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[bmwhendrix 10]

A question on the dt today and dt's/db's in general.

Do you consider a dt still valid if price exceeds it by a tick or 2?

[Niko 10]

A question on the dt today and dt's/db's in general.

Do you consider a dt still valid if price exceeds it by a tick or 2?

 

I guess more important than that (in a fast market price might overshoot by more than 2 ticks) is the behavior and by that I mean the way the rejection occurs, if for example the rally stalls and collapses it tells you something about buying interest not being there anymore (nobody else wants it so why would you? ) I could be wrong though.

[Niko 10]

Db, what kept you from taking a long at the HL at 9:48 /49 (dep on datafeed), I just finished replaying the day and couldn't find a reason not to take it, so I was wondering.

 

By that time, we had begun moving sideways. The first effort to exit this failed immediately. Therefore I decided to wait until price had decisively left this consolidation one way or the other before making a commitment. I didn't care about a few points.

 

Yep, now I can see that. Posted the chart so that others who are reading might comment on this.

[Hooti 10]

Yep, now I can see that. Posted the chart so that others who are reading might comment on this.

 

Thanks for posting this Niko & DB.... it helps alot

[green.green 10]

I've been doing some rough data analysis on night session versus day session. I've included the excel file if anyone is curious. There is raw data for the overnight session and day session going back to April 1st 2010. I didn't exclude holiday's but if someone wants that level of detail they are free to do so.

 

So what is the point of all this? I wanted to see how often the overnight high or low is broken. It turns out that this occurs 96% of the time. Even more interesting is that when the high or low is broken 71% of the time the other extreme is not broken. I have over 1000 days as my sample set so this number is historically accurate. This got me interested in the distribution of ranges where neither end was broken. Surprisingly when this occurs it's most often with ranges of 20 points or less.

 

I also did some distribution work on overnight and day ranges which just give a better sense of what sort or ranges normally occur. I made the excel file for myself so if you can't understand any part of it feel free to ask me - it's not pretty.

NQmasterDATA.xlsx

[green.green 10]

I haven't done my homework for tomorrow yet but I wanted to post my chart from today. This chart can be compared with the one posted yesterday in this thread.

[DbPhoenix 42]

This appears to be pertinent and may be helpful:

 

I am sick of hearing people say that 90% of traders lose because the market chews them up or the system doesn't work or whatever. That is just BS. The problem is those traders spend all their time playing with indicator values or analyzing timeframes or whatever and they miss the whole point of what they are doing here. This is a MARKET.

 

All markets have buyers and sellers. I don't know why everyone can be experts on value when they look at items in a store or a piece of real estate or whatever but not in the market. If you wanted to sell your house for 500k and you had nobody even look at it in a booming market what would that tell you? The price was too high. Would you then raise the price of the house the next day? Of course not, you drop your offer if you wanted to sell it. You see what I mean? Markets make sense when we are talking about real estate or whatever, but people just blindly look at indicators and follow systems even in the face of obvious current price information.

 

Example: in the last 5 minutes price has had a high failure at 1350 three times and is currently trading at 1348. Do you take a long setup here because a momentum indicator is above zero and the 9 day moving average just crossed over and above the 20 day? Why not, don't we always have to stick to our trading plan blah, blah, blah? That is a great example of how traders follow systems to the letter and then scratch their heads because they can't figure out why they are losing. Into the 90% pile they go. This isn't a ridiculous example either. This scenario repeats itself about once every 10 minutes on most days in any market.

 

Anon

[Hooti 10]

SLA brought along with scratching and realizing I didn't have to lose. That changed everything.

 

AMT was in the wings and I thought would take me from knowing 'not having to lose' to being able to win.

 

AMT taught me something that changed everything, as much or more so than learning I didn't have lose, but it wasn't how to win.

 

AMT required prep work. Once the prep work became kind of consistent, the thing that changed everything was not winning, it was trusting. ...an EQ thing, not so much an IQ thing.

 

I realized I trusted the market. You have been around longer Db and may have heard someone say that before, but actually trusting the market was a foreign concept to me.

 

Then I realized what learning to scratch had done was teach trusting my self in the market. AMT took me further to a place of trusting the market it's self.

 

With the two together, fear doesn't have much room.

Edited April 29, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

For today. Given that we bounced off the LL and have passed through the mean, the next stop is most likely the UL.

 

0910: Traders are unable to find trades above the same level as yesterday.

 

1100: Only two trades by 1100, both scratches. Not unexpected given where we are.

