Sandbox

[DbPhoenix 42]

Thanks, looks like 45 was it, but it just got stuck there.

 

The probability that we would have another V reversal at the same place two days in a row was slim to none. As for the LL, looks to me like it's around 3485.

[Niko 10]

The probability that we would have another V reversal at the same place two days in a row was slim to none. As for the LL, looks to me like it's around 3485.

 

 

One can only hope (VREV) . And back at 32, how odd.

[Niko 10]

And it stopped on the daily swing low of the 21st.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today's charts. There are two due to the compression of the open that would result if the entire downmove were charted without segmentation.

Edited April 26, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today's charts. There are two due to the compression of the open that would result if the entire downmove were charted without segmentation.

[bmwhendrix 10]

Not clear if the long was an SLA trade?

 

Yes, due to the DB.

Edited April 25, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[BAO 10]

DB, your entry order is buy stop? or limit? thanks

 

Stoplimit.

 

by the way, what is TD TDB?

 

The Dog That Didn't Bark. See the pdf provided in the first post.

Edited April 25, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[green.green 10]

As I've been working on my "flight plan" I've been drawing from my reservoir of poker experience and I realize a lot of what I've learned from poker isn't well understood by retail traders. I'll try and summarize my thoughts in this post. I hope it helps my fellow SLAyers. I apologize for all of the upcoming poker analogies.

 

The Goal - the reason for developing a "flight plan" is so that we can define and track our edge. By doing this over time we build an intuitive approach to trading and a trust in our plan and our abilities to execute our plan.

 

Intuitive trading is not the same as doing what feels good. It is forming a habit so that we don't have to think about each trade as they develop. We see a DL break, a pullback and we set our entry and our stop without wasting mental energy. It's building "muscle memory". When Michael Jordan steps on a basketball court he isn't thinking, he is reacting. He has built habits and uses these habits to drive his actions of the court. When the game is over he watches tape of the game and analyzes what he did right and what he could improve on. When he finds some weakness in his game he goes to the gym and practices that element over and over until it is automatic.

 

I think most of us understand this but we don't know how to "go to the gym", we sim endlessly and we look at historical charts but what are we practicing? Would Michael Jordan get to the skill level he has if he just played pickup basketball day after day? So where to begin?

 

In poker the primary starting point is EV; expected value. Expected value is defined as (average win x win %) - (average loss x loss %). In poker the EV of any hand can be calculated but only if you keep statistics. If you have played 1000 hands of AK you can calculate your EV for that hand with reasonable certainty. If a hand has a positive EV then you are making money with that hand, if it has a -EV then you are losing money with that hand. You can maximize your overall EV by removing hands with -EV.

 

A poker player also needs to consider variance. Let's say that I am looking at my results when I play the hand 65. Let's say my win percentage is very near 25% and my EV with this hand is 0.05 antes (the equivalent of ticks for poker). This hand is showing a positive EV over time but I may consider tossing it. The reason is because this hand is likely to greatly increasing my overall variance. The closer a particular hand's EV is to zero and the lower it's win percentage the more it will increase my variance (swings). Whether to play this sort of hand is up to the individual poker player. If he has enough money and the mental makeup to handle big swings in his account he may keep any positive EV hand in his overall strategy. (I've included a screenshot of the results on one of the best poker players in the world. Note his best and worst days as well as some of the swings he had to endure. This player does not turn down any +EV hand.) On last point about all this that is important. The lower the win rate of a hand in poker the larger a sample you need to accurately determine it's true EV. Don't be fooled by strong results with low win rates over small samples.

 

So how does this work for traders? If you want to be a discretionary trader it starts with observation (http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/15896-how-do.html#post176152). When you see something that you suspect might have an edge then the first step is to find at least 30 instances of this behavior. Let's use the hinge as an example. Find 30 times a hinge forms on your trading chart.

 

Next comes trade execution and management. You need to define how you will enter on the hinge and how you will manage your trade once it is entered. This is a huge stumbling block for poker players. If a poker player has a setup (let's say he is dealt the hand AK) he might know he should play this hand, he might even know he should raise to maximize his EV but this is where most poker players stop and fail. They don't actually have a plan. They raise to 4 times the ante one time and 3 times the next. They don't know what to do if they are re-raised by another player (should they fold, call or re-re-raise?). They don't know what they are going to do if they completely miss the flop (bet or check?) or how best to maximize their EV when they hit a hand. They especially don't know when to fold.

