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[DbPhoenix 42]

See added notes, above.

[Niko 10]

 

Note, for example, how price behaves after it bounces off the midpoint at 1245 and breaks the SL. Thereafter is a higher low. If one entered off that, price would come back 1.5pts after the entry. If he exited and took the next test 8m later, price would come back only a half point below his entry. In either case, the recoil would be shallow. The message is the higher low, not the extent of the recoil after entry.

 

 

Although I understand the message regarding that my focus should be in price and where traders are unable to find sellers in the context of a forming uptrend, I have not been able to find the exact location of the bounce at 12:45, sorry.

 

 

Just remember to do your research in the same quarter. Applying results from the first or third quarter to summer trading is not likely to provide any information that will be widely applicable.

 

 

Yes, thanks, I am doing, I actually started with june 2011, and I was noticing how similar that month was, several days of ranges in the first hour, mostly between 10 and 13 pts. I will keep on characterizing and I will take the time of year into account as by now is obvious that there is some sort of seasonality in PA.

[Niko 10]

So after struggling for a couple of days below 800, seems like buyers are finally saying "enough" this morning, from 4:00 price has been falling from the top of the range to the bottom at 82 and just during the last hour an exploration poke for sellers below 82 seem to have failed for the moment.

 

If we manage to get below 82, the path through the 70s could require some effort, but below 72 there are not many trades all the way to 41, from there we would enter a new congestion area with an MP in 27 and a low in 15.

 

The other course of action could be staying inside this range above 82 and try a trip to 800 and perhaps above.

[Wolfhound 10]

The 800 level provided resistance today. I made 3 trades that didn't go anywhere. Looking forward to Wedensday.

 

1. Short on retracement after another rejection of 800. Stopped out on the next bar. I was aware that the swing high on the previous bar would be a better stop point.

 

2. Long on break of supply line with retracement. Stopped out a few minutes later.

 

3. We tried to go above 800 again, and I entered a short on the retracement after the failure. Stopped out as price continued upwards.

[Niko 10]

Now regarding plans for the day, I want to be able to keep my focus and avoid a range day, only enter when I see clarity regarding the trend and act decisively once that occurs, after 3 trades that go wrong, I see no reason for staying, first because they would occur because I was unable to detect the range and second because even if it isn't a range capital preservation is paramount in order to be able to start with focus the next day and take advantage of a better environment. But I will try to avoid trading if I cant see a clear trend forming.

[eminiman414 10]

Dropped below to 80 overnight, came back up and held at 86. We'll see what happens at the open if we continue down or if the area btw 80 and 83 holds and we begin a trip back towards 3800/03. Same levels remain on my radar.

[Wolfhound 10]

After hitting the high of 803 from Monday overnight, we quickly fell. We evenetually settled around 98, before a big fall to below Monday's lows. Will this double top be significant today?

 

A fall below 80 could take us a long way down,and looks more likely than a rally to the highs again given the morning action. We will soon find out when the money hits the market.

[Niko 10]

Today I realized that I am not ready for live trading, not only because of the way I feel regarding my trades, but because of the reason I feel like that.

 

I still have not done my homework and trying to accelerate things don't seem like the right thing to do.

 

I will then dedicate the next couple of weeks or months on getting my homework ready in order to give live trading a try again, but for now I am done.

 

Thank you db for all your help and understanding and thanks to all the other members who have been there.

[game 10]

Today I realized that I am not ready for live trading, not only because of the way I feel regarding my trades, but because of the reason I feel like that.

 

I still have not done my homework and trying to accelerate things don't seem like the right thing to do.

 

I will then dedicate the next couple of weeks or months on getting my homework ready in order to give live trading a try again, but for now I am done.

 

Thank you db for all your help and understanding and thanks to all the other members who have been there.

 

 

Yes there is homework to be done. Fortunately, day trading lends itself to simulation more than any other business. No reason to go live without rock solid prep by knowing one's market inside out. It's been very encouraging for me to see your progress. Keep at it Niko. You have the tools. Work on sharpening them. The reward will last a lifetime.

