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[Seeker 11]

I am not sure I uderstand what you mean.

 

Sorry, my mistake, I misread your chart. Those little arrows made it seem like you were scratching nearly all your trades, even good ones. Makes more sense now, well done.

[Bern 10]

Market before RTH open and areas I will be watching:

[Niko 10]

Prepwork 051614

 

After 11 traders settled around 51, after reaching the LL of the daily hinge. Attempted to break up but found equilibrium again around 66.

 

So far they have not been able to find anymore trades below 51 nor above 67.

 

The overall trend still downsloped, but if buyers show up above 68 a change in direction could occur.

 

The first thing buyers would have to deal with in case they decided value is above current levels is 71, above that, there is not much to halt the rise all the way to 600.

 

If sellers decide to unload under 71 then it could be a little struggled all the way to 40, below that level we have to deal with 30, 18 and 500.

 

As always price can just cut through my "levels" like a hot knife in butter so only act upon this information if RT PA tells you that the trend is changing.

 

As I said before I am not gonna trade REVs, but if I was I would limit them to those that occurred around 41,51 and 71

 

I just read Bern´s prep and realized that we are also at the apex of the daily hinge, so we could be in the middle of a test of this level before heading upwards, if this test fails then they will look for trades on the downside and if that test is as deep as the one on the upside we could be looking for 480.

[Wolfhound 10]

Friday 16th May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview

 

The last few days we have been stepping downwards, and yesterday we made it back down to 40 which is around the mean of the large daily hinge. We then retraced to 72 before the close of the day.

 

Overnight we could not make it above 67, and in the morning we have drifted down to a low of 51, and are currently attempting to get past 67 again.

 

We have areas of congestion above and below us and a number of highs and lows to watch for. First we must test the overnight highs or lows, and then price can decide on its direction for the day.

[eminiman414 10]

Waiting to see what happens around 70 and 50. Using the SLA to judge what the market is telling me around those levels and trade accordingly.

[Wolfhound 10]

Friday 16th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

 

One modest success and three scratches today. I stopped when I felt I was overtrading, and in the wrong area for trades. On days where we get endless trends, these entries can be home runs, but today they didn't work. Time to do some weekend study.

 

 

1. We opened with an attempt to get to the overnight highs. This failed so I put a short on the retracement.

 

2. We reached the overnight low and turned. This time I decided to give price the time to test the supply line. I eventually exited when it broke a swing high.

 

3. Here I decided to go long, and it only lasted until the next bar. This is the 50% point of the fall from a few minutes before the open.

 

4. I waited until we had past the lows and made a retracement before entering a short. Failed on the next bar.

 

5. Another short, again failed on the next bar. Not in tune with the market today.

 

Or the market was essentially directionless. Don't assume that the difficulties arose from you.

 

6. Interesting. After a big rejection of the 50% point we made a retracement for a short. I was not in this one, because I felt I was making mistakes and overtrading.

Edited May 16, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

Ok, this is the last day of my initial live experiment, 2 weeks 3 contracts, 500 USD daily loss. Did not meet my "financial goal" but managed to stay above water, sort of mixed feelings, but a last some observations on real behavior with real money.

 

In the first days, it was all fear, almost trembling before placing the orders and after the entry fear was still there making me exit early on my good trades and creating even more feelings of frustration.

 

As I moved through the first week I worked on improving my ability to let my profits run, something I barely trained while in sim (I focused a lot on entries and scratches). I managed to do that in a consistent way only until yesterday and it proved to be the way to go. And that was after running the first week in replay and noticing the huge differences in P&L between sitting in my hands and overcomplicating the system.

 

Today, I faced once again a tougher environment and got stopped out enough times to hit my daily loss limit again.

 

Regarding today´s trades:

 

1. Traders had decided that down was the way to go, so a short at the first RET was taken at first it went down, but it was rapidly rejected and SCR.

 

2. But just after the SCR nothing happened it started falling again calling for a reentry, but in this case it moved fast against me triggering a second SCR.

 

3. LSH stayed untouched and it started to fall again so a new reentry, at first I thought this was the trend I was looking for , but as soon as we crossed the ONL buying started pouring in and got SCR as well.

 

4. Once again my trade was exited just before prices started to fall again so a reentry was placed, but it was rapidly SCR as well.

 

5. As the stride of the trend was broken, and a RET in the opposite direction appeared I aimed for a Long but it failed rapidly triggering a SCR.