 

What ends up happening is they make a plan on the fly. (I'm going to bet the flop and fold to any resistance; I'm going to call one bet to see one more card). The disaster with this approach is there is nothing to measure. There is no metric to help the poker player. He isn't following a pre-defined plan so his results don't relate to or test a plan. Without the plan there is no way to improve, there is no way to maximize EV and there is plenty of fear. Even worse - they are often rewarded by winning a pot. They don't realize how much EV they are leaving on the table each time they are dealt AK.

 

Trading is a little different than poker in one important way. With trading you are never forced to play a marginal hand. You can sit back and wait for a premium hand without any real drawback other than time lost (opportunity cost). In poker you will go broke from the ante if you forgo too many marginally + EV situations. In poker there are three main focuses for a strategy, maximize EV, minimize risk and maximizing emotional control. A poker player might forgo playing certain hands because sitting on the sidelines allows him to keep calm which in turn improves his overall play. How to balance these three considerations is a personal decision but one that should be based on your particular makeup. This will define the style of your trading.

 

A note about money - in poker you exchange money for chips. You measure your results in relation to the size of the ante. You try to think in terms of ante not money. The EV of AA might be 2x the ante as an example. The same thing should be done in trading. Concern yourself with the EV of a setup and frame it in terms of ticks. Turn off you P & L if possible during the session.

 

So you collect 30 (or more) instances of a hinge. You come up with a trade management strategy for trading the hinge; how you will enter, how you will move your stop, where you will take profits or scale out etc. You now can create a theoretical EV for this setup. Now you forward test or simulate this trade in real time. Now your statistics that you collect are meaningful and will lead to improvement. You can make adjustments to your entries and exits that maximize the EV of a hinge. All setups should be treated in this exact manner: observation leads to a hypothesis/setup leads to a rough determination of the edge leads to a management plan leads to quantifiable results and improvement.

 

We now have a theoretical win percentage for our hinge setup and an average number of ticks this trade should yield. If we were computers this would be enough but we also need to consider errors that might arise.

 

In poker there are five common errors.

 

1 - not playing a hand that you should - you are dealt JT but you are nervous or distracted or have been losing and you don't play the hand.

2 - playing a hand you shouldn't - you are bored or on a win streak or distracted and decide to play a marginal hand.

3 - playing a hand differently than you planned to - you don't hit a flop at all with AK. Your plan says you should fold but you decide to pay to see one more card.

4 - chasing - you have a straight draw but you overpay to see if you can make your hand.

5 - making a mechanical mistake - you want to raise to 4 times the ante but you put out more chips than you intended.

 

The trading equivalents here should be obvious. Most of these mistakes also contain a psychological component. You are nervous or scared or greedy or euphoric and this causes you not to follow your own rules. If you track these mistakes they will either cause you to better follow your plan or modify your plan to better suit your personality. They will also show you explicitly how much you are losing by going off the map. Lastly, you will be able to identify situations where you plan is inadequate or where being aware of a particular context cue might greatly increase your win rate or EV. Without tracking mistakes you inadvertently taint the data you are collecting on your setups.

 

Some of you may know that I enjoy lifting weights. There are many good reasons for this. In weight lifting you can set lofty goals. You can wake up today having never lifted weights in you life and decide you want to be able to squat 300 lbs. You go into the gym and you can only squat the bar (45 lbs) but you talk to some people who know more than you and you come up with a plan. You decide to do a certain number of reps and sets every other day and incrementally increase the load on the bar. You create a workout log where you track what you are doing each time you lift. You can see where you are getting stuck. Maybe you work up to squatting 150 lbs but you stop progressing. You modify some aspect of your lifting plan. You eat more, you sleep more, you increase your volume etc. Pretty soon you are squatting 200 lbs. You make these seemingly tiny incremental changes and over time you can reach your goal and more.

