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[Bern 10]

Just before RTH open:

[Niko 10]

Poke above 70 just before the open.

[Niko 10]

Something I found. Might be of use.

 

Do you see the hinge beg at 1000?

 

Yes, but missed the entry, I need to do more work on these hinges, I am still doubtful, I marked the entry at 93 but did not take it.

 

Not saying anything should be done about it. But it illustrates a change in behavior. Contrast the movement from 0944 thru 0947 with the movement during the half hour thereafter. Traders are telling you there's something different about 90. You don't need to draw lines to see that. What if anything you do about it is another issue. Ditto with the change in behavior when it hits 98. Little but sideways movement since.

 

Try to avoid reading anything into price movement other than the obvious, which is essentially what the SLA is all about.

Edited May 12, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Gringo 10]

3600 seems important. Failure here could drop price.

[Niko 10]

3600 seems important. Failure here could drop price.

 

Seems like you are on the money, but now those damn fool sellers got scared and stopped pushing at 94.

 

Lets see where this congestion ends up going.

Edited May 12, 2014 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Well, until I shake my fear off I wont be able to make any progress, today an early close was my mistake, there was not break of LSL until after 10:30, so I should have kept part of my long all the way to 94.25 instead I closed all my trades around 86 fearing a VREV.

 

Trades of the day:

 

1. After the open sellers were unable to trade below 70, given the trend I interpreted this as a RET and took the entry but it was short lived and SCR as sellers rapidly moved against me, I thought I could have SCR at BE, but for now lets leave it like that.

 

Sellers tried again, but failed at 69, the same one from PM BTW . THere buyers rapidly came in the market allowing for a REV (did not take it and that was the trade of the day).

 

3. 1st RET after the REV, took it, went all the way up and got me in a comfortable position. But here is where my mistakes piled up, what can I say, another mistake to add to the chain of mistakes of my first live month. How can I fix this, pretty easy, FOLLOWING THE DAMN RULES.

 

4. After a congestion I tried to rejoin the party, but it was short lived and SCR at BE.

 

5. After missing the hinge entry, which I did not take, because I am not really that familiar and comfortable around them, the stride of the trend was finally broken, and buyers were unable to get better prices so I decided to short, but this short did not go anywhere. and had to be scratched.

that

 

It can bee seen that the trade that worked, was closed too early, that amounts to a loss of 8,75 times the number or open contracts, that here would be 3.

 

If by the last you mean the long at 79-80, it wasn't closed too early. It broke the DL and dropped two points. That's sufficient reason to exit and look either for a short ret or a DTDB. Here you get a DTDB, but it doesn't go anywhere, so there are no further trades.

 

Thanks

Edited May 12, 2014 by Niko

[Niko 10]

 

Not saying anything should be done about it. But it illustrates a change in behavior. Contrast the movement from 0944 thru 0947 with the movement during the half hour thereafter. Traders are telling you there's something different about 90. You don't need to draw lines to see that. What if anything you do about it is another issue. Ditto with the change in behavior when it hits 98. Little but sideways movement since.

 

Try to avoid reading anything into price movement other than the obvious, which is essentially what the SLA is all about.

 

Thanks, a lot of details still elude me, fear is still an issue I am struggling with, but at least I am not bleeding my account to death thanks to the SLA.

[Niko 10]

I guess they gave up and went out to grab a bite. Perhaps after lunch they will put their back into it, in either direction.

[Bern 10]

These are the trades:

[Niko 10]

This is an update in the turning point analysis I am performing now.

 

Added the turning points that gave life to waves of 10 points or more on Friday and Monday.

 

16 observations so far 34 to go... :missy:

TURNINGPOINTANALYSIS-LARGE-2.pdf

[Niko 10]

After a slow paced rise buyers finally decided that 318 was too expensive, now they are looking for trades on the downside, but so far they have not been able to find sellers below 09.

 

Anyhow, the upwards stride of the trend is at risk and if there are definitely no buyers above 18 the place to go is down.

 

On the way down we might find buyers along the way about every 10 points, but... If prices do not reverse there is no reason to panic if short, just ride the plunge.