 

6. The failure to go up and down formed a hinge, at first they tried down and failed, and then after breaking above 58 I took the 1st ret, but I failed to acknowledge that it was at 50% (trading against the mean) and it was rapidly rejected triggering the last SCR.

 

Still a great deal of road to travel, before I can call myself competent in this dealings of trading, but I feel I just managed to move up a step.

 

From my perspective, the things I need to consider now in order to improve next week.

 

1. Once a trade works, just leave it alone.

2. Spot the mean and avoid trading against it. If you are in the opposite side of the range and the mean is points away you might consider a trade, but not against the mean.

3. Look for reentry alternatives to the one you are using

4. Train REVs in replay, find what makes the successful ones different from the unsuccessful ones.

[Niko 10]

I am just gonna send you my login and password on choppy days

[Bern 10]

These are the trades today:

[eminiman414 10]

So weird how I feel like I trade like an animal when it's a range entering a bunch of times but on more of a trendy kind of day I do not. Interesting. Today making trades around 50 was probably not the best strategy although I was minimally successful today. I was ready to enter short the first trade at 65.75 but it all happened so fast so took the next RET short. Waited to see if we followed through and we did not so I exited. Entered long next RET and rejecting 52. Next we traded below 50 had a RET so went short. Stopped out on that one. I guess had I waited for 40 to be tested that would have saved me a bit but it is what it is.

[Niko 10]

Well, you had a great day.

[eminiman414 10]

Well, you had a great day.

 

Ehh PnL wise I suppose. Was +3.25. Trading wise I sort of feel I got a little lucky. I wanted to enter before my first entry and I didn't. Everything just moved so fast so I took what I would consider the second entry which puts us kind of right in the middle of things at that moment in time, not saying the middle would have done one thing or the other but from what I've noticed through all of this is that it is riskier. Second entries have not treated me well either yet I still took this one. My first exit kept me out of where most people entered long and had I exited the first trade earlier I probably would have entered in the same spot which would have caused me to miss the entry that I did take. That turned out to be a +1 trade. Entering where most entered long and losing I probably would have re-entered long right in the middle again where again others entered long and would have lost that trade as well. The last trade I didn't even want to take but "just in case" we dropped further I took it.

 

I don't want to talk about feelings but there is a definite difference i've noticed in days like yesterday and the other days where we have had pretty much straight shots in one direction vs. days like today. I'm starting to try to avoid more of the range type of day or at least wait for price to break decisively in one direction if it doesn't break or happens to break later in the day so be it there will be plenty of opportunities in the future. I have also found two probably huge errors in my trading. 1. Afraid to miss the trend so I trade in ranges just in case and 2. fear the reversal while within a trend type of day. I guess that's a stereotypical amateur. It's silly because I know it, I see it, everything in me says okay take this DTDB and I don't and then days like today it's like are you really going to enter here silly??? I almost want to take this person that is inside of me and put it in my chair and let it trade lol.

 

I also don't really "feel" emotional when I trade I think I just over think and over analyze too too much. One thing I have noticed though is that if you catch the right entry at the right time it is so much easier to stay "in the flow" and then you almost don't even have to think about anything. Ehh that's my whiny rant for the week lol.

[Wolfhound 10]

I think 40D is the REV guy. As far as I know he watches the levels where he expects a possible REV, and then when it gets close he goes to a tick timeframe to look for a reversal with retracement. I guess you could call it micro SLA.

[DbPhoenix 42]

It seems to me that you guys may have abandoned the lines too soon. This becomes more evident on a day like today, where using the lines would have avoided a number of losing trades.

 

I suggest that each of you go back, whether in replay or hindsight, and draw in the lines. Then compare that to what you actually did.

[Niko 10]

It seems to me that you guys may have abandoned the lines too soon. This becomes more evident on a day like today, where using the lines would have avoided a number of losing trades.

 

I suggest that each of you go back, whether in replay or hindsight, and draw in the lines. Then compare that to what you actually did.

 

This is what I came up with regarding entries. I am not sure about the first short, but given that DL was broken and buyers failed to hold the HH seemed like the failure was the RET.

 

It is very unfortunate that I did not manage to see this in RT, lets see if I can do a better job next week.

[DbPhoenix 42]

This is what I came up with regarding entries. I am not sure about the first short, but given that DL was broken and buyers failed to hold the HH seemed like the failure was the RET.

 

It is very unfortunate that I did not manage to see this in RT, lets see if I can do a better job next week.

