Harmonics

[traden4x 10]

Nice. Do you follow other pairs as well?

 

I follow 4 or 5 all the time and try another 6 on the 4hr and above.

 

Is that a stock indicator for trade station?

 

Cheers

[suriNotes 11]

Hi Traden4x,

 

I am primarily Index Futures (short-term) and Equities trader (Swing). Just started Forex recently. This Harmonic Pattern indicator (still working on it ) I wrote for TS.

 

Regards,

Suri

[traden4x 10]

I've been working on research for several of the patterns and looking at other patterns. I've been looking at time and price completion trying to evaluate the standard accepted values to see if there are better ratios that are seen more often.

 

I hope to create a better indicator for identifying the patterns from all of this. I'm interested to hear your experiences.

 

Cheers,

Carl

[OAC 10]

Hi Traden4x,

 

This Harmonic Pattern indicator (still working on it ) I wrote for TS.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

Suri,

Tim Morge, the Median Line expert uses 10,000 volume bars for the S&P.

And our local expert, Steve46 uses 2400, 10,000 volume bars for his pattern recognitions.

Do you find any value in volume bars in your work with Harmonics ?

 

Thanks and Welcome Aboard

[OAC 10]

My second question is whether the overbalance and underbalance concept in regard to symmetry as practiced by Robert Miner, Bryce Gilmore, etc, can be applied to Fib specific Harmonic patterns ?

[traden4x 10]

OAC,

 

From some of what I have done already I have seen almost truer patterns with volume bars. However I can't find the time relationship as well. I'm not sure if I need to adjust something or not. I do know that every day in forex there are times of action and reaction just like clock work which means traders using time charts and not so much volume charts.

[traden4x 10]

My second question is whether the overbalance and underbalance concept in regard to symmetry as practiced by Robert Miner, Bryce Gilmore, etc, can be applied to Fib specific Harmonic patterns ?

 

I hope Suri can comment on this as I have not studied anything by Robert Miner or Bryce Gilmore.

 

Suri your thoughts and experience?

 

Carl

[brownsfan019 17]

You guys need to create a 'what are we talking about' thread so those of us that are completely baffled looking at your charts w/ lines everywhere can attempt to participate. Just an intro thread about 'harmonics' could be useful.

[suriNotes 11]

Hi Carl,

 

Thanks for your post.

 

I have been working with Harmonic Patterns about 8-10 years out of my 13+ years of trading. Pattern trading is my primary way of trading and in my view Harmonic Patterns are very efficient way and offer great risk/reward ratios to trade patterns with Time/Price confluence theories as you mentioned. My primary patterns are ABCs and X5 patterns (All 5-point patterns Gartley/Butterfly etc...)

 

These discussions could be very elaborate but few pioneers to mention are:

Gartley, Garrett Williams, Robert Miner, Scot Carney, Larry Pesavento, Bryce Gilmore etc.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

 

 

 

I've been working on research for several of the patterns and looking at other patterns. I've been looking at time and price completion trying to evaluate the standard accepted values to see if there are better ratios that are seen more often.

 

I hope to create a better indicator for identifying the patterns from all of this. I'm interested to hear your experiences.

 

Cheers,

Carl

[waveslider 10]

Just to chip in, here are some major factors which I have found with these patterns.

 

As OAC mentioned, there are overshoots and undershoots that dramatically affect the validity of these patterns. This is because of volatility in the market, or because of a larger picture trend shift going on. Multiple time frame analysis is extremely important.

 

It is critical that if you are aware of this potential and to be careful getting married to these "perfect storm" set-ups. The very very best set-ups I have seen, picture perfect, are routinely annihilated.

 

It is very important to have a solid discipline for entry and exit (almost mechanical) to accompany this type of trading. That way you are covered in case of overshoot, undershoot, and failure.

 

Good thread Carl, hope you are taking notes along the way.

[traden4x 10]

I have just come to be talking with Scott Carney in his trading room. I have seen several of my ideas confirmed by what he has done.

 

I have done a lot in the past with elliott waves and the harmonics seem to be a much larger part of them then most know. Since seeing this I have come to see and believe that the harmonic patterns are much more predictive then EW's. Or at least give tighter SL and TP levels.

 

I hope to be talking with you more.

 

Cheers,

Carl

[traden4x 10]

Just to chip in, here are some major factors which I have found with these patterns.

 

As OAC mentioned, there are overshoots and undershoots that dramatically affect the validity of these patterns. This is because of volatility in the market, or because of a larger picture trend shift going on. Multiple time frame analysis is extremely important.

 

It is critical that if you are aware of this potential and to be careful getting married to these "perfect storm" set-ups. The very very best set-ups I have seen, picture perfect, are routinely annihilated.

 

It is very important to have a solid discipline for entry and exit (almost mechanical) to accompany this type of trading. That way you are covered in case of overshoot, undershoot, and failure.

 

Good thread Carl, hope you are taking notes along the way.

