Sandbox

[eminiman414 10]

I know I am not supposed to be emotional but I am really happy with what I did today. During the session I was not emotional however. I suppose the kind of day has a whole lot to do with being successful vs. the other days but I guess success for previous days would be to have kept the losses small until a day like today rolls around. I will post my analysis in a moment. I've been holding it in since 9:20, bathroom break hahaha.

[eminiman414 10]

First please excuse all the lines. I apologize it if clutters everything up.

 

I'll start with what I think I could have done better and to me the only thing that I could have done was to take the short at 36.75 instead of 34.75. I did not take this short because the entry would have been right around the mean from the ON. This trade may have been scratched then had to have been re-entered possibly but who knows what I really would have done. The rejection of 40 was probably more important than the mean of ON range.

 

First trade was a short. Rode this all the way down to about 07ish which was prepared for. The goal of this trade once we started to trade lower and lower was to hold on for as long as possible and see if we can't get to 07 and if not see where we actually do turn. Considered an exit around 26 but again the goal was to hold on as 23 was an expected level to see "something" happen (not written in prep on TL but have it in my notebook). A fanned SL was noted after we continued lower. We bounce from prices below 18 which again was something that did not surprise me. We shot up and again considered exiting but the fanned SL held as well as 23 and as well the goal was to hold on. After we broke below 26 I drew in the fib ret (not using as a fib but to mark the two rejected prices and the halfway point). Since these were both rejected and they were both areas I had noted I drew it to see if anything would come about and to keep me focused if we traded back up to test 16 or so. We bounced from 07/08 and an inwardly fanned SL was broken so I exited.

 

Second trade long. Obviously given the extent of the first move there was a bit more confidence in taking this long. It sort of happened without even thinking. The first exit happened almost immediately before it so I just kind of jumped in. Once I was in my focus was on the longer term SL and 16-18. We traded back up to 18 had a minor hesitation then continued up. I had this "range" drawn in with the lower end being 16ish so I said if 16 breaks I'll exit if not I'll treat this like a range. We hovered a bit around the middle of the "range" got up near the top and traded a tick below 50% of the whole previous down move. the DL broke so I exited based on not trading above 50% and being at the top of a "range".

 

Third trade short. This one was an iffy one. I wasn't totally convinced with taking this one but again given we did not break 50% if we were to test 07 again I would have wanted to be in. My concern was if this was a "range" then I was entering in the middle which was something I have been trying to avoid. We got to the bottom, traded a bit lower but rejected prices there. We broke the SL so I exited.

 

Fourth trade long. Since I was feeling pretty confident with the flow today I took this trade long. Being at the bottom of a range calls for a long if the entry comes about. 50% or so of the up move was rejected as well. This was probably my favorite/best trade I have ever made. I have profited more from other trades but this one was the longest I have ever held on, I gave price room, and I had a plan each and every step of the way. We started traded up, broke above the middle, but came back although not trading much lower. We then made it back up to the top of the range where we hesitated for a moment then broke through the top/50% of the down move. With this trade if we traded back into the range I was to exit however the swing high/50% of about 24 held so I stayed in. We then formed a minor hinge to which I sat through. If we broke below I was out if we broke up I was still in. Once we broke out of the hinge a longer term DL was noted. Price pulled away strongly from the DL and here I started to go hmm now what do I do. The exit was to have been the break of the longer DL since I did not have any other options. I then draw in a 50% level of the push up which held and I said if this breaks I will exit. This and the DL happened to hold. We began to trade up and the DL was broke but by a tick and mostly because of the time component rather than a move in the opposite direction so I held on. I mean I have held on this long already. The exit was finally after we could not trade above 36 and the DL broke.

