Thoughts on Forex Volume

[cowpip 10]

Actually seems to me the best one could hope to do would be disprove the theory as there might be a third (unknown) process driving both series and that's one of a couple of places where Granger breaks down (based on my admittedly limited understanding).

 

A third process... oh yes... undoubtably there is. Take your pick: seismic events, the rate of meteor falls, sunspot counts, confirmed werewolf sightings, and the rates of humping elephants. One of those will surely be correlated.

[atto 20]

I think you might be judging those that hang out here rather harshly and with a broad brush.

My intent was not to be harsh, apologies for coming across like that.

[BlowFish 10]

A third process... oh yes... undoubtably there is. Take your pick: seismic events, the rate of meteor falls, sunspot counts, confirmed werewolf sightings, and the rates of humping elephants. One of those will surely be correlated.

 

And of course there is GJ closing out positions for holiday cash. I would guess planetary alignment is not highly correlated as there is no central exchange for FX and hence not a single location to calculate aspects from.

 

My intent was not to be harsh, apologies for coming across like that.

 

Hehe I am thick skinned and not one of the industrious anyway. There are one or two here that are pretty rigorous and a bit more 'quantitative'.

[cowpip 10]

And of course there is GJ closing out positions for holiday cash. I would guess planetary alignment is not highly correlated as there is no central exchange for FX and hence not a single location to calculate aspects from.

 

Heh heh... yip.

 

I think this topic has been exhausted. Thanks GammaJammer for your persistence and clarity.

[GammaJammer 10]

Agree - been done to death a bit (and I admit towards the end I was getting bored and fractious meself). Prior to that, hope I added a few useful insights.

 

And thanks Blowfish for your comments on Granger causality - interesting. And you're right - the people who are comfortable working with something like R or Matlab probably aren't mucking about in spot FX My point was a more general one though that the tools to progress the debate a little DO exists, and they would at least be a welcome breath of fresh air and a change from all the conjecture.

 

Good afternoon / evening all.

 

GJ