[boru 10]

Niko, sometimes we have to take a step back to continue to go forward. It may be good to take a break and let your feeling settle. You have been an example and role model to me with your hard work and willingness to share. Wishing you the best bo

[eminiman414 10]

Poked above 03 once yesterday and twice through the overnight so far getting up to as high as 06.50 before starting to move back down. Traveled as low as 94.25 so far putting us near the middle. 97 held through most of the overnight and is roughly the mean of the the price action from about 10-12 yesterday. Trading below the 80s the same price levels are on my radar as stated previously.

[Wolfhound 10]

We travelled back to the highs this morning, and then into a range. None of the trade that I tried worked, and after 3 trades I let it run through the range.

 

 

1. This one is a short after we turned at 800. I only lasted 1 bar.

 

2. Another attempt off the highs, again failed at the next bar.

 

3. This one comes after a failure at yesterday's highs. It lasted a bit longer, but eventually stopped out. That was it for the day, as we seemed to have settled into a range.

[Wolfhound 10]

We are still holding around the highs of the past few days.

We made an overnight high of 806, and since then have fallen back to the mean. An attempt to reach the highs a few hours ago failed, and has led to a sharp fall off in the early morning.

 

Yesterday I said that we might have a fall because of the way the overnight looked, and then we rose quickly on the open. Today I have no predictions. Just watching for the lows at 83 and 80, and the highs at 801 and 806.

[eminiman414 10]

Trades for the day. The goal of mine thru sim and then doing replays in the evening is getting used to sitting through opposing waves and dealing with whatever emotional responses that may come along with it. Essentially trying to desensitize myself. Today was a good example of sitting through some opposing movement. Given the last few days maybe in the future it would have been foolish to attempt this but again it's not about entries and exits for me now as it is sitting though opposing movement and dealing with the emotions that come with it. In essence this is sim so why play tight? I was playing a bit tighter because I want to see results and in seeing a certain result say OK it's time to put real money in this. It has been a lot more in and out, in and out then necessary and the reason being almost fearful of not obtaining a specific result that would prolong staying in sim mode and prolong making money. As DB has stated this is all about judging supply and demand as that is the law and in order to judge the balance or imbalance you need to witness both supply and demand. What I have been doing lately and I don't know if this is an AHA or I was attempting to do this but just not grasping it, is using the lines (sometimes drawn, sometimes not) for what they are for tracking supply and demand and not just looking at one side of the coin but then as we go, comparing the "lines" against other lines to sort of get a bigger picture. To catch the bigger trending moves you will undoubtedly have to sit through a "wave" in the opposite direction. So that has been my focus as of late (within reason).

[Wolfhound 10]

Today was okay, I was stopped out early in moves, and didn't re-enter. Seemed like a slow day, but it did have reasonable trends.

 

 

1. This one could have been placed a few bars earlier, and it wouldn't have stopped out so easily. I waited until the supply line was properly broken, but the higher low with the previous bars all closing at a high point should indicate a possible end to the downtrend.

 

2. Short on the lower high. Here a stop above the highs would have worked.

 

3. Long after the higher low retracement. Waited a long while for this one. It travelled up, eventually breaking the demand line for an exit.

[Wolfhound 10]

After a big fall yesterday we turned back upwards near the highs of March, and we are now approaching the mid point of the fall at 76.

 

Low to watch for at the bottom of the overnight range at 60, and yesterdays low at 40. We have various swing highs on the way up, before we get to the 800 level.

[Niko 10]

Boru and Game, thank you very much for your kind messages. I am aware of the road traveled and for that I thank Db and everyone who has been there to provide advice.

 

This experiment of going live provided me with the possibility of actually testing my emotions and my physical response to them as well as my ability to keep my mind focused on price, I went through multiple conditions and they were good at the beginning, but fear kept me from realizing my whole potential, and then they sucked at the end and eagerness kept me from not losing money. So now is time to work on that and also dedicate some time to characterize a whole year so I can see the bigger picture and don't get surprised so often.

