Chat Junkies

[mong 10]

Another chart of interest:

 

 

i'm not sure how you want to trade that. frankly i think its a joke. i expect support on the extended detached tl at around 600. i'm also liking the rounding occurring at the swing pivots, symettrical and good looking.

see attachement:

[DbPhoenix 42]

I have way too much time on my hands.....

 

[atto 20]

... wait, so it's a joke? All I can see from that is a possible double top, with extending trendlines up.

 

Edited December 17, 2008 by atto

[DbPhoenix 42]

... wait, so it's a joke?

 

No, atto, it's not a joke. This is serious stuff.

 

[ochie 10]

Had to get one in before it dies

 

[cowseathay 10]

Db, I would like to nominate your post for Post of the Year.

Edited December 17, 2008 by cowseathay

[DbPhoenix 42]

Db, I would like to nominate your post for Post of the Year.

 

It was a group effort

[DbPhoenix 42]

Here are updates to the charts I posted last week. Perhaps what I was saying about demand and supply lines will be clearer.

 

 

[HAKUNA 10]

correct me if I am wrong:

 

1. The job of trendlines is to point to the trend, upwards or downwards

 

2. Support is where prices was supported before, vice versa for Resistance. Both are horizontal and not necessarily lines but zones where prices can be expected to be supported or resisted.

 

3. SUPPLY and DEMAND are drawn through swing points and when sloping can act as TRENDLINES and then also as SUPPORT/RESISTANCE when they are horizontal.

 

Happy holidays

[DbPhoenix 42]

correct me if I am wrong:

 

1. The job of trendlines is to point to the trend, upwards or downwards

 

2. Support is where prices was supported before, vice versa for Resistance. Both are horizontal and not necessarily lines but zones where prices can be expected to be supported or resisted.

 

3. SUPPLY and DEMAND are drawn through swing points and when sloping can act as TRENDLINES and then also as SUPPORT/RESISTANCE when they are horizontal.

 

Happy holidays

 

Correct re 1 and 2. As for 3, supply lines and demand lines are drawn over supply and under demand to show where selling and buying interest are coming into the market. If there's a trend, eventually they will show it, but that's not their primary job.

 

Here, for example, in a blow-up of the charts I posted earlier, you can see that a number of supply and demand lines can be drawn within a trend, whether it forms a channel or not.

 

 

What may be the chief value of these lines, though, is to show the trader changes in momentum, and to provide an early warning that there might be trouble:

 

 

The supply lines to the far right do not show trend but rather changes in the trend.

[HAKUNA 10]

Many thanks Db for that clarity, greatly appreciated. Also your take on Volume on another thread dealing with questions on Wyckoff and in response to Susana, is certainly an eye-opener, also reveals many of the misconceptions held in the VSA world. Now I understand why I was struggling with it before. Reading up on Wyckoff has certainly shed more light as well.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today turned out to be an excellent one on both the long and short side, at least on the NQ, but all anyone could talk about was how boring and slow it was. Which makes me wonder (again) why people love the ES so much.....

[atto 20]

Today turned out to be an excellent one on both the long and short side, at least on the NQ, but all anyone could talk about was how boring and slow it was. Which makes me wonder (again) why people love the ES so much.....

Old ladies... old ladies.

[firewalker 10]

Today turned out to be an excellent one on both the long and short side, at least on the NQ, but all anyone could talk about was how boring and slow it was. Which makes me wonder (again) why people love the ES so much.....

 

Because most of us don't like trading when the volume is next to zero. Here is a blow-up of a couple of minutes, only just after the open:

 

 

The volume here is lower than last week, where if I recall correctly you said you would stay out of the market all week because the moves were more 'random' than the result of trading behaviour...

 

Old ladies... old ladies.

 

The range of the old lady today is actually worth more than the whole range of the NQ, in terms of absolute value.

 

Just for the record, I trade all e-minis, and have no real preference towards one market in particular.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Because most of us don't like trading when the volume is next to zero.

 

The volume here is lower than last week, where if I recall correctly you said you would stay out of the market all week because the moves were more 'random' than the result of trading behaviour...

 

That was last week. This is the end of the quarter, and we opened dead on resistance.

 

The range of the old lady today is actually worth more than the whole range of the NQ, in terms of absolute value.

 

Doesn't really matter what the range is if it isn't being traded.

 

My point was and is that while the NQ was bouncing around from support to resistance on multiple levels like a pinball, the general consensus was that nothing was going on and nothing was worth trading. This may have been the case with the ES, but, again, if that's the case, why focus on the ES in the first place?

[firewalker 10]

That was last week. This is the end of the quarter, and we opened dead on resistance.

 

Perhaps, but I did see a couple of good trades last week too, especially on Monday and Tuesday. What difference does end of quarter make?