 

If buyers decide that they missed on yesterday´s boat and see value above above current levels and manage to trade and hold the market above 18, then buyers gave up at 670 last time, so it could be a nice ride if a trend sets up to the upside.

 

As always, chop can also be the tone of the day, but we will know that pretty soon after the open, if they look up and cant find trades and then look down and cant find either then they will settle around whatever mean they decide to set. So far it seems like the current mean is 13.

 

The dbl btm at 10 at 0850 wld hv made a gd entry since the range was reasonably well-established by then, as would either of the rets thereafter. This is now hindsight, but this is something to keep in mind for the future.

Edited May 13, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[eminiman414 10]

Right now I am watching 17.75 and 09.50. If we are still in this range when we open I will wait to see which way price breaks and take the RET thereafter. If we happen to break before I will see what traders are up to after the open utilizing SLA if an opportunity arises. I think by now the levels below price have been documented. Above price we will have to see what happens at 18.50 which is a previous swing high. I also have 57,67 and 90 as levels.

[Niko 10]

 

These islands have been criss-crossed so many times the past couple of weeks that they may no longer be pertinent. Traders develop a been-there-done-that attitude. You may benefit by backing off a bit and focusing on the bigger picture, such as this giant hinge, and the upper limit of the March TC.

 

We are BO of this hinge and march TC, so even if they can make it above 18 one has to be on the look for a RET in the hourly that in the 1 min will definitely kill any trend to the upside, without changing the larger picture.

[Niko 10]

9:18 Traders are parked around the mean at 13, waiting for something to happen, perhaps around 12 mins from now .

[Niko 10]

 

The dbl btm at 10 at 0850 wld hv made a gd entry since the range was reasonably well-established by then, as would either of the rets thereafter. This is now hindsight, but this is something to keep in mind for the future.

 

Thanks, I thought about it but I am not really taking trades premarket now, perhaps later anyway, even if I managed to get in a REV it would have been SCR given my exit rules.

[Niko 10]

9:59 Two SCR so far, seems like they dont like it above 21 nor below 04, managed to stay away from the mean

It's not so much a question of trading around the mean as trading through it. Once price bounced off 4, it headed pretty much straight for 20, then right back down again. The TR may just be background and not necessarily influential. This is not to suggest that one try to trade these wild swings, but the focus may need to be more on the SLA and less on AMT, given where we are.

Edited May 13, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[k p 10]

"It's not so much a question of trading around the mean as trading through it. Once price bounced off 4, it headed pretty much straight for 20, then right back down again. The TR may just be background and not necessarily influential. This is not to suggest that one try to trade these wild swings, but the focus may need to be more on the SLA and less on AMT, given where we are."

 

 

I am stalking you here too Db! )

 

Niko and I were discussing just this very thing, the difference about trading around a mean versus through it. Thanks for clearing up the important distinction as today, trading through it certainly was profitable and I see this often as well.

[Niko 10]

9:59 Two SCR so far, seems like they dont like it above 21 nor below 04, managed to stay away from the mean

It's not so much a question of trading around the mean as trading through it. Once price bounced off 4, it headed pretty much straight for 20, then right back down again. The TR may just be background and not necessarily influential. This is not to suggest that one try to trade these wild swings, but the focus may need to be more on the SLA and less on AMT, given where we are.

 

Thanks, unfortunately all my SLA entries today were pointing towards 13 so, i skipped them and even if I took them they would have been scratched.

 

I ended up trying to get on a Hinge BO around 10:13 but got SCR twice, been out ever since. Looks like we formed some sort of channel area and we have been ascending around the mean of that channel.

[Niko 10]

Well, by the time they decided to cascade I was not in the mood to trade anymore

 

The long run is longer than you think. Playing only the best hands can be frustrating. Anger and irritability can arise. The emotions can be severely tested. This is where Zen comes in.

 

You may have to extend your trading session.

Edited May 13, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[eminiman414 10]

Made one entry for the day (blue triangle, magenta triangle exit). Marked down 5 other places that I was considering an entry but did not take because they were not a part of my pre market plan and for the most part they were within the overnight range. Two potential entries could have made a few points the other two would have lost a few points and there was one entry that would not have been triggered.

