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[Niko 10]

 

While the macro is important, you're not moving past it, and the macro isn't going to provide much guidance at the opening bell unless you just happen to be up against an extreme of some sort.

 

You must locate those levels beyond which traders can't find trades. Without that, you have only guesses and feelings to rely on. This morning, traders couldn't get past 93 (0730-0815). To the downside, they couldn't get past 84 (0845). Therefore, all you have to do is calculate the midpoint (87-88, Again) and see how traders trade around these levels. If you're not doing this, then you're just asking to be manipulated.

 

You can't clear muddy water by stirring it.

 

Thanks, will include that in the prepwork tomorrow.

[eminiman414 10]

As the title says I am doing the best I can at putting it all together. I went through 70 days of replays without regards to context mainly trading the SLA but also looking at re-entries and when to hold on and when to get out fast. All in all my win rate was 46% however I accumulated 349.5 points trading one contract which I thought wasn't too bad. I expected worse. I did this to sort of give me "an idea" as to what might be expected based on how i've been trading. Now I am adding in the context moving forward with the goal of being able to trade more intelligently which in my head will hopefully increase my win rate by keeping me out of what might be a silly trade. I have been studying my tail off so we shall see what happens.

 

For today I had 2 entries one short, one long. The short was a loser the long a "winner." As we opened up my focus was on the mean I had of 89 from the previous TR and around 91.5/92 which was the extreme set during the overnight. Reading through some posts today I found it interesting DB talking about 93 and 84 and the mean it created. I will investigate this type of thing tomorrow.

 

We started trading around 89 and for the most part went equally up and down around 89. On the upside we could not get back past the on extreme of 92+/-. Downside 86. We made a second trip back up and again can't get past 92 and make a LH. I recognized this and probably should have entered short but the fact that we were at the mean of the TR caused me not to take it. I went short on the first RET after the break of 86. This failed rather quickly and I held on too long. I didn't "think" 79/80 was anything special but it's not about what I think. If the trade fails quickly it fails quickly period. My eyes were more on 70 after my entry. In hindsight sure the entry at the mean would have worked out far better but is that a riskier entry or is my entry riskier due to mean reversion? The further we move from the mean are we more likely to come right back if price doesn't get to another mean or another extreme?

 

Second trade was the long which was exited pretty much at the mean. Taking this long 89 was on my mind as was 92 and then 98 which was the mean during the overnight. Again we reject prices above the mean and below 92 making another LH. From here after the HL at about 9:55 we are in a hinge with a mean of 86.

 

I was done before the break of the hinge. I was curious as to which way it would break and given that hardly any trades were found above 92 I was interested to see if we would break to the downside. Given from the overnight we had a mean of 98 and now with the hinge/range mean being 86 would that give us a clue to the direction of price movement?

 

Sorry I did not post the context. Will do so tomorrow. I also have the stats of the 70 days I traded if anyone wants to take a look at them I can post it up.

[eminiman414 10]

Getting going now. Just thinking are we looking more like chart A or chart B?

[eminiman414 10]

Zooming in a bit more the 15m and 5m. Overall I have my eyes on 70 and we'll see what happens there. If we enter back into the previous range I would be paying close attention to the mean of the TR and the UL of the TC. I believe in market profile they say when price enters back into a range the odds favor a test of the opposite end. 62/63 is a prev swing high and an area where we have seen hesitation and it appears we are seeing that now again. The PDL of 46.75 could be tested if we reverse from 63 or possibly 40 which puts us close to the mean of the TC.

 

If we break above 70 I will be looking long and if we bounce from 70 I will be looking short via the SLA. Since 70 seems to be an interesting level for many reasons it may also be choppy so I will be on the look out for that as well. 72 Is also 50% of the down move from the top of the previous range. If we reverse from where we are now I will wait to see what happens at 46ish/40.

 

In planning I am wondering right now if waiting for the area of the top of the range/UL of the TC would be a better idea since that is the extreme. Seems as if where I am looking 70 & 40 or so are big meanies lol. If 3604/06 is the extreme of the TR and I have about 3590 as the UL of the TC if thats the upper most extreme then the lower extremes would be 3490/80?

[Niko 10]

So, yesterday ended up being a sell and hold day :haha: (Sell at 5:00 cover at 20:00).

 

Now for those who trade after the open like I do, that is not of much use. .

 

But what is important from yesterday movement is the fact that it proved that 70 is still important here (72 to be exact in this case.

 

We stopped the drop around 43--48 area (50%s) (another important point from last week and we are currently rising towards 70 again.

 

So it means that we are now in a TR between 540 and 604 with a mean at 72/73.