 

Thanks waveslider,

 

Yes I have noticed the "perfect storm" setups and agree with what I think is meant by the over/under shoot that you and brownsfan are mentioning. I am taking all of this into my research and applying almost "fuzzy" logic to it. In the end I actually hope to do that.

 

The overlying fact however is how accurate these patterns are. Yes there are larger things to consider with other TF's and rules vary with the use of a pattern in a lower TF when say an opposite pattern exists in a higher TF. The next phase of my research will look at and include this into the mix.

 

Cheers

[suriNotes 11]

Hi OAC,

 

Thanks for your welcome!!

 

I trade Tick charts (eg: @ES 610T) and watch 5m and Daily Charts. But all my trading decisions are only made on 610T (SINGLE time-frame). And also I use similar range/box size RangeBars and Renko Charts in TS (use for confirmations of patterns etc.)

 

I have studied Volume and built Volume based Systems/theories in my past life but currently I do not use any volume concepts/theories for trading. Recent VSA theories looks interesting though...

 

Volume bars may have merit but I will stick to my Tick Bars (the Topic of my How to Select Chart-Time Frame Post...).

 

Given that, Patterns form/fail in all time-frames and in all market instruments. I do not know if any conventional (TICK, Volume or Time) bars have any advantage on other when detecting patterns. The theory may be different for Range/Renko/3PLB type of charts since each of the prices (O, H, L, C) are derived from actual traded O,H,L,C prices.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

 

 

 

 

Suri,

Tim Morge, the Median Line expert uses 10,000 volume bars for the S&P.

And our local expert, Steve46 uses 2400, 10,000 volume bars for his pattern recognitions.

Do you find any value in volume bars in your work with Harmonics ?

 

Thanks and Welcome Aboard

[suriNotes 11]

Hi OAC,

 

Thanks for your post.

 

I have never picked up the concept Over/Under balance from Bryce Gilmore or Robert Miner's books. Perhaps I'll now..

 

Thanks for your tip.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

 

 

 

My second question is whether the overbalance and underbalance concept in regard to symmetry as practiced by Robert Miner, Bryce Gilmore, etc, can be applied to Fib specific Harmonic patterns ?

[OAC 10]

Hi OAC,

 

I have never picked up the concept Over/Under balance from Bryce Gilmore or Robert Miner's books. Perhaps I'll now..

 

Thanks for your tip.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

I have a lot more tips if you promise to keep them off your next book.

[traden4x 10]

I have a lot more tips if you promise to keep them off your next book.

 

OAC,

 

Hey the suspense is killing!!!

 

So what are the tips?

 

Cheers,

Carl

[OAC 10]

OAC,

 

Hey the suspense is killing!!!

 

So what are the tips?

 

Cheers,

Carl

 

I gave you a link, "trade what you see", much earlier in this thread. There is some very good stuff in there. But you brushed it off as being too ordinary,

[traden4x 10]

I gave you a link, "trade what you see", much earlier in this thread. There is some very good stuff in there. But you brushed it off as being too ordinary,

 

Sorry there OAC, you made the comment about a "special sauce" if you will. I asked about it and you give this kind of response. FYI I did goto your link and looked around and guess what? 99.99% of it is typical price action. OK that is fine as that is what I trade.

 

Was my question to your baited post a reason to be snotty about it? I thought maybe this forum would be a better place to work and trade through. I guess that still remains to be seen.

 

Cheers,

Carl

[suriNotes 11]

Hi OAC,

 

Today I plotted X5 patterns using 10000 shares of @ES chart.

Here is the pic.. I'll watch next week or so and let you know if

they have an advantage.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

 

Suri,

Tim Morge, the Median Line expert uses 10,000 volume bars for the S&P.

And our local expert, Steve46 uses 2400, 10,000 volume bars for his pattern recognitions.

Do you find any value in volume bars in your work with Harmonics ?

 

Thanks and Welcome Aboard

[suriNotes 11]

Here is the same X5 pattern chart on 610 Tick of @ES.

The price-swing ratios are pretty identical (should be) but

the number of bars may be different.

 

In Tradestation's RadarScreen, I cannot compute my

BarInfo analysis (Num. of Bars, Avg. Bar Range) for

a Volume Chart (no options provided in RS).

 

I'll watch in real-time next few days

and see if 610T chart and 10000 shares

chart produce the same X5 patterns, then I may stay

with my 610T Chart.

 

Here is a similar box-range Renko chart showing

X5 pattern structures.

 

Regards,

Suri

[OAC 10]

Check out this post I made back in 1-21-2008: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/2/recession-exposure-3230-2.html

It is interesting looking back on it now.

I was trying to identify Harmonic pattern and price and time symmetry in the Dow. And I was probably the first person on this forum who mentioned the two unfamiliar words back then: "Derivative Meltdown". It is a little scary to have something that was somewhat theoretical to become a full-blown reality in a matter of a few month.

On the other hand, none of this matters as a trader/scalper that I am now. Every day, every hour and every second, I have or try to have no opinions. Zilch. Nada. I enjoy my soundful sleep every night and even take occasional naps during the day. :o