 

The reason I bring this up is because none of this improvement is possible without keeping records. You can't tell where you are stuck. You can't make sensible increases in weight. You don't create any sort of positive feedback for your efforts. Poker (or trading) without records is like going into the gym each day, putting 300 lbs on the bar and trying to squat it. You are going to fail and build a negative image of yourself and your abilities. You remove all of the positive feedback and instead frame your efforts around failure.

 

When I finish my flight plan I'll be happy to share it with anyone who is interested. Like anything in life it will be up to you to make it your own and to use it. I won't be simming until this work is done.

[green.green 10]

Here is a chart I started working on yesterday as a means for testing a setup. I've been looking specifically at boxes and how they interact with price. I'm getting better at identifying boxes and am starting to see their importance. All of the boxes and horizontal lines were drawn on this chart before the market opened. I didn't draw the down sloping channel until price broke below 3550. The interaction of horizontal and diagonal lines is certainly compelling.

 

I did something with boxes several years ago in an attempt to explain support and resistance. However, nearly everyone focused on the boxes themselves rather than the support and resistance they implied, much less the trader behavior that created the boxes in the first place. So it never really went anywhere and became just another newbie gimmick.

 

If you understand the behavior that these boxes represent, i.e., why the boxes take place, then they may be helpful. But if they're no more than a "feature", they are not likely to be of much value.

Edited April 25, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[eminiman414 10]

Today's charts. There are two due to the compression of the open that would result if the entire downmove were charted without segmentation.

 

At what point does your brain switch from a potential long entry to shorting TDTDB? What do you see when price moves down that makes you short instead of seeing if that turns into a retracement to take long? Is the entry a one point stop entry or do you just enter at the market?

 

When the trade doesn't go. If the entry is not only not triggered but traders make no attempt whatsoever to move toward it, then clearly the action is in the other direction. If not, then price will simply go sideways, which it sometimes does, but not at that hour. In this case, traders balked at the 50% level and there never was even a retracement. So a long entry never came up.

 

And never enter at the market.

Edited April 25, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

At what point does your brain switch from a potential long entry to shorting TDTDB? What do you see when price moves down that makes you short instead of seeing if that turns into a retracement to take long? Is the entry a one point stop entry or do you just enter at the market?

Some weeks ago we had this same behavior premarket, then after the open sellers explored the downside, didn't find much of a following and then it was time to look for buyers at the MP (value), as no buyers were found then those who were invested just gave up and all hell broke loose.

 

I am not sure where we discussed it but it must be in the ghost thread at ET.

[Niko 10]

Today's charts. There are two due to the compression of the open that would result if the entire downmove were charted without segmentation.

 

Given the action at 10:00 and what happened yesterday at that same level I ended up trying to take a REV that got scratched.

 

You said before that the odds of that REV having any possibilities were none, so I will take that into account for the future. But I wanted to ask you, besides the fact that the line was intact is there anything else that you had in your mind that prompted you to stay in the trade?

 

Because nothing prompted me to get out. The upside had been rejected several times, so the LOLR was down, and according to AMT, "down" meant the LL of the TC. We never got there, but there was no definable reversal until the point where the SL was broken and price moved to the upside by more than a couple of points.

 

You've asked before how I can stay in when everybody else is bailing at the least little quiver and twitch. The chief reason is that I have my eye on the limits and whether supply and demand are in the right balance to get there. As long as the limit hasn't been reached and price isn't breaking the stride by more than a few ticks, there's simply to reason to exit. The "lines" are irrelevant. I draw them in only to illustrate the stride.

 

Ok thanks, will have to work on that, anyway I managed to reenter below 40 and stayed all the way to the break of the stride, but in hindsight it was obvious that I should have stayed during the congestion and saved myself the work. Things to keep on the journal for future reference.

Edited April 25, 2014 by Niko

[eminiman414 10]

At what point does your brain switch from a potential long entry to shorting TDTDB? What do you see when price moves down that makes you short instead of seeing if that turns into a retracement to take long? Is the entry a one point stop entry or do you just enter at the market?

 

When the trade doesn't go. If the entry is not only not triggered but traders make no attempt whatsoever to move toward it, then clearly the action is in the other direction. If not, then price will simply go sideways, which it sometimes does, but not at that hour. In this case, traders balked at the 50% level and there never was even a retracement. So a long entry never came up.

 

And never enter at the market.

