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[eminiman414 10]

Similar ideas like yesterday. Watching for what action may happen around 30 and/or 07. We are sitting right at about the middle of yesterdays range. 50% of the move up from 85 to 30 held yesterday which is a sign of strength however price was unable to make a HH. If we break out we have the highest high to watch. If above that we'll have to use strictly SLA and the context provided in RT by the 1m price movement. If below we have the previous ranges and swings to contend with and some 50% points.

[Niko 10]

First of all, thank you guys! I am feeling much better today.

 

So here we are around top of tops again. Yesterday buyers failed to break above 731, but sellers also failed to find counterparties below 07, these levels beyond which they cant find trades have been shrinking and are currently at 26 -08.

 

This morning , buyers attempted again a move above 26 but at the time of this post they don't seem to be strong enough.

 

At the open, buying pressure could move prices above 30 into new territories or, selling pressure could increase and take prices towards the MP of the whole area around 18-20.

 

Edit: Or we could just range for 20 minutes, like now

Edited May 29, 2014 by Niko

[Wolfhound 10]

A bit late today to write the prep up. The numbers are similar given that we stayed within the limits of the previous day.

[Niko 10]

We could barely break below 18. Only took 1 trade and I think I was because I got ahead of myself and did not wait for a clearer RET, that came 3 minutes later and from which no short would have been triggered.

 

1. After sellers decided they wanted to exit the hinge that was formed during the open I took this short that was SCR.

 

After this we remained in a range all morning, It was a huge hinge that never got broken.

[Niko 10]

For reference I also replayed yesterday. Not a better day. These last two weeks have sucked pretty badly.

 

1. After no buyers were found above 23 and sellers were interested below the PML I took the first RET. But just like the other days it was not meant to be a trend day and this short was SCR.

 

2. Some sort of hinge formed after they failed to make a LL and a HH and I waited for the break of the hinge and the next RET, but it was also SCR.

 

After this I really wanted to see some real interest below the LOD before taking another short,as that did not happen I just stopped trading.

[eminiman414 10]

Only two trades considered. None taken.

[Niko 10]

Only two trades considered. None taken.

 

Very patient congratulations.

[eminiman414 10]

Thanks. Working in it

[Wolfhound 10]

A similar day to yesterday. Not much easy trading to be had for me. We moved mostly around a mean in a tight range. If I cannot make money from these, I am happy not to lose much, and wait until trending days.

 

 

1. Put a short here off the rejection of the high. Just trying to get in early. This was exited soon after.

As the minutes moved on I could see that we were operating within a tight range. I will try to be ready for a breakout from this. It always looks obvious in hindsight.

 

2. Retracement after the demand line had broken. I exited at breakeven when it made a higher low. It looks like a day were traders are moving as much trades as possible around the mean, and maybe after all this is finished we will get some movement.

[Wolfhound 10]

We have finally got to touching distance of the highs. We made it to 37 by the close, and that was as high as we have got since. It will be interesting to see if there is any resistance to getting past 40. We do seem overdue a pause or retracement soon, but I will let the buyers and sellers decide when it happens.

 

Above 40 their is obviously a lot of fresh air, while below, we have made a relatively fast rise, so could easily see a big drop if we fail to get past 40.

 

Overnight we made a low of 29 and moved back towards the middle of the channel. As usual we have to test the overnight channel highs or lows before we can go anywhere.

[Wolfhound 10]

For reference I also replayed yesterday. Not a better day. These last two weeks have sucked pretty badly.

 

I understand what you feel Niko. The last 2 weeks have been basically non profit weeks. I guess what we have learned is how to keep losses at a minimum during these times, while we await the trending days. Those 100 point days of March and April seem a long way off now.

[Niko 10]

Buyers were finally found above 30, but they gave up pretty fast and in the new attempt for finding trades in new territories traders had failed at 36.

 

So far 30 has been providing buying pressure as if traders still think this is a trend and just jump in in the LSH.

 

At the open we will have to deal with either 37 or 29.

 

Above 37 is virgin territory so we will have to focus on what traders are doing without any point of reference.

 

Below 29 we have 20, 07 and 90.

[eminiman414 10]

In a hinge through the overnight. Depending on which way we break I'll look for a RET entry. Above 37.25 the focus will be on SLA and whatever the RT context becomes. Below 29, 23 is about the mean of much of the action yesterday. Not much action was seen below 15 and 07 is the swing low associated with the greatest decrease in price movement we've seen the last few days. These prices as well as the others I have noted are just "landmarks" until/if they become important.

[eminiman414 10]

zzzzzzzzzzzzz............

[Niko 10]

 

Same thing here.

[Niko 10]

How odd, a crappy day as well.

 

1. First attempt of buyers to go higher. Scratched

2. First attempt of sellers to go lower. Scratched.

 

Now we had an OR, not interested in trading inside the OR so...

[Wolfhound 10]

We spent most of the morning going nowhere. We tried to get past the high of 37 and eventually did, but no powerful breakout. I traded too much today, and it was most likely boredom at sitting watching another day kmowing that my skills are not good enough to play these kind of days better. A slap on the wrist for me, and I'll go for a run to help the mind and body stay strong.

