Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

 

 

In a trading range. That's what creates the range. This isn't/wasn't a range. Once you take the entry at 44/45, there's no reason to exit.

 

.

 

I was thinking more in terms of price movement around the mean of 50. I wasn't thinking it was a range. Since we moved up 11 I was thinking down about 11 once we passed through 50. I suppose I was incorrect in thinking that. So only in an already established range that type of thinking would be relevant?

 

Don't pass on a trade just because of something that hasn't happened yet and may not. Take it, and if you have to exit later, then exit. If you don't, then just ride it.

Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's going well. I've gone through a ton of entries and amazingly it seems if you enter in the right spot 6 ticks seems to be about all you ever need. I still have a little more work to do but should be codifying everything over the weekend. I hope your dip in the pool is going well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't pass on a trade just because of something that hasn't happened yet and may not. Take it, and if you have to exit later, then exit. If you don't, then just ride it.

 

Fair enough. Thank you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Those who can't ditch the lines ought at least to do two preps, one with and one without.

 

Thank you I will definitely do that starting tomorrow.

Edited by Niko

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I place this new initiative here, because I believe fear has something to do with the definition of turning points, but I could be wrong (they could be just tired of not finding counter parties and decided to close and reverse).

 

Both. You're looking at both a considered and deliberate move and the fear of those who are caught by it and (a) don't understand what's going on and (b) don't know how to handle it.

 

Now, given than a lot of opportunities come from taking REV entries, and that I am not 100% comfortable taking them just yet I will devote the next couple of weeks analyzing the turning points that occur during the day, in order to observe and share what I see, in the hope that someone can also collaborate in case there is something obvious I am missing (like today hinge at 30 :) )

 

Given that there are multiple trends and micro trends and macro trends in the market I will focus on those turning points that give life to continuous waves of 10 or more points, viewing the market from the perspective of the 1 min chart. Although the analysis is performed at the nano level of 5 ticks.

 

This is a work in progress so all comments are welcome, for starters I don't know if i am compiling the necessary stats or even if this exercise is the way to go. Anyway, I plan to post the regular amount of 50, starting today with 8.

 

I will see how to add context to the stats, but for now this is all I can come up with for the day.

TURNINGPOINTANALYSIS-LARGE.pdf

Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If hinge at 30 is 3534 reversal high at 12 noon than it looks to me it reversed after making 50% retracement. Note on my chart I truncate levels if price trades in same area for consecutive bars like the top 4 bars from 8:10-8:30am, and also the bottom with the long wicks at 10:15-10:20am.

5aa7122015286_NQJune.thumb.png.cde2d008d06a0d7c1d565a0c740f8c10.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If hinge at 30 is 3534 reversal high at 12 noon than it looks to me it reversed after making 50% retracement. Note on my chart I truncate levels if price trades in same area for consecutive bars like the top 4 bars from 8:10-8:30am, and also the bottom with the long wicks at 10:15-10:20am.

 

 

Sorry, I was not clear about the hinge, i was refering to a hinge in the hourly from days ago that i missed in prepwork but that eminiman posted:

 

 

http://cdn3.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/131/38178d1399466739-putting-all-together-nq-06-14-15-min-5_7_2014.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is market just after Unemployment data release.

Prices and areas that I will be watching are marked on the charts.

Yellen testimony continues today and there could be some volatility at RTH open.

5aa712201c846_140508Dpre.thumb.PNG.a651e6f668386a98365944ddc201b914.PNG

5aa7122025e93_14050860Mpre.thumb.PNG.d612a2d622a52c2d1bf5e34f6cd74dd0.PNG

5aa712202c816_14050815Mpre.thumb.PNG.58ca5b974f8ec710d35992c707ae6fa3.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lineless prepwork

 

After a partial recovery towards the 550 eq area buyers considered that the market was too expensive and prices started falling below 48. around 530 there was a new spurt of demand but it was short lived and buyers gave up even earlier around 545. This led to some consolidation between 540 and 544 from where we just exited (8:00). The mean of all of this (600-500) is around 50 and we are currently below it after a failure to get there, therefore weakness is the prevalent force at the time of the post.

 

If sellers conclude that these price levels are too expensive they will dump more contracts on the market, the thing to see is if the buyers who considered 500 a bargain are gonna still be thinking the same after failing to find trades above 48.

 

I can't stand the suspense.

