Chat Junkies

[firewalker 10]

Re: All you need is a chart

 

Hahaha, you guys are hilariously awesome.

 

He's lucky we had such a nice trending day that kept me in a good mood today... You don't want to catch see me on bad days!

[stanlyd 10]

RE All you need is a chart

if that guy has anything to actually bring to trading he will show up in the live room. Something tells me he won't tho.

Edited January 2, 2009 by stanlyd

[firewalker 10]

Re: All you need is a chart

 

Hahaha, you guys are hilariously awesome.

 

Tickets for the show on Monday now available.

Limited front seats.

[firewalker 10]

NYSE:

Up Volume 3,546,250,361 (87%)

Down Volume 501,057,332 (12%)

Unchanged Volume 28,447,590 (1%)

 

NASDAQ:

Up Volume 1,324,206,097 (90%)

Down Volume 129,504,182 (9%)

Unchanged Volume 10,769,831 (1%)

[DbPhoenix 42]

RE All you need is a chart

if that guy has anything to actually bring to trading he will show up in the live room. Something tells me he won't tho.

 

Remember the kid who went on and on about "hidden" buyers and sellers or whatever it was and had a website where he was selling his system and we kept pushing him to come to the chat room and demonstrate how he traded all this hidden stuff and he finally agreed to come and didn't and was never heard from again?

 

In any case, 868 makes all his money in a few seconds with huge size, so I doubt there'd be anything to show in a chat room. He'd be all done by 0935 anyway.

[atto 20]

Okkkay, charts.

 

Indexes broke the mid-late December congestion area on lower volume (which is to be expected around holidays, and a Friday). However, volume is increasing, and the thrust out was much quicker than the slide down. As FW pointed out, it was a 90% uvol day. On the flip side, $NAUD is showing a divergence compared to the last high in this congestion.

 

 

 

Our friend, Crude (looking at USO, specifically). We've continued to attract huge volume (on the holidays, no less). The last swing low has been broken, but we're right at a supply line from late Nov. The next potential area of resistance is $40ish. On our hypothetical short, I would scale out on the break of the supply line (if not already done so at break of last swing low).

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

A few adds to the honorable atto's superlative commentary.

 

This chart isn't much different to what I've posted previously, so I won't bother to redraw the boxes. However, the "POC" line is worth noting, as is the convergence of the channel line with the last November swing point at 1400. As to the channels, I'm still not persuaded as to their reliability. However, lots of people do watch them, and there must be some self-fulfilling prophecy dynamic going on there. In any case, they do serve to track changes in momentum. What is most important, however, is a break through congestion, which we appear to have accomplished today, though volume, 90% or not, was pretty anemic.

 

 

As to the NAUD, it is useful also to look at the NAUPV and NADNV separately. One can often gain insights there which might otherwise be overlooked.

 

 

 

 

[atto 20]

Whoops, just realized the USO supply line I referred to wasn't on the chart. Doh, updated (dark blue)..

 

Db, so you'd say the divergence isn't that noteworthy, since $NADNV was less than on the previous highs anyways, so it's not as though the bears are piling in? Chart:

[DbPhoenix 42]

Db, so you'd say the divergence isn't that noteworthy, since $NADNV was less than on the previous highs anyways, so it's not as though the bears are piling in? Chart:

 

To me it's noteworthy, though perhaps for other reasons. We commented throughout the day on how far price was going on so little volume. There seemed to be little or no resistance on the part of sellers to the advance. These charts bear that out. And the fact that "up" volume was less than it had been on the previous efforts (in red) suggests that the victory did not mean quite as much as it would have if it had been hard-won.

 

This doesn't mean that there may not be a hell of an advance, but I don't believe we're done, any more than we were done with the "selling climax" discussed in the SC thread.

Edited January 3, 2009 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

For use today as a reference point, the "test" of the 12/11 low was not quite as decisive on the NQ as on the NDX (posted earlier by atto). What any of this means, of course, beats the hell out of me, but it should make for an interesting day.

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

I didn't do sufficient homework (blame it on the holidays). It may be coincidence that the high for today coincided with the midpoint of the range either side of 10/20, but there was also quite a bit of congestion after 11/6 around that point. But 1250 is still important, as is now today's high, then 1300 and the entire zone between that and 1350. Quite frankly, I don't think the bulls have it in them, but we'll see.

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

Left off the other midpoint and can't edit the above post:

 

[atto 20]

We can only that the bulls can do it ( don't kill me)

 

(On a related note, the Tecumseh Curse only has 14 more days... hmmm)

[stanlyd 10]

I thought it would be interesting to post my NQ chart as well with the timeframe regressions I have been talking about as of late. SO here we are looking at the longeer timeframe (purple) the last bear push (green) and the current "trend" up(blue).

Again I just think it's another way of looking at it, not that it's for everyone but it's what I do.