 

 

1. A test of the overnight high followed by a test of the overnight low. I entered a short here below the overnight low, and it was stopped out instantly. A small loss which I can accept for the potential of a continuation of the fall. After this we had a lot of overlap and appeared to move into a hinge pattern, as buyers and sellers could not take price higher or lower.

 

2. We have a retracement after the break above the support line. We are in the middle of the 10 point range since the open. I'll wait and see what happens.

 

3. Rejection at the high again, so I entered on a retracement. Got out when it turned quickly. The difference between this and the last one was we had moved quickly, whereas athe last on was in congestion for a while.

 

4. We hit the highs again, and this time had a retracement near the highs. I put a short in here, and exited above the break of the supply line. These trades are starting to look like the result being hopeful for action during a day of relative boredom.

Looking at the day so far, I can see that the lows are getting higher even though we haven't made a descisive move past yesterday's highs. There seems to be a push towards breaking through that high.

[eminiman414 10]

I did the same thing. I have been waiting for decisive breaks and both trades did not have that prior to the RET. 37 obv is important and to which I consider an "extreme." Since the extreme did not break I do not know why I took the long trade. Made me think if this was the top of a TC would I have went long into the top or leaned more toward a REV. Similar to the bottom of the ON range at about 29. We barely traded below then popped right back up. So would it have been wise to short right around that price level? Both trades I did not want to take yet I did. Watching the ticker as opposed to looking for a bar that visually shows the RET caused me some inner turmoil with the short. The long basically I just put the entry up because I have not made many trades lately.

 

How do you feel/what do you think about taking these trades?

[eminiman414 10]

3 trades today. 2 SLA style and one pretty much for shits and giggles just to keep myself occupied/experimentation.

 

Trade one was a long. Reasons for taking this trade was not wanting to miss the breakout IF it was to even occur. Also it seemed every time price got to 35 the ticker stopped then moved up, stopped then moved up etc. So I said to myself if we bounce or REJ 35 I'll go long and see if we can't break 37. We traded a bit below 35 and had rej causing the RET so I went long. I haven't made many trades lately and I suppose this one I kind of just wanted to put a trade on as opposed to waiting for the break first which is what I have been doing previous. The trade should have been scratched much sooner but my computer sort of stuttered/froze for some reason and I missed the last bit of the bar that I entered on. But it's sim. Again I ask myself and note I went long into what I consider an extreme and until that extreme breaks or until trades are found above that price the idea would be a rev.

 

Trade two was a short. This basically confirmed the range of 37-29. Again same type of situation with the long. 29 was not a major extreme but it was an area where hardly any trades were found below it throughout the overnight. We got to the level rather quickly. Pretty much shot right into the level then had a bounce. Not a huge bounce in terms of extent but given the rapid down move we kind of made a bit of a U turn. Again though, shorted into the level before waiting for a decisive break. I have been waiting for almost an okay here we go kind of feel but instead this one was ahhh not again. We move up from a level we have previously moved up from prior to this moment here is a "RET" depicted by this "BAR" so I suppose I have to short. So what's more important? Being a bit mechanical or believing in what I have been reading in terms of the ticker behavior? Now, not saying that every judgement based on watching the ticker will be correct but I do think I am getting a bit more intuitive about what's going on especially around price levels that I have prepared for. A plus for this trade which I consider almost a victory is only taking a 1.25 point loss and not holding on for something that wasn't happening. Price basically touched my entry stopping me into the trade and bounce right off it and without hesitation I just exited. So I liked that about the trade. Had I done that in the first trade I'd be down less than 3 points. Big deal.

 

With that said anyone of these trades could have worked out and had I not taken them I would have commented on favoring a bit more of the mechanical side of making trades.

 

Trade 3 was my shits and giggles trade which started to get me thinking about reversals. Price worked its way back up to 37 and I said well we are at the extreme again lets just short it with a stop at 40. If we get close to 40 and we move decisively then we can exit and look for the RET and maybe something nice comes out of it. We could also SAR and get into the breakout depending. If neither happens then we are in the short with 33 and 29 as areas to watch within this range. We moved down hesitated at 33 pushed down but bounced right back up so the trade was exited.

 

Trade 3 had me thinking of "trading price" and not bars etc. Taking the REV at the open instead of long would have been a nice trade and also kept me on the right side of things. This trade also had me thinking about possibly looking at a 5s or a 15s chart when at an extreme and take a SLA signal as the REV trying to get as close to the "danger point" as possible. If like in this trade we did get stopped out then obviously there is a change in what's going on so that is informative. Then it had me thinking to keep shorting 37 UNTIL we had the change. The same goes for 29 at the bottom. We held there a little after the open came there again. Poked a little lower and rejected. Buying 29 with a 3 point stop puts us at 26 which is an area for the day we have yet to trade at. I will do some work this weekend again and just keep practicing.

