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[eminiman414 10]

 

 

In a trading range. That's what creates the range. This isn't/wasn't a range. Once you take the entry at 44/45, there's no reason to exit.

 

.

 

I was thinking more in terms of price movement around the mean of 50. I wasn't thinking it was a range. Since we moved up 11 I was thinking down about 11 once we passed through 50. I suppose I was incorrect in thinking that. So only in an already established range that type of thinking would be relevant?

 

Don't pass on a trade just because of something that hasn't happened yet and may not. Take it, and if you have to exit later, then exit. If you don't, then just ride it.

Edited May 7, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[green.green 10]

It's going well. I've gone through a ton of entries and amazingly it seems if you enter in the right spot 6 ticks seems to be about all you ever need. I still have a little more work to do but should be codifying everything over the weekend. I hope your dip in the pool is going well.

[eminiman414 10]

Don't pass on a trade just because of something that hasn't happened yet and may not. Take it, and if you have to exit later, then exit. If you don't, then just ride it.

 

Fair enough. Thank you.

[Niko 10]

 

Those who can't ditch the lines ought at least to do two preps, one with and one without.

 

Thank you I will definitely do that starting tomorrow.

Edited May 7, 2014 by Niko

[Niko 10]

I place this new initiative here, because I believe fear has something to do with the definition of turning points, but I could be wrong (they could be just tired of not finding counter parties and decided to close and reverse).

 

Both. You're looking at both a considered and deliberate move and the fear of those who are caught by it and (a) don't understand what's going on and (b) don't know how to handle it.

 

Now, given than a lot of opportunities come from taking REV entries, and that I am not 100% comfortable taking them just yet I will devote the next couple of weeks analyzing the turning points that occur during the day, in order to observe and share what I see, in the hope that someone can also collaborate in case there is something obvious I am missing (like today hinge at 30 )

 

Given that there are multiple trends and micro trends and macro trends in the market I will focus on those turning points that give life to continuous waves of 10 or more points, viewing the market from the perspective of the 1 min chart. Although the analysis is performed at the nano level of 5 ticks.

 

This is a work in progress so all comments are welcome, for starters I don't know if i am compiling the necessary stats or even if this exercise is the way to go. Anyway, I plan to post the regular amount of 50, starting today with 8.

 

I will see how to add context to the stats, but for now this is all I can come up with for the day.

TURNINGPOINTANALYSIS-LARGE.pdf

Edited May 8, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

I will replay the day and post more in depth analysis later in the afternoon.

 

After a round of replay I ended up starting a new research, this time into turning points.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/18384-dynamics-fear-3.html#post192389

[SunTrader 10]

If hinge at 30 is 3534 reversal high at 12 noon than it looks to me it reversed after making 50% retracement. Note on my chart I truncate levels if price trades in same area for consecutive bars like the top 4 bars from 8:10-8:30am, and also the bottom with the long wicks at 10:15-10:20am.

[Niko 10]

If hinge at 30 is 3534 reversal high at 12 noon than it looks to me it reversed after making 50% retracement. Note on my chart I truncate levels if price trades in same area for consecutive bars like the top 4 bars from 8:10-8:30am, and also the bottom with the long wicks at 10:15-10:20am.

 

 

Sorry, I was not clear about the hinge, i was refering to a hinge in the hourly from days ago that i missed in prepwork but that eminiman posted:

 

 

http://cdn3.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/131/38178d1399466739-putting-all-together-nq-06-14-15-min-5_7_2014.jpg

[SunTrader 10]

Ok.

 

15 minute bar at noon was a pinbar too if that means anything.

 

Opened and closed just below 3530

[Bern 10]

This is market just after Unemployment data release.

Prices and areas that I will be watching are marked on the charts.

Yellen testimony continues today and there could be some volatility at RTH open.

[Niko 10]

Lineless prepwork

 

After a partial recovery towards the 550 eq area buyers considered that the market was too expensive and prices started falling below 48. around 530 there was a new spurt of demand but it was short lived and buyers gave up even earlier around 545. This led to some consolidation between 540 and 544 from where we just exited (8:00). The mean of all of this (600-500) is around 50 and we are currently below it after a failure to get there, therefore weakness is the prevalent force at the time of the post.