 

There's no TR but rather a series of equilibrium levels, one of which is/was 50. The message to take away from this is not to calculate anything but to look at what traders are doing. They spent 14hrs huddled around the equilibrium level from last week, then at least some decided to venture upward. This got only as far as 66. Don't concern yourself with what's going on outside this arena. Focus on what traders are doing after having left the nest. Once they decide on a direction, then you can look for means and ranges and trends.

 

In the daily we seem to have formed some sort of hinge.

 

The conditions seem very rangy from any perspective.

 

Regarding the immediate trend sellers ran out of buyers at 66, didn't quite make it to 70 before the open but there is nothing that says so far that they wont try again before reaching 50% of the up move at 54.

 

Things to do today:

 

Once a trade is in profit LEAVE IT ALONE.

I have already set attached orders, so that I wont have to bother to run around the chart to place the exit orders. It will be done automatically.

Focus, scratch and reenter according to plan.

If they cant make a HH or a LL 5 minutes after the open better wait for a BO before committing money. especially if the trade is started around the mean.

Edited May 7, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

Getting going now. Just thinking are we looking more like chart A or chart B?

 

Price will let you now when it stops where it stops. By the way, thanks for pointing out the hinge at 30, missed it in my prep.

[Niko 10]

9:20 At 50% of the upmove from 42.

 

Focus on 50. If traders hover around this level, it'll be the same sort of day as yesterday.

Edited May 7, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

 

There's no TR but rather a series of equilibrium levels, one of which is/was 50. The message to take away from this is not to calculate anything but to look at what traders are doing. They spent 14hrs huddled around the equilibrium level from last week, then at least some decided to venture upward. This got only as far as 66. Don't concern yourself with what's going on outside this arena. Focus on what traders are doing after having left the nest. Once they decide on a direction, then you can look for means and ranges and trends.

 

So, after "leaving the nest" at 50, they looked for buyers but ran out of them at 66 now they seem to be looking for sellers but seems like they are also scarce below 53.

[V_2008 10]

I was looking for some entries today on NQ. What do you think about this entries and exits? And what about demand supply lines? Did I make mistakes in drawing them?

 

Is it good place to enter long trade within a trading range? Marked "???" on a chart?

 

At the time you take it, you're out of the range. That's why the probability of success is higher.

[Niko 10]

9:34, ran out of sellers at 48

9:38 Ran out of buyers at 61

 

Now find the halfway point between the OL and the OH. How price reacts to that will give you some idea whether you're headed higher or not.

 

FWIW, it appears to me that traders are testing each of these old eq levels in sequence. If so, the next will be 30.

Edited May 7, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

9:49 Seems like there are no more sellers below 38

Let the ret decide that for you. That's what it's for.

 

9:50 Just a poke at the OR bottom before the fall.

 

And here we are at 30. It's not magic; it's just a matter of understanding AMT.

 

Where is the next eq level?

 

500

Edited May 7, 2014 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Let the ret decide that for you. That's what it's for.

 

Yes, thanks, missed the entry because of my "conclusion"

 

Work toward hypotheses, not conclusions.

 

And we begin falling again after testing the SL. This is observable fact, not a conclusion. One could hypothesize, however, regarding the extent of this move down.

 

And as we approach 500, there are at least three choices: tighten the SL and exit on a break, exit if and when we hit 500, or do nothing and see if price decides to cascade downward. This decision is more likely to be made emotionlessly if it's made before it has to be acted on.

 

Yep, great stuff, that last parragraph, I ended up thigthening the line and closing between 5 and 8. Now I am way too happy to trade , and I think I will just watch.

 

I exited at 500. 60pts is plenty, given the hour. And the trade can always be re-entered.

 

I hope that the lurkers have a better understanding of how this works now. For later, or tomorrow, look at the next levels most likely to be of interest.

Edited May 7, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[eminiman414 10]

definitely some nice dogs.

[Niko 10]

At the outermost SL.

[Niko 10]

definitely some nice dogs.

 

Yes indeed, although I did not join the action until 30

[boru 10]

Nice play by play, thank you gentlemen

[eminiman414 10]

Yes indeed, although I did not join the action until 30

 

Still a great trade nonetheless.

[Niko 10]

 

I exited at 500. 60pts is plenty, given the hour. And the trade can always be re-entered.

 

I hope that the lurkers have a better understanding of how this works now

 

Thank you again for all your help. Will review and post my analysis and my to do and not to do for tomorrow.

Edited May 7, 2014 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Well, seems like 500 was were sellers finally decided that it was way too cheap.

