Thread Banter Continuum

[cowpip 10]

I'm now just basically waiting for the current hourly candle to close above that steepest trend-line to go long. I'll consider a short if price closes below that bottom trend-line. But that means waiting another hour for the close. OR, I've seen wasp use the close of the 30-min candle to take entries if the 30-min closes above/below a TL. However, I've also seen entries taken on the 30-min become invalidated by the end of the hourly close. It's safest to wait for the hourly close.

[cowpip 10]

Just a word of caution. You shouldn't take the break of the TL. The hourly candle can spike up, then come right back down and close below the trendline. That's why you have to wait for the hourly to close to be safest.

 

EDIT: The BETTER trendline to break would be the shallower one, imo. If price breaks and closes above that, I'll long it. Reason being: It would also (hopefully) close above that S/R zone, which would help further protect stops.

[firewalker 10]

Great activity going on here... there's more activity here than in the Live indices thread right now. So I'm going to bug you guys a bit more

 

I was wondering how many trades you guys on average take per week?

[wasp 10]

Great activity going on here... there's more activity here than in the Live indices thread right now. So I'm going to bug you guys a bit more

 

I was wondering how many trades you guys on average take per week?

 

None of your business... bugger off to your own board! :rofl:

[firewalker 10]

None of your business... bugger off to your own board! :rofl:

 

Ey! You shouldn't be posting at all, remember? :deal:

[wasp 10]

Ey! You shouldn't be posting at all, remember? :deal:

 

No posting of live calls I said... I also said I will stick around to moan at cowpip when he f*cks up and to take the piss out of you so I am allowed!!! :haha:

[cowpip 10]

As the lows were rejected, I looked then for a long... There was a pullback to S providing the long signal and thus personally, I have entered long on that (per the triangle)

 

I was wondering about that. I was going to take that same trade, but of course, I didn't.

 

Wasp, do you have more than one set of S/R lines, for each time-frame (30-min, hourly, 240)?

[cowpip 10]

As far as I can tell, the market is essentially directionless. Yes, there was rejection at the days lows, but there has been very little constructive candle formation since.

[wasp 10]

I was wondering about that. I was going to take that same trade, but of course, I didn't.

 

Wasp, do you have more than one set of S/R lines, for each time-frame (30-min, hourly, 240)?

 

No, but I adapt them as price changes and S/R moves here and there so they are right as per the last time they were in that region. If you go back, you will see my S/R is perfect for the last time they were used, but go back a week and they would have been slightly different according to PA then... Basically, if price has made a new low say, 10 below my 240m level, once we have moved away from that level, I normally adjust it so next time it is correct per the last time we were at that price. Levels aren't static, they move with the times.

 

A bit like Prince. Or was that the sign of the times?

[cowpip 10]

Levels aren't static, they move with the times.

 

Argh! And all this time, I was assuming they were always pretty-much fixed in time, which helped (in my mind) explain why you have to go so far back in time to confirm a level. The levels back in time seem to coincide very nicely with current-day levels, which is why I thought they were essentially static. You set them once and they change very little.

 

But I agree - and I can see, that on the 240min charts, the reaction levels are a bit different (by tens of pips in some cases).

 

I wonder if I would have traded any differently had I known this. Hmmm... Back to the drawing board.

[wasp 10]

Argh! And all this time, I was assuming they were always pretty-much fixed in time, which helped (in my mind) explain why you have to go so far back in time to confirm a level. The levels back in time seem to coincide very nicely with current-day levels, which is why I thought they were essentially static. You set them once and they change very little.

 

But I agree - and I can see, that on the 240min charts, the reaction levels are a bit different (by tens of pips in some cases).

 

I wonder if I would have traded any differently had I known this. Hmmm... Back to the drawing board.

 

Sorry, BUT, I did tell you NOT to try and copy me for this reason among many... There are many things ingrained in my head that I don't even think of mentioning.

 

Yes, they are static from times ago but, everything will change slightly... Sometimes not at all, sometimes a few pips, sometimes they will become redundant and knowing which and how and why, is just something I learnt through experience, trial and error... no fixed rules for them I'm afraid.

[cowpip 10]

No need to be sorry. This is my problem, not yours. I'm not trying to copy you... just learn your methodology, which requires some emulation. I feel like I've almost got this down, although my P&L would beg to differ. But that's ok, I'm patient enough to work through this until all the pieces fit together.

 

Thanks for the info.

 

PS: See, this is why it's nice to have you around - I don't mind picking up all of your brain-leakage. It's valuable to me.

[wasp 10]

I don't mind picking up all of your brain-leakage. It's valuable to me.

 

That's good cos the missus was getting fed up with the mess on the shoulder of my t-shirt! :rofl:

[wasp 10]

Here is a thread to dump all the non-call chat on the live threads but without cluttering up the trade analysis thread. (where I normally put it!)

