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[Fluke 10]

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4HR

2500Tick

 

At some point I will discuss line colors/thickness/plot style.

 

EDIT: It appears these charts are miniature when clicked on. I am not sure what the issue is, but will update when I have time.

 

EDIT 2: It appears a small chart opens in a new tab, but a large chart opens in a new window. Am I uploading correctly?

Edited April 14, 2014 by Fluke

[fxpaulm 10]

It is my intent to trade SLA based on the four chart. That being the case, some charts with SL/DL.

[fxpaulm 10]

Here is the Usd/Cad and the Usd/Chf, The Usd/Cad just broke the DL, so wait to see if that holds then short the ret.

[Fluke 10]

Today was not an excellent start on my part. I was biased long from the open, and that opinion caused me to be very late on the short. And when I finally went short, my first stop limit was not filled, so I had to filler lower on the next RET.

 

Further, I had some issues with my order entry platform - trade management moves on my DOM were causing the trade to just exit. After trying to log off and log back on, I was unable to connect.

 

I will update with a chart of my early entries when I can get back logged into my brokerage. It appears I am missing an excellent run.

 

EDIT: Logged back in now. The first two trades were taken from the 15 second chart. The second trade was exited in two locations. The third trade was where I had an error trying to move in my stop from its initial disaster location. It just exited the trade. It happened to be beneficial to my trade at this time, but didn't want to continue without figuring out the error, which seemed to be more of a problem than I initially believed given I couldn't log back in until now.

Edited April 14, 2014 by Fluke

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

EDIT: It appears these charts are miniature when clicked on. I am not sure what the issue is, but will update when I have time.

 

EDIT 2: It appears a small chart opens in a new tab, but a large chart opens in a new window. Am I uploading correctly?

 

How are you uploading them?

[Fluke 10]

How are you uploading them?

 

I am using the management attachments button (the paperclip) at the top of this window I'm in now, the reply window. I browsed for it on my computer, uploaded it, and then back in the reply window, clicked on the paperclip again which produced a drop down menu of the uploads I made. I then clicked on one of them.

 

Is there a different way of putting images in other than that process?

[DbPhoenix 42]

I am using the management attachments button (the paperclip) at the top of this window I'm in now, the reply window. I browsed for it on my computer, uploaded it, and then back in the reply window, clicked on the paperclip again which produced a drop down menu of the uploads I made. I then clicked on one of them.

 

Is there a different way of putting images in other than that process?

 

I've never used that. Scroll down to "Attach Files" and click "Manage Attachments". Then click "Choose File" (I assume from your computer) and "Upload".

[Fluke 10]

I've never used that. Scroll down to "Attach Files" and click "Manage Attachments". Then click "Choose File" (I assume from your computer) and "Upload".

 

Got it - I don't need to insert them into the body of the text, they will just show up automatically at the end of the post. Thanks -

[fxpaulm 10]

While waiting patiently on the Gbp/Usd and Usd/Cad to retrace, I thought I would post my current trade that is live. It is in the Chf/Jpy and I'm short on the break of the DL and the retrace. The short was taken at 115.60 and I have a stop loss order in at 116.25, this order is only used for emergency exit, say i lose connection and am unable to manage trade.

[fxpaulm 10]

The Gbp/Usd broke SL and I have buy order in at 1.6739 and the Usd/Cad broke the DL so the short order is placed at 1.0949. I'm still in the Chf/Jpy. Here are the two charts for the pending orders.

[DbPhoenix 42]

This chart is an extension of the above, beginning just a few minutes before the open, switching to the 1m for the trading session. For those of you who are taking this out for a test drive, if you are trying to catch every twist and turn, you should compare your results with what you might achieve if you were to give price its head and just flow with the major shifts between demand and supply. While on the face of it you may be "giving up" points by not keeping your DLs and SLs skin-tight, you won't be getting chopped up and frustrated, either.

 

Since you're experimenting anyway, it's worth at least a try.

 

I should also point out, in case it's not obvious, that setting "targets" and determining "support and resistance" ahead of the session is a waste of time. Price will tell you when it's ready to turn. Judge the market by its own action.