 

If sellers conclude that these price levels are too expensive they will dump more contracts on the market, the thing to see is if the buyers who considered 500 a bargain are gonna still be thinking the same after failing to find trades above 48.

 

I can't stand the suspense.

 

Edited May 8, 2014 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Adding lines and 50% (crutches)

 

Things to consider:

 

Above price

 

530

550

570

590

 

Below price:

 

500

480

470

435

 

Where are we? In a downtrend as illustrated tby the down TC, if we reach the bottom it would be around 480 by then coinciding with the level where price was rejected on the 28th of April.

 

Within the context of the downtrend, traders have consolidated around 530 for an hour and 15 minutes before the open they are attempting a break to the downside.

 

Note also that you have a hinge from 1000 to 1500 yesterday with an apex of 18.

 

Yes, thanks, just where we stopped.

Edited May 8, 2014 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Struggling with 550.

[Niko 10]

At 70. Here we watch and see if buyers still think this is a bargain or not.

[Niko 10]

Nope, 70 is still a good buy, entering muddy waters though.

[eminiman414 10]

Missed today was chasing a queen bee around my house this morning. It was actually the second one that got into my house in the past two weeks. I am going to have to look into that lol. Should have turned off my monitor and replayed it later but sat down so I know what has happened. Will replay it anyway for learning purposes.

[Niko 10]

Seems like the 70 area was finally the end of this move, I missed the short, damn!!! :rofl:

 

There isn't necessarily a short yet. Notice that price found support at the LSL.

 

Thanks, I missed it intentionally, still need to put myself together after a good trade.

 

Doesn't matter. It got scratched.

 

Yep, thanks again.

Edited May 8, 2014 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Ok, fear kicked in again, and ended up closing 2/3rds of the position way too early. Still did not get the REV (will talk about it later in the turning points file) but managed to get in at the first RET, then after a struggly initial rise I closed up the first contract at the first sign of weakness, and the second after the break of the DL, Managed to hold myself and allow the last contract a change on the break of LSL and that only happened at 10:32.

 

Lesson to be learned, once again (I might need therapy :crap: , for now will give a new read to the Zen thread.) once the trade is in the money SIT IN YOUR HANDS!!!.

 

I suggest you re-examine what you mean by "sign of weakness".

 

Sure, will do that.

 

Hehehe, thinking about it it was my sing of weakness, my own fear the only thing that got me out at that first level, Well, things to learn and act upon tomorrow and next week.

Edited May 8, 2014 by Niko

[k p 10]

Thank god you made the volume bars smaller.. I could barely see the price and entries on your recent charts and thought how the heck are you trading that! LOL

[Niko 10]

Just something I wanted to point out.

 

Yes, which is why we spent all nite at that level. And if you note how price behaved as it reached and worked it way through, creating the first ret at that level, that gave you permission to stay in the trade.

Edited May 8, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

Thank god you made the volume bars smaller.. I could barely see the price and entries on your recent charts and thought how the heck are you trading that! LOL

 

Hehehe, I am using sierra for live trading and did not have a clue about how to change the size of the lower panel, found out today by mistake. Glad it helps.

[Niko 10]

Missed today was chasing a queen bee around my house this morning. It was actually the second one that got into my house in the past two weeks. I am going to have to look into that lol. Should have turned off my monitor and replayed it later but sat down so I know what has happened. Will replay it anyway for learning purposes.

 

Dont trade if you can be stung.... I guess that wasn't in anyone else´s trading plan either

[eminiman414 10]

Dont trade if you can be stung.... I guess that wasn't in anyone else´s trading plan either

 

I should have went long at the double bottom then chased it around. By the time I got back to the screen I would have been a happy camper and missed all the points I may have exited at if I was in. Hahaha

[Bern 10]

These were the trades today:

[Gringo 10]

These were the trades today:

 

This looks like a piece of cake

 

Gringo