Chat Junkies

[firewalker 10]

ES: 800 / 807 / 814 / 821 (hmm 7 seems to be the rule here

 

that's starting to get freaky. next level today formed at 828. 7 higher as well.

Is the market speaking to me :question:

[That One Guy 10]

I played around with some historical data for the QQQQ. Here is the volume distribution from the 2000 highs to now. Interesting to note that we stopped at Upper value in 2007 and now stopping at lower value here in 2009. I wouldn't be surprised if we trade back up to 40 in the QQQQ, which would be the 2008 lows.

 

 

Lets dial in a little further and look at the the distribution from the 2007 highs.

You will note the massive volume building up down here at the lows. The fact we are coming into developing value (green dashed line) and that there is a massive gap in the volume profile where price spent little to no time trading there. Looking at all this, if the bulls can gain more control of price and find interest above this 1285 area on the NQ the potential for a decent rally taking us back to 2008 lows, is definitely in the cards.

 

 

We can zoom in a little further to look for some short term potential resistance that may cause a problem on the way up. Here we see the market from the August highs to now. We see volume has been heavily distributed here at the lows. We have now pushed back into developing value for that time period and heading back to the mean. A push into that mean may be a place for this short term rally to stall out and see a decent pull back.

 

 

 

Looking at all the above charts you can see we have extended down far from the mean of each of those time frames. However, take a look at the one that has seen the most activity since it has been set in motion. From this time frame (9/19/08 swing point and test of August swing high mean) we are starting to push above the mean(POC, mid point) with the volume being heavily stacked below us, the people on the wrong side of the trade, may exit this market furiously and we could see a push to the upper extreme of this time frame. View this information any way you want, I am just building a case for a decent market rally that could last well into the summer. (just like last year)

 

 

Any thoughts on these ideas or criticism will be greatly appreciated, thanks for your time.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I played around with some historical data for the QQQQ. Here is the volume distribution from the 2000 highs to now. Interesting to note that we stopped at Upper value in 2007 and now stopping at lower value here in 2009. I wouldn't be surprised if we trade back up to 40 in the QQQQ, which would be the 2008 lows.

 

Thanks for posting these tonite. As I've said, I saw no reason why we shouldn't get at least to the February highs, and we're more or less there. Next step is 34 on the Q, and given the strength of the volume of advancers, that shouldn't be too difficult. Tho maybe not tomorrow:)

 

Technology, of course, is the strongest sector, and the SPX and Dow have their own issues. They may provide a brake. Even so, the wind would appear to be at our backs for the time being.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I wasn't going to post anything bec I didn't think we'd drop back into the range overnite, but here we are. More ops this way but also more complexity.

[That One Guy 10]

This is QQQQ from the march low bottom. We see 3 distinct volume at price peaks, where price may clearly have a memory. As you can see today we pushed to one of these volume peaks and went sideways almost all day.

 

 

If the buy the dips mentality is still intact, (even know we haven't broken 1285) I would watch these ares to see if buyers re-emerge. Currently that seems to be the case.

 

 

I am watching some short term areas for the market to trade back up to, to retest buying interest back above, and potentially see shorts re emerge to try for another bearish push lower.

 

 

Any other views of the current price structure for the NQ or ES would be highly appreciated.

 

Thank you

[firewalker 10]

Levels of interest for today:

 

1285, 1295, 1305, 1315, 1325.

 

Hmm, strange coincidence

[Head2k 10]

Levels of interest for today:

 

1285, 1295, 1305, 1315, 1325.

 

Hmm, strange coincidence

Given the premarket action so far I will be preferably looking for a short off ~1311. Another option for me is to look for longs in or slightly above 1291-94 zone, if some solid support is found there first. And of course there is 1285.

[wjrusnak 10]

Alright, unless overnight does something crazy again, this is what I'm looking at for tomorrow. If you have anything else to add, please do so.

 

Before it plummeted, the NQ made an overnight range which I have boxed at the top left. So far this bottom of this box is representing some R here in the evening. I'm also looking for importance at the top and middle of this box.

