Jonbig04's Log

[jonbig04 10]

Well I've been working on this rule set for a while now, I wouldnt call this the first day. But yes relatively low accuracy with high R/R is the idea. Oh and I never move my stops. Ever.

Edited October 27, 2008 by jonbig04

[ITR2744 10]

P.S.: You forgot to attach the screenshot of 10/15 to your post.

 

maybe I'm blind bit I cannot see attachments/screenshots from his recent trading days at all?!

[jonbig04 10]

Errrr yea. sorry about that. I know it makes the journal kind of useless, but I'm not really supposed to post the actual charts.

[ITR2744 10]

ah ok no problem... I was just confused as I didn't find a reference for your "blue arrows"

[jonbig04 10]

Yea i saw that, I'm an idiot. There's no escaping it.

[AgeKay 10]

jonbig04 has exceeded their stored private messages quota and cannot accept further messages until they clear some space.

 

I wanted to send you a PM and that is what I got. Could you clear your messages please?

[jonbig04 10]

Haha yea its done now.

[jonbig04 10]

Not much for today. I missed the long at 1183 (tried to get too good of an entrance lol), sucks because that would have been a nice trade in the morning. Price action was pretty clean today, I should have made out like a bandit, instead i end up +0.

 

I'm going to do some more trading via replays. Probably see if I can get through 2 days in september. Will post results.

 

Another thing, if price drops much more I won't be able to trade, ay least for a while. I dont have any price analysis for levels lower than where we are. My data doesn't go back far enough. Stupid, I hope it rallies.

Edited October 27, 2008 by jonbig04

[jonbig04 10]

Did a replay of 9/16.

 

1st trade -4, -4, -4

2nd trade -4, -4, -4

 

3rd trade-no fill. I tried to short during the day and the trade was a good one, but the move happened SO quickly I couldn't get fill. I went back to make sure and there is no way I could have caught the move in real time. Sucks because it would have been a decent trade.

 

4th trade. +18, +11, +11 Nice long at the end of the day. 1st target hit (18 points) and almost hit the second target (36 points) but not quite. Price retraced quite a bit and I sold at the end of the day as I'm not allowed to hold positions over night, which is how I got the +11s.

 

end of day= +5 AVG.

[AgeKay 10]

I dont have any price analysis for levels lower than where we are.

 

What does that look like in general? Do you look at past prices that seemed to act as support/resistance?

[jonbig04 10]

I suppose thats a general way to put it, yes.

[jonbig04 10]

Good day today. Its nice to see my replay results weren't flukes.

 

Took a long in the morning, was quickly stopped out. Entry could have been better, but I was wrong anyways so I would have gotten stopped out anyway.

1st trade

-4. -4. -4

 

Then tried a short. I messed up here as i only had a 1 point stop. Just typed the wrong number in the stop loss field. I was stopped at at the 1 point, but since I meant for my stop to be a full 4 and that would have been hit as well I count it as

 

2nd trade

-4. -4. -4

 

Then I took a long at 12EST. Good entry, took about 1.5 points heat. Awesome trade.

 

3rd trade

+18, +36, +54

 

I tried to take another long at 1227 At 15:04 or so. There was a part of me that wanted to stop trading. A little bitch part. Always follow your rules. When they work, and when they dont. I overcame it thought and searched for my entry. However I missed the entry. Price wasn't nice enough to make it obvious. Too bad too because I would have hit all my targets with this trade as well. Need to work on my entries some more and learning to read the chart with more accuracy. This way price doesn't have to make it obvious for me to get a good entrance. It was a nice day but I missed 36 more points at the end of the day, need to fix that. I will do some more replays tonight.

 

Anyways, for the day:

 

+28AVG

[AgeKay 10]

You know, if you're able to keep this up consistently with these results when you're trading live, you'll make a shit load of money as long you manage your risk correctly.

[jonbig04 10]

Consistency is the tough part. Anyone can do well for a couple days like I did. As you can see, a bad day can set me back quite a bit. Today was a good day, but it should have been better. The PA was so clean, it seems like everybody made money (not possible i know) so I need to be able to really capitalize on days like today... it should have been a +64 day, but instead was just a +28. I need to work on that. I'm just a piker trying to learn like a lot of others. Managing risk is another. I do it through hard stops, but as I get more precise entries I should be able to have smaller stops. Come to think of it, I'm not sure I need a 4 point stop.

