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[DbPhoenix 42]

I guess the advice to basically do one thing (like only retraces and not reversals), and only one lot of contracts, etc, and do that right without over thinking, etc. ...gives you the best chance to work out whatever you need to find your own way.

 

Which I've said any number of times. But few people can be deliberate. They must rush ahead and try to do too much too soon thinking that they can save time that way. But they invariably end up having to go back and retrace their steps, even to the extent of starting over.

 

But this is something that one must discover for himself.

[Niko 10]

I did that so often... back to sim and in a day or two I'd be nailing it without emotion or hesitation. Then after awhile I'd go back live and after a loss or two or three... right back to hesitation and gut clinch.

 

After that happened often enough, it seemed to me the emotions were a different issue than one I could work on in sim. Complete waste of my time.

 

But the sim did teach me that the technical part of what I was doing was not the problem.

 

I guess the advice to basically do one thing (like only retraces and not reversals), and only one lot of contracts, etc, and do that right without over thinking, etc. ...gives you the best chance to work out whatever you need to find your own way. Wish I'd done that sooner, and probably still need more so to let that kind of process clarify my emotions.

 

edit: I do use sim on weekends to drill and test things, including thinking about my emotions when I 'relive in sim' some of the trades I took during the week.

 

 

Yep, thanks I will do this as well.

[Niko 10]

This is largely or entirely due to the fact that your objectives are incompatible. You're trying to trade the SLA under different conditions while also trying to juggle multiple contracts.

 

Before going live, regardless of the number of contracts, you must be able to trade the SLA emotionlessly, without hesitation. If you can't do that, then trading multiple contracts will only set you back. You are no doubt aware of one member who appeared to be ready to go live but fell apart due to overthinking and overtinkering, like Victor Frankenstein. This is not uncommon, but each must make his own mistakes and find his own way.

 

Thanks, I will follow your advise. In sim I am already able to take the trades without hesitation, but I start having second thoughts when doing it live.

 

I will trade 1 contract live next week, will follow rules strictly and will review at the end of the week. Will post results everyday with the respective review.

[Niko 10]

Which I've said any number of times. But few people can be deliberate. They must rush ahead and try to do too much too soon thinking that they can save time that way. But they invariably end up having to go back and retrace their steps, even to the extent of starting over.

 

But this is something that one must discover for himself.

 

I know, I know, sometimes I just feel that I have been at this for so much time that I need to rush things up, but then I realized I only started to listen with intent around 6 months ago, so the system is not guilty for my sunk costs.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I know, I know, sometimes I just feel that I have been at this for so much time that I need to rush things up, but then I realized I only started to listen with intent around 6 months ago, so the system is not guilty for my sunk costs.

 

But you've been at it for so long because you've needed to rush things up. You'd likely be much farther ahead if you'd taken your time. Tortoise and the Hare.

 

One difficulty which you share with everybody else is a lack of appreciation for what a retracement is. If it provides you with an opportunity to enter, it's your best friend. But the next retracement is a danger signal, turning into your enemy, and prompts you to get out. The reasoning behind this needs to be examined if you are to make substantial progress.

[Niko 10]

But you've been at it for so long because you've needed to rush things up. You'd likely be much farther ahead if you'd taken your time. Tortoise and the Hare.

 

Yes, as soon as I decided to follow your advice and stop rushing I started to understand. Now, as I felt ready after my "success" at sim I thought I was ready for doing the same live. But these last weeks have proven me that when I face winnings I end up afraid of losing them and exiting too early and when I face losses I turn hesitant on new entries to the point of missing out on legitimate trades.

 

As I said I will take a step back, will do 1 contract live to be able to keep the "real" feelings that I need to overcome in the process.

 

Only when the amount of money on the line is trivial enough will the attention be focused on price behavior rather than fear of loss. The fear of being wrong is another matter.