 

As for opening dead on resistance, I don't see it that way... Imho, 1178 was potential support: (a) we had the PDC, (b) we had the lows on the 26th where price reversed and © we had two reactions there on the shortened trading day on the 24th. But I guess this isn't about what I saw...

 

Doesn't really matter what the range is if it isn't being traded.

 

With all due respect, despite the lack of real trades, there are still people looking at the charts all day like that_one_guy.

 

My point was and is that while the NQ was bouncing around from support to resistance on multiple levels like a pinball, the general consensus was that nothing was going on and nothing was worth trading. This may have been the case with the ES, but, again, if that's the case, why focus on the ES in the first place?

 

Although I can't speak for the rest, I mentioned the possibility of going long after the news around 872 with the eye on resistance at or around 886. As it turns out, price spent three quarters of the day in a tight 5-point range, but did eventually reach the destination. Personally, I don't like that kind of dullness, but that's just me. End of day, it was worth 15 points and I should've taken it instead of just talking about it.

 

I agree the NQ provided more opportunities from both sides today, but the same can be said about last week. Some people didn't like it then, some people don't like it now...

[DbPhoenix 42]

Not looking for an argument. Just trying to understand the lure of the ES. Whether I do or not, though, isn't all that important.

[atto 20]

In all seriousness, I'm not particularly biased from one or the other (I traded more NQ over the summer). I was making more money on ES, so have focused on that one more. In error? Possibly.

[jasont 10]

Honestly this conversation is about as productive as suggesting one should trade FX because it makes big moves more commonly than Futures. The lure of the ES is that some people, myself being one of them, is that they understand its movement better than other markets. Hence they can pull more money from it than other markets, independent of how much that particular market moves, in a range sense.

 

The market traded really is obsolete if one can pull money from it. All that really matters is that one can consistently pull money and then size positions accordingly. Let's not forget 10 YM points and 2.5 NQ points equal 1 ES point. But really, who cares how much it moves if one can pull consistent funds from it.

 

I placed a couple of simulation trades yesterday to keep my mind sharp over the break. There was points to be made but I am the first to say it was painful waiting for things to set up as it resembled grass growing. 5.25 points movement on the ES in 45 minutes and 7.5 points movement in the NQ is hardly riveting. That being said, there were points to be made.

 

The pits yesterday were less than 30% full, really I don't think anyone could expect anything more until next week at least. In all fairness Db, my opinion is that this week being the end of the quarter is no different to last week. All the big guys have tied up their loose ends prior to last week and are now on holidays.

 

Also, isn't resistance and support made by the players in the game? Therefore if the players who are trading according to that support and resistance aren't there, wouldn't that make it less important to trade?

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

Also, isn't resistance and support made by the players in the game? Therefore if the players who are trading according to that support and resistance aren't there, wouldn't that make it less important to trade?

 

Again, I'm not looking for an argument. I acknowledge your reasons for trading the ES and leave it at that.

 

But as for the traders who are trading S/R not "being there", somebody was trading, and they prompted two reversals and two breakouts, all of which were worth trading.

 

It looks like tomorrow we'll be opening again at another resistance level, which may make the morning, at least, worth trading. Won't know till then. If the volume is there at those levels, as it was today, I see no reason not to trade them.

[jasont 10]

Understood Db. I agree that there were opportunities for trading and that obviously traders were there. I suppose it just comes down to what one looks for in a market and what their requirements are.

[firewalker 10]

Again, I'm not looking for an argument. I acknowledge your reasons for trading the ES and leave it at that.

 

But as for the traders who are trading S/R not "being there", somebody was trading, and they prompted two reversals and two breakouts, all of which were worth trading.

 

It looks like tomorrow we'll be opening again at another resistance level, which may make the morning, at least, worth trading. Won't know till then. If the volume is there at those levels, as it was today, I see no reason not to trade them.

 

No argument, just an exchange of thoughts...

 

I agree there were good enough opportunities to trade, but the same can be said about last week. Which prompts the question what makes this week different from then, when you considered the market more random than normal?

[DbPhoenix 42]

So the NQ reached 25 after all (or, technically, 24.75).

 

Apart from that, this is the gold chart I was referring to today:

[DaKine 10]

^ This is the context of the conversation if anyone else was wondering...

 

[17:37:04] cowseathay: Db, do you have any opinions on Gold?

[17:37:54] DbPhoenix: In terms of the chart, the buying opportunity is past.

[17:38:24] DbPhoenix: But if inflation kicks in .....

[17:38:41] cowseathay: was the buying opportunity at 70?

[17:39:40] DbPhoenix: Depends on how you're buying it, but it was mid-November.

[atto 20]

Re: All you need is a chart

 

Hahaha, you guys are hilariously awesome.