[k p 10]

Trade 3 was my shits and giggles trade which started to get me thinking about reversals. Price worked its way back up to 37 and I said well we are at the extreme again lets just short it with a stop at 40. If we get close to 40 and we move decisively then we can exit and look for the RET and maybe something nice comes out of it. We could also SAR and get into the breakout depending. If neither happens then we are in the short with 33 and 29 as areas to watch within this range. We moved down hesitated at 33 pushed down but bounced right back up so the trade was exited.

 

Trade 3 had me thinking of "trading price" and not bars etc. Taking the REV at the open instead of long would have been a nice trade and also kept me on the right side of things. This trade also had me thinking about possibly looking at a 5s or a 15s chart when at an extreme and take a SLA signal as the REV trying to get as close to the "danger point" as possible. If like in this trade we did get stopped out then obviously there is a change in what's going on so that is informative. Then it had me thinking to keep shorting 37 UNTIL we had the change. The same goes for 29 at the bottom. We held there a little after the open came there again. Poked a little lower and rejected. Buying 29 with a 3 point stop puts us at 26 which is an area for the day we have yet to trade at. I will do some work this weekend again and just keep practicing.

 

I too am finding that my trades on a whim are good. Its not so much that its a whim though, its that something makes me think this might work, and before its obvious to everyone else, I could already be in for a better price. So I think there is something to this method.

 

I think there is also something to a 15 second chart. Getting in sooner is good I think, but you also have to worry about being stopped into a trade that will quickly reverse on you. I think looking for a RET in a 15 second chart but still using the one point away entry is something to consider. But like you, I am also very much considering the REV trades, tight stop just beyond the level. This seems to work especially well at double tops or bottoms, but for this watching the tick chart is necessary. Even the 15 second chart would have bars that are too big... so yes, watching price is more important.

[Niko 10]

I did the same thing. I have been waiting for decisive breaks and both trades did not have that prior to the RET. 37 obv is important and to which I consider an "extreme." Since the extreme did not break I do not know why I took the long trade. Made me think if this was the top of a TC would I have went long into the top or leaned more toward a REV. Similar to the bottom of the ON range at about 29. We barely traded below then popped right back up. So would it have been wise to short right around that price level? Both trades I did not want to take yet I did. Watching the ticker as opposed to looking for a bar that visually shows the RET caused me some inner turmoil with the short. The long basically I just put the entry up because I have not made many trades lately.

 

How do you feel/what do you think about taking these trades?

 

The whole week has had the same behavior, they try both ways and fail, then consolidate into some sort of congestion and then grind either up or down. Using my SCR criteria is impossible to trade under this conditions, but at least I give the benefit of the doubt to the opening moves as they usually are strong enough to leave you well positioned.

 

Now regarding the trades, I think both were valid, I am not sure I should have waited 2 points in the red before closing them, but the entries were valid and therefore there is nothing to feel about them.

 

In the other hand, I really think I managed to realize I was in a hostile environment and stayed away from it and that is a plus for me, as I usually ended trading the chop in the past. Perhaps if one was after a couple of points one could trade inside the TR, but I am not ready for that or even know if I am interested.

[game 10]

Wolf, Niko, Emini, Kp, Green, Bern, Hooti and all other aspirants -

 

Opening up this space in the hopes of sharing ideas regarding market characterization. While most of us are fairly comfortable with tactical elements, it seems that we are generally lacking in determining the current state of the market.

 

Example: When the market is swinging well, there is value in aggressively participating during hesitations at the Open, since the first 1 min retracement might not come till price has already moved 15 pts or so. While one may get faked out, the profit from big swings more than makes up for the losses. However, as I have been finding out lately, this strategy does not work too well when the market is turning 3 times in the first 15 mins within a tight 10 point Range. So awareness of the market's general behavior at the Open, should lead me to tone down aggressiveness at the Open and wait for more confirmation.

 

So how do I become aware of the market's behavior? I could just eyeball previous days. But by systematically recording data, I can not only see long term trends in behavior,but also establish some base probabilities.

 

So in the case of the above example, I am recording the OR across 5min, 15 min, 30 min, 60 min, 120 min and Daily Range. I am also recording the number of times price turns within the first 15 mins, along with the distance and pace of those small turns.

 

I have attached a few charts. The Range graphs show something that is fairly obvious by just glancing at our regular charts. However, by systematically compiling such data, I hope to improve awareness of and sensitivity to the market's shifting character.

 

Hope this gets us started off towards building a store of rich context.

Range Graphs.xlsx

[Niko 10]

Game, great to have you here. What a great idea!

[eminiman414 10]

If we test or attempt to test 40 at the open and it holds then I will look for a short op. If it breaks I will look for a long op. I will also look for a short op if we break below 34/35. If we trade below 30 I'd look to see what happens around 18 then 07ish. Continuing lower we have past ranges, swing points and 50% points to keep an eye on.

[Niko 10]

The grind up is still in place, the pattern of HHs and HLs within the context of overlapping bars in the hourly still present.

 

So far we are stuck below 41 and above 34, seems also like we formed a hinge ON with an apex at 37. So lets wait for the opening bell to see where this ends up going.

 

If we break to the upside, then it will be a world of wonder without many boundaries.

 

If we break to the downside, there are a lot of areas where price got stuck on the way up that could provide demand.

 

Lets see how this day behaves.