 

Today was a great SLA day and adding in the other nuances helped tremendously. I definitely think that first trade had a ton to do with having a bit more of an indifferent attitude about the rest of the trades for the day. Missing the first trade or trying to get in too late and maybe having to scratch or get stopped out could have caused me to not take the first long trade or wait to long. Not noting the two rejections at 16/23 if I blinked maybe I don't draw in the box. Moving forward I have to maintain this level of focus and attention to what is going on in front of me. Drawing some of these lines in absolutely helped me as well. This was a far "easier" day than the previous days but as I said before these days do come and they have to be taken advantage of and the other days the losses have to be kept small.

[Niko 10]

Well, well, well. Some trend at last!!!. And it was both ways, although I only took the ride down and held as much as I could.

 

After my premarket post, buyers made one last attempt to find bigger fools above 41, but failed and by the open selling was pushing prices below the DL.

 

1. So I followed protocol and waited for the RET, but this one was scratched as buyers kept on buying at the PM low.

 

What happened next was decisive, as buyers failed to absorb offers above the 50% at 38 and the SL from 41 was still intact a new RET formed giving me the opp to short again, but I doubted as we were still above the PML and failed to place the order, something I would regret later.

 

2. Well, they definitely wanted to go down, the waves were clean, no more of that deep RET crap from last week, so as a new RET came I took it, but now I knew this one was not gonna be that easy and that my 2 point exit policy might be tested easily, so I decided to hold and wait for LSH to be taken out, I know I was riskier, but if I had entered at the level I was supposed to (3 points above) I wouldn't be worried for the trade until that LSH was taken so I decided to forget about my entry and just keep on reading price. After a small congestion that failed to even make a DT price kept on falling. Given what had occurred during the past two weeks I was expecting a significant move so I looked for reasons to stay in the trade and therefore did not care much about fanning in the line so that it would be to tight. That is why I ignored the DB at 9:53 I have seen these "gotcha" RETs before and I was not about to exit on it.

 

By this 10:00 we were already (we as in Kp and me) looking for places where we could find significant demand. and that is when 14 showed up, it was the low of Friday and near the apex of the hinge from the 28th. But it was crossed easily and it was only until they reached 7 (bottom of the hinge and low of the 28th) that buyers finally showed up. And started pushing hard.

 

But I was not really interested in exiting right away, so I decided to hold and see what happened around LSH that by that time was at 24 and was just below the 50% level from the top.

 

The SL was broken but after that buyers stalled at first at 21, the first thing that came to my mind was to exit at 22, but then as I saw the way in which buyers struggled getting to 24 I decided that if 50% was not breached I wanted to give sellers the benefit of the doubt and allow them the opp to make a LL.

 

But they couldn't, they gave up at 50%, so there was really not much of a reason to stay in the short so I decided to close above the SH at 18.50.

 

It was already 11:00 and I had to be somewhere else, so I did not SAR the trade (that would have been a good idea worth around 10 pts.)

 

I am still not comfortable exiting at important levels, that is something I really need to work on, as for example, exiting around 15 today seems like the way to go.

[Niko 10]

And the 20 tick picture.

[Niko 10]

First please excuse all the lines. I apologize it if clutters everything up.

 

I'll start with what I think I could have done better and to me the only thing that I could have done was to take the short at 36.75 instead of 34.75. I did not take this short because the entry would have been right around the mean from the ON. This trade may have been scratched then had to have been re-entered possibly but who knows what I really would have done. The rejection of 40 was probably more important than the mean of ON range.

 

First trade was a short. Rode this all the way down to about 07ish which was prepared for. The goal of this trade once we started to trade lower and lower was to hold on for as long as possible and see if we can't get to 07 and if not see where we actually do turn. Considered an exit around 26 but again the goal was to hold on as 23 was an expected level to see "something" happen (not written in prep on TL but have it in my notebook). A fanned SL was noted after we continued lower. We bounce from prices below 18 which again was something that did not surprise me. We shot up and again considered exiting but the fanned SL held as well as 23 and as well the goal was to hold on. After we broke below 26 I drew in the fib ret (not using as a fib but to mark the two rejected prices and the halfway point). Since these were both rejected and they were both areas I had noted I drew it to see if anything would come about and to keep me focused if we traded back up to test 16 or so. We bounced from 07/08 and an inwardly fanned SL was broken so I exited.