Edited June 13, 2014 by Niko

[game 10]

Boru and Game, thank you very much for your kind messages. I am aware of the road traveled and for that I thank Db and everyone who has been there to provide advice.

 

This experiment of going live provided me with the possibility of actually testing my emotions and my physical response to them as well as my ability to keep my mind focused on price, I went through multiple conditions and they were good at the beginning, but fear kept me from realizing my whole potential, and then they sucked at the end and eagerness kept me from not losing money. So now is time to work on that and also dedicate some time to characterize a whole year so I can see the bigger picture and don't get surprised so often.

 

Some of my reflections on your live experiment.

 

1. You say fear,eagerness and other emotions kept you from realizing your whole potential. While I can understand how these emotions would dominate someone who has no method, you do have one. Yet you had fear. And so do I. But this fear is just a symptom. So what is the cause? Possible causes:

 

a. Lack of perspective on how the market's rhythm undergoes shifts. I know you said that you are going to characterize the market. But it may help to discuss this in more detail as it is vital. What exactly are you going to characterize. How will it help you in real time?

 

b. Lack of a dynamic position sizing strategy. I am assuming you were sizing all trades at 3 lots. Do you think given that the market offers opportunities in chunks, this is a good idea? I know your plan has a max daily loss limit. Does it also guide you on how to size based on either P&L or market conditions?

 

c. Reliance on just the retracement strategy. Yes it's theoretically possible to be patient and wait for a trending environment. But might having a fully fleshed out Reversal strategy actually increase overall patience because you are not bouncing between forcing one strategy all over the place and playing ultra defensive?

 

All this applies to me as well. Just using your experience to reflect on things I have to work on.

[Seeker 11]

Some of my reflections on your live experiment.

 

1. You say fear,eagerness and other emotions kept you from realizing your whole potential. While I can understand how these emotions would dominate someone who has no method, you do have one. Yet you had fear. And so do I. But this fear is just a symptom. So what is the cause? Possible causes:

 

a. Lack of perspective on how the market's rhythm undergoes shifts. I know you said that you are going to characterize the market. But it may help to discuss this in more detail as it is vital. What exactly are you going to characterize. How will it help you in real time?

 

b. Lack of a dynamic position sizing strategy. I am assuming you were sizing all trades at 3 lots. Do you think given that the market offers opportunities in chunks, this is a good idea? I know your plan has a max daily loss limit. Does it also guide you on how to size based on either P&L or market conditions?

 

c. Reliance on just the retracement strategy. Yes it's theoretically possible to be patient and wait for a trending environment. But might having a fully fleshed out Reversal strategy actually increase overall patience because you are not bouncing between forcing one strategy all over the place and playing ultra defensive?

 

All this applies to me as well. Just using your experience to reflect on things I have to work on.

 

Well to me it seems he doesn't have a method that he understands and has demo traded. Therefore he doesn't have confidence in it. Therefore he experiences fear. But the cause of his troubles is not the fear imo. It's that he doesn't have a proven stable method.

 

His entries are inconsistent. His management of trades is inconsistent (or needs revising). He keeps writing about things he'll work on, so it seems that he's still developing a method. No shame in that, and I hope he finds a good method.

 

It has been a good thread, one I've enjoyed reading, despite being frustrated with it.

[Niko 10]

 

a. Lack of perspective on how the market's rhythm undergoes shifts. I know you said that you are going to characterize the market. But it may help to discuss this in more detail as it is vital. What exactly are you going to characterize. How will it help you in real time?

 

 

Well, it was very frustrating to find myself in the environment of late may and early june without understanding that this PA is not that unusual. As I went through the same period in other years I realize that is something to be expected. Db has always said that one should backtest at least one year of market data, and I skipped that step, therefore was not ready for the different environments that might come. I know I have been at this for too long, but I have been sorting out other issues in the way so I might have not paid attention to lots of important things that happened around me, and characterization is helping me with that.

