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[DbPhoenix 42]

A DT and a Dog. Here we go again.

 

0931: And here we are at 3600.

[Niko 10]

SO, but still a good trade. You never know.

 

Now we wait for the opening reconciliation.

 

So AMT does it again

[DbPhoenix 42]

The LL, of course, is around 3580.

[Niko 10]

Unusual to post essentially the same chart three days in a row:

 

 

 

 

0837: While most do not like to trade pre-market for some reason, I should point out here that we came within 2pts of the UL after the Claims reports. This provided a legitimate short op. Whether it succeeds or not is of course unknowable. (Edit: short entry came 17m later)

 

 

I guess this doesnt count as a real time call. :haha:

[DbPhoenix 42]

I guess this doesnt count as a real time call. :haha:

 

No, it doesn't count if you do it in advance.

 

Getting back to business, I don't believe I ever posted a chart of the next-older TC from March. If I did, I can't find it. In any case, here is an updated copy. Note that we are well back within the limits of the March channel.

 

That deep and extended oversold period drags the mean down, so it may actually be lower than drawn. But I've learned not to play with this stuff too much, so I'll leave it as is until the mkt tells me different.

 

And in case anybody's wondering, the original short is now worth 64pts. The second short is worth 61.

Edited April 26, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

I guess this doesnt count as a real time call. :haha:

 

No, it doesn't count if you do it in advance.

 

Getting back to business, I don't believe I ever posted a chart of the next-older TC from March. If I did, I can't find it. In any case, here is an updated copy. Note that we are well back within the limits of the March channel.

 

That deep and extended oversold period drags the mean down, so it may actually be lower than drawn. But I've learned not to play with this stuff too much, so I'll leave it as is until the mkt tells me different.

 

And in case anybody's wondering, the original short is now worth 64pts. The second short is worth 61.

[Niko 10]

No, it doesn't count if you do it in advance.

 

Getting back to business, I don't believe I ever posted a chart of the next-older TC from March. If I did, I can't find it. In any case, here is an updated copy. Note that we are well back within the limits of the March channel.

 

That deep and extended oversold period drags the mean down, so it may actually be lower than drawn. But I've learned not to play with this stuff too much, so I'll leave it as is until the mkt tells me different.

 

And in case anybody's wondering, the original short is now worth 64pts. The second short is worth 61.

 

Well, a VREV at PDL was not what I expected :doh:

[DbPhoenix 42]

1010: Bounced off the March mean near 40.

[green.green 10]

This will be my journal to profitability. I've been studying trading for almost 3 years. After much sifting I've finally found Wyckoff and DBP and a method that makes sense to me. Currently my biggest weakness is in pre-market prep and analyzing AMT. SLA is so simple I seem able to follow it without much thought.

 

I know that DBP encourages people who are following his method to do it exactly as described but I've never been able to do this. I personally believe each trader must find his own way. Just like two comedians can't tell the same joke the same way and be funny I believe everyone needs to make this method their own. This isn't an excuse to start using indicators.

 

I'll get back to this in more detail but here are my 4 trades from this morning - two winners and two losers. The losers were taken off of a double-top after at DL break and the a rejection after a fanned DL break. I need to do some back testing on double-tops. I never saw a good entry for the long off of yesterday's low since I was still short during the REV.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today's chart:

 

It should be clear from the inset that one who views a chart in hindsight receives a very different picture from one who views it in real time. This is why those who are interested in this are encouraged to replay the charts, from the beginning, and work forward rather than try to analyze a static picture.

 

Edit: As an extension to the chart below, I'm adding the next hour to show how the reversal played out acc. to the SLA/AMT. One could, of course, have played the reversal and entered at 51, but most prefer to play it safe and enter on the first retracement.

Edited April 24, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today's chart:

 

It should be clear from the inset that one who views a chart in hindsight receives a very different picture from one who views it in real time. This is why those who are interested in this are encouraged to replay the charts, from the beginning, and work forward rather than try to analyze a static picture.

 

Edit: As an extension to the chart below, I'm adding the next hour to show how the reversal played out acc. to the SLA/AMT. One could, of course, have played the reversal and entered at 51, but most prefer to play it safe and enter on the first retracement.

[k p 10]

Beautiful reversal trade at 45.

 

This is all almost starting to look too easy. Not saying its easy to trade and profit, but once you do your prep, outline the levels, know where you are, do what you should do, and just sit back and watch and wait, then this is kinda easy.

[green.green 10]

Beautiful reversal trade at 45.

 

This is all almost starting to look too easy. Not saying its easy to trade and profit, but once you do your prep, outline the levels, know where you are, do what you should do, and just sit back and watch and wait, then this is kinda easy.

 

I shouldn't complain but I was disappointed that I missed the reversal. By the time I exited my short it was moving fast and the first decent pullback was at 62 and didn't look appealing to me. I almost took 51.50 but it moved through while I thought about it.

[green.green 10]

Today's chart:

 

It should be clear from the inset that one who views a chart in hindsight receives a very different picture from one who views it in real time. This is why those who are interested in this are encouraged to replay the charts, from the beginning, and work forward rather than try to analyze a static picture.

 

Terrible winrate

 

Silence is a lot sweeter than listening to boo birds. I don't miss ET. Are we going to Big Mike's next?

 

EDIT - I just got some scammy looking e-mail from ET about HFT and the easy money to be made. Yuck.