 

Second trade long. Obviously given the extent of the first move there was a bit more confidence in taking this long. It sort of happened without even thinking. The first exit happened almost immediately before it so I just kind of jumped in. Once I was in my focus was on the longer term SL and 16-18. We traded back up to 18 had a minor hesitation then continued up. I had this "range" drawn in with the lower end being 16ish so I said if 16 breaks I'll exit if not I'll treat this like a range. We hovered a bit around the middle of the "range" got up near the top and traded a tick below 50% of the whole previous down move. the DL broke so I exited based on not trading above 50% and being at the top of a "range".

 

Third trade short. This one was an iffy one. I wasn't totally convinced with taking this one but again given we did not break 50% if we were to test 07 again I would have wanted to be in. My concern was if this was a "range" then I was entering in the middle which was something I have been trying to avoid. We got to the bottom, traded a bit lower but rejected prices there. We broke the SL so I exited.

 

Fourth trade long. Since I was feeling pretty confident with the flow today I took this trade long. Being at the bottom of a range calls for a long if the entry comes about. 50% or so of the up move was rejected as well. This was probably my favorite/best trade I have ever made. I have profited more from other trades but this one was the longest I have ever held on, I gave price room, and I had a plan each and every step of the way. We started traded up, broke above the middle, but came back although not trading much lower. We then made it back up to the top of the range where we hesitated for a moment then broke through the top/50% of the down move. With this trade if we traded back into the range I was to exit however the swing high/50% of about 24 held so I stayed in. We then formed a minor hinge to which I sat through. If we broke below I was out if we broke up I was still in. Once we broke out of the hinge a longer term DL was noted. Price pulled away strongly from the DL and here I started to go hmm now what do I do. The exit was to have been the break of the longer DL since I did not have any other options. I then draw in a 50% level of the push up which held and I said if this breaks I will exit. This and the DL happened to hold. We began to trade up and the DL was broke but by a tick and mostly because of the time component rather than a move in the opposite direction so I held on. I mean I have held on this long already. The exit was finally after we could not trade above 36 and the DL broke.

 

Today was a great SLA day and adding in the other nuances helped tremendously. I definitely think that first trade had a ton to do with having a bit more of an indifferent attitude about the rest of the trades for the day. Missing the first trade or trying to get in too late and maybe having to scratch or get stopped out could have caused me to not take the first long trade or wait to long. Not noting the two rejections at 16/23 if I blinked maybe I don't draw in the box. Moving forward I have to maintain this level of focus and attention to what is going on in front of me. Drawing some of these lines in absolutely helped me as well. This was a far "easier" day than the previous days but as I said before these days do come and they have to be taken advantage of and the other days the losses have to be kept small.

 

Great trading emini!

[k p 10]

It is interesting how on your chart you have a note about re-entering at the same level you exited. I too have struggled with this. It is such a mind game to first worry about the fact that you took a loss by exiting, and then ended up at the exact same place you started, and then you wonder if you should try again, after being wrong the first time. Now of course I can catch myself that what is in fact happening is that I am afraid to be wrong, which is incompatible with proper trading, but I know I think like this, and working hard to change it.

 

Not sure what goes through your mind when you get right back to the level you first entered at after exiting for a loss and then wondering if you should get in again, but it sure is such a mental game!

[Niko 10]

It is interesting how on your chart you have a note about re-entering at the same level you exited. I too have struggled with this. It is such a mind game to first worry about the fact that you took a loss by exiting, and then ended up at the exact same place you started, and then you wonder if you should try again, after being wrong the first time. Now of course I can catch myself that what is in fact happening is that I am afraid to be wrong, which is incompatible with proper trading, but I know I think like this, and working hard to change it.

 

Not sure what goes through your mind when you get right back to the level you first entered at after exiting for a loss and then wondering if you should get in again, but it sure is such a mental game!