 

 

And here is the "zoomed out" view (30 min), which further demonstrates the importance of 1315. As far as downside, I think we can revisit "Firewalker's levels" at 1285 and 1305.

 

[wjrusnak 10]

Hmm... Maybe instead of talking about this trend line since open, I should have shut up and traded it? How about Firewalker? :doh:

 

[firewalker 10]

Hmm... Maybe instead of talking about this trend line since open, I should have shut up and traded it? How about Firewalker? :doh:

 

 

Interesting channel, I hadn't paid notice of that lower line to be honest. I did had 1268 as a potential support point, and that's pretty much where we stopped. Funny how all the pieces of the puzzle fit together nicely.

 

Today turned out to be pretty much same as yesterday with a mid-day pause, building up for an EOD "rally" (or something which looks like it).

 

As for how I did, well I shorted off R around 821 ES and long off 812 ES, most trades got out for BE and I ended up throwing in the towel before the real move started. And the NQ trades, well they were posted in the room.

 

I'll leave you with ES chart (important S around 800).

Edited April 7, 2009 by firewalker

[firewalker 10]

I'll leave you with ES chart (important S around 800).

 

Shame about the test happening premarket. We're already up to 816 now so much for planning :doh:

[DbPhoenix 42]

Shame about the test happening premarket. We're already up to 816 now so much for planning :doh:

 

However, you now have your range, at least in the NQ: yesterday's swing low to yesterday's 1050 swing high. No need to guess.

[wjrusnak 10]

A little long term look at what I discovered last night at 1 am. We have that bull channel and the newest bear channel. Should be able to tell who wins here in the next day or so. (or today... who knows...)

 

[firewalker 10]

However, you now have your range, at least in the NQ: yesterday's swing low to yesterday's 1050 swing high. No need to guess.

 

Yes, it's been more enjoyable to trade the last couple of days than the week before. Jason doesn't know what he's missing

[DbPhoenix 42]

A reminder of why 1300 is important.

 

 

[firewalker 10]

A reminder of why 1300 is important.

 

The picture on the NQ is becoming more blurry for me. Whatever is in between 1285 and 1340 seems to hold only for short-term S/R, and I'm beginning to wonder what I'm looking at.

 

You said 1300 was important, but I don't really see price reacting to that level, yesterday we reversed off 1294 in the end of the day and had premarket S around 1305.

 

Anyway I was just wondering how the other "Wyckoff"-traders perceive this current price action.

[firewalker 10]

For TOG, who likes channels

[wjrusnak 10]

Alright, Firewalker. This is what I'm looking at on the slightly longer term NQ. Much of me wants to become bearish, but I have a tendency to jump the gun on my calls. Knowing that, I'll continue to wait. If anything we can say that we are losing bull steam here. The last high of 1340 was only 10 points higher than the previous high at 1330. I still have ~1300 as the middle of my second box, but like you said, it is more like 1295. So far this has been a boring week: 1344 to 1294; 50 points to work with throughout the entire session... The news and the rest of the bulls are calling this the expected pullback. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

 

 

EDIT: It seems like we are also breaking that top supply line here in the overnight session. Time to test 40 again it looks like.

Edited April 16, 2009 by wjrusnak
'Cause I can...

[wjrusnak 10]

Gotta post my levels! Anyway, I'm looking at ~ 1300, 1320, 1340, 1360; apparently we as a market love 20 point ranges lately. Another break high, but again... only ~20 points higher than the last? Even though weak, I still have to agree with ToG that we are continuing bull steam ahead.

 

I stated in chat around cash close, when we were at 60, that we would open under 30 tomorrow morning. Looking at overnight so far, I'm only 10 points away from being right and receiving $20 from ToG (he doesn't know we have that bet -- but I owe nothing if I'm wrong )

 

 

EDIT: Something else to keep in mind:

 

"Early morning earnings reports from Citigroup and General Electric, and an update on GM's restructuring, are the key hurdles for stocks Friday." -- CNBC

Edited April 17, 2009 by wjrusnak
'Cause I can...

