Chat Junkies

[firewalker 10]

I don't like how the ranges are getting smaller and volatility is decreasing, but we seem to be working towards a converging point, and - as you said in a previous post - new highs don't seem to exceed previous highs by that much. Perhaps this supplyline is one reason of the problem:

 

Well so much for a converging point. Here's the updated picture:

 

sorry Hlm, I have to take back what I said earlier, the line of least resistance is still up I guess.

[stanlyd 10]

Here is what kept me bias sideways to up today. Note the profile I have in blue here. the development of this profile set this time frame up for an attempt to the upside. This was determined when price made it's way above 7850 area and and higher. What I wanted to see was a pullback to hold the in that green thick 7799 area with the lowest of the range being around 7749. If that 7749 line had broken down I would have considered the attempt up to be a failure. Price did attempt at it later but it never cracked so sticking to the bias the long side. A target upside is another time frame midpoint around 7968 which price did get to but made a crap attempt to get past and back down it went.

So now we have an issue . We have price trapped between these 2 value areas. Note the blue regression line of the profile showing that it hold a slight skew to the upside meaning it would ideally like to work away from that red 7850 line. But, we also have a skew down on the top pushing down and away from the 7968 red line area. Bottom line is these red lined areas are vital areas to look at on the YM. We want to see one of the areas to break and also see the value areas broken . So 7749 down below currently and 8068 upside. These numbers can and will change dynamically based on swings we see overnight and during the open tomorrow but thats how I see it now.

[firewalker 10]

sorry Hlm, I have to take back what I said earlier, the line of least resistance is still up I guess.

 

And so we continue following the path of least resistance.

 

Like I said to TOG today, wait for the EOD rally... we closed at an interesting point. Despite what all the indicators say, we're not yet into overbought territory if you watch the channel.

[DbPhoenix 42]

And so we continue following the path of least resistance.

 

Like I said to TOG today, wait for the EOD rally... we closed at an interesting point. Despite what all the indicators say, we're not yet into overbought territory if you watch the channel.

 

I posted a few charts for Gringo to the WF a few minutes ago that address both the Naz and the SPX. Channels, swing points, resistance. Just makes you go all wet.

[wjrusnak 10]

Needed a break from studying, so I decided to draw on charts...

 

[wjrusnak 10]

Interesting spot for the DOW wouldn't you say?

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

Interesting spot for the DOW wouldn't you say?

 

 

There was distribution in the Materials and Industrials ETFs yesterday but I didn't bother to look at them until today. That would help explain today's action.

[atto 20]

Here we are on NQ. The daily looks rather weak imho, and the Up Dn volume divergence continues.

[atto 20]

This is updated from what I posted earlier today in chat.

 

There was some interest in chat over my Trading Journal. I've had it for a while, and have modified and improved it over time. I cleaned up a large portion of it, and am almost to the point where I'd be fine for others to use it.

 

You guys are free to play around with it and let me know what you think. If there's any problems, let me know. It's designed for Excel 2007, so the .xls version does not work quite as well, but I'm leaving it here because several of you don't have Excel 2007 (a free alternative is OpenOffice).

 

I think my instructions included are clear, but let me know if you have any issues. Once you guys play around with this enough and I iron out some kinks, I'll post it for the general TL public.

 

As a visual comparison, this is how it should look (Excel 2007):

The spreadsheet calculates most of that data. Only date, time, instrument, size, and price are required (but the REAL reason this is here is for the Setup / Reason and the Comments).

 

Note: The Stats is dirty and not complete (daily/weekly tracking isn't included yet). I'm working on it.

tradejournal.zip

Edited June 20, 2009 by atto

[DbPhoenix 42]

This is updated from what I posted earlier today in chat.

 

There was some interest in chat over my Trading Journal. I've had it for a while, and have modified and improved it over time. I cleaned up a large portion of it, and am almost to the point where I'd be fine for others to use it.

 

Thank you for posting this. You have no idea how pleased I am to see this kind of product.

[ihm 10]

atto. Thanks for the journal.

[atto 20]

New version.

 

Fixed a couple bugs, and added Daily Statistics functionality. Everything is automatically populated (it starts with today, and moves back in time). Weekends are optionally excluded from reporting. Two versions again, no idea how well the .xls version holds up. Everything you need to know should be on the Info worksheet. Could someone let me know what doesn't work as it should?

 

What features should I add?

tradejournal2.zip

[ihm 10]

New version.

 

Fixed a couple bugs, and added Daily Statistics functionality. Everything is automatically populated (it starts with today, and moves back in time). Weekends are optionally excluded from reporting. Two versions again, no idea how well the .xls version holds up. Everything you need to know should be on the Info worksheet. Could someone let me know what doesn't work as it should?

 

What features should I add?

I got #NUM! errors in Daily Statistics.

also on the graph. can you label blue and brown lines? One is the PnL line, what's the other one (drawdown?)?