 

 

b. Lack of a dynamic position sizing strategy. I am assuming you were sizing all trades at 3 lots. Do you think given that the market offers opportunities in chunks, this is a good idea? I know your plan has a max daily loss limit. Does it also guide you on how to size based on either P&L or market conditions?

 

 

I have thought about this, like using my "full line" when conditions are favorable and going to the minimum when they are not. The thing I have not yet found out is how to discover this before the open, for example last two weeks have been very hard, but I still lack the understanding of how to detect preliminary conditions that can alert me that the morning will suck, I am looking for that kind of stuff during characterization.

 

 

c. Reliance on just the retracement strategy. Yes it's theoretically possible to be patient and wait for a trending environment. But might having a fully fleshed out Reversal strategy actually increase overall patience because you are not bouncing between forcing one strategy all over the place and playing ultra defensive?

 

I am totally aware of this, but I think one must make up his mind and decide under which conditions one doesn't want to trade, for example a 10 PT TR might not be that interesting to mess with, but that is something I have to solve. What I had planned was to start trading live one strategy and keep on developing other ones in demo, but I need to make the first part of it work and given that the RET strategy is the one that I am more familiar with, it was the one to start with.

[Niko 10]

Well to me it seems he doesn't have a method that he understands and has demo traded. Therefore he doesn't have confidence in it. Therefore he experiences fear. But the cause of his troubles is not the fear imo. It's that he doesn't have a proven stable method.

 

His entries are inconsistent. His management of trades is inconsistent (or needs revising). He keeps writing about things he'll work on, so it seems that he's still developing a method. No shame in that, and I hope he finds a good method.

 

It has been a good thread, one I've enjoyed reading, despite being frustrated with it.

 

You are correct, I am still working on a method and I need to keep on working on it. And I am also frustrated, thanks for your comments.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I disagree with most of what game said. The SLA is a simple, straightforward, highly risk-averse, self-correcting approach. Those who can't make it work don't or won't or can't follow the rules. This is not the fault of the approach.

 

If one can't succeed with something this simple, adding more tactics and setups and fiddling with trading size and scaling in and out will likely only make things worse.

 

If one is to succeed at trading, whether by this approach or any other, he must "know the game" perfectly and be competent at playing it. If one is more concerned about making money than he is about trading well, he will neither trade well nor make money. Based on the journals I've read here and at ET, I can't point out anyone who is interested in trading well.

 

Hi, Seeker, how's it going?

[Niko 10]

I disagree with most of what game said. The SLA is a simple, straightforward, highly risk-averse, self-correcting approach. Those who can't make it work don't or won't or can't follow the rules. This is not the fault of the approach.

 

 

Yep, I cant thank you enough for all you have done, the fact that I cant actually get over my fears and trade the SLA is not the fault of the approach.

 

 

If one can't succeed with something this simple, adding more tactics and setups and fiddling with trading size and scaling in and out will likely only make things worse.

 

 

Agreed

 

 

If one is to succeed at trading, whether by this approach or any other, he must "know the game" perfectly and be competent at playing it. If one is more concerned about making money than he is about trading well, he will neither trade well nor make money. Based on the journals I've read here and at ET, I can't point out anyone who is interested in trading well.

 

I have to rethink my approach to trading so I will take a break for sometime to review my life.

 

Thanks again.

[eminiman414 10]

Here is what I am looking at for the day. We'll see which way we break and then trade accordingly.

[Wolfhound 10]

Friday 13th June 2014 NQ100 1 Min Chart Review

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Today, my first trade was a mistake, but the others were okay. I still have issues with allowing a trade more space to work. Risk v reward issues.

 

 

1. A long on a higher low. Looking at it again, I should have waited for a proper break of the line.

 

2. Demand line broken with retracement for a short. Exited on a higher low break of supply line.

 

3. Here again the trade is stopped out. A reasonable stop below the swing low would cost 4 points.

 

4. A short after the break on the demand line. We are quite close to 11am, so probably can't expect another 20 point move now.