 

Right. By all means at this point I understand the principles but entering and profiting from situations like this are where I don't want to say struggle it's more of "missing out." Let me see if I can word this better. Once price breaks the line initially we switch gears from short to long. We do not get a retracement before the 50% point. Is that a cause to switch back momentarily to the short side? In my mind I am still thinking long and when we get to 50% literally the next bar reverses almost the whole move that broke the SL. How does one time that correctly?

 

Maybe to simplify the question. When do you place your sell stop order? Is it simply price doesn't move past 50% so I am putting in my sell stop below the bar that gets to 50% as if it's a break/ret trade? Then that next long 1m bar takes me in?

 

The break/ret to me is so simple/straight forward like a very easy slow dance where the 50% entry is like learning to salsa dance (a little more skill involved).

 

In my head for the above situation is break/ret but then we get a break...price gets to 50%...okay and my retttt oops there goes the boat without me in the same direction as my exit.

 

I'm not sure you do understand the principles if you're still focused on lines and line "breaks" and bars and where to enter and how. The lines are merely an aid to help the trader focus on supply and demand and the balance between them. If one is still using them after two or three weeks then he's focused on the wrong thing (some people have been using them for months, which may be one reason why success continues to elude them, though many give up a lot sooner).

 

The objective of traders is to trade. Therefore they will look for those levels where they are most likely to find trades. If they don't find them there, they will look elsewhere. All the bullshit about how the market is out to get you and searches for your stops and so forth is a distraction from the business of trading. Therefore, if traders can't find trades to the upside and the rally effort they make in order to find them is feeble, e.g., less than 50%, the logical move is to look for the downside, particularly if all of this is taking place after a lower low. If one is unsure about where they're going to go, he can bracket the trade. But if he's tied up by inflexible protocols, he'll be focused on those protocols rather than on what price is doing.

 

There aren't going to be a lot of explanatory posts in this thread, i.e., as close as possible to none. Five thousand is more than enough. What I intend to do is post the charts. It's up to whoever is interested to read the material, try it out, compare what they did with what should have been done, rework their strategy/tactics, then try again the next day, then again and again until they either get it or give up and try something else. It's not like this is the only way to make money.

 

No I get it I was just referring to the lines as they were drawn on your chart. Last question regarding this would be what made you conclude that at or less than 50% traders were done at those prices and it was time to look lower?

 

Because price didn't move higher. TDTDB.

 

I've updated the annotation on the chart to point out the lower high and the lower low. A lower high followed by a lower low indicate a downtrend. One doesn't go long in a downtrend absent a break in the SL and a subsequent retracement.

Edited April 26, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[green.green 10]

I did something with boxes several years ago in an attempt to explain support and resistance. However, nearly everyone focused on the boxes themselves rather than the support and resistance they implied, much less the trader behavior that created the boxes in the first place. So it never really went anywhere and became just another newbie gimmick.

 

If you understand the behavior that these boxes represent, i.e., why the boxes take place, then they may be helpful. But if they're no more than a "feature", they are not likely to be of much value.

 

I've been trying to relate boxes to AMT. It seems that boxes represent value. I imagine if you were to plot the volume distribution (or time) within a box you would often get a bell curve. So the mean of the box should be the place where buyers and sellers agreed on price the most. When price leaves the box you have the auction market searching for new value/advertising price.

 

This is my starting point at least.

[green.green 10]

Here is my chart for tomorrow. I won't be simming until I finish my flight plan and statistical analysis. I just want to see how well my homework provides areas to trade (or more importantly - areas not to trade) and continue to build the habit of doing proper homework.

[DbPhoenix 42]

..................................

[DbPhoenix 42]

..................................

[Niko 10]

..................................

 

Thanks, it always helps to see stuff from your viewpoint.

[Niko 10]

..................................

 

Nice call BTW . Crystal Clear

 

Maybe we can get to 3475 quickly and I can go back to bed.

 

If only was that easy.

 

Whats the deal with 20.

 

The activity on the 21st and 25th maybe.

Edited April 28, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

Thanks, anyway, missed the REV at 26. And the DTDB at 10:08 so I think i will call it a day I am out of focus.

[Niko 10]

This is what I saw.

 

As I said, missed the two yellow circles.

[DbPhoenix 42]

The first three charts cover the period up to 1100. The fourth and fifth cover the period after 1100.

Edited April 28, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

The first three charts cover the period up to 1100. The fourth and fifth cover the period after 1100.

[Niko 10]

......................

 

Db, what kept you from taking a long at the HL at 9:48 /49 (dep on datafeed), I just finished replaying the day and couldn't find a reason not to take it, so I was wondering.

 

By that time, we had begun moving sideways. The first effort to exit this failed immediately. Therefore I decided to wait until price had decisively left this consolidation one way or the other before making a commitment. I didn't care about a few points.

Edited April 28, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

As I've been working on my "flight plan" I've been drawing from my reservoir of poker experience and I realize a lot of what I've learned from poker isn't well understood by retail traders. I'll try and summarize my thoughts in this post. I hope it helps my fellow SLAyers. I apologize for all of the upcoming poker analogies.

 

The Goal - the reason for developing a "flight plan" is so that we can define and track our edge. By doing this over time we build an intuitive approach to trading and a trust in our plan and our abilities to execute our plan.

 

Intuitive trading is not the same as doing what feels good. It is forming a habit so that we don't have to think about each trade as they develop. We see a DL break, a pullback and we set our entry and our stop without wasting mental energy. It's building "muscle memory". When Michael Jordan steps on a basketball court he isn't thinking, he is reacting. He has built habits and uses these habits to drive his actions of the court. When the game is over he watches tape of the game and analyzes what he did right and what he could improve on. When he finds some weakness in his game he goes to the gym and practices that element over and over until it is automatic.

 

I think most of us understand this but we don't know how to "go to the gym", we sim endlessly and we look at historical charts but what are we practicing? Would Michael Jordan get to the skill level he has if he just played pickup basketball day after day? So where to begin?

 

In poker the primary starting point is EV; expected value. Expected value is defined as (average win x win %) - (average loss x loss %). In poker the EV of any hand can be calculated but only if you keep statistics. If you have played 1000 hands of AK you can calculate your EV for that hand with reasonable certainty. If a hand has a positive EV then you are making money with that hand, if it has a -EV then you are losing money with that hand. You can maximize your overall EV by removing hands with -EV.

 

A poker player also needs to consider variance. Let's say that I am looking at my results when I play the hand 65. Let's say my win percentage is very near 25% and my EV with this hand is 0.05 antes (the equivalent of ticks for poker). This hand is showing a positive EV over time but I may consider tossing it. The reason is because this hand is likely to greatly increasing my overall variance. The closer a particular hand's EV is to zero and the lower it's win percentage the more it will increase my variance (swings). Whether to play this sort of hand is up to the individual poker player. If he has enough money and the mental makeup to handle big swings in his account he may keep any positive EV hand in his overall strategy. (I've included a screenshot of the results on one of the best poker players in the world. Note his best and worst days as well as some of the swings he had to endure. This player does not turn down any +EV hand.) On last point about all this that is important. The lower the win rate of a hand in poker the larger a sample you need to accurately determine it's true EV. Don't be fooled by strong results with low win rates over small samples.

 

So how does this work for traders? If you want to be a discretionary trader it starts with observation (http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/15896-how-do.html#post176152). When you see something that you suspect might have an edge then the first step is to find at least 30 instances of this behavior. Let's use the hinge as an example. Find 30 times a hinge forms on your trading chart.

 

Next comes trade execution and management. You need to define how you will enter on the hinge and how you will manage your trade once it is entered. This is a huge stumbling block for poker players. If a poker player has a setup (let's say he is dealt the hand AK) he might know he should play this hand, he might even know he should raise to maximize his EV but this is where most poker players stop and fail. They don't actually have a plan. They raise to 4 times the ante one time and 3 times the next. They don't know what to do if they are re-raised by another player (should they fold, call or re-re-raise?). They don't know what they are going to do if they completely miss the flop (bet or check?) or how best to maximize their EV when they hit a hand. They especially don't know when to fold.

 

What ends up happening is they make a plan on the fly. (I'm going to bet the flop and fold to any resistance; I'm going to call one bet to see one more card). The disaster with this approach is there is nothing to measure. There is no metric to help the poker player. He isn't following a pre-defined plan so his results don't relate to or test a plan. Without the plan there is no way to improve, there is no way to maximize EV and there is plenty of fear. Even worse - they are often rewarded by winning a pot. They don't realize how much EV they are leaving on the table each time they are dealt AK.