[atto 20]

I got #NUM! errors in Daily Statistics.

also on the graph. can you label blue and brown lines? One is the PnL line, what's the other one (drawdown?)?

There's some bug, I'll fix it tonight. For now, put =TODAY() into that first cell, and it'll all work.

 

Yeah, I can label the plots. It's P/L and drawdown.

[ihm 10]

New version.

 

Fixed a couple bugs, and added Daily Statistics functionality. Everything is automatically populated (it starts with today, and moves back in time). Weekends are optionally excluded from reporting. Two versions again, no idea how well the .xls version holds up. Everything you need to know should be on the Info worksheet. Could someone let me know what doesn't work as it should?

 

What features should I add?

how about one simple statistic? "%Net" = Net Profit/Gross Profit. so we know how much profit we keep (or commission we pay), percentage wise.

[DbPhoenix 42]

how about one simple statistic? "%Net" = Net Profit/Gross Profit. so we know how much profit we keep (or commission we pay), percentage wise.

 

You don't get to keep any. It all goes to atto.

[atto 20]

You don't get to keep any. It all goes to atto.

On the upside, he gets a pretty cool trading journal. Fair trade imho.

 

ihm, added. I'll upload a new copy tomorrow.

[atto 20]

Lied about the whole tomorrow thing. Whoops. Has anyone else noticed any problems? I think I'll post it for TL tonight or tomorrow.

 

By the way, if any of you guys need monitors, Dell's running an excellent deal. 23" full HD Samsung for $180. I'm switching out my 19" for this one.. Dell : Samsung Samsung 2333SW 23-inch Widescreen Black Flat Panel LCD Monitor : Displays : Small & Medium Business

[DbPhoenix 42]

Lied about the whole tomorrow thing. Whoops. Has anyone else noticed any problems? I think I'll post it for TL tonight or tomorrow.

 

By the way, if any of you guys need monitors, Dell's running an excellent deal. 23" full HD Samsung for $180. I'm switching out my 19" for this one.. Dell : Samsung Samsung 2333SW 23-inch Widescreen Black Flat Panel LCD Monitor : Displays : Small & Medium Business

 

I don't NEED one, but a 23" Samsung HD for $180 plus free shipping? Duh!

 

Thanks for the heads up. Should be here by mid-week.

 

Now I can keep my chat window open all the time.........

[atto 20]

Something to play with.. I started writing a PnF implementation for NinjaTrader, and am not sure how to allow someone to set box size (since the period is only one variable, which I made the reversal size). However, I actually like what came out. Not sure if I'll ever use it, but you guys can mess around with it.

 

It's similar to a Range chart, but a new bar is not drawn if the direction is the same.

 

Wave 2 tick

 

Wave 10 tick

 

Wave 20 tick

WaveBarType.zip

[Head2k 10]

Speaking of PnF, once I coded it for AmiBroker. I didn't get far with it, so the box is preset to 1 point and can't be adjusted. The indicator has to be layed over price chart (because of proper y-axis scaling) and it converts the visible price chart to 1 PnF chart.

 

Figure Chart.rar

[DbPhoenix 42]

For those who are interested, I wrapped up the canaries thread here.

[cowseathay 10]

I thought today was a great day to see many of the Wyckoff concepts in action in a very clear way. I'm attaching a 5s and 1M chart of the NQ from this morning pointing out a few key clues to the beginning of the giant reversal that occurred. And all of these clues were pointed out in real time in chat by Db, atto and others.

 

You can see that with each potential selling climax price drops sharply with a dramatic increase in volume. The final climax that occurred didn't seem to have any big volume bar, but a lot of volume occurred in a small period of time, which you may not pick up if you were following bar by bar. Also, note that the final climaxes and shakeout occurred at support (or right below), which signals a much higher chance of a reversal than if they occurred in the middle of nowhere. You can also see lower volume on the test, and then large volume during the shakeout followed by rapid price reversal. The job of a shakeout is to get rid of "weak hands" so that a new move could be started. And as you can see that job was accomplished with great success.

 

 

 

 

If I've made any mistakes please let me know and I'll correct it.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Would you mind posting these in the Trading The Wyckoff Way thread as well? A simple copy-and-paste will do (if I do it, my name will be on it). I have some comments to make about S/R, but I'd rather make them there, given the floundering I see with regard to several other approaches, and the possibility that the simplicity of this might be more appealing to some than what they're currently bogged down in.

[atto 20]

Yep. Price gave several scaleout opportunities for the short. And on the long, there were several decent spots to add or initiate a position if you didn't catch the bottom real time (I didn't).

 

I got in at the springboard shortly after the bottom. Volume spiked as price broke the 08 area again (longer term zone), and then entered a period of sideways congestion as volume tailed off. On top of that, you have the bounce off of S to the lows, and a series of hh's and hl's (a trend up).

 

The circled areas are places that I'd enter. Logical stops on both are at 07.00-07.25.