 

Well, I did not do it, perhaps because of the same reason you had. But as you can see in the chart, after the trade is SCR price stalls, a LH occurs and price starts to fall again so even if you place your entry 2 ticks below that small LSL that occurs before the LH in the 20 tick you would have gotten in at a pretty good price. But in order to notice that, you need to be completely detached from your past trade, remember that you scratch to gather new info about price action, some sort of market research that allows you to enter with more confidence.

[k p 10]

Detaching yourself is absolutely key!

[k p 10]

Hey game.. great to have you here. Didn't notice this post till now.

 

My thoughts are that even though you have put an incredible amount of work into figuring out the daily range, which I suspect has some value, when you are about to put on a trade, right there and then, I wonder if all the data you have collected will mean anything, other than to take away some fear perhaps by having your data to fall back onto.

 

I am starting to see why Db says that this stuff just can't be coded too well for automation, and setting up too many rules I think almost goes down the automation path. I think you are just trying to characterize the market so perhaps not fully break it down to the numbers, but I can't help but wonder if even this isn't too much.

 

I know for my own trading, I am trying to keep it incredibly simple, as I already have too much stuff going through my head to even add more. And sometimes I too am sitting there thinking why it turned around just 10 points into the move, but perhaps its more important to just focus on the fact that it did.

 

It is frustrating that in the past few weeks, those solid 30-50 point days haven't materialized. But since we never know what we will get, the secret is to prepare for the worst, and get rewarded sometimes.

 

Looking at your charts, what I see is that you hold onto your losers far too long. I think if you just fixed this one minor point, it would make a world of difference.

 

I too am trying to figure out how to play the opening range, how to get into the move sooner so that I can at least get out for BE, and if the trend continues, I'm already in. I don't have the answers, but when I go over in my head what Db constantly says, its always to do with looking for areas beyond which traders can't find a trade. This is especially important during the opening range.

 

Trading around the mean is tricky, but sometimes I feel its the only way to not get caught getting into a move that is about to reverse. Perhaps even then waiting for the range to clear is even better. We are all eager to trade, and Db is always suggesting to trade less, wait for only the best opportunities.

 

Ok.. just realized I'm babbling so I went back to read your original question. What jumped out at me is that I think you're trying to figure out what kind of day we will have based on what has happened. The thing is, we will never know. AMT will say that we are at one extreme or another, but there is no reason why the extreme can't go out any further, and there is no reason to say why we can't leave a channel and go into overbought or oversold conditions.

 

Basically, and this is my problem too, I am unhappy with not knowing what will happen, I am not comfortable with the statistical nature of it. But this is exactly what you have to get comfortable with. We don't know what kind of day we will have, we don't know if it will be a trending day or a ranging day. We don't know if we will have a 30 point range day, even though we might be expecting it because we haven't had one for 2 weeks.

 

Also, which I have seen personally as well, the rules I give myself are not well defined. I am still just sort of trying out stuff. This makes it extremely difficult to know what to do when its happening in real time.

 

So I wonder if all this extra work you want to do, all these layers you want to add in, will in fact help when we first need to get comfortable with not knowing, we need to figure out a set of rules we will abide by (the SLA rules are already back tested), and we need to just stick with it.

 

I personally look for retracements in the 15 second chart now, and during the opening range, I look for areas of price that are rejected, especially at key levels. And that's it. If I was also good at re-entries, I think my trading would be even better, but I am slowly getting there. The biggest eye opener has been putting on trades before I even kind of know. Once the move looks good, its too late, and any further entry has to include a possible deep retracement, since often the original entry is tested again. By getting in right away, this test is usually right at your original entry. But if you enter in a few points later, happy to see its moving in your direction when you enter, the test now means you are already a few points in the red.

[k p 10]

Ok.. I think my answer kinda sucks... its too long.

 

Here is essentially what I am saying. Do you think you aren't doing better because you don't know enough? You need to learn more technique? You need another approach? You need more statistics?

 

Or is it perhaps that its because you aren't applying what you know in a very methodical manner that you stick to, day in, day out, regardless of the market conditions, because after all, once we know what kind of day it is, its already too late to maximize on that information.

[game 10]

Ok.. I think my answer kinda sucks... its too long.

 

Here is essentially what I am saying. Do you think you aren't doing better because you don't know enough? You need to learn more technique? You need another approach? You need more statistics?

 

Or is it perhaps that its because you aren't applying what you know in a very methodical manner that you stick to, day in, day out, regardless of the market conditions, because after all, once we know what kind of day it is, its already too late to maximize on that information.

 

Sticking to something regardless of market conditions will only work if what you are sticking to is itself adapting to the market. And adaptation requires awareness of the market's current character. That is why the 'Characterizing a Market' section is included in the SLA/AMT document.

 

The goal is to trade size. Otherwise, why not just open up any old stock chart, figure out the extremes and SLA away, especially since small stocks have much more volatility than the NQ. But money is in size. And that, the wise say, requires in depth knowledge of one's market. We have barely scratched the surface.

 

Compiling stats on the Range was a very basic take on this. It isn't about predicting what is going to happen the next day. It is about building a certain situational awareness so that one is dancing to the market's rhythm. And this rhythm does not always change in an instant. You may at times get a rain shower out of nowhere. But more often than not, the market changes like the seasons. The stats track this shift.

 

Regarding my performance - It ain't all that dire kp Incremental improvements, some seen and some unseen. After all, we are all working towards something that will last a lifetime.

[k p 10]

Sticking to something regardless of market conditions will only work if what you are sticking to is itself adapting to the market. And adaptation requires awareness of the market's current character. That is why the 'Characterizing a Market' section is included in the SLA/AMT document.

 

The goal is to trade size. Otherwise, why not just open up any old stock chart, figure out the extremes and SLA away, especially since small stocks have much more volatility than the NQ. But money is in size. And that, the wise say, requires in depth knowledge of one's market. We have barely scratched the surface.

 

Compiling stats on the Range was a very basic take on this. It isn't about predicting what is going to happen the next day. It is about building a certain situational awareness so that one is dancing to the market's rhythm. And this rhythm does not always change in an instant. You may at times get a rain shower out of nowhere. But more often than not, the market changes like the seasons. The stats track this shift.

 

Regarding my performance - It ain't all that dire kp Incremental improvements, some seen and some unseen. After all, we are all working towards something that will last a lifetime.

 

We are absolutely working towards something for a lifetime no doubt!

 

I hope it didn't come across as I was making a poke about your performance... mine is certainly nothing to look at. I just meant that I see you holding onto a losing trade for quite a while and wonder if you at least had a blanket rule of getting out at 3 or 4 point loss, it would be better. This of course all comes back to the initial entry and where it was in relation to the move.

 

Perhaps what I am really getting at is that the entry is most crucial. When you get in right at the beginning, at an ideal price, a test of a level never causes you to lose more than a point or two. This way, you don't have to worry if its a range day or a trend day, let that all work itself out below while you are a few points in the clear. This is my thinking. If it ends up being a range, you have time to get out as price comes back to you, and if its a trend, your'e already in.

 

I fully agree about trading size. 10 contracts at 5 points is $1000 a day... and I consider this more than enough. Anything more is gravy, and 5 points is absolutely possible each and every single day. Of course there are those that can do 30-50 contracts and hang on during congestion for the 50 points day, and perhaps this is something to work towards, but my initial goals are the best entries, controlling losses, consistent results, and ability to extract points in both a trending and ranging market.

[DbPhoenix 42]

While I encourage hypothesizing and testing, I should point out that the SLA is continuously adaptable and self-correcting, if employed correctly. As Douglas points out, every moment is unique and the outcome of any given trade is unknowable. If one is able to place better trades by assessing probabilities, all to the good. But, as the funds say, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Therefore, being able to evaluate the dynamics of a given situation in the moment is critical. If one can't do that nor learn how to operate in an environment of uncertainty, then this approach will be of little or no benefit.