 

Trading is a little different than poker in one important way. With trading you are never forced to play a marginal hand. You can sit back and wait for a premium hand without any real drawback other than time lost (opportunity cost). In poker you will go broke from the ante if you forgo too many marginally + EV situations. In poker there are three main focuses for a strategy, maximize EV, minimize risk and maximizing emotional control. A poker player might forgo playing certain hands because sitting on the sidelines allows him to keep calm which in turn improves his overall play. How to balance these three considerations is a personal decision but one that should be based on your particular makeup. This will define the style of your trading.

 

A note about money - in poker you exchange money for chips. You measure your results in relation to the size of the ante. You try to think in terms of ante not money. The EV of AA might be 2x the ante as an example. The same thing should be done in trading. Concern yourself with the EV of a setup and frame it in terms of ticks. Turn off you P & L if possible during the session.

 

So you collect 30 (or more) instances of a hinge. You come up with a trade management strategy for trading the hinge; how you will enter, how you will move your stop, where you will take profits or scale out etc. You now can create a theoretical EV for this setup. Now you forward test or simulate this trade in real time. Now your statistics that you collect are meaningful and will lead to improvement. You can make adjustments to your entries and exits that maximize the EV of a hinge. All setups should be treated in this exact manner: observation leads to a hypothesis/setup leads to a rough determination of the edge leads to a management plan leads to quantifiable results and improvement.

 

We now have a theoretical win percentage for our hinge setup and an average number of ticks this trade should yield. If we were computers this would be enough but we also need to consider errors that might arise.

 

In poker there are five common errors.

 

1 - not playing a hand that you should - you are dealt JT but you are nervous or distracted or have been losing and you don't play the hand.

2 - playing a hand you shouldn't - you are bored or on a win streak or distracted and decide to play a marginal hand.

3 - playing a hand differently than you planned to - you don't hit a flop at all with AK. Your plan says you should fold but you decide to pay to see one more card.

4 - chasing - you have a straight draw but you overpay to see if you can make your hand.

5 - making a mechanical mistake - you want to raise to 4 times the ante but you put out more chips than you intended.

 

The trading equivalents here should be obvious. Most of these mistakes also contain a psychological component. You are nervous or scared or greedy or euphoric and this causes you not to follow your own rules. If you track these mistakes they will either cause you to better follow your plan or modify your plan to better suit your personality. They will also show you explicitly how much you are losing by going off the map. Lastly, you will be able to identify situations where you plan is inadequate or where being aware of a particular context cue might greatly increase your win rate or EV. Without tracking mistakes you inadvertently taint the data you are collecting on your setups.

 

Some of you may know that I enjoy lifting weights. There are many good reasons for this. In weight lifting you can set lofty goals. You can wake up today having never lifted weights in you life and decide you want to be able to squat 300 lbs. You go into the gym and you can only squat the bar (45 lbs) but you talk to some people who know more than you and you come up with a plan. You decide to do a certain number of reps and sets every other day and incrementally increase the load on the bar. You create a workout log where you track what you are doing each time you lift. You can see where you are getting stuck. Maybe you work up to squatting 150 lbs but you stop progressing. You modify some aspect of your lifting plan. You eat more, you sleep more, you increase your volume etc. Pretty soon you are squatting 200 lbs. You make these seemingly tiny incremental changes and over time you can reach your goal and more.

 

The reason I bring this up is because none of this improvement is possible without keeping records. You can't tell where you are stuck. You can't make sensible increases in weight. You don't create any sort of positive feedback for your efforts. Poker (or trading) without records is like going into the gym each day, putting 300 lbs on the bar and trying to squat it. You are going to fail and build a negative image of yourself and your abilities. You remove all of the positive feedback and instead frame your efforts around failure.

 

When I finish my flight plan I'll be happy to share it with anyone who is interested. Like anything in life it will be up to you to make it your own and to use it. I won't be simming until this work is done.

 

 

Great stuff green, very interesting how things are really similar in both worlds and thanks for your insights.