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[Bern 10]

Attached there are two charts showing how I saw the market pre RTH open and also a 1 min chart and a 20 sec showing the trades I took in real time.

 

Some comments:

 

1. I exited the short but did not re enter again. I did not "feel" it, I cannot say why.

2. I hesitated taking a long there at the yellow circle but since the news release was in 2 or 3 min, I finally passed.

3. After the news release, I read all this area as a tr-hinge.

4. I hesitated about and did not to take a long. Price went down to meet the mid level-apex of previous tr-hinge and there was the pullback marked at the yellow circle, but I did not read the LOLR as up at that moment.

5. I hesitated and was not very confident to take this trade at highs after having passed previous pullbacks in the upswing but ended entering long.

6. And here I hesitated but I entered short and maybe I should have waited more to see that market was really breaking previous hod.

7. Entered this long and it was rejected almost instantly at hod-dt

[boru 10]

Nice journal, good work, feel like I'm reading DbPhoenix, look forward to reading more Thanks

[DbPhoenix 42]

You may also want to follow the posts I make to the Ghost thread at ET. I rarely duplicate them. I don't have the time. But you're all focusing pretty much on the same stuff.

[SIUYA 11]

Hi Db

Whats 04?

What do you mean by "the levels where traders can't find trades"?

regards

bobc

 

dont hold me to this Bob as its my rough interpretation -

04 (3504) is the overnight mean of trades....or basically the overnight fudged mean which is the difference between the high and the low of the overnight sessions.

 

The 'levels where traders cant find trades' - is about the levels whereby the traders push prices away from this mean, and then revert back to it as those levels could not generate trades, above or below them. These levels will expand, and contract - and as a result the mean moves.

 

Best read all DBPs info your self to really get a handle on it that makes sense to you.

[Bern 10]

Market will open at upper extreme of the downtrend channel that started after the highs on early March.

 

Tight trading range with almost no activity during overnight (main european markets are closed today)

 

Charts are D, 60m and 15m.

[Bern 10]

1 After breaking the lower boundary of the overnight trading range, going back inside the range and not been able to even test the upper boundary and breaking the tr again to the downside, I entered a short at micro pullback that failed inmediately. I maybe gave it too much room but wanted to be sure that the breakout of the range was definitely failing.

 

NQ broke above the tr and wen to test Fri H. When it missed to test it and came back more than 50% of the upswing and back inside the ov range, I suspected this could develop into a tr or hinge.

 

2. Given the above suspicion, I think it was an error to take trade no. 2 short. When it rejected the low of the ov tr, it was clear that it was not going easily down. At this point it looked as the typical hinge fake breakout followed by a move back to the apex and a breakout that was to develope in the opposite direction. I hesitated to enter long at the breakout of the mini springboard circled in yellow, but since it was at a news release, I passed.

 

3. After the data release, I entered a long that I had some doubts since it was into a potential double top at the hod and into Fridays highs. When it finally could not hold Fri highs and it rejected back inside the day´s range, it looked like a mean reversion was in place back to the tr between 30-35.

 

4. Short at the pullback after breaking the dl, failing to hold highs and expecting NQ to go at least till down the mid of tr at about 32. I maybe should had partialed at least at 29, the bottom of the ov tr again. Being stopped at 5 was sour, specially since I did not reenter again short since I was not seeing it clear.

 

NQ went then till the mid-apex of Fri tr-hinge shown in the 15m preparation chart that I posted before.

 

Called it a day since not really focused.

 

I see market went back inside the range and then followed to test upper side of today´s range.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Be cautious about seeing hinges where they may not exist. An alternate view of what happened here was that the SL was broken around 0956. This prompts looking for a long entry, which was where you have your yellow circle. The fact that price got there after DBing at the lower limit of the ON TR encourages the long entry. And even if you incorporated the supposed hinge into your tactics, the fact that a move out of it to the downside failed also encourages taking a long out the opposite side.

[Bern 10]

Thanks, it makes perfect sense.

 

And now I see that my read of that as a hinge was wrong, or at most dubious, since it was not really "filled with price".

[Niko 10]

Thanks, it makes perfect sense.

 

And now I see that my read of that as a hinge was wrong, or at most dubious, since it was not really "filled with price".

 

I actually saw a hinge, but as Db said, sellers tried the downside and failed, that also happened just before the a break of a SL and an HL therefore an entry was triggered around 10:00 on the first RET after the line break.

[Bern 10]

Yes. As I mentioned in my earlier post, I hesitated and did not take the entry circled in yellow in my charts because it was around the CB Leading Index news release.

 

But as Db pointed out, it is not to be read as a hinge and I did not realize that it was not "filled by price".

 

Thanks.

[Bern 10]

Will it go down back inside the downtrend channel or continue up and maybe show a clear break to the upside?

 

Important news release at 0900 CT.

 

Charts are D, 60m and 10m.

[Bern 10]

I just opened a 240m chart, and the break above the downtrend channel looks clear, or clearer, compared to the previously posted daily chart...

 

Anyway, market will show its hand.

 

****

 

p.s.: although maybe the channel is not well drawn in the first 240m chart and the second drawing is a more appropriate version. I think I prefer the second one.

What do you think?

Edited April 22, 2014 by Bern

[Bern 10]

140422 post

 

The first long trade (1) was stopped and I took a short (2) after the dl was broken and market made a ret. It did not give much and my next trade was a long (3). I did not give it too much room and when it came back failing to break the high of the day I basically scratched it.