 

One difficulty which you share with everybody else is a lack of appreciation for what a retracement is. If it provides you with an opportunity to enter, it's your best friend. But the next retracement is a danger signal, turning into your enemy, and prompts you to get out. The reasoning behind this needs to be examined if you are to make substantial progress.

 

I was trying to get my trades into the clear in order to leave them alone, but as soon as the new RET started to erode my paper profits I felt the anxiety, this was a huge problem during the first week and I tried to overcome it this week, but so far the market has not been as helpful regarding management.

 

I will just use break of LSL (last contract closing criteria now) as the only valid reason to close the contract I am gonna trade, once it has not been SCR and I will allow the RETs to form in calm.

 

Using the LSL amounts to avoiding the issue. It is not possible to create rules about this because so much depends on how price is moving, and that can't be determined on a static chart.

 

Where is the ret taking place? How far into the move? What is the context re previous swings and ranges and whatever trend might be in place, if any?

 

How is it taking place? Hesitant? Erratic? Plunging? Rocketing? Is it "clean"?

 

Are traders changing their minds and deciding to head in the opposite direction? Or are they changing their minds again and heading in the original direction after all? How can you prepare for this? How can you capture it?

 

The retracement is an opportunity for those who missed the beginning of the move to climb on board. If they aren't interested in climbing on board, what does that tell you? How far does price have to back up to give them the opportunity to participate? How far is too far? At what point does price say to hell with it and reverse?

 

And so on.

Edited May 14, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Wolfhound 10]

I wish to share my journey with SLA and AMT here. Currently I have been posting at ET, but since most of the conversation is now on TL, I will post my updates here also.

 

Todays update

 

Wedensday 14th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

 

Today we didn't move much. We stayed within a reasonably tight area. Without trends the retracement entries didn't get far, and eventually I stopped for the day. Maybe the afternoon will bring a change, but for now we are back more or less where we started at the open.

 

1. After the open we moved up to yesterday's low at 604 and were rejected sharply.

 

2. Back to the morning low and turned again. We stopped below 610, the 50% point of yesterday's high to todays low, and turned again. Soon it started looking like a hinge.

 

3. Another higher low, this time off the 50% point at 602. Chancing a long here with no expectations of going far, but only risking a scratch.

 

4. Eventually it couldn't get through all the congestion above and fell to break the demand line. I guess there is a short here, but I didn't take it.

 

5. Here we have a retracement for a short, which only makes it to the previous low before turning. Exited because I expected a furter rise in price due to the double bottom with the price from earlier in the morning.

 

6. After the a double bottom we then had a retracement, so I marked a long here. It didn't get far, and was exited for a small gain.

 

7. We can't make it up to the highs of the morning. The price moves sideways until the demand line is broken, with retracement for a short, which fails on the next bar.

 

8. Again we can't get to the morning highs, and fall to break the demand line. Another short entered after retracement. This one is stopped out on the entry bar. Thats enough for today.

[tradingwizzard 10]

I wish to share my journey with SLA and AMT here. Currently I have been posting at ET, but since most of the conversation is now on TL, I will post my updates here also.

 

Todays update

 

Wedensday 14th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

 

Today we didn't move much. We stayed within a reasonably tight area. Without trends the retracement entries didn't get far, and eventually I stopped for the day. Maybe the afternoon will bring a change, but for now we are back more or less where we started at the open.

 

1. After the open we moved up to yesterday's low at 604 and were rejected sharply.

 

2. Back to the morning low and turned again. We stopped below 610, the 50% point of yesterday's high to todays low, and turned again. Soon it started looking like a hinge.

 

3. Another higher low, this time off the 50% point at 602. Chancing a long here with no expectations of going far, but only risking a scratch.

 

4. Eventually it couldn't get through all the congestion above and fell to break the demand line. I guess there is a short here, but I didn't take it.

 

5. Here we have a retracement for a short, which only makes it to the previous low before turning. Exited because I expected a furter rise in price due to the double bottom with the price from earlier in the morning.