Edited February 14, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[game 10]

While I encourage hypothesizing and testing, I should point out that the SLA is continuously adaptable and self-correcting, if employed correctly. As Douglas points out, every moment is unique and the outcome of any given trade is unknowable. If one is able to place better trades by assessing probabilities, all to the good. But, as the funds say, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Therefore, being able to evaluate the dynamics of a given situation in the moment is critical. If one can't do that nor learn how to operate in an environment of uncertainty, then this approach will be of little or no benefit.

 

Its been easier to evaluate the dynamics of a given situation, once there is a certain base level awareness of the broader context. As you have said earlier, in general, May does not trade like Sept, which in turn does not trade like Jan. Another example would be trading the first 90 to 120 min of the day session. If I recall correctly, you had mentioned that the reason for trading the first 90 mins of the day was because experience had taught you that there is very little marginal benefit of extending the session beyond this time, unless price is trending strong. This can be verified by studying what % of the Daily Range is comprised of the 120 min Range. So if I know that this number is very high, it will form my base dynamic, upon which the unique dynamic of the present will play out. Thus, I will require a very strong case to be made by PA markers in order to nullify the information suggested by the longer term stats.

 

Been reading the 'Zen and the art of Poker' book where it talks about rhythm and fitting yourself into the flow of the game. Not having the wisdom from years of experience, an intensive study of the market's shifting character would help in detecting these shifts of rhythm.

Edited June 3, 2014 by game

[Niko 10]

Overnight, buyers let us know that they were really not interested anymore above 36, then it was the turn of their counterparties, but so far they ave not been able to get through 14, from a mean perspective, the mean of yesterday´s fall is 25, if we consider the distance from 36 to 25 (11 pts) and subtract it from the mean, if is a mean reverting day 13 should provide some buying and a hinge like figure will appear in prices.

 

So according to that, a fall below 13 could be an indication of sellers resolve to get rid of their contracts. Anyway even if 13 is taken 07 still there so we will have to see if we can escape the gravity force of this mean or not.

 

If not, then someone could be interested in trying up, in which case they have to break 40.

 

In the meantime, and zooming in we are stuck between 15 and 17.

 

I am gonna take some demo REVs with the real life RETs. and see how it goes.

[eminiman414 10]

Today I am waiting for 40 or 07 and see what happens. That gives us a 33 point range which if taking a RET trade as opposed to a reversal gives us enough room if these two points act like a range. The area between 28 and 15 might not be too forgiving to trade within. If we do test 40/07 and don't break and do get an opportunity to trade back toward that area I will have to stay alert to what may happen btw 28 and 15 if anything.

 

Yesterday was also eye opening in terms of waiting for an extreme to be tested and the potential it may bring as opposed to trading in the middle or somewhere in btw. Not much action over 40 so we had to go somewhere else.

[eminiman414 10]

Still might be forming a larger hinge as well.

[Niko 10]

4 minutes for the open, buying pressure has moved prices out of the micro range and we are currently testing 17 from above. The 50% of the fall from 35 is 25 and as emini said seems like we are inside a hinge in the hourly.

[eminiman414 10]

No trades yet. Trades considered in green and red and the 15min with where we sit now.

[Niko 10]

Although it wasnt a wonderful trend, the moves are cleaner than the ones we had over the past two weeks.

 

We couldn't escape mean reversion today, as prices tried to get away from 25 they were pulled by "gravity" and went all the way to 35 where they had not been able to find any trades yest afternoon and couldn't either today.

 

Two trades were taken:

 

1. As buyers came in strong at 15 (opp to REV at green dot) not taken and managed to mark a HH I waited for the RET and entered long, It was a struggle all the way to the top, but LSLs held all the way to 35 where we got our first LH.

 

2. Given that the DL had been broken and we had a RET from the LH I SARed the trade, but it did not go anywhere triggering a SCR.