 

The news release was close and I waited seeing how marked consolidated there at highs for some minutes. Just after the news release there was a downside move from the consolidation that was inmediately rejected back to the upside. I think there is a case for entering a long at the yellow circle (4) and even above at the mini ret formed after the highs were broken (better seen in the 20s chart).

 

My next trade was a long (5) after the higher db with lolr clearly up. I hesitated to enter before, at the yellow circle 2 before the db was formed, but I do not like these kind of ret with no so much distance to a previous hod that often get rejected when they form a dt. Anyway, the long did not prosper and I scratched after unsuccesfully waiting to see if buyers were willing to continue up (I have to recognize that I have an upward bias at this point since I was not seeing any resistance till 3600).

 

At that point I felt that this was a tr and I was going to wait till 71 or 77 was broken...but I took a long (6) at the high boundary of the tr and I think this was a mistake since the tr had not clearly broken.

 

Maybe there was a case for buying the reversal of the tr at the next yellow circle (7) or even buying the next ret at the mean of the tr marked by the magenta circle, but I did nothing and called it a day. Any thoughts about these?

[Subs 10]

First and foremost thanks for all the resources you have made available on SLA and AMT.

 

I was hoping you could either reupload the pictures or post this analysis from ET on TL? Elite Trader - View Single Post - Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

 

I am reading the 'Ghost of if you can draw a straight line' thread as its the only SLA thread with the pictures not expired.

 

I also seem to draw a lot of lines which can really clog up the chart. How would you go about determining the most important Supply/Demand lines?

 

The ET threads will be there as long as ET is. No need to copy and repost here. In any case, the SLA-AMT pdf is standalone.

 

If you're interested in this approach, I suggest you open a journal so that all that you do is in one place. As to the Supply/Demand lines, you need only two, one to track supply and one to track demand.

Edited April 26, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

Any thoughts about these?

 

How would you have traded it using the SLA?

[DbPhoenix 42]

First and foremost thanks for all the resources you have made available on SLA and AMT.

 

I was hoping you could either reupload the pictures or post this analysis from ET on TL? Elite Trader - View Single Post - Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

 

I am reading the 'Ghost of if you can draw a straight line' thread as its the only SLA thread with the pictures not expired.

 

I also seem to draw a lot of lines which can really clog up the chart. How would you go about determining the most important Supply/Demand lines?

 

The ET threads will be there as long as ET is. No need to copy and repost here. In any case, the SLA-AMT pdf is standalone.

 

If you're interested in this approach, I suggest you open a journal so that all that you do is in one place. As to the Supply/Demand lines, you need only two, one to track supply and one to track demand.

[Subs 10]

The ET threads will be there as long as ET is. No need to copy and repost here. In any case, the SLA-AMT pdf is standalone.

 

If you're interested in this approach, I suggest you open a journal so that all that you do is in one place. As to the Supply/Demand lines, you need only two, one to track supply and one to track demand.

 

What I meant were the graphics you posted to go along with the explanations in the ET thread are no longer there except in the thread I noted. I will definitely look to open a journal very soon.

 

I no longer have any of that. But there are only so many ways to illustrate the same thing, and there are plenty of examples.

 

By the way these are my Supply/Demand Lines I posted throughout the trading day not in hindsight.

Edited April 25, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[Bern 10]

How would you have traded it using the SLA?

 

Once it was clear, as it was, that price was in a trading range and once it was seen, as it was, that there was a rejection of the lower boundary of the trading range, a long could had been entered at the yellow circle (7), specially since the perceived LOLR was to the upside.

 

Alternatively, if this entry was not taken, one could take the next trade: the retracement after the break of the sl, marked by a magenta circle (7), positioning for the upside breakout of the trading range or at least for a movement till the upper boundary of the trading range.

 

Thanks.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today's trades via the SLA.

 

The first is the pre-market.

 

The second shows a long, a short, and a second long. This is stopped out shortly before 1000. However, there is no retracement for a short, so the long can be re-entered after the failure of traders to find trades below 1368. This long holds until around 1140.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today's trades via the SLA.

 

The first is the pre-market.

 

The second shows a long, a short, and a second long. This is stopped out shortly before 1000. However, there is no retracement for a short, so the long can be re-entered after the failure of traders to find trades below 1368. This long holds until around 1140.

[DbPhoenix 42]

And for tomorrow:

.............................................

[DbPhoenix 42]

And for tomorrow:

.............................................

[Niko 10]

Today's trades via the SLA.

 

The first is the pre-market.

 

The second shows a long, a short, and a second long. This is stopped out shortly before 1000. However, there is no retracement for a short, so the long can be re-entered after the failure of traders to find trades below 1368. This long holds until around 1140.

 

Thanks, so according to the TC DL from premarket the REV at 68 was mean reversion?

 

It would seem so, tho it broke out of all that at 0950.

Edited April 25, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

Thanks, so according to the TC DL from premarket the REV at 68 was mean reversion?

 

It would seem so, tho it broke out of all that at 0950.

[DbPhoenix 42]

What I meant were the graphics you posted to go along with the explanations in the ET thread are no longer there except in the thread I noted.

 

I no longer have any of that. But there are only so many ways to illustrate the same thing, and there are plenty of examples.