 

But buyers did not want it above 20, so there was a duel, who will control the market buyers or sellers? (hence the hinge), buyers gave it a first try and failed to make a HH, then sellers tried, got a little bit of demand to provide to at the apex and now is the real test, will they make it below 06 or will they just give up and price will go into dullness.

Edited May 7, 2014 by Niko

[eminiman414 10]

Who let the dogs out?

 

The mean of about 50 was rejected at the open and price went up 11 points. We passed through the mean and down 12 points. No entry was taken on the slight hesitation under the PDL as I had 40 as a level I wanted to see what would happen at and as well I remember DB stating that if we move x amount from the mean we tend to move the same amount to the opposite side.

 

In a trading range. That's what creates the range. This isn't/wasn't a range. Once you take the entry at 44/45, there's no reason to exit.

 

Knowing we had about 3 points or so from where the entry would have been to that point of "equaling" the other extreme I passed and waited. We moved up from 38/40 and could not get back into the opening range, could not get back to the mean and barely traded above the PDL. Also not back up 50%. Took the dog short 43.75 exit at 30 because of buying coming in and being at the mean of the hinge. Price came back 50% and no further took the next dog short at 30 exit at 07.

Edited May 7, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

For later, or tomorrow, look at the next levels most likely to be of interest.

 

If we keep on falling:

 

• 80
  
• 70
  
• 35
  

[Niko 10]

Market review 050714

 

This is what I did today, at the open, as suggested by Db waited for confirmation of where they were finding trades, at first they tried down with no luck, stopping the decline at 50 where buyers rapidly rejected selling and prices jumped. This, at first made me think long at the RET but that never happened, (buyers were not interested above 61). I realized today that I am have not tested the bracketing in this kind of scenario and it is totally necessary.

 

1. After prices broke 50 my first mission was to wait for a RET to join the party, but my first attempt rapidly failed and was scratched.

 

Then was what I think the biggest mistake of the day, buyers tried to find a following above 50, a level that by now had proven to be important, but they were rapidly rejected, but I guess I was thinking in lines and line breaks and did not realize the other information that was in front of me. This also has to do with bracketing and the possibility of contemplating both directions.

 

By now, I am able to identify various layers of fear that looked as if they were gone in sim, but that start to pop out everywhere in live trading, I expect them to go away as I gain confidence in my execution.

 

2. After missing another RET at 9:55 I decided to man up and take the next one. It worked just fine. This was finally exited after reaching 500 and breaking the DL. Here the mistake was to get too eager to exit as my plan calls for waiting for a HL, that came a couple of minutes later and it would have taken me out at the same place, but it could just as well keep on falling.

 

I will replay the day and post more in depth analysis later in the afternoon.

[eminiman414 10]

Market review 050714

 

 

Then was what I think the biggest mistake of the day, buyers tried to find a following above 50, a level that by now had proven to be important, but they were rapidly rejected, but I guess I was thinking in lines and line breaks and did not realize the other information that was in front of me. This also has to do with bracketing and the possibility of contemplating both directions.

 

 

 

That is something I have been thinking about also. I have also been thinking about sticking with the side that seems to be in control and then just entering with the possibility of maybe a quick scratch then the typical SLA entry or even some type of SAR. Then I think if we do go long either on a SAR or SLA (if it showed up) what's our potential? Chopped around 50? Get back to 61 or even 66? Maybe higher?

 

Since we made a HL (61) from the ON high (66) and then made a LL from the open and among other things my eye stuck with down as the direction.

 

Another thing that I have noticed from my own run through of all of this is your first entry which is an entry I saw but skipped, I have found that when I see action like what happened about 5 bars up from the entry the RET after that hardly ever worked for me or worked minimally. Don't have exact stats on it yet. It's as if the 5th bar from the bar where the entry was triggered (sorry about the bar talk) is the first hesitation in that wave. I have found similar results with missing a dog and then taking the subsequent RET. This no where near as effective as a whole. Again no stats on these yet just general observations. Sorry for the big post in your general.

[Niko 10]

Not at all,thanks for posting. Interesting observations, I still need to work more on my ability to spot and act upon DTDB.

 

It's not so much a matter of TDTDB as it is context. The NQ has been falling down the stairs in a very measured way since 3600, stopping at each old eq level on the way. There's no reason to assume that this will not continue. If 3500 is an interim bottom or even a rallying level, it has so far been relatively easy. Once everyone sees, however, what the NQ has been doing and how it's been doing it (I'm not holding my breath), it may not be so easy going forward without capitulation. On the other hand, seeing how poorly the NDX10 are doing, it may be easier than expected.

 

Those who can't ditch the lines ought at least to do two preps, one with and one without.

Edited May 7, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

Hey, how is research going? Any news from the R&D world?