Edited April 26, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

This chart is an extension of the above, beginning just a few minutes before the open, switching to the 1m for the trading session. For those of you who are taking this out for a test drive, if you are trying to catch every twist and turn, you should compare your results with what you might achieve if you were to give price its head and just flow with the major shifts between demand and supply. While on the face of it you may be "giving up" points by not keeping your DLs and SLs skin-tight, you won't be getting chopped up and frustrated, either.

 

Since you're experimenting anyway, it's worth at least a try.

 

I should also point out, in case it's not obvious, that setting "targets" and determining "support and resistance" ahead of the session is a waste of time. Price will tell you when it's ready to turn. Judge the market by its own action.

[Fluke 10]

What I'm looking at -

[Fluke 10]

Or if you prefer....

[DbPhoenix 42]

The levels beyond which traders couldn't find trades . . .

[Niko 10]

This chart is an extension of the above, beginning just a few minutes before the open, switching to the 1m for the trading session. For those of you who are taking this out for a test drive, if you are trying to catch every twist and turn, you should compare your results with what you might achieve if you were to give price its head and just flow with the major shifts between demand and supply. While on the face of it you may be "giving up" points by not keeping your DLs and SLs skin-tight, you won't be getting chopped up and frustrated, either.

 

Since you're experimenting anyway, it's worth at least a try.

 

I should also point out, in case it's not obvious, that setting "targets" and determining "support and resistance" ahead of the session is a waste of time. Price will tell you when it's ready to turn. Judge the market by its own action.

 

Although I am currently in a campaign against spandex lines, days like today still take a toll in my trading, I was tempted to stop trading and just watch after being scratched out multiple times, I think I still need to work in how to deal with these kind of deep RETs environments. Thankfully the SLA got me out of trouble after the break of the second SL.

[Niko 10]

I think the closest thing I see of fear showing it's hand in price movement (from my current abilities to read price) are rejections of a particular price barrier and activity immediately following a parabolic move. Now, if this isn't a manifestation of fear, I guess I'm off the mark.

 

With those two circumstances, either buyers or sellers are in no-man's land. The current price level just isn't being agreed upon by the masses. Price is in an area where nobody wants to transact - and therefore fear shows up with a quick change of price direction. Let me unload so I don't get caught in a really bad spot.

 

Am I off base on how you'd hoped this discussion might begin?

 

Hey, I did not see this last week I will reply tomorrow. Thanks

[Niko 10]

Niko,

 

To discuss your question in regards to fear:

 

Here's the way I see yesterday's action (granted I was trading the ES, so keep that in mind). The market was digesting a strong down move from the prior sessions. Via SLA of the 60min chart, the bias had shifted (at least momentarily) to the bulls side [sL was broken and RET triggered after rejection of the mean of the daily chart upward trend channel). In fact, a hinge formed right at a prior swing point in the prior session's down move [which broke out to the upside].

 

So here's the start of the morning session. What do we know?

 

Anyone with half a brain probably thinks there will be follow through after that strong sell off. BUT! The bias is currently bullish. The chart tells me so. [hypothetically] I'm a fearful trader and refuse to follow SLA. Even though the market is moving up I'm staying out of the long trade because I'm worried the market will fall and screw me [it's a trap!]. After all, that's what always happens. So instead, I look for a place to get short. Unfortunately, there is no clearly defined, major resistance level until higher up near the initial breakdown, so for the entire session, I have to sit and wait for a sign from the market gods to enter a short. And guess what, because there is nothing obvious to make me enter a short, I never do. For the entire session.

 

Now think of me as a composite operator for the market. How would the market behave?

 

It would float up, arguably very one-sidedly, AGAINST the directional bias of the market on low activity / low volume. You should also expect little to no downward overlap throughout the upmove since I [the composite operator] am unimpressed by your price rise and refuse to begin shorting, no matter how high your bull wave thrusts. At the open, there was some decent resistance, and so the only opportunity to short presented itself there. After the violation of that resistance, it was clear sailing up to a better shorting opportunity.