 

Anyways, no replays tonight. i'm a slacker I know. Ill make up for it tomorrow though.

[jonbig04 10]

Slightly frustrating, slightly uneventful day.

 

I went short early. Was stopped out and price proceeded a mere 1.25 points above my stop before tanking. Too bad.

 

1st trade, -4, -4 ,-4

 

Then I tried to short again. Missed the damn fill and price tanked again.

 

2nd trade, no fill

 

Then I went short AGAIN. this time the trade went 15.5 points my way, just 2.5 points away from my first target before coming all the way back up to stop me out. Watching +15 go to -4? Ouch. NQ is a bitch sometimes lol.

 

-8 AVG for the day.

 

I have no excuse for what should have been a stellar day.

[jonbig04 10]

9/26

Did some replay testing. I'm confused slightly because the results seem to me too...good. I've checked everything and I'm not accidentally skewing the results my way...I don't know what the deal is. Anyways the results aren't as important as what i'm trying to accomplish: better entries. Thats the whole reason I'm doing this, to get more surgical entries. The best example is this trade. I was stopped out once, then took a long. It was a good trade because I love the entry. The support took a lot of heat before by first target was reached, but since the entry was precise the trade stayed intact and ended up being a nice gain. I had to sell early because of the end of the day. This wasn't my best day of the replay testing I did tonight, but Im most proud of this entry.

 

1st trade: -4. -4 . -4

 

2nd trade +18, +27.25, +27.25

 

+20 AVG

 

9/24

I replayed through 9/25, but there were no entries that day. Weird, but it happens...a flaw in my rules I hope to fix. Here's 9/24:

 

Took no trades almost all day. I was about to say F it and go to the next day, but I'm not allowed to do that. So I stuck with it and sure enough I got an entry in like 5 minutes before close. I just figured it would probably end up being +1 or -1 or whatever, but the sucker rallied hard for the next 5 minutes. I hit my first target just before close and sold the other 2 on close. Ha, the markets weird thing.

 

One trade

+18, +19, +19

 

+18.66AVG

 

9/23

This was an up day, but I believe it represents a failure because the entry was crappy, as you can see. My large 4 point stop saved the trade, but like I said the whole point of replay testing is to get more precise entries. This one hit 2 targets then fell almost all the way back to break even, I sold at the end of the day.

 

1 trade

 

+18, +36, +1

 

+18.33AVG

 

 

I won't be posting my replay results anymore. Since they aren't real time they don't count, even though I try to make it as realistic as possible while still maximizing how many I can get done. I think I'm going to goo look up like 50 entries and just skip to them and see how precise I can enter. That would be better than testing a whole day and keeping track of points that don't really count.

[jonbig04 10]

Gosh NQ was on crack this afternoon. Pisses me off. I want to see how everybody made money on the NQ today during the afternoon. thing was all over the place..

 

Took a short in the morning, was quickly stopped out.

1st trade

-4, -4 ,-4

 

Then another short, went down a good 11 points before coming back to stop me out

2nd trade

-4, -4 ,-4

 

Then a long after lunch, hit first target, was stopped out on the other 2

third trade...of course it rallied like crazy after stopping me out. My entry was good though, there is not much I could have done that I know of to keep from getting stopped out.

+18, -4, -4

 

And a short right near the close which was of course stopped out.

fourth trade

-4, -4 ,-4

 

I'm so frustrated I'm just going to go take a nap.

[MidKnight 12]

I have no excuse for what should have been a stellar day.

 

How can you say that? It sounds like you have followed all your rules. Nowhere did I read anything in that post about you breaking any rules. The day should not have been stellar, the result was the outcome of your rules - it just is.

 

I personally do not like static stops or targets as to me, the markets require a more dynamic approach.

[jonbig04 10]

How can you say that? It sounds like you have followed all your rules. Nowhere did I read anything in that post about you breaking any rules. The day should not have been stellar, the result was the outcome of your rules - it just is.

