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[fxpaulm 10]

That was not something that I saw, I believe that the best entry came from the last green line break and then the slight retrace to 103.38. That would still lead to over a 100 pip profit.

 

I will have to look deeper to see what you saw with the LSH, but I agree that the SLA worked great, really should not be too surprised though.

[gears 10]

In the Apendix E PDF, Db talks about "The dynamics of fear"

 

"...dynamics of fear (fear of making the wrong decision, fear of losing money, fear of missing

out, fear of holding too long, fear of not holding long enough, fear of being tricked, fear of

being trapped, fear of being blind-sided, etc, etc, etc)..."

 

Regarding this, I would like to start a discussion about the way fear shows itself in the charts, as I realized there is not really much understanding (at least from my side) about how to read fear in RT.

 

I think the closest thing I see of fear showing it's hand in price movement (from my current abilities to read price) are rejections of a particular price barrier and activity immediately following a parabolic move. Now, if this isn't a manifestation of fear, I guess I'm off the mark.

 

With those two circumstances, either buyers or sellers are in no-man's land. The current price level just isn't being agreed upon by the masses. Price is in an area where nobody wants to transact - and therefore fear shows up with a quick change of price direction. Let me unload so I don't get caught in a really bad spot.

 

Am I off base on how you'd hoped this discussion might begin?

[Niko 10]

That was not something that I saw, I believe that the best entry came from the last green line break and then the slight retrace to 103.38. That would still lead to over a 100 pip profit.

 

I will have to look deeper to see what you saw with the LSH, but I agree that the SLA worked great, really should not be too surprised though.

 

You will have to define a RET. If a 2 tick poke means that is not a ret but a HH is gonna depend on your backtesting.

 

Best of lucks.

[Niko 10]

That was not something that I saw, I believe that the best entry came from the last green line break and then the slight retrace to 103.38. That would still lead to over a 100 pip profit.

 

I will have to look deeper to see what you saw with the LSH, but I agree that the SLA worked great, really should not be too surprised though.

 

You will have to define a RET. If a 2 tick poke means that is not a ret but a HH is gonna depend on your backtesting.

 

Best of lucks.

[fxpaulm 10]

Niko,

 

I see what you mean about the retrace, but only issue is that it hadn't broken a DL.

 

One thing that is on my radar is the Eur/Jpy, not sure which way it will go, but am leaning down. Will wait for a break and retrace.

[fxpaulm 10]

The Aud/Jpy is also worth to monitor and is close to breaking a DL. Interesting to see the consolidation and price trying to move out, but was selling pressure was to great. Now it tried again, but couldn't even approach recent high. Patience is key and waiting for clear break and retrace should yield some good pips.

[DbPhoenix 42]

The Aud/Jpy is also worth to monitor and is close to breaking a DL. Interesting to see the consolidation and price trying to move out, but was selling pressure was to great. Now it tried again, but couldn't even approach recent high. Patience is key and waiting for clear break and retrace should yield some good pips.

 

You will likely benefit from this more if you draw these lines in real time. You will then be able to determine where your entries and exits ought to be. Using hindsight lines as a guide gives a completely false impression of how this process works.

[fxpaulm 10]

Not sure I understand, those lines on the A/J are real time, As I type this price is struggling to stay above the dark green DL. The plan is to wait for a break, either up or down, but probably down and then short the trough of the ret.

 

Not sure if this helps, I cleaned up the chart and removed all of the old lines and just have the ones I think are part of the next trade. The light green channel is not important, but I forgot to remove it.

 

Hopefully I'm doing this in RT, if not could you tell me how I'm not???

[DbPhoenix 42]

Your last dk grn line might have been drawn in real time, but the rest were not due to the fact that the price points necessary to draw them did not exist at the time they were drawn.

 

Be that as it may, without a trading strategy to accompany this, they're just lines. If you intend to use the strategy detailed in the pdf, all these lines are drawn incorrectly, or at least they would have been drawn differently in real time.

[fxpaulm 10]

"price points necessary to draw them did not exist at the time they were drawn."

 

Not sure, but I only put the lines on once I was able to with either a HH/HL/LH/LL. The red SL was drwan the minute that I saw the LH and same for the dark green line just it was a HL. The congestion was evident back on the 3rd and those two lines have been there since.

 

How are the lines drawn incorrectly? Granted you had some lines in the pdf snug up to price, but some you based of swings which is what I'm trying to focus on.

 

As for strategy I thought I said that, once price breaks either the dark green or the red line I would trade in that direction after a ret. What am I missing?

[green.green 10]

I added some charts in post 9 that might interest you. I don't follow JPY so take them for what they are worth.