 

A good start, but only a start. Those of you who are doing reviews -- and not everyone is -- should remember that the review has at least three elements. Some of you may be covering these privately, which is fine, but judging from your results, I doubt that this is the case.

 

At the very least, the review should cover the trades that were done. Some of you are leaving it at this. The next step is to detail what should have been done. And some of you are going this far. But the review is relatively pointless if there is no thought given to exactly what one can and will do during the next session to avoid taking the trades that should not be taken and to take those trades that should be taken. And as far as I can tell, no one is doing this.

 

Fear cannot be dissolved unless and until one achieves competence. If one feels competent to solve the problem, fear becomes much less a factor, and the more competent one feels, the less influence fear has, if any. But while all of you are farther along the road to competence than you were at the beginning, none of you are nearly as far as you should be.

 

If you do not complete "proactive" reviews, you will not be much farther along in a year than you are now. If you're still hesitant about where to draw lines or how to define a "break", for example, then you are not yet at the level of competence necessary to put fear in its place. What Niko has done is a good beginning, but the review must go beyond that into a prescription for future trading behavior. "Just follow the rules" is not enough if one has not internalized the rules and cannot apply them without hesitation and without thought. Trading with "discipline" if one is trading a plan he doesn't trust is not productive.

 

You cannot apply the principles of Zen until you know the game perfectly inside and out.

Having the proper attitude of Zen calm and confidence does no good if you do not know the game. Zen will not make up for, or offset, incorrect play. As a result, there is a certain amount of ordinary, old-fashioned work involved in mastering the game, a certain amount of sweating the white beads before the days of tranquility come along.

 

Good [trading] is not a "mood", it is a series of individual decisions. It does not occur by "Buddhistically" meditating ourselves into some dreamlike mental state, but rather by knowing the game well and being in synch with it -- by inserting ourselves correctly into the flow of what is going on in front of us.

 

No Zen attitude will make up for this lack. You may be quite Zen-like and have all the attributes of Zen calm, but if you play incorrectly, the result is that you will get destroyed. Practice, and long hours at the table, are indispensable.

[Niko 10]

Thank you, I will work on improving my reviews next week.

[DbPhoenix 42]

This is what I came up with regarding entries. I am not sure about the first short, but given that DL was broken and buyers failed to hold the HH seemed like the failure was the RET.

 

It is very unfortunate that I did not manage to see this in RT, lets see if I can do a better job next week.

 

If there is a disconnect between RT trading and hindsight review, little progress will be made.

 

For example, if you are to enter at the first retracement after the DL is broken, why not enter at the arrowed bar? If you do, what is your response when price immediately moves against you? If you exit, how likely is it that you will see the rejection of 70 and re-enter? If you don't re-enter for whatever reason, what will be your emotional response if the trade moves on without you? If you don't enter before the bell, will you notice the rejection at 70 and enter below that? If not, why not? What will be your response if you short there and the trade moves against you? How far will you allow it to move if it does so?

 

As for the SL, it might be more acute than you have drawn in hindsight (the dotted line). Either way, are you going to notice the hinge? Are you going to exit? Are you going to wait? For what? Are you going to notice the rejection of 57? What will you make of it? Will you view that as a Dog and enter a new short (if you exited)? What will you make of the subsequent rejection of 51? Will you be prepared to exit your short, if taken, and enter a long at 53? Are you going to wait that long before drawing a DL? If you take the long, are you going to allow price to fall all the way from 61 to 53? Is there something not plotted, such as the 50% level? When you see price reject 53, do you have a rationale for re-entering a long? If you take it, do you see any particular reason why price might not be able to get past 67? If so, are you going to exit there or wait for a break of the DL or look for something else? What are your criteria for action?

 

Looking at it from a DL/SL perspective, would you not draw a DL beginning with 51 as shown? If not, why not? Would you exit at a break? What constitutes a "break"? There is no subsequent retracement for a short, but then there's no subsequent retracement for a long after the SL is broken. Is the rejection of 53 enough to take the long, particularly since price bounces off the DL you've by then drawn? If not, are you satisfied to allow price to rise until it runs out of steam? What will you look for to determine whether or not and where that is occurring (see previous paragraph)?

 

And so on . . .

 

If one has developed a robust structure, it doesn't matter what the market does; the trader is confident that he will be able to deal with it. The focus is meeting the challenge. There's no time or space for fear. On the other hand, if the trader has not developed a robust structure, he will be kicked around like a soccer ball and play an interminable game of catch-up.