 

:)

Edited by Niko

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Adding lines and 50% (crutches)

 

Things to consider:

 

Above price

 

530

550

570

590

 

Below price:

 

500

480

470

435

 

Where are we? In a downtrend as illustrated tby the down TC, if we reach the bottom it would be around 480 by then coinciding with the level where price was rejected on the 28th of April.

 

Within the context of the downtrend, traders have consolidated around 530 for an hour and 15 minutes before the open they are attempting a break to the downside.

 

Note also that you have a hinge from 1000 to 1500 yesterday with an apex of 18.

 

Yes, thanks, just where we stopped.

hourly050814.png.4b4dabb55460afc7488a8ff24251e0c2.png

minute050814.png.ce0d362038ed5543b75af59d9ab13a00.png

Edited by Niko

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Missed today was chasing a queen bee around my house this morning. It was actually the second one that got into my house in the past two weeks. I am going to have to look into that lol. Should have turned off my monitor and replayed it later but sat down so I know what has happened. Will replay it anyway for learning purposes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems like the 70 area was finally the end of this move, I missed the short, damn!!! :rofl:

 

There isn't necessarily a short yet. Notice that price found support at the LSL.

 

Thanks, I missed it intentionally, still need to put myself together after a good trade.

 

Doesn't matter. It got scratched.

 

Yep, thanks again.

Edited by Niko

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, fear kicked in again, and ended up closing 2/3rds of the position way too early. Still did not get the REV (will talk about it later in the turning points file) but managed to get in at the first RET, then after a struggly initial rise I closed up the first contract at the first sign of weakness, and the second after the break of the DL, Managed to hold myself and allow the last contract a change on the break of LSL and that only happened at 10:32.

 

Lesson to be learned, once again (I might need therapy :crap: , for now will give a new read to the Zen thread.) once the trade is in the money SIT IN YOUR HANDS!!!.

 

I suggest you re-examine what you mean by "sign of weakness".

 

Sure, will do that.

 

Hehehe, thinking about it it was my sing of weakness, my own fear the only thing that got me out at that first level, Well, things to learn and act upon tomorrow and next week.

may8th2014analysys.png.ab7791135d8120842229d37eea7117fc.png

Edited by Niko

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank god you made the volume bars smaller.. I could barely see the price and entries on your recent charts and thought how the heck are you trading that! LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just something I wanted to point out.

 

Yes, which is why we spent all nite at that level. And if you note how price behaved as it reached and worked it way through, creating the first ret at that level, that gave you permission to stay in the trade.

5aa71220b7b63_NQ06-14(1440Min)09_05_2014.jpg.1cc1f6cf7e50be97900141230b1579d3.jpg

Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank god you made the volume bars smaller.. I could barely see the price and entries on your recent charts and thought how the heck are you trading that! LOL

 

Hehehe, I am using sierra for live trading and did not have a clue about how to change the size of the lower panel, found out today by mistake. Glad it helps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Missed today was chasing a queen bee around my house this morning. It was actually the second one that got into my house in the past two weeks. I am going to have to look into that lol. Should have turned off my monitor and replayed it later but sat down so I know what has happened. Will replay it anyway for learning purposes.

 

Dont trade if you can be stung.... I guess that wasn't in anyone else´s trading plan either :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dont trade if you can be stung.... I guess that wasn't in anyone else´s trading plan either :)

 

I should have went long at the double bottom then chased it around. By the time I got back to the screen I would have been a happy camper and missed all the points I may have exited at if I was in. Hahaha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By vishnux
      Hey guys , what are the main things you look for to detect if the consolidation area is accumulating or distributing ? 
      1 ) I see springs in top , still markup happens and it becomes accumulation area and vice versa
      2) There is lots of volume absorption in support line and still markdown occurs.
      3) sometimes in market high / low it becomes re-accumulation  / re-distribution
      Is there any clear way to find it ? 
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • HLF Herbalife stock, watch for a bull flag breakout above 9.02 at https://stockconsultant.com/?HLF
    • Date: 1st April 2025.   Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?   Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend? Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold. Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response. Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.   XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart   The Weakness In The US Dollar Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness. Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country. Can Gold Maintain Momentum? When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price. In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US. The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price. Key Takeaway Points: Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions. Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand. Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation. Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 31st March 2025.   Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.   The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024. Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again! The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025. Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit! A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline. Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.     The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • PM Philip Morris stock, top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?PM
    • EXC Exelon stock, nice range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?EXC
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.