Sandbox

[MRW 10]

Damn I've been rumbled :\ though currently prefer Lord of the Rings Online.

 

I guess I should add something imformative (though I am afraid it is rather negative). Be a little wary of forex yeah it's hugely liquid but most retail 'traders' don't have access to that liquidity. 99/100 'brokers' are actually bookies they are your counter party. Also the volume information is not actual volume it is limit order book changes that are reported. It's decentralised and pretty unregulated. having said that I have traded spot FX both with a 'bookie' and with a proper broker. I am just suggesting there are a lot more things to consider with spot FX than a centralised well regulated market. There is lots more I could say on the subject but better you do your own due diligence.

 

Sorry for the digression I think its important.....back to your normal programming.

 

I've always been more than a little suspicious of the FX market. If the "brokers" are your counter party, isn't this the same as the old-time bucket shops?

 

Not actually buying or selling in the market, but making a bet on direction that the broker takes the other side of or matches with a bet on the opposite direction (less the few pip spread, of course)?

[dla133 10]

Thanks Guys for your input.

[BlowFish 10]

I've always been more than a little suspicious of the FX market. If the "brokers" are your counter party, isn't this the same as the old-time bucket shops?

 

Not actually buying or selling in the market, but making a bet on direction that the broker takes the other side of or matches with a bet on the opposite direction (less the few pip spread, of course)?

 

I don't want to derail this thread DB quite rightly likes to keep things on track here. In a nutshell yes with a couple of notable exceptions (MBT & IB since you ask, maybe 1 or 2 others)

[OAC 10]

Opening a MBTrading Forex account is a good way for newbies to go:

The advantages being:

(1) Flexible hours and no need to quit your day job.

(2) MBTrading allows you to trade mini-lot which is $10,000 or one tenth of a full size lot. Where as in e-mini index futures, a single contract controls about $70,000. That is way too much leverage for beginners, I think many would agree with me.

[BlowFish 10]

Yeah MBT have a good rep right back to there stock days...just be aware as banks tend to work in 100k units small orders are matched differently. You either need other MBT customers as counter parties or enough same side mini lots to make a full unit of the currency to trade with an institutional counter party.

[Shamal 11]

Blowfish,

is forex traded via a DOM with MBT

 

From what you say it would be better to trade currency futures on CME a regulated market and where volume would reflect actual contracts. would it not?

[BlowFish 10]

As I said before I don't want to take this off topic beyond the initial warning but in answer to your questions. Yes & it's certainly worth considering.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Actually, I'm not sure what the topic is. Originally, it had to do with volume. Since FX doesn't have volume, the detour into FX appears to be off topic. So maybe it's a new topic. It seems that the current discussion would better take place elsewhere since those who follow this forum aren't going to have much interest in it (flojomojo tried, but couldn't get anybody to participate). Perhaps someplace in the FX Forum?

[crabbydog 10]

There was a link to a site that had a free course by Hank Pruden on Wyckoff.Anyone have that info?

 

This is his web site although I couldn't see a free course there

 

http://www.hankpruden.com/index.html

[rollotape9 10]

Hello everyone,

 

I am starting a thread where I will be posting real-time trades using the Wyckoff method.

 

I have a daily newsletter that I send to paid subscribers. But, I want to do a real-time trading exercise so that potential new subscribers will be able to judge for himself/herself whether the NL is worthwhile. This NL I post here will be the abbreviated version of the NL but will include all real-time trade ideas.

 

I do trade professionally but I am not a registered investment advisor and all recommendations presented here are for educational purposes only.

 

I hope everyone enjoys the posts,

Rollotape

[rollotape9 10]

Hello all,

 

One thing I forgot to add is that the portfolio size for this real-time trading exercise will be $50,000.

 

Rollotape

[rollotape9 10]

Hello all,

 

My money management rules for the $50,000 portfolio will be as follows:

 

Establish 4 positions with $12,500 allocated to each. This rule is flexible based on market conditions and risk parameters per trade. In a rip-roaring bull market, this portfolio will go on margin allocating as much as $25,000 per position.

 

The portfolio will risk no more than 2.5% of the capital per trade ($1,250) and will risk no more than 10% of the capital on all positions.

 

The objective of the portfolio is to take trades that offer at least a 2:1 but preferrably a 3:1 or higher risk:reward ratio as Wyckoff suggests based on PnF counts.

 

I believe I covered it all.

 

Rollotape

[firewalker 10]

I am starting a thread where I will be posting real-time trades using the Wyckoff method.

 

If you want to post real-time trades, I suggest the chat-room is a better place to do so. Later, or at the end of the day, you can then explain your reasoning approach and include some charts of the setup.

[rollotape9 10]

Hello firewalker,

 

Thanks for the suggestion but I think I will stick with this format. The posts will be time stamped and people will have the opportunity to review the trades if they want anytime in the future.

 

Best of trading to you,

Rollotape

[HAKUNA 10]

. The posts will be time stamped and people will have the opportunity to review the trades if they want anytime in the future.

Rollotape

 

Look forward to that, presume it will be on this thread,

are you trading index futures intraday or stock futures.