 

6. After the a double bottom we then had a retracement, so I marked a long here. It didn't get far, and was exited for a small gain.

 

7. We can't make it up to the highs of the morning. The price moves sideways until the demand line is broken, with retracement for a short, which fails on the next bar.

 

8. Again we can't get to the morning highs, and fall to break the demand line. Another short entered after retracement. This one is stopped out on the entry bar. Thats enough for today.

 

 

Looking forward to see your experience....you have all my support here

 

TW

[Niko 10]

 

Using the LSL amounts to avoiding the issue. It is not possible to create rules about this because so much depends on how price is moving, and that can't be determined on a static chart.

 

 

 

Then I will have to rethink exits, actually is the only part that we never discussed in depth and I just stuck with automatic "setups" to exit. LSs,

 

 

 

Where is the ret taking place? How far into the move? What is the context re previous swings and ranges and whatever trend might be in place, if any?

 

 

I definitely do not consider those things now regarding exits, so more work to do.

 

How is it taking place? Hesitant? Erratic? Plunging? Rocketing? Is it "clean"?

 

 

Same as before.

 

 

Are traders changing their minds and deciding to head in the opposite direction? Or are they changing their minds again and heading in the original direction after all? How can you prepare for this? How can you capture it?

 

Last week has been an example of this as most of my scratches ended up being good trades, but I did not have a strategy to take advantage of this, nor I am able to execute TDTDB so far.

 

 

The retracement is an opportunity for those who missed the beginning of the move to climb on board. If they aren't interested in climbing on board, what does that tell you? How far does price have to back up to give them the opportunity to participate? How far is too far? At what point does price say to hell with it and reverse?

 

And so on.

 

As always, a better way to analyze it than just close because of a break of last swing. Let me see how can I put all of this to work in RT.

 

Thanks

Edited May 14, 2014 by Niko

[Niko 10]

I wish to share my journey with SLA and AMT here. Currently I have been posting at ET, but since most of the conversation is now on TL, I will post my updates here also.

 

Todays update

 

Wedensday 14th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

 

Today we didn't move much. We stayed within a reasonably tight area. Without trends the retracement entries didn't get far, and eventually I stopped for the day. Maybe the afternoon will bring a change, but for now we are back more or less where we started at the open.

 

1. After the open we moved up to yesterday's low at 604 and were rejected sharply.

 

2. Back to the morning low and turned again. We stopped below 610, the 50% point of yesterday's high to todays low, and turned again. Soon it started looking like a hinge.

 

3. Another higher low, this time off the 50% point at 602. Chancing a long here with no expectations of going far, but only risking a scratch.

 

4. Eventually it couldn't get through all the congestion above and fell to break the demand line. I guess there is a short here, but I didn't take it.

 

5. Here we have a retracement for a short, which only makes it to the previous low before turning. Exited because I expected a furter rise in price due to the double bottom with the price from earlier in the morning.

 

6. After the a double bottom we then had a retracement, so I marked a long here. It didn't get far, and was exited for a small gain.

 

7. We can't make it up to the highs of the morning. The price moves sideways until the demand line is broken, with retracement for a short, which fails on the next bar.

 

8. Again we can't get to the morning highs, and fall to break the demand line. Another short entered after retracement. This one is stopped out on the entry bar. Thats enough for today.

 

You did much better than me . Great to see you posting here.

[Seeker 11]

Thanks, I will follow your advise. In sim I am already able to take the trades without hesitation, but I start having second thoughts when doing it live.

 

I will trade 1 contract live next week, will follow rules strictly and will review at the end of the week. Will post results everyday with the respective review.

 

What are your sim results, say for a week or two?

[Bern 10]

SLA trades for this morning:

 

Hi Db,

 

Would you consider the two additional trades I have marked as right to the letter and spirit of the SLA approach?

 

I did not trade yesterday but in hindsight I think I would probably have taken them.