 

Its for Firewalker and I to move anything we see fit after close of business and then discussions can continue here, rather than on the trade analysis thread as it is not always just about singular trades.

[wasp 10]

Hmmmmmmmmmmm, I think this market has pretty much stopped now!

[cowpip 10]

Hmmmmmmmmmmm, I think this market has pretty much stopped now!

 

Yep... it's definitely ramping down toward a flat-line status. I guess almost all of the air in this balloon has been bled away.

 

T'is a pity that I wasn't able to better capitalize on more of the action.

[wasp 10]

One to print..........

[cowpip 10]

One to print..........

 

Thanks... that frames me perfectly this week.

[cowpip 10]

You had to say that, didn't you! :o

 

Price has now moved against me by better than 40 pips :frustrated:

 

Sorry dude. I haven't quite figured out the key here, but I think if you burp, then swallow, then fart, it will run in your direction.

[myrtleturtle 10]

excellent posts guys. wish I could understand your reasoning for them. i can guess some of the mechanisms.

however, i am interested in the long-bias that cowpip seems to have.

on 4-hr and 1-hr, i have short-bias. just cant see the long, except the support at 187.50 (easier to see on 4-hrs). and the res at 194-ish from march this year which was clearly rejected on sep-8th.

clearly i am not in same league as wasp, but there appears to be a down-channel, so would be biased towards looking for shorts.

 

all in hindsight, of course. (please forgive the RSI indicator!)

[wasp 10]

FYI

 

sometimes you get long signals that need to be reversed when it breaks back down but we are talking overall averages here, not perfection.... That costs!

[cowpip 10]

excellent posts guys. wish I could understand your reasoning for them. i can guess some of the mechanisms.

however, i am interested in the long-bias that cowpip seems to have.

on 4-hr and 1-hr, i have short-bias. just cant see the long, except the support at 187.50 (easier to see on 4-hrs). and the res at 194-ish from march this year which was clearly rejected on sep-8th.

clearly i am not in same league as wasp, but there appears to be a down-channel, so would be biased towards looking for shorts.

 

all in hindsight, of course. (please forgive the RSI indicator!)

 

myrtleturtle, yeah, hindsight is 20-20, for sure. I hate to blame things for losses, but I really and truly am thinking that I was just too blasted tired to be thinking straight the last few days. Having the laptop beside my bed has turned out to be a bad idea. But hey, you don't know until you try, right? I slept last night without the laptop and I'm thinking a whole lot clearer than I was. Huge difference.

 

Also, I wasn't seeing a channel at all. I saw a range and I was hoping to catch the bounce off the bottom of the range. Not to be so this time, so I took another loss last night on that last trade I annotated.

 

Fatigue can dull the edge. I should have known better.

 

So I will now only be taking trades during the US session - and maybe the early Asian session. I may also start focusing less on GJ and more on the dollar pairs, since GJ often is more noisy during the US session.

 

Yes, the profit targets are smaller, but with less noise, the risk is also lower.

[wasp 10]

myrtleturtle, yeah, hindsight is 20-20, for sure. I hate to blame things for losses, but I really and truly am thinking that I was just too blasted tired to be thinking straight the last few days. Having the laptop beside my bed has turned out to be a bad idea. But hey, you don't know until you try, right? I slept last night without the laptop and I'm thinking a whole lot clearer than I was. Huge difference.

 

Also, I wasn't seeing a channel at all. I saw a range and I was hoping to catch the bounce off the bottom of the range. Not to be so this time, so I took another loss last night on that last trade I annotated.

 

Fatigue can dull the edge. I should have known better.

 

So I will now only be taking trades during the US session - and maybe the early Asian session. I may also start focusing less on GJ and more on the dollar pairs, since GJ often is more noisy during the US session.

 

Yes, the profit targets are smaller, but with less noise, the risk is also lower.

 

GJ can be a nasty bugger at times and there are smoother easier pairs. Yes, the pip count is smaller but its what you make overall, and the ROI rather than thinking of the large numbers GJ provides.

 

Also, 24hr trading really is bad for your health!

[pipMonster 10]

Deleted duplicate.

[wasp 10]

It went to +30 for me... I had a feeling it wouldn't run lower, given the 180 pips it already had run for the day.

 

Sorry to hear about your loss. This is one heck of a choppy market. Doesn't look like it'll settle down anytime soon, given how jittery everyone is about Lehman. And hey, have you all heard? The U.S. govt is actively engaged in orchestrating another takeover of Lehman. Woo hoo! More liability on the U.S. taxpayer, perhaps? Now why would the dollar rally on such news? Ah well, nothing makes sense anymore. Not even price action is making much sense.

 

This is my earlier point on news/fundamentals. Just because at face value, you'd expect one thing, to those moving the markets, there could be so many underlying and knock on effects that we don't consider that its hell trying to trade off funnymentals alone.