[firewalker 10]

Gotta post my levels! Anyway, I'm looking at ~ 1300, 1320, 1340, 1360; apparently we as a market love 20 point ranges lately. Another break high, but again... only ~20 points higher than the last? Even though weak, I still have to agree with ToG that we are continuing bull steam ahead.

 

I stated in chat around cash close, when we were at 60, that we would open under 30 tomorrow morning. Looking at overnight so far, I'm only 10 points away from being right and receiving $20 from ToG (he doesn't know we have that bet -- but I owe nothing if I'm wrong )

 

How ironic the market finally makes a decent move in a short time at exactly the moment I am not around! So we did break resistance around 1340 finally. But... which was the game plan for today, we already had a test of that from the other side premarket.

 

You say we only got +/- 20 points higher yesterday, which is true, but at least the range from LO-HI was a decent 35 points. Recently I'm beginning to find the premarket moves rather predictable while the intraday action can be slower and more erratic. Just look at the ES, it's gone straight up from 854 to 865. :\

[wjrusnak 10]

Friday night and here I am looking at Daily charts. Just thought I would share. I never really examine the YM or ES charts like I do with the NQ, but this is what I came up with.

 

 

The YM successfully broke through 7500 and even found support there. Now it is slowing its rally in the congestion from the earlier part of the year. Considering that, 9000 doesn't look impossible, but these levels will probably provide some sort of trouble.

 

 

The same break through exists for the ES and it also found support. Now, just as the YM, its right back into the congestion area, but more interesting is the R just recently hit at the 870 area. This seems crucial for the ES. Breaking this could mean back up to maybe 950 or so.

 

Overall, this has been one of the most steady and long-lived rallies we've seen since the drop.

 

Anyone else have an opinion? I know TOG feels that we will be moving up yet and by the looks of these charts, it definitely looks possible if we get through this congestion. Anyway, see you guys Monday.

[firewalker 10]

Friday night and here I am looking at Daily charts. Just thought I would share. I never really examine the YM or ES charts like I do with the NQ, but this is what I came up with.

 

Anyone else have an opinion? I know TOG feels that we will be moving up yet and by the looks of these charts, it definitely looks possible if we get through this congestion. Anyway, see you guys Monday.

 

Did you see the DOW Transport chart I posted? It looks almost exactly the same as your DOW Industrials. I'm also looking at that congestion and it seems we are struggling there.

 

You haven't posted an NQ chart, but we are up +30% from the lows in a short time, so it's definitely been an impressive rally.

 

I don't like how the ranges are getting smaller and volatility is decreasing, but we seem to be working towards a converging point, and - as you said in a previous post - new highs don't seem to exceed previous highs by that much. Perhaps this supplyline is one reason of the problem:

 

[wjrusnak 10]

I don't like how the ranges are getting smaller and volatility is decreasing, but we seem to be working towards a converging point, and - as you said in a previous post - new highs don't seem to exceed previous highs by that much. Perhaps this supplyline is one reason of the problem:

 

Nice catch. That supply line is illustrating exactly what I was talking about. I strayed away from posting the NQ since it was so bullish as you've shown here (and you seem to have demonstrated it well). Also if you check out XLF (the financial ETF), it should hit its next swing high in about 2 more points at ~13. All of this in mind, it just seems like a lot of things are setting up as potential Resistance to this rally. I've been bearish since 1300, so I feel that I have to get it right soon lol. And if you can notice from my trading, I am very good at jumping the gun only moments before the move... and then missing it

[That One Guy 10]

Interesting post from Steenbarger.

 

TraderFeed: Integrating Indicators for a Multifaceted Market View

 

Points out 65 day highs minus lows still expanding, but the 20 day highs minus lows has started to flat line some. With ES and Nq pushing to some big resistance zones, I wonder if the market will starting turning more sideways here. Vix has basically been trending down each day, so its clear fear has come off some, but at the same time people are maybe getting too complacent. Still have some big earnings on the table next week.

[firewalker 10]

I should've posted this together with the previous chart, but the top supplyline crossed with R on Friday from couple of months ago (see chart).