What I kind of focus on is the slopes. You see the green line is starting to turn positive but it's not yet. So as these blue line folks push it, that green line acts as a nice bouncy board. Once they both are positive then we will look for a attempt to "battle and and a pullback. If the pullback holds then the green line folks are out of the picture, but till then I still watch that point of regression. It's not really as simple of coarse as blue line ,green line, etc, but I think it's gives a more general scope of market flow.

Of coarse the longer term (purple) is nowhere near positive yet.

Have a good evening guys. See you in the AM.

Edited January 6, 2009 by stanlyd

[mong 10]

I thought it would be interesting to post my NQ chart as well with the timeframe regressions I have been talking about as of late. SO here we are looking at the longeer timeframe (purple) the last bear push (green) and the current "trend" up(blue).

Again I just think it's another way of looking at it, not that it's for everyone but it's what I do.

What I kind of focus on is the slopes. You see the green line is starting to turn positive but it's not yet. So as these blue line folks push it, that green line acts as a nice bouncy board. Once they both are positive then we will look for a attempt to "battle and and a pullback. If the pullback holds then the green line folks are out of the picture, but till then I still watch that point of regression. It's not really as simple of coarse as blue line ,green line, etc, but I think it's gives a more general scope of market flow.

Of coarse the longer term (purple) is nowhere near positive yet.

Have a good evening guys. See you in the AM.

 

nice chart stan. when you say green line i'm thinking your talking about the longer downward sloping regression line (light green) and not the down sloping dark green ma.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Regression lines are a great way to wean beginners away from an exclusive focus on trendlines or moving averages to show trend. It depresses me to see how many traders, after a certain point, are no longer able to tell whether the market is going up or down. Thier moving averages can become a nest of snakes, and their trendlines can wind up looking like Pik-Up-Stix. Regression lines can put them back on the straight and narrow, even if they don't choose the absolutely correct high and low for the line.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Tried to post this to the chat room, but the files tab wouldn't work:

 

[HAKUNA 10]

Db,

Could not come into the chatroom today, what were you trying to illustrate, presume a hinge

[firewalker 10]

Tried to post this to the chat room, but the files tab wouldn't work:

 

I have that problem frequently. Logging out and back in usually resolves it.

 

About the chart...

 

(a) how about considering the whole move as a bigger pullback after breaking below 1247-1250?

 

(b) green dot is potential long, but what with resistance so close?

 

© and what's at 1240 hmm...

[DbPhoenix 42]

Yes, Hakuna.

 

(a) That would work.

 

(b) Well, that's why I didn't take the earlier short. I try to avoid learning the same lesson too many times. As it turned out, it was worth only a few points, but what the hell.

 

© Good question.

[atto 20]

 

This hinge ended up going for a few points, pulling back to the midpoint (to the tick), and then going another 10. If I took it (I didn't, so know it's hindsight), it went far enough that I'd be out on the break back past the hinge's high (somewhere in 47 NQ). To take the midpoint long again, I'd need some sort of confirmation that the area would be viable to attract bulls again. This came right before the open, when price bounced hard off... you guess it, 45 NQ. 45 also gave a little resistance at 10:30 est. Fwiw, later, price bounced again off 45.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I said in chat that I'd provide an example of how to use a tick divergence (using in my case the TICKQ). There are a number of examples in the Dailies in my Blog, but today is fresh in the minds of those who were there.

 

There are going to be many divergences between the tick and price throughout the day. But you want to pay attention only to those which occur at some important level, preferably S or R of some kind. Otherwise, you're just taking shots in the dark.

 

This first chart provides the context and what to look for regarding R.

 

 

Note that 55 provides potential S at 0815. It's then tested later from the downside. Then from the downside again after the open. Then price fails to breach that level from 0955 to 1000. This makes 55 a level to keep an eye on.

 

Later, price hits this level again.

 

 

And here is a blow-up of price action at this level. Note that all these charts address the same timeframe (a term that is commonly misused). Their difference lies in the bar interval, from 5s to 1m.

 

 

Now even if one weren't paying any attention to the tick at all, much less any other instrument, the failure of buyers to get through R twice (actually four times on the 5s) would be enough justification to short.

 

However,

 

 

The tick shows a clear divergence, at R, between itself and price. In and of itself, it may not be enough. But as confirmation of what one already thinks should be done, it is at least useful.

 

 

[mong 10]

 

 

hey D,

 

refferring to 1st chart:

 

was it the second test (3rd red dot) from the down side that made it an important level ??

 

or could you also consider it important for use after the first downside test?

 

thanks, cheers marius (aka mong).

 

nice work!

[mong 10]

db, is this the right way to go about finding those important levels??

 

ta. mong.

[Head2k 10]

Here is a couple of boxes. And altough I had the white boxes drawn yesterday before open I failed to recognize what was happening.

 

First price bounced off 1245 in premarket. Could be a nice long if one actually trades premarket. But then we failed to get through 56, the midpoint of a smaller box. Then we broke below 45, recovered, but again failed to breach that midpoint.

 

Db posted excelent analysis and I am posting this just to show some context of the 55 level.