 

Thanks

 

The short is fine if you can get out of the long fast enough. The long is fine if you don't mind trading inside a hinge.

Edited May 15, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[eminiman414 10]

Plan for the day. Price levels of interest moving forward for the most part are still the same.

[Bern 10]

Market prior to RTH open:

[Wolfhound 10]

You did much better than me . Great to see you posting here.

 

You are well ahead of me Niko. Your testing and analysis are excellent. A few more steps and you are there. I will hopefully be following you to the real trading world soon.

[Niko 10]

Prepwork 051514

 

The overall trend is still down, but so far buyers have proved they are interested above 83, at the moment seems like they will be looking for trades below 90, but it could be just an exploration.

 

If they manage to take prices lower (below 83) then the level to pay attention to on the downtrend would be 55 and from there 30.

 

If 83 holds then they will have to break the downtrend and take prices above 07 or else this could just be another day of congestion.

[Wolfhound 10]

Thursday 15th May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview

 

Yesterday we could not get up past even the overnight highs and spent most of the day in a large hinge before falling to 583 before the close and recovered to range below 600 during the night. An attempt to rise was halted at 606 and we have fell back in the morning to make a number of lows without getting near the 583 mark the morning we hit 606 and fell back.

 

The highs and lows that we have to pass are much the same as yesterday. We are close to the 580 mark, so we may test that area today, giving potential for a larger fall.

Edited May 15, 2014 by Wolfhound

[Bern 10]

I was scared by the volatility today and I did not handle it well. Just two trades. Sure SLA should have allowed me to re enter after exiting the short, but since I was scared by the range of the waves-bars and not really calm and focused, I decided to stay aside and just watch.

[Wolfhound 10]

Thursday 15th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

 

After a quick test of the 50% point of yesterday's high and low, we fell strongly for the morning. We are now back into our congested area, and the possibility of hitting further lows.

No real problems today, but I am aware of what was said about being afraid of retracements against my entries. I will keep it in mind and try to improve.

 

1. I was watching to see what would happen at 98 which was 50% of the high of yesterday to the overnight low. When the price turned at 98 I decided to wait for a retracement and try a short. I exited on a quick turn at 83 because of the previous low there. As people have said before, I do need to be a lot braver at these retracements, because the initial entry was quite good.

 

2. I could re-enter on the break below 83, but I would wait until the next retracement and short around 81.

 

3. Stopped at 66 whih is 50% between the low at 510 and the high at 624. With the supply line broken I thought we may have a retracement for a long, but it was actually a retracement for a further fall.

 

4. I waited for a retracement before putting another short on. This time I will do my best to stare down the retracements.

 

5. lower we get the more we start hitting previous congestion areas. The bars start to get tighter and overlap around here.

 

6. The supply line is broken again, and I decided to exit.

 

7. Went long on the retracement, but exited after 5 minutes of going nowhere. when I stand back and look at this, there is also a demand line break and a retracement with a lower high after my entry which would allow a short. But I can only takeone direction at a time.

[eminiman414 10]

I may have had a bit of an a ha moment. While I missed the TDTDB/should have stayed in a lot dawned on me. First was my exit. While I was about to hit the close button I said to myself wait...I am about to "buy" to close this position, how many other traders are thinking the same thing? How many traders are "buying" to close there position as well. If enough are buying of course the price will continue to go up. The pace/character of this buying was different then the selling on the way down and this is all taking place at an area where this type of action was expected. Also the behavior of the first 20 minutes or so was also different then the previous two days another clue that maybe we will have more of a trend type day. We popped out of the daily hinge with not much follow through and with the area of about 50 being the mean of that hinge combined with the behavioral change around the open was that an area likely to be tested?