 

The market will tell you what it's going to do by what it's doing. There is no "just kidding". You may not be able to understand what message the market is sending, but, in that case, you simply stand aside until the message becomes clear. This has nothing to do with fear. It is rather a matter of waiting for clarity. If that clarity never comes, then doing nothing but observing for the rest of the session may be in order.

Edited May 18, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[k p 10]

For example, if you are to enter at the first retracement after the DL is broken, why not enter at the arrowed bar? If you do, what is your response when price immediately moves against you? If you exit, how likely is it that you will see the rejection of 70 and re-enter? If you don't re-enter for whatever reason, what will be your emotional response if the trade moves on without you? If you don't enter before the bell, will you notice the rejection at 70 and enter below that? If not, why not? What will be your response if you short there and the trade moves against you? How far will you allow it to move if it does so?

 

This is exactly what jumped out at me when I saw Niko's chart. Technically, after the break of the DL, the RET is there for the short at the arrow that you draw, and then it instantly goes against you for what looks like 3 points easily, so this would have to be a scratch for a loss. Then as you say, a quick re-entry is unlikely, and then of course, the bad feeling once price has moved too far away from where the initial entry is.

 

There is another entry that could have been made, two bars after the second short drawn, which would have been filled just below 58, but price went against you right away again to above 61 before it continued coming back down.

 

This is partly what worries me about getting in on retracements as price continues in what appears to be still be a good move. These RETs can very easily go against you by more than 2 points, and holding on is either just hoping, or breaking a rule if you have a 2 point stop loss in your plan. When I look at where the entry under the crest is, and where the SL currently is, if they are too far away, it means you would have to give price way more room.

 

I'm not sure what to do about this of course, just saying that I fully understand the implications of what you say. I know that getting in on the first entry is absolutely critical, because then dealing with all of these RETs doesn't have to concern you. And for this reason, once missing the first entry, I'm hesitant to enter on subsequent RETs because each one is now more likely to be the bottom of the move down, and it feels just like chasing the market.

 

But then I think of the chart you posted a few days ago where you showed all the possible entries or even places to add to a position, and there were quite a few, so perhaps, statistically, you are still better off if you take each one, but be prepared for a few of them hitting your stop loss.

[SIUYA 11]

 

I'm not sure what to do about this of course

 

At this stage I think adding to what DBP is saying - Think about progress - not perfection.

 

Everything is a trade off -

if you enter quickly or enter at every signal you till trade, more get more small losses (or less larger ones) but you will get every entry.

if you enter only on a second retracement, or one that closes below, or one that only follows some other filtered reason - you will get less trades, probably less heat but will also miss some moves.

 

flip flopping between one or the other trying for perfection in capturing everything will do more damage to the progress of getting your process working to perfection.

 

 

//////////////

I had a lovely weekend of dry fly fishing and for those who have tried it you can understand the analogies between trading and dry fly fishing. Wait for the right times, choose a target, choose the right fly, place the fly correctly and wait - amend fly if its not working because you can do so quickly and easily and have reason to from experience - dont worry about the other fish, they will still be there, you wont catch them all, but you will also be more involved and enjoy the process and ultimately thats what pays off....but I digress.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'm copying this here partly because it has as much to do with the subject of fear as it does with trading the SLA, and I want to avoid taking the SLA thread too far off-topic.

 

A good start, but only a start. Those of you who are doing reviews -- and not everyone is -- should remember that the review has at least three elements. Some of you may be covering these privately, which is fine, but judging from your results, I doubt that this is the case.

 

At the very least, the review should cover the trades that were done. Some of you are leaving it at this. The next step is to detail what should have been done. And some of you are going this far. But the review is relatively pointless if there is no thought given to exactly what one can and will do during the next session to avoid taking the trades that should not be taken and to take those trades that should be taken. And as far as I can tell, no one is doing this.

 

Fear cannot be dissolved unless and until one achieves competence. If one feels competent to solve the problem, fear becomes much less a factor, and the more competent one feels, the less influence fear has, if any. But while all of you are farther along the road to competence than you were at the beginning, none of you are nearly as far as you should be.

 

If you do not complete "proactive" reviews, you will not be much farther along in a year than you are now. If you're still hesitant about where to draw lines or how to define a "break", for example, then you are not yet at the level of competence necessary to put fear in its place. What Niko has done is a good beginning, but the review must go beyond that into a prescription for future trading behavior. "Just follow the rules" is not enough if one has not internalized the rules and cannot apply them without hesitation and without thought. Trading with "discipline" if one is trading a plan he doesn't trust is not productive.