 

That, to me, is the market's manifestation of fear in the form of timing - no one wants to be too early or too late. That market has already shown its hand with the strong selling spike, but now everyone that isn't already short is trying to jump in at the best possible price. Since the market opens well below any logical place for a good short, price just relentlessly rises.

 

 

Thanks as well, I wil reply tomorrow.

[fxpaulm 10]

The Pound and Cad trades were never triggered and both have broken SL. The drill is to wait for ret., then buy in the crest. The Swiss/Yen trade is still going. Attached are the relevant charts.

[Niko 10]

Where we are.

 

At what point can one say that the "overbought" ship has sailed?

 

Once we got back inside the longer term TC?

[Fluke 10]

Where we are currently:

[Fluke 10]

• Big hinge just prior to the open.
  
• Rejection at the top of the ON range. Tried a long. Failed.
  
• Tried short on the first RET out of the hinge. Failed.
  
• Swift move up and through the Hinge EP after failed exploration down. Long on pb to it.
  
• -Rejection at upper high of yesterday's range.
  
• -Large pb, still believe LOLR is up, holding.
  
• -Break to NH, moving stop.
  
• -Parabolic high vol (PHV), exit partial. Oh man, crrrrrrappy fill.
  
• -At Hourly RES. Initial reaction, but swift catch by buyers. And past it. [i realized late that this was the mean of the daily trend channel.]
  
• -DL tested for a second time, but nothing more than a poke the first time, and this time.
  
• -Onto a NH, DL fanned.
  
• -Again.
  
• -[Lot of air up here - ]
  
• -DL poke again, losing a bit of the up-steam.
  
• -Close below DL = Exit.
  
• SL traced.
  
• Have chosen to pass on the short due to the ferocity of the upmove and lack of capituation volume. [should have just taken the short][Had I just looked at my daily chart I would have realized where we had turned from and probably been more apt to take the earlier short. That probably would have been scratched and I would have had to re-enter where I entered in reality, so perhaps it worked out for the best.]
  
• LRL (last reaction low) breached.
  
• Bounce from ON range high, SL still intact.
  
• SL breach
  
• Swift response by sellers - short.
  
• -SL traced
  
• -NL -> SL tightened.
  
• -right at the hinge EP, finding some friction. Out patial [when I go out partial, the worst I will do on the remainder is BE.]
  
• -NL SL fanned.
  
• -getting close to testing back inside the ON range.
  
• -very widespread going into the opening low and back into the ON range.
  
• -testing the ON range MP, likely to at least test the other side.
  
• -and there it is.
  
• -going parabolic. And swift response by buyers. Exit - better fill than before.
  

And that about does it for me.

EDIT: To be clear, I didn't quit. I had other obligations this morning. Be that as it may, I could have left a single position to run as this has been a nice move down. I am uncomfortable doing so currently, although all that would really be at stake would be unrealized gains.

Edited April 15, 2014 by Fluke

[Niko 10]

Nice, seems like you have a good understanding of PA.

[Fluke 10]

Nice, seems like you have a good understanding of PA.

 

Thanks Niko. I feel that I do, but still can easily get in my own way if I'm not focusing :crap:

[Niko 10]

I think the closest thing I see of fear showing it's hand in price movement (from my current abilities to read price) are rejections of a particular price barrier and activity immediately following a parabolic move. Now, if this isn't a manifestation of fear, I guess I'm off the mark.

 

With those two circumstances, either buyers or sellers are in no-man's land. The current price level just isn't being agreed upon by the masses. Price is in an area where nobody wants to transact - and therefore fear shows up with a quick change of price direction. Let me unload so I don't get caught in a really bad spot.

 

Am I off base on how you'd hoped this discussion might begin?

 

So rejections are a manifestation of fear. Like "We are not finding anyone who wants this stuff lets get the hell out of here"

 

BTW, I dont really want the discussion to begin anywhere, just want to discuss how fear looks in the charts. For example today bulls reached 98 and stalled, they tried to push back again from 85 and failed, from there they just started losing hope and dumped their contracts all the way to 10.

 

There were some moments where bulls manned up and kept prices from falling further, but as soon as they realized there were no followers they started to exit again. Was that fear?