 

I honestly feel like I was very unlucky yesterday. First entry was too late, next was too early. But the truth is the rules for my entry are...ambiguous, they leave me room to be somewhat flexible...I think they have to. If I would have entered better yesterday its fair to say that 1 or 2 of those trades would have been a winner. We only talking about a few points here, so thats the part I was frustrated with.

 

I personally do not like static stops or targets as to me, the markets require a more dynamic approach.

 

As of right now my targets are set multiples of my stop. You are right, thats not ideal and exits should be as specific as entries. The reasons the targets are static now is 1. I'm simply working on entries first, 2. With my current low accuracy its forces me into a favorable R/R. So right now Im just focusing on increasing my accuracy via better entries and after that I will max out the r/r with more strategic exits. I don't really see the stops as static though since I decided were to put them.

Edited October 30, 2008 by jonbig04

[jonbig04 10]

I'm going to do what I mentioned yesterday tonight. Look up 5 minute windows where an entry is called for and then see if I can be more precise. I don't really know if I should adjust my entry rules at all or just practice entering over and over. After today and yesterday I kind of feel like a piece of shit, some days I feel like I'm progressing at an acceptable pace, some days I feel like I've never progressed. What I know is I just have to keep at it as fiercely as possible.

[MidKnight 12]

In this biz you will feel like a piece of shit, depressed, dumb, elated, 'da man', pathetic, confused, frustrated, angry, neurotic, narcissistic, and exhausted. Sometimes all on the same day! Get used to it. Learn about yourself and you will figure out ways to deal with it, possibly as simple as the humble acceptance in being human and not superman. I have been fulltime for 4 years and only in my 4th year did some real noticeable improvements start to materialize.

 

As to your prior comment about static stops and targets. What you are doing is static. Sure you picked them, but it doesn't adapt from one day to the next, or even from one trade to the next. This volatility will not last forever. 6 pt spoo ranges will return.

[jonbig04 10]

Yea this volatility is crazy. I dont know if its good for me or bad for me.

[james_gsx 16]

Yea this volatility is crazy. I dont know if its good for me or bad for me.

 

Look at it this way, if you can live to fight another day in this market then you are learning some very important skills. The one thing you should be aware of though, and I'm confident you know this already, is that you need to be able to adapt. This volatility won't last forever, and when it dies down those big 9-20 point trades won't exist. Instead, you'll have to settle for 2-4 if you're lucky. But if you stick to your plan, and learn as much as you can, then this is a very good time to be in the market IMO.

[jonbig04 10]

Good day, only one trade..albeit a very long one, no pun intended. This trade yielded some nice points, but I was most proud of the entrance. I only took 4 ticks or so heat before hitting my first 2 targets so it could have been slightly better, but I'm happy nonetheless. Price came back down and tested the support, but thanks to my precise entry, I didn't get stopped out on my last car and I sold at the end of the day.

 

Exits were a problem today. After I hit my first 2 targets there was a point where, if I had not been in the trade I would have been looking for shorts. Obviously that is dumb. I wanted badly to close out the trade and reverse, but I dont have a rules set for that yet. I will soon, and I know its an area thats need to be worked on b/c that's where the real points are. For now I have to settle for my static targets. No big deal, I will continue working on entries until I feel comfortable with them and start showing some consistency then I will tackle my exit strategy.

 

1 trade

+18, +36, +15.5

 

+23AVG

 

Weekly performance

+34

 

Sweet. Will post some more states later. accuracy etc.

[jonbig04 10]

Look at it this way, if you can live to fight another day in this market then you are learning some very important skills. The one thing you should be aware of though, and I'm confident you know this already, is that you need to be able to adapt. This volatility won't last forever, and when it dies down those big 9-20 point trades won't exist. Instead, you'll have to settle for 2-4 if you're lucky. But if you stick to your plan, and learn as much as you can, then this is a very good time to be in the market IMO.

 

 

Yea I know what you mean. My targets wouldnt be so high (18,36,54 points) if the market wasnt so volatile. Then again, my stops would have to be so large either. I dont see my 2nd or 3rd targets ever being lower than 20 and 30 though, but the market is what dictates of course.