 

The entry I did make I followed what I had planned out. Waiting for an entry above the overnight range. Price made two consecutive higher highs and lows after the open. The second higher low ended at about 15.75 which was above the mean and above 50% of the move from 07.25 to 22.25.

 

I have been trying to be more patient with my entries and trying to become more in tune with how I am as a trader. What situations I do better with versus not. To me I want to use what I have been learning to make a plan for the day that hopefully makes sense with the context of the market and also makes sense for me and the results I have obtained so far. Maybe that is incorrect but watching the bigger swings at the open didn't really bother me because I had a plan and I was able to focus a lot better because I didn't have to wing it saying okay here's a possible entry oops now an exit etc etc. I waited then executed.

 

Given that my long entry did not go very far I suppose the next short SLA trade could have been taken but then that puts me back into the range and I ask myself if it's worth the risk if we stop at the mean/opposite end of the range. I skipped it because I did not have it written out and I have not been too successful trading within ranges.

 

For the future part of my planning could and maybe should include something like if a long above 18 fails I will do xyz etc.

[Patuca 13]

Well, by the time they decided to cascade I was not in the mood to trade anymore

 

The long run is longer than you think. Playing only the best hands can be frustrating. Anger and irritability can arise. The emotions can be severely tested. This is where Zen comes in.

 

You may have to extend your trading session.

Do you actually trade by your mood?

[DbPhoenix 42]

SLA trades so far today:

[k p 10]

SLA trades so far today:

 

Its interesting that the first 3 trades, especially the second and third are practically right at the mean of 12 from the overnight range.

 

Continuing from Niko's journal, I wonder if you can comment on the difference between trading away from the mean, such as the first long or the second short which has to just go through it but the idea being that the short will take us well below the mean, and trading toward the mean, such as if we took the long from the REJ at 3604 which was a prominent level.

 

It seems to me that trading around the mean offers good trades given the right context. We can either trade in the direction of the mean if we are at an extreme and reject it, or we can trade away from the mean if we are at the mean and if we have some idea of where the extreme might be. These seem to work even better during the opening range where rejections of going up or down seem more prominent to put us in the proper direction for where price might go throughout the day.

 

Would love to hear your thoughts.

[Niko 10]

Well, by the time they decided to cascade I was not in the mood to trade anymore

 

The long run is longer than you think. Playing only the best hands can be frustrating. Anger and irritability can arise. The emotions can be severely tested. This is where Zen comes in.

 

You may have to extend your trading session.

 

Thanks, so far is not really easy for me to increase my trading schedule, at least not until I am proficient with real money.

 

Today was a bad financial day, but it felt much better regarding execution and calmness. I ended up hitting my daily loss limit again, but it was not because of anger and frustration and that makes me happy.

 

The emotional part was mainly controlled, but still hesitation after 11 led me to ditch a good trade after the DL from the open was lost. I didn't think it would amount to much and ended up being one of the best of the day.

 

1. Entered too late, left the order without trailing it as price moved higher. Ended up scratching it after sellers failed to hold the LL and got rejected at 04.

 

There was a RET to enter again at 15,25, it was after a rejection of the mean a strong one, not reason not to take it in hindsight, at the time I wanted to see buyers clear the LSH

 

2. This is what I wanted to see buy it was too late, I bought the top, I did not pay attention to mean reversion, as we were almost as far away from the mean on the upmove as we were on the downmove.

 

3. I was now looking for a BO, first attempt did not work and I tried a reentry that got me even worst results.

 

4. After missing the downmove, intentionally i decided to wait and see if they were willing to push below the ORL or not, as they did not I decided to risk a REV, it did not work...

5... but as soon as I got a RET I tried again with the same results.

 

It was the day of the SCR for me.

[Niko 10]

Do you actually trade by your mood?

 

Sure, if i feel I am not 100% focused I end up screwing up and not following the rules, so why mess up.

 

If a trade cant be taken in calm is better not to take it.

Edited May 13, 2014 by Niko