[k p 10]

Oh am I misreading your chart? Oh yes, I am, the trade there is the exit from the short. When I saw your dashed red line and the trade just above it, I quickly assumed this was your long entry as the bounce from the line.

 

May I ask green, where are you at in terms of trying to go live? Are you waiting to sim some more, are you backtesting more, or still trying out different things?

[green.green 10]

Oh am I misreading your chart? Oh yes, I am, the trade there is the exit from the short. When I saw your dashed red line and the trade just above it, I quickly assumed this was your long entry as the bounce from the line.

 

May I ask green, where are you at in terms of trying to go live? Are you waiting to sim some more, are you backtesting more, or still trying out different things?

 

I'm in the process of developing a "flight plan" - basically a morning checklist where I note all that needs to be noted before the market opens. Once an area of interest is reached it's just SLA which I feel comfortable with and don't need further testing with. I'd like to sim through 50 or so pre-market days, fill out my flight plan and then run the playback around areas I have predefined. I also want to do some statistical analysis around ON highs and lows which can easily be done in excel but will take a little time. I will also analyze the results off these levels and try to figure out what I'm missing so that my game plan each morning is solid.

 

Basically I don't have the right habits in place pre-market. I need a way to force the right behavior and I think some sort of checklist followed by honest post-market evaluation. I don't want to have to do any thinking once the opening bell sounds.

[Niko 10]

Today's chart:

 

 

... One could, of course, have played the reversal and entered at 51, but most prefer to play it safe and enter on the first retracement....

 

It was there for the taking...

 

In the past you have talked about paying attention not only to the diagonals but also to the horizontals, those who did, got rewarded today.

 

It helps. However, my focus was the mean of the March trend channel. The confluence of the three says something about the balance between demand and supply.

Edited April 25, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[k p 10]

I'm in the process of developing a "flight plan" - basically a morning checklist where I note all that needs to be noted before the market opens.

 

This sounds like a good plan indeed. Thanks for sharing.

[green.green 10]

Your UL is drawn incorrectly, but how is this against the rules? The point is to track demand and supply. My chart does just that. And did. Confirmed by subsequent price action.

 

My point was that I was wrong that it was against the rules. As for my UL - how is it drawn wrong? I initially had chosen the highest high between the two lows but when price doubled the range I thought we can move the UL. If the point is to track supply and demand doesn't my channel do this?

 

EDIT - sorry my reading comprehension seems poor today. Sometimes I post and then comprehend. No reply required.

[k p 10]

In the past you have talked about paying attention not only to the diagonals but also to the horizontals, those who did, got rewarded today.

 

I find that the horizontals are actually better at drawing a firm line in the sand so to speak. I see price hesitate more at these levels, and when breakthrough occurs, it does so with force.

 

The diagonals of channels and means according to AMT are a little more fluid in that the channel extremes represent potential overbought and oversold areas, which can get stretched out less or more. It is remarkable how price does sometimes turn right around at a diagonal line, but the firm price levels on a horizontal level like a previous day high or a high on an hourly chart from weeks ago everyone sees much better.

 

Just an observation though. Without doubt, both have to be watched.

[DbPhoenix 42]

It was there for the taking...

 

In the past you have talked about paying attention not only to the diagonals but also to the horizontals, those who did, got rewarded today.

 

It helps. However, my focus was the mean of the March trend channel. The confluence of the three says something about the balance between demand and supply.

[BAO 10]

The above looks eerily similar to what's in the SLA-AMT file.

 

1) Use AMT to identify an extreme.

2) Wait for price to reach it.

2) Start using SLA when that extreme is reached.

 

Can it get simpler than this?

 

Gringo

 

Hi, Gringo, I am very new here, how to use AMT to identify an extreme? sorry for this childish questions, any simple explain of AMT? thanks

 

See the first post in this thread.

Edited April 26, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

There's no need to repost the macro charts of the last few days; they all still apply. I do, however, want to point out that price has been hovering around the mean of yesterday's downmove. This will very likely mean that we do nothing all morning. Or we could take a shot at the UL of the March TC at 3605. Or we could drop to the LL, wherever that might be (FWIW, I'm going to go with 45 again; we'll see what price does if and when it gets there). Otherwise, it will be an SLA day without benefit of AMT.

Edited April 26, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

There's no need to repost the macro charts of the last few days; they all still apply. I do, however, want to point out that price has been hovering around the mean of yesterday's downmove. This will very likely mean that we do nothing all morning. Or we could take a shot at the UL of the March TC at 3605. Or we could drop to the LL, wherever that might be (FWIW, I'm going to go with 45 again; we'll see what price does if and when it gets there). Otherwise, it will be an SLA day without benefit of AMT.

[Niko 10]

There's no need to repost the macro charts of the last few days; they all still apply. I do, however, want to point out that price has been hovering around the mean of yesterday's downmove. This will very likely mean that we do nothing all morning. Or we could take a shot at the UL of the March TC at 3605. Or we could drop to the LL, wherever that might be (FWIW, I'm going to go with 45 again; we'll see what price does if and when it gets there). Otherwise, it will be an SLA day without benefit of AMT.

 

Thanks, looks like 45 was it, but it just got stuck there.

 

The probability that we would have another V reversal at the same place two days in a row was slim to none. As for the LL, looks to me like it's around 3485.

Edited April 25, 2014 by DbPhoenix