 

I did not necessarily miss TDTDB i just did not take it because my mind just started to think more about the psychology of traders. How many traders might be thinking exactly like I am. Are they "fearing" a reversal, do they just want to take profits? How far does this buying really go? How fast is it taking place in relation to the behaviors before it? Where is it happening? Where/how does it end? Right as I exited I said ok where's the dog? Sure enough two minutes later there it was.

 

I don't know this was just a very interesting morning and maybe a shift in my mentality or more so of putting myself into the mind of other traders. Could using one's own thoughts be used as a tool for what other traders might be thinking/feeling as well. If I am confused what other traders are? If I am fearful who else is? If like today I am taking profits whether correct or incorrect who else is?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today's SLA trades with suggested scale-in points:

[Niko 10]

Well, today I felt much better, I forgot about multiple exits and focused on Price action, still avoided REVs as I will need more practice before taking them.

 

1. At the open the downward stride was broken and a HL was defined so a long was taken, but it failed rapidly just above the LSH so I decided to SCR the trade. This could have also been a good place to SAR but only in hindsight as at the moment my thinking was that sellers had tried already 2 times without much success below 90 so I better waited for that level to be broken and wait for the first ret. My entry was rapidly scratched and I made an operational mistake failing to trail the entry and entering 1 point below the entry level. But after my scratch buyers rapidly gave up and prices started to sell again, this formed another RET and an opportunity to enter.

 

Around 10:00 there was a strong rejection that made me think about how I was reacting during the last week, and just following procedure I decided to sit in my hands, by then the worst that could happen was a BE day and the opportunities of a downtrend were good enough to allow Price some wiggle room.

 

From this level we already had a "settled trend" to ride and my objective was to be able to reach 55.

 

2.As the trend ended I took the entry at the close of the trade, but it rapidly failed triggering a SCR.

 

3. Given that the new uptrend ended fast way below 50% and that I had some money still in the bank I decided to take the next short that appeared but it did not go anywhere and was rapidly SCR.

 

Given that they tried up and failed and down and failed I decided to call it a day. (given the time of day)

[Niko 10]

Today's SLA trades with suggested scale-in points:

 

Db, in the last short why did you wait to enter the short, my entry was supposed to trigger at a higher price (58.25), but I had my doubts given the inability of sellers to go under 54.25, at the time I couldt help to think I was in the middle of a TR, but I just took it and SCR, but I should have missed something that you saw.

 

The hinge.

 

Thanks at the time did not see it as a hinge but as a LH, after a DL break.

 

That's legit. Wouldn't have made any difference, tho.

Edited May 16, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Seeker 11]

Well, today I felt much better, I forgot about multiple exits and focused on Price action, still avoided REVs as I will need more practice before taking them.

 

1. At the open the downward stride was broken and a HL was defined so a long was taken, but it failed rapidly just above the LSH so I decided to SCR the trade. This could have also been a good place to SAR but only in hindsight as at the moment my thinking was that sellers had tried already 2 times without much success below 90 so I better waited for that level to be broken and wait for the first ret. My entry was rapidly scratched and I made an operational mistake failing to trail the entry and entering 1 point below the entry level. But after my scratch buyers rapidly gave up and prices started to sell again, this formed another RET and an opportunity to enter.

 

Around 10:00 there was a strong rejection that made me think about how I was reacting during the last week, and just following procedure I decided to sit in my hands, by then the worst that could happen was a BE day and the opportunities of a downtrend were good enough to allow Price some wiggle room.

 

From this level we already had a "settled trend" to ride and my objective was to be able to reach 55.

 

2.As the trend ended I took the entry at the close of the trade, but it rapidly failed triggering a SCR.

 

3. Given that the new uptrend ended fast way below 50% and that I had some money still in the bank I decided to take the next short that appeared but it did not go anywhere and was rapidly SCR.

 

Given that they tried up and failed and down and failed I decided to call it a day. (given the time of day)

 

Not giving trades much of a chance there.

[Niko 10]

Not giving trades much of a chance there.

 

I am not sure I uderstand what you mean.