 

You cannot apply the principles of Zen until you know the game perfectly inside and out.

Having the proper attitude of Zen calm and confidence does no good if you do not know the game. Zen will not make up for, or offset, incorrect play. As a result, there is a certain amount of ordinary, old-fashioned work involved in mastering the game, a certain amount of sweating the white beads before the days of tranquility come along.

 

Good [trading] is not a "mood", it is a series of individual decisions. It does not occur by "Buddhistically" meditating ourselves into some dreamlike mental state, but rather by knowing the game well and being in synch with it -- by inserting ourselves correctly into the flow of what is going on in front of us.

 

No Zen attitude will make up for this lack. You may be quite Zen-like and have all the attributes of Zen calm, but if you play incorrectly, the result is that you will get destroyed. Practice, and long hours at the table, are indispensable.

 

Beyond all this, however, I suggest that concentration and focus are as important as developing a robust trading plan. There is nothing casual about daytrading. It requires attention. But the attention must be of the right kind. The trader must be honest enough with himself to determine whether he's thinking about what traders are doing or about the status of his trade. If the latter, he needs to stop and pull himself together as no purpose will be served by his driving through the rest of the session. By focusing on the latter rather than the former, his results will only get worse.

 

It is not possible to know exactly what the market will do once the opening bell rings much less what it will do once one has entered a trade. But there is a world of difference between the trader who tenses up and holds his breath while the trade unfolds -- hopefully away from his entry point -- and the trader who understands that anything can happen and anticipates the market's moves, is fully confident that he knows how to deal with those moves, and that he will act appropriately when required to act. If the focus is on these elements, there is no space for fear. It becomes an indulgence.

Edited February 22, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[eminiman414 10]

Plan is to wait for 90 or 65 and see what happens. Based on where price sits it seems like this whole area is a dicey area with hinges and means etc.

[Wolfhound 10]

Monday 19th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

 

We had a giant hinge on friday that only broke out in the evening. Another test for our abilities. Hopefully this week will have a few easier days for those who are trading real cash.

 

We are still close to the mean of the long term daily hinge. The break upwards of last week could not hold past the highs around 618, and we returned to the mean. We are getting into a tight area now and traders will most likely make a descision soon on going up or down. Got to be ready for it this week if it happens.

 

Overnight we started with a high of 591 and moved down to a low of 565 in the morning, with a midpoint of 578. The price is currently sitting just below that midpoint.

 

As with previous days I will watch the action when price tests the overnight highs or lows, and then move to the next levels if we pass through.

[Niko 10]

Well, a new week and new goals, the goal of this week is simple, let go of my trades and focus on price action, forget about your P&L even if you cant see it doesn't mean you cant do the math in your head, so just don't.

 

Instead focus all your attention to read price action, to determine what traders are doing and thinking and trade accordingly, if you have problem with focus just draw a damn line and follow it, but don't get tangled on the line, but instead use it as a mean of focusing your attention to what is happening above or below the line.

 

Remember that detecting chop is not that hard, they are either gonna try up or down at the start, once they fail in one direction they are gonna try the other, if they fail in that as well you have an opening range, and an opening range is a RANGE so remember you don't trade inside ranges, you are not ready for that and the last two weeks proved that, so just don't.

 

Once they define where they want to go, join them and remember that some of them will make a couple of points and quit triggering a RET, that is not the moment to panic, but the moment to hold your guns, that is the market telling you if they want the movement or not so wait for the RET to resolve before acting, that will put you in a position to deal with any nonsense that you end up making if you do it, but if you can avoid doing stupidities, just do.

[k p 10]

At this stage I think adding to what DBP is saying - Think about progress - not perfection.

 

Yes.. for sure progress as opposed to perfection is a great frame of mind. But it should be simple enough to go over last week at least to see how often price goes against me by more than 2 or 3 points and yet continues in the intended direction, and how often scratching early is in fact best, and then of course re-entering. It will just come down to good old backtesting. Great that you had such a good weekend, I was busy as well so couldn't get my homework done, but I'm sure that if I knew by way of enough statistics where the sweet spot of either getting out early and re-entering vs. holding on longer is, then I would feel more comfortable going forward.

 

As it is now, getting in early it just best from many perspectives, so I am focusing on that, even if it means I have to enter in a range perhaps, before a break out of that range.

 

(Sorry if this clutters up the Ghost thread Db... feel free to move it to the off-topic thread if necessary)