Edited April 29, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

For today. Given that we bounced off the LL and have passed through the mean, the next stop is most likely the UL.

 

0910: Traders are unable to find trades above the same level as yesterday.

 

1100: Only two trades by 1100, both scratches. Not unexpected given where we are.

[Hooti 10]

I

TRIED

to post that as several posts, so my posts wouldn't have to keep going thru the moderators.

 

But I'm afraid Db scrunched them altogether.... don't know if will sigh or laugh!

[Niko 10]

Pretty volatile. Bounced off the mean in the daily TC.

[Niko 10]

20 point range, now one has to make the decision wait for a break or trade inside, that has to be in the plan BTW.

[Niko 10]

Is 47 the mean? I had a PM mean at 48 but now it seems like 47.

[Hooti 10]

That is about where I have it. There is a smaller 50% and a larger 50%

[Niko 10]

Nice, now a TR between 38 and 47.

[Niko 10]

What else can I say, thank you Db, SLAAMTZEN, saved my day.

[r3algood 10]

What else can I say, thank you Db, SLAAMTZEN, saved my day.

 

Fantastic trading Niko, especially on those scratches!

 

I have been reading through all the old material and I have enjoyed seeing you progress in your trading over the various threads. If I may, I would say that you have gone from "timid" or "fearful" trading to solid, plan-backed trading with confidence. It's a truly remarkable journey.

[Wolfhound 10]

That was a day of revolving around a mean.

Those used to confuse me, but now I am almost cured.

Nice reversal off the failure to breakout, Niko

[Niko 10]

I am trying to understand this morning in the context of fear, this is the best I can come up with so far. Sort of trying to see what "they" fear, so I can use it objectively during RT trading.

 

Any comments will be highly appreciated.

 

I doubt that fear enters into it at all, except perhaps in the case of the itty-bitty retail trader who has no plan and doesn't know what's going on. Everybody else is just looking for trades. They don't care where they find them, up, down, whatever. Makes no difference to them. Not much different than a migrant farm worker.

 

They'll let you know when they've found them. If you're paying attention, you can have some too.

Edited April 29, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

 

I doubt that fear enters into it at all, except perhaps in the case of the itty-bitty retail trader who has no plan and doesn't know what's going on. Everybody else is just looking for trades. They don't care where they find them, up, down, whatever. Makes no difference to them. Not much different than a migrant farm worker.

 

They'll let you know when they've found them. If you're paying attention, you can have some too.

 

Ok thanks, I am trying to understand the behavior behind the rapid fall after the failure to break the premarket high.

 

So, not thinking in terms of fear but of "acute business sense" it just made no sense to keep holding after buyers failed to pay above the PMH, and the right thing to do was to dump the contracts and take a short.

 

If you were to look at a tick chart, I suspect you'd see a lot of gapping. Even though price movement is continuous, it need not be contiguous.

 

Thanks

Edited April 29, 2014 by Niko

[DbPhoenix 42]

There's very little difference between this morning's chart and yesterday's, though the market is providing a good example of the difference between the median and the mean.

 

Usually these two align, more or less, but the median of the trend channel, at about 30, is below the level where traders have decided to set up camp, 20pts higher at about 50. Therefore, the "middle" of the trend channel will not necessarily provide fireworks if and when price declines to that point. What will be more important this morning is how traders behave around 50.

 

The upper limit as of this morning is around 90, so one would be well-advised to let traders work all this out and wait for a test of 90 or thereabouts rather than get entangled in the trading activity around the "mean" at 50.

[DbPhoenix 42]

There's very little difference between this morning's chart and yesterday's, though the market is providing a good example of the difference between the median and the mean.

 

Usually these two align, more or less, but the median of the trend channel, at about 30, is below the level where traders have decided to set up camp, 20pts higher at about 50. Therefore, the "middle" of the trend channel will not necessarily provide fireworks if and when price declines to that point. What will be more important this morning is how traders behave around 50.

 

The upper limit as of this morning is around 90, so one would be well-advised to let traders work all this out and wait for a test of 90 or thereabouts rather than get entangled in the trading activity around the "mean" at 50.

 

For those who prefer to cut to the chase, the charts I've posted to this thread along with subsequent charts may be found here, without discussion.

Edited May 2, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Bern 10]

Just before RTH open

[Niko 10]

...so one would be well-advised to let traders work all this out and wait for a test of 90 or thereabouts rather than get entangled in the trading activity around the "mean" at 50.

 

Good advice , as always.