 

After that a hinge formed and then it was broken, but it came back in really rapidly forming a TC like environment, so I decided to stay away. as the TC was broken we were going against the mean at 25 and it was almost 11:00 so i decided to call it a day.

[Niko 10]

And the 20 tick perspective. I am also attaching the 60 min chart that I used during the session.

[Niko 10]

Given that Db has provided us with a thoroughly detailed characterization guide why dont we use it and see what comes out of it. Lets start with the begining which is understanding and characterizing PM conditions for the NQ. We could choose date ranges so we can all contribute. For example one could start with Jan-Apr 2013 and the other start with May-Jun 2013, if we get 4 of us to put some hours into this, we would characterize a year very little time. Just my 2 cents.

 

"If beginning with a day:

• How does your market behave overnight?
  
• Is it flat and listless?
  
• Or does it provide clues as to where buyers and sellers may be found?
  
• If there is a pre-market report coming up, do traders anticipate the results or do they lie in wait? Are certain levels tested repeatedly?
  
• Broken? Reset?
  
• Are prices trending upward or downward?
  
• What are the extents and durations of the waves?
  
• Does the pace change at any point? In what way?
  
• What effect does the change have on price movement?
  
• Are any nearby previous levels of supply or demand probed and tested? How?
  
• What is the result?
  

"

 

I am gonna be having trouble with my afternoon availability during the next 2 weeks, but I will take some hours here an there to do this. Lets see if someone else wants to join.

[eminiman414 10]

Hmm my question would be what would you plan to get out of all of this that SLA and AMT wouldn't already tell you? Since the market is always changing in some regard what happened last year may have absolutely no relevance which DB pretty much stated that the past results may not lead to future results. Recently I have been taking more detailed notes and trying to stay up on my prep/planning and I feel like that in and of itself is characterizing what's going on right here and now.

 

Take for example today just taking notes on where we reversed, how we reversed, where we moved a bit sideways etc etc, compare that with the prep/ larger interval context and to me it all kind of starts to make sense. For me I'd rather put that time that would be spent characterizing and do replays and gain screentime/trading experience when price is actually moving in front of me (although it always is). "Practice" my planning/prep via replay and trade accordingly. Entries/exits/holding on/gauging these real time moves is where I need/can never put in enough work.

[game 10]

Given that Db has provided us with a thoroughly detailed characterization guide why dont we use it and see what comes out of it. Lets start with the begining which is understanding and characterizing PM conditions for the NQ. We could choose date ranges so we can all contribute. For example one could start with Jan-Apr 2013 and the other start with May-Jun 2013, if we get 4 of us to put some hours into this, we would characterize a year very little time. Just my 2 cents.

 

Forming hypotheses first will give the data collection a purpose. One could always find relationships just from organizing the raw data, but that will be more hit or miss. So I was hoping we could use this thread more for bouncing off broad ideas.

Edited June 3, 2014 by game

[game 10]

Hmm my question would be what would you plan to get out of all of this that SLA and AMT wouldn't already tell you? Since the market is always changing in some regard what happened last year may have absolutely no relevance which DB pretty much stated that the past results may not lead to future results. Recently I have been taking more detailed notes and trying to stay up on my prep/planning and I feel like that in and of itself is characterizing what's going on right here and now.

 

Take for example today just taking notes on where we reversed, how we reversed, where we moved a bit sideways etc etc, compare that with the prep/ larger interval context and to me it all kind of starts to make sense. For me I'd rather put that time that would be spent characterizing and do replays and gain screentime/trading experience when price is actually moving in front of me (although it always is). "Practice" my planning/prep via replay and trade accordingly. Entries/exits/holding on/gauging these real time moves is where I need/can never put in enough work.

 

When we gather stats around the trades that we take, we are already characterizing the market to a degree. Complete characterization of the market involves a more exhaustive approach. In fact, it is because the market is dynamic, that ongoing characterization is needed. The idea to start this process from months back was only to establish some sort of base level, so that the current environment can be seen in it's proper context.