sometimes it is difficult. I am getting caught in 2 minds at times. That shows that I don't have it worked out properly. On the good days I think that I lnow what I'm doing, and on the bad ones I feel out of sync with the market.

[Wolfhound 10]

I didn't do much right today. Buy high, sell low mostly. Hope to improve on Wedensday.

 

1. After the open we tested the highs with a lot of overlapping bars. We then moved down to the opening lows. After making a double bottom with the opening lows we have a retracement for a long. Not my favorite place to enter. We are coming back into the opening range, and close to the mean. It moved up for a while, but the breakout of the range stalled at 53, and we returned to the opening range.

 

2. After breaking the demand line we retraced to 50% of the rise, and turned up. This is a point for a long, but in real time I was waiting to see if we were going to break the highs.

 

3. Long on the first retracement after the breakout. Going nowhere.

 

4. Having missed a good short yesterday by sticking to a wider demand line, I put a short on the retracement after the double top. This actually looks like doing neither one thing or the other. I need a break.

 

5. There is potential for a long here, with the supply line break and retracement, although we are quite near the highs. I definitely wasn't thinking short.

 

6. Around this area is where I am often in 2 minds. We have a retreacement for a short, which doesn't work, then a possible long. Still not sure with this kind of action.

[Wolfhound 10]

We are continuing our uptrend, which has been running since the middle of April on the daily chart. Our slow march to 4000 also continues. We currently have a high of 968. Just a small hop from here, a few extras bulls in the morning, and we'll make it.

 

After making new highs yesterday, we eventually retreated to the opening price when things settled down after the close. Speaking of the close, it looks like somebody thinks that trading after the close is a good place to make some money. We had some more big moves overnight, including a breakout to new highs. The overnight range is again bigger than the daytime range.

 

Above here, 68 is an obvious point to look for reactions in the morning, given that we are so close to it. Below we have congestion from yesterday around the mid 50's.