[brownsfan019 17]

You should also post your daily blotter here so we can see how you capitalize on your calls.

 

A newsletter that can provide some blotters would be a different approach to gathering new customers since most vendors always have an excuse why they can't possibly show you how many thousands they make daily on their calls...

 

[rollotape9 10]

Look forward to that, presume it will be on this thread,

are you trading index futures intraday or stock futures.

 

 

Hello Hakuna,

 

I will be trading ETFs and individual stocks.

 

Yes, the trades will be posted here.

 

Rollotape

[rollotape9 10]

You should also post your daily blotter here so we can see how you capitalize on your calls.

 

 

Hello brownsfan019,

 

I don't think you will be disappointed. I will be keeping a updated portfolio and posting it to this thread as trades are made. Everyone will be able to see, without confusion, how much this portfolio is making/losing.

 

Rollotape

[brownsfan019 17]

Hello brownsfan019,

 

I don't think you will be disappointed. I will be keeping a updated portfolio and posting it to this thread as trades are made. Everyone will be able to see, without confusion, how much this portfolio is making/losing.

 

Rollotape

 

Right, but my point was to show some proof that you personally make money at what you do.

 

So, join us in the P/L thread or post your blotters here so we can see the actual trades in an actual account being made.

 

PS

no trades today???

[rollotape9 10]

Hello all,

 

1st trade, buy 200 shares of SDS at 64.10, stop at 61.40.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Hello all,

 

1st trade, buy 200 shares of SDS at 64.10, stop at 61.40.

 

Why? How is this related to Wyckoff?

[rollotape9 10]

Hello Dbphoenix and all,

 

The 2 attached SnP daily and SPY hourly charts show the Wyckoff behind the trade.

 

The trades in this portfolio will basically be springs and tests of springs in a smaller timeframe chart with the uptrend and/or at important support on a larger timeframe chart and be upthrusts and tests of upthrusts in a smaller timeframce chart with the downtrend and/or at important resistance on a larger timeframe chart. My favorite trades are a smaller timeframe spring or test of spring when the larger timeframe chart is backing up to creek after a strong potential jump across the creek or a smaller timeframe upthrust or test of upthrust when the larger timeframe chart is rallying to ice after a strong potential break under ice.

 

My rules based on the Wyckoff method are really simple.

 

I will send the portfolio summary this weekend which so far only has 1 trade in it but there will be many more.

 

Rollotape

[Eiger 10]

Hi Rollotape,

 

Nice analysis. It's good to see Bob Evans's 'One-Eyed Joe,' too. There are a lot of elements favoring the short side in your charts, which you describe well. I think you have a few other things going for you in this trade:

 

The figure chart (short-term, 10-point) indicates that the uptrend since the March lows has run out of cause. There was a count across the 750 line and a Stepping Stone count along 780 that targeted the present levels of the ES.

 

There has been a shortening of the thrust since late in March. Wyckoff was keen on following the trend, but was always looking for a change in trend when the waves in the direction of the trend shortened in time and length and/or the counter trend waves lengthened, and this has been happening. As it has been happening, up waves draw less and less demand (volume).

 

The SDS is in a potential spring position.

 

Even though the market rallied into the close today (SPYs) it was a light, No Demand rally.

 

The trade may not work out, but there is more than enough of a Wyckoff Story to go long SDS/short SPY. The main risk as I see it is that the market holds gains here and goes sidesways a couple of days in an effort to absorb supply at these levels before making a run towards 95. Again, nice to see a Wyckoff analysis like this.

 

Eiger

[DbPhoenix 42]

The trades in this portfolio will basically be springs and tests of springs in a smaller timeframe chart with the uptrend and/or at important support on a larger timeframe chart and be upthrusts and tests of upthrusts in a smaller timeframce chart with the downtrend and/or at important resistance on a larger timeframe chart. My favorite trades are a smaller timeframe spring or test of spring when the larger timeframe chart is backing up to creek after a strong potential jump across the creek or a smaller timeframe upthrust or test of upthrust when the larger timeframe chart is rallying to ice after a strong potential break under ice.

 

My rules based on the Wyckoff method are really simple.

 

Thank you for the elaboration and clarification. As you note on your first chart, however, most of your analysis is based on Bob Evans and not Wyckoff (there are no springs, creeks, ice and so forth in Wyckoff's course). While some members may find Evans' adaptations useful, they are not consistent with the content of the Wyckoff Forum as a whole, focusing as it does on Wyckoff's original course.

 

In order to avoid confusion, therefore, I've retitled the thread. This will enable those who are interested in discussing Evans to do so without getting into unnecessary debates about what is or is not Wyckoff.

[firewalker 10]

My rules based on the Wyckoff method are really simple.

 

Rollotape

 

I admit I'm not familiar with Bob Evans' adaptation of the Wyckoff method, but from what I've read in the last couple of posts, it seems this 'version' has a lot in common with VSA.

 

I've seen comments about "an hourly bar that closes poorly on wide spread", references to a "no demand bar", and talk about an upthrust. All this sounds to be like focusing on single bars, which, again if I understood Wyckoff correctly, is somewhat different than focusing on the buying & selling waves.