[DbPhoenix 42]

If you had drawn the lines in real time, those at the beginning of the chart would have looked like this:

[fxpaulm 10]

I figured that was what you were talking about, but I'm trying to make this as easy on me as a I can, so I stay away from drawing those lines that don't have a clear swing. Does that make sense? That was part of my question at the very beginning, what do you do with those moves that just shoot off into one direction.

 

My solution was to just stay away from them for the time being, till I really mastered the obvious ones. i know that this means I will miss trades, but I'm ok with that.

 

So I believe that I'm following the spirit of the pdf, even though, I may not be following the letter of the pdf.

 

Am I still way off base or in the ballpark somewhere?

[DbPhoenix 42]

I figured that was what you were talking about, but I'm trying to make this as easy on me as a I can, so I stay away from drawing those lines that don't have a clear swing. Does that make sense? That was part of my question at the very beginning, what do you do with those moves that just shoot off into one direction.

 

My solution was to just stay away from them for the time being, till I really mastered the obvious ones. i know that this means I will miss trades, but I'm ok with that.

 

So I believe that I'm following the spirit of the pdf, even though, I may not be following the letter of the pdf.

 

Am I still way off base or in the ballpark somewhere?

 

But you can't know in real time whether they are going to have a "clear swing" or not. The right edge of your chart, for example, should look like this:

[fxpaulm 10]

For example, while i see the lines you draw, I wait for the obvious to make it easy on me. So once I saw the LH I put in the red line and waited for the break, then the retrace. Are you saying that this is completely wrong and has no relation to the SLA?

[fxpaulm 10]

I see what your saying and I'm guilty of drawing the lines to fast, meaning I'm assuming that it is a LH without it yet being confirmed.

 

Maybe I'm still seeing that horizontal zone to be of importance. Price stayed there for awhile and when it tried to rise the selling pressure was too much. I'm still giving that some weight in my decision and that is why I put my top red line where I put it, even though it has not confirmed a LH yet with a LL. That is my baggage I suppose.

[DbPhoenix 42]

For example, while i see the lines you draw, I wait for the obvious to make it easy on me. So once I saw the LH I put in the red line and waited for the break, then the retrace. Are you saying that this is completely wrong and has no relation to the SLA?

 

By the time you've drawn your red line, you'd already be in a long.

 

You don't have to follow the SLA, of course. You can plan whatever strategy you like. But it wouldn't have anything to do with this thread. Plus you need to backtest, forwardtest, and at least simtrade whatever strategy you devise.

[fxpaulm 10]

What are you talking about, you could draw that red line the minute a LL was made on the 13th, or if you jump the gun even earlier, and then price did not break it till the 19th.

[green.green 10]

What are you talking about, you could draw that red line the minute a LL was made on the 13th, or if you jump the gun even earlier, and then price did not break it till the 19th.

 

He means if you follow SLA as proposed you would be in a long trade before the red line was broken. Db has tested SLA extensively but when you depart from the rules then without proper testing who knows? You see promise in the way you draw the lines which is great - but you need to test the way you are doing it in order to be certain you have an edge.

[DbPhoenix 42]

What are you talking about, you could draw that red line the minute a LL was made on the 13th, or if you jump the gun even earlier, and then price did not break it till the 19th.

 

Yes, but you've drawn it incorrectly. See the chart that I posted for that timespan.

[fxpaulm 10]

I saw the chart, and the long would already have been exited. Why could you not use the LH once it was confirmed? You even have something like it in the pdf where you are talking about channels.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I saw the chart, and the long would already have been exited. Why could you not use the LH once it was confirmed? You even have something like it in the pdf where you are talking about channels.

 

The long need not be exited until the demand line is broken unless you have some reason for exiting earlier. As for the red line you drew to your LH, it serves no purpose.

 

Perhaps you could explain how the SLA rules apply to the lines you've drawn.

[fxpaulm 10]

Green,

 

I see what you are saying, but if you look at the totality of the chart up to that point one could see that price was in nice channel, did not break low of beginning of March, broke a nice TL that everyone could see and putting that all together, it seems like the obvious thing.

[fxpaulm 10]

Sure, why not,

 

A is the long due to SL being broken, B is the DL being broken, 1 is high, 2 is LL which is confirmed at 3 so the TL from 1 - 2 seems to be valid, then you could add the lower channel line.

 

Couple that with the total picture of price not even approaching the lows of the beginning of March and demand seems to be in charge.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Sure, why not,

 

A is the long due to SL being broken, B is the DL being broken, 1 is high, 2 is LL which is confirmed at 3 so the TL from 1 - 2 seems to be valid, then you could add the lower channel line.

 

Couple that with the total picture of price not even approaching the lows of the beginning of March and demand seems to be in charge.

 

I was referring to the chart I posted later of your right edge: