Chat Junkies

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

 

hey D,

 

refferring to 1st chart:

 

was it the second test (3rd red dot) from the down side that made it an important level ??

 

or could you also consider it important for use after the first downside test?

 

thanks, cheers marius (aka mong).

 

nice work!

 

This is why it's important to evaluate activity based on whether you're in and want to stay in, in and want to get out, out and want to get in, etc. I don't trade premkt, so to me it's all prologue, or overture. But if I were aggressive, or pathologically bored, and I had a talent for scalping, I'd note that price was hugging 55 and I'd short that. Then I'd note that price was testing 55 from the underside and I'd short that. Then I'd note the double bottom at 0840 and go long. And so forth. Eventually I'd figure out that 55 was important and begin to develop expectations.

 

And as a side note, there are more than two tests. For example, there are those little hesitations at 0945 and 0900 that say Look At Me! So how much confirmation you want in order to put your money at risk is at bottom a personal choice. And it's nobody else's business.

[DbPhoenix 42]

db, is this the right way to go about finding those important levels??

 

ta. mong.

 

It's a start. It at least may reflect what may be for you a different way of looking a price (as opposed to an indicator of some sort, for example). It's not just a matter of what price is doing and what the volume is and what sort of pattern one thinks price is forming but why traders are focusing on a certain level, or why they're speeding up or down through others. None of this just happens. People are making it happen. And it's helpful to think about why they're making it happen in just that way.

 

For example, does what you're looking at relate to a congestion from yesterday or the day before or last week? Does it relate to yesterday's high, or last week's low? How many buyers are standing there with their pants down when price comes back to where they entered? At what level do traders keep trying, and keep failing? This isn't just Follow The Bouncing Ball. It's people and their hope and their doubt and their anxiety. And that may seem like a tall order, which may be why so many people turn into quants.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Some of what I'm looking at for today.

 

 

I had thought we'd at least get to 1300, but we didn't. And even though the diagonal lines are "man-made", the line at 1250 is not, and the fact that we are below it again may perhaps be bad news. I haven't looked at the volume yet, but 1150 is always a possibility.

 

Edit: There appears to be a big volume gap for 1/2 and we may be doing no more than filling that gap down to 1220. I don't know why this should matter given all the previous activity between 1200 and 1250 during December, but there it is.

Edited January 8, 2009 by DbPhoenix

[Head2k 10]

© and what's at 1240 hmm...

 

This chart might interest you. 1240 was VWAP associated with the upmove from 1156. I know it is a manufactured level, but I believe it has some importance. Like boxes mark activity encapsulated in time, dynamic value areas describe activity since some point in past until present. Then this VWAP is the average price of all trades made since the origin of the upmove and thus it is a breakeven for the composite operator who entered during that move and is still in position. Something like a dynamic midpoint.

[firewalker 10]

This came right before the open, when price bounced hard off... you guess it, 45 NQ. 45 also gave a little resistance at 10:30 est. Fwiw, later, price bounced again off 45.

 

First price bounced off 1245 in premarket. Could be a nice long if one actually trades premarket. But then we failed to get through 56, the midpoint of a smaller box. Then we broke below 45, recovered, but again failed to breach that midpoint.

 

From what happened premarket so far today, 1245 seems to be more than just a coincidence.

 

[firewalker 10]

Edit: There appears to be a big volume gap for 1/2 and we may be doing no more than filling that gap down to 1220. I don't know why this should matter given all the previous activity between 1200 and 1250 during December, but there it is.

 

The 1220-1225 area would also make for a perfect 50% retracement of the upmove from the low 1160's, which started on the 29th of December.

 

That, and the action on the last day of 2008 has me on the lookout for action around that level.

[DbPhoenix 42]

1220-25 also represents the top of a pissant trading range, or value area, from the 31st. Therefore, we are now below the range we've been trading and above the next value area, narrow though it may be. If we can't get back thru 45, then we may just bounce back and forth between 25 and 45.

[DbPhoenix 42]

And here we are again:

 

[mong 10]

It's a start. It at least may reflect what may be for you a different way of looking a price (as opposed to an indicator of some sort, for example). It's not just a matter of what price is doing and what the volume is and what sort of pattern one thinks price is forming but why traders are focusing on a certain level, or why they're speeding up or down through others. None of this just happens. People are making it happen. And it's helpful to think about why they're making it happen in just that way.

 

For example, does what you're looking at relate to a congestion from yesterday or the day before or last week? Does it relate to yesterday's high, or last week's low? How many buyers are standing there with their pants down when price comes back to where they entered? At what level do traders keep trying, and keep failing? This isn't just Follow The Bouncing Ball. It's people and their hope and their doubt and their anxiety. And that may seem like a tall order, which may be why so many people turn into quants.

 

in and stay in, in and get out, out and get in,

 

man. you want to have focus of a brain surgeon to think all about all that over 3 hours, let alone 5mins. wtf!

 

thats a very tall order, more then most would care to admit i'm afriad! (i have trouble accepting that, but deep down i know thats probably a minimum to truly get the odds in your favor!) where does one start to break it down into simple steps which can be learned and habitulized ?!

 

thanks, marius.

:missy:

[HAKUNA 10]

mong,

You don't have to keep doing this whole day , if you got in the trade at the right support or resistance level, then you follow that trade via trendlines as Bearbull and Db have pointed out in their posts/blog respectively to determine your exits.

If you missed the trade at the start, then it also helps where to get in albeit with more risk or wait for a reversal once again at a relevant S/R level.

In other words reserve your energy for thinking at the appropriate at the price levels which matter than on every 5min bar.

[mong 10]

" if you got in the trade at the right support or resistance level,"

 

-in and want to stay in

 

-in and want to get out

 

-out and want to get in

 

 

well you want to know who's taking the otherside and therefore must be empathetic and place yourself in there shoes. this would suggest focusing even when its not about "your trade" otherwise you won't know where the hot spots are and in fact your energy/trade will most likely become it.

[HAKUNA 10]

Make an effort to study Db's blog and the thread Trading the wyckoff way and others in the wyckoff forum my friend

 

WHO SAID TRADING WAS EASY:)

[DbPhoenix 42]

in and stay in, in and get out, out and get in,

 

man. you want to have focus of a brain surgeon to think all about all that over 3 hours, let alone 5mins. wtf!

 

thats a very tall order, more then most would care to admit i'm afriad! (i have trouble accepting that, but deep down i know thats probably a minimum to truly get the odds in your favor!) where does one start to break it down into simple steps which can be learned and habitulized ?!

 

thanks, marius.

:missy:

 

It's all done ahead of time, if you're trading support and resistance (see the chart I just posted, and the charts illustraing tick divergence prior to that). Today, for example, I'm interested in 45 and 55. Anything else doesn't register. If you'd rather use a stochastic hook or an MA cross or whatever, that's up to you, but if you have no setup and you're going with little more than "feeling", you're putting the cart before the horse. Way before.

 

Judging by the comments you receive in the room, perhaps you're so empathetic to the other side of the trade that you end up taking that instead of focusing on your own strategy. Or maybe not. I'm not familiar enough with your strategy to make more than a superficial observation. But managing a trade once in is vastly easier than trying to decide where to enter a trade, much less trying to decide whether or not one should be entering a trade at all.

[mong 10]

Make an effort to study Db's blog and the thread Trading the wyckoff way and others in the wyckoff forum my friend

 

WHO SAID TRADING WAS EASY:)

 

thank you very much HAKUNA. i appreciate your kind words and feed back.

 

cheers, your friend mong.

[DbPhoenix 42]

On a separate subject, the question was asked yesterday about trends on time charts v CVB charts. Here are one of each covering the same timeframe. As you can see, there are differences, but to me they are slight and not important enough to bother with. But that doesn't mean whatever differences there may be may not be important to somebody else.

 

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

I also mentioned once upon a time that I followed the construction index prior to the top in the market to provide a little confirmation. I still check it now and then. As of now, it's not exactly screaming "strength". Whether or not it will help to indicate a change in the market, I have no idea. But it's no trouble to follow. And who knows?

 

 

 

Note that the index topped two frigging years before the market did.

 

And in case anybody's interested, here's where we got the house ready for sale:

 

Edited January 9, 2009 by DbPhoenix

[mong 10]

It's all done ahead of time, if you're trading support and resistance (see the chart I just posted, and the charts illustraing tick divergence prior to that). Today, for example, I'm interested in 45 and 55. Anything else doesn't register. If you'd rather use a stochastic hook or an MA cross or whatever, that's up to you, but if you have no setup and you're going with little more than "feeling", you're putting the cart before the horse. Way before.

 

Judging by the comments you receive in the room, perhaps you're so empathetic to the other side of the trade that you end up taking that instead of focusing on your own strategy. Or maybe not. I'm not familiar enough with your strategy to make more than a superficial observation. But managing a trade once in is vastly easier than trying to decide where to enter a trade, much less trying to decide whether or not one should be entering a trade at all.

 

 

yea. i'm assuming the comments about trades i enter. no (empathetic) . i don't focus down to that detail (which my original question sort of was about , np.).

 

the trades i been sharing lately is more about an excercise in ego control and getting to know myself. by sharing it puts it out there. i lose face when i'm wrong and feel giddy when i'm right. of course the goal is to be right more then wrong as when being wrong often will attract comments from other ppl who aren't comfortable with what you are doing (why-i have no f'ing idea). i have found that good traders who are confident in there ability will rarely raise an eyebrow about this! (either you can trade - pro, or you can't - noob) there really isn't any middle ground unless you consider years experience as some kind of morphed middle ground. ie. (your either make money month in month out OR you don't)

 

so that makes me a noob with a few years experience . at the end of the month i don't have more points then at the beginning (i know its rocket science...) so a. i'm paper trading and b. my strategy is always changing.

 

as you know, strategys from unsuccessfull traders are always changing. they are constently experimenting with new ideas/things read/ information/ etc.. always searching aways putting in "effort", always being inconsistent trying to be consistent! its a paradox - much like trading, s/r, pa, dvg etc...

 

my goal is to settle things down to where my strategy does not change and i'm winning more then i'm losing, that imo will "fit" my personality and maybe many other ppl too, but that is there business.

 

my original comment to you was me fishing for "simplicity" for what you dubbed is "a tall order" i've heard you promote it in the room and thought maybe you could share some of these "simple" ideas' you have developed.!

 

cheers and thanks for your comments, marius.

 

GTA.

 

hanuka - wtf is that. i've never seen him in the room. but ok we are good friend apparently. :crap:

 

like i said - i'm a nOOb. so you'll have to forgive me!! heheheh

[mong 10]

I also mentioned once upon a time that I followed the construction index prior to the top in the market to provide a little confirmation. I still check it now and then. As of now, it's not exactly screaming "strength". Whether or not it will help to indicate a change in the market, I have no idea. But it's no trouble to follow. And who knows?

 

 

 

Note that the index topped two frigging years before the market did.

 

And in case anybody's interested, here's where we got the house ready for sale:

 

 

BEAUTIFUL!!! lol

[DbPhoenix 42]

yea. i'm assuming the comments about trades i enter. no (empathetic) . i don't focus down to that detail (which my original question sort of was about , np.).

 

the trades i been sharing lately is more about an excercise in ego control and getting to know myself. by sharing it puts it out there. i lose face when i'm wrong and feel giddy when i'm right. of course the goal is to be right more then wrong as when being wrong often will attract comments from other ppl who aren't comfortable with what you are doing (why-i have no f'ing idea). i have found that good traders who are confident in there ability will rarely raise an eyebrow about this! (either you can trade - pro, or you can't - noob) there really isn't any middle ground unless you consider years experience as some kind of morphed middle ground. ie. (your either make money month in month out OR you don't)

 

so that makes me a noob with a few years experience . at the end of the month i don't have more points then at the beginning (i know its rocket science...) so a. i'm paper trading and b. my strategy is always changing.

 

as you know, strategys from unsuccessfull traders are always changing. they are constently experimenting with new ideas/things read/ information/ etc.. always searching aways putting in "effort", always being inconsistent trying to be consistent! its a paradox - much like trading, s/r, pa, dvg etc...

 

my goal is to settle things down to where my strategy does not change and i'm winning more then i'm losing, that imo will "fit" my personality and maybe many other ppl too, but that is there business.

 

my original comment to you was me fishing for "simplicity" for what you dubbed is "a tall order" i've heard you promote it in the room and thought maybe you could share some of these "simple" ideas' you have developed.!

 

cheers and thanks for your comments, marius.

 

GTA.

 

hanuka - wtf is that. i've never seen him in the room. but ok we are good friend apparently. :crap:

 

like i said - i'm a nOOb. so you'll have to forgive me!! heheheh

 

First, it's possible that those who comment do so because you appear to be unhappy with your results (I haven't been paying close attention, so I really can't say for sure). Or, otherwise, they see your losses and don't understand what you're doing and are trying to be helpful, even if they haven't been asked (this is an affliction among some people).

 

Second, as for the simplicity, it comes from the preparation. That's the difference between Daisy Desire at the local community theatre and Meryl Streep. Even those who claim to be able to do no more than turn on their computers and trade whatever the day offers to them aren't being completely honest, unless they're (a) completely clueless and (b) generally incompetent. Put in enough screentime and eventually you learn how to pick your spots. Some people call everything outside this "noise". This is inaccurate. It's more like going to the carnival with the intention of riding the roller coaster and not being distracted by the midway. If you know what you want, wait for it. If you don't know what you want, then slow down. If you know what you want but can't wait for it, then talk to somebody.

[mong 10]

First, it's possible that those who comment do so because you appear to be unhappy with your results (I haven't been paying close attention, so I really can't say for sure). Or, otherwise, they see your losses and don't understand what you're doing and are trying to be helpful, even if they haven't been asked (this is an affliction among some people).

 

Second, as for the simplicity, it comes from the preparation. That's the difference between Daisy Desire at the local community theatre and Meryl Streep. Even those who claim to be able to do no more than turn on their computers and trade whatever the day offers to them aren't being completely honest, unless they're (a) completely clueless and (b) generally incompetent. Put in enough screentime and eventually you learn how to pick your spots. Some people call everything outside this "noise". This is inaccurate. It's more like going to the carnival with the intention of riding the roller coaster and not being distracted by the midway. If you know what you want, wait for it. If you don't know what you want, then slow down. If you know what you want but can't wait for it, then talk to somebody.

 

yeah i agree with that. wiat for it, slow down or talk to somebody. i don't know what i want (and am working diligently to find out) so slow down.... hmmm. maybe i should only paper trade, which is what i am currently doing.

 

sure i'm one of those who get pissed when ppl try to help, but only b/c there comments come in hindsight after you get stopped out. if they felt so passionate and confident in there own analysis they would say as soon as someone called a trade contary their own opinions. this imo makes them cowards who want to see the wheather before they annouce the forcast. but that is another topic altogehter.

 

 

simple hey :rofl: nice i like it.

[Head2k 10]

sure i'm one of those who get pissed when ppl try to help, but only b/c there comments come in hindsight after you get stopped out. if they felt so passionate and confident in there own analysis they would say as soon as someone called a trade contary their own opinions. this imo makes them cowards who want to see the wheather before they annouce the forcast. but that is another topic altogehter.

I would say the real reason why you get pissed is that you are too proud. That goes hand in hand with wanting to be right. Anyway, I wonder why you attend the chat room then, apart from posting cute animals. Just a rhetorical question, I don't need an answer, since after all it is not my business. But perhaps you could answer that question for yourself.

[DbPhoenix 42]

yeah i agree with that. wiat for it, slow down or talk to somebody. i don't know what i want (and am working diligently to find out) so slow down.... hmmm. maybe i should only paper trade, which is what i am currently doing.

 

sure i'm one of those who get pissed when ppl try to help, but only b/c there comments come in hindsight after you get stopped out. if they felt so passionate and confident in there own analysis they would say as soon as someone called a trade contary their own opinions. this imo makes them cowards who want to see the wheather before they annouce the forcast. but that is another topic altogehter.

 

 

simple hey :rofl: nice i like it.

 

Depends on what you want from a chat room. I, for one, couldn't care less about other people's trades or about whether they win or lose. I'm interested instead on what they see in the chart. I don't call out every single trade I make. In fact, I rarely call any of them. I'm rather focused on what price is doing and where and what possbilities there may be. If somebody takes a trade and explains why, I may pay closer attention, but if no explanations are provided either in advance or at the time, their post doesn't even register with me.

 

Perhaps you should consider not posting your trades for a while but limiting your posts to what you see in the landscape and to your reactions to what others see. The emphasis then shifts from being right or wrong to understanding what's happening in front of you. And if there's anyone who distracts you by calling out trade after trade without ever offering any explanation of the why, you can always put him or her on ignore for a while. Or all day, for that matter.

[DbPhoenix 42]

As I said, just a memory aid:

 

[mong 10]

all valid points. thanks head. given me something solid to think about.

 

thanks db for the picture, todays late day sell off follows it to a T imo. so starting to see that thats where i should focus more of my attention.

 

so i will take your advice and next week will concentrate on more productive endevours.

 

excuse me fire , jason, and hunuka?? (whoever you are!! lol) if i came on alittle too strong or emotional.

 

i'm testing the waters with different things/ways. sometimes productivly and other times less. as we do or as at least i do and the only way i know how to do. it may or not be upto speed or "normal" but i am trying and not giving up and with that i am happy.

 

cheers, mong :doh: .

GTA.

[atto 20]

firewalker, here's my entry from yesterday, shown on a 10m for a little context, and a 10s. Since the resistance was established much earlier, a fast interval chart didn't give a huge advantage, besides the extra test right after open.