Jonbig04's Log

[jonbig04 10]

So despite all today's testing, everything was for nothing. Blah.

 

I'm open to any suggestions on PA used to identify a trend and verifying the strength of it. Trend lines alone didn't work, neither did supply/deman lines or the channels created by them. .

 

I have a few other things to try, but like I said..I'm open to any suggestions!

[brownsfan019 17]

Regardless of what anyone here can suggest, NOTHING WORKS ALL THE TIME. You will have good and bad days, no matter what methods you are following.

 

But this is part of the learning curve you are going through. One bad day easily means try something else.

 

I can't stress enough - you WILL have LOSING days and plenty of them. Sounds easy to accept, I know. Harder to do in practice though.

 

With that said, as new of a trader as you are, you need to test a few different things and see how it goes.

 

The biggest issue I think you'll encounter is trend vs. non-trend days. For example, moving averages can work beautifully on a trend day and slaughtered on a non-trend day. Reversal patterns are great in non-trend day and slaughtered in a trend day.

 

But we know one thing ... non-trend days are more likely vs. trending days. Trending days show up approx 20% of the time.

 

So in theory... a reversal trading system should make money over time but you have to minimize the impacts of a trending day.

 

If you like the reversal idea, then candlesticks are a great place to start. Check out my little area for some more info.

[brownsfan019 17]

And this thread right here on TL might be one to take a look at as well. The OP is here, so you can interact w/ him.

[jonbig04 10]

I'm curious, what is a trend day? I mean i could look up the answer, but I'm guessing it means different things to different people.

 

Thanks for the links browns. I will check them out. I need all the help I can get.

[brownsfan019 17]

I'm curious, what is a trend day? I mean i could look up the answer, but I'm guessing it means different things to different people.

 

Thanks for the links browns. I will check them out. I need all the help I can get.

 

Great question.

 

I view a trending day as one where it heads in one direction and keeps going in that direction for most/all of the day.

 

Here's a trend day example in my eyes:

 

 

Take that same day and through up some basic MAs:

 

 

 

Same MA's but different day:

 

 

 

IMO in the beginning you have a decision to make - do you want to find and ride when trends appear (like above) or trade reversals. From there, you can decide what to look at closer. Trends are easy to trade with MAs. Reversals are easy to trade w/ some oscillators, candle patterns, etc.

[jonbig04 10]

That makes sense. What about the retracements of the smaller trends, eg 1-3 hour trends? Or of course the daily trends. That what I'm attempting to do anyway..

[jonbig04 10]

So it seems like I may have stumbled upon a way to identify RET producing trends while they still have a good amount of RETs left in them. So far so good. Still more testing to do. I spent most of the day doing calculations and when I went back and looked they had no consistency in identifying RET producing trends and ultra short lived trends.

[AgeKay 10]

Jon, could you please explain what RET means? i've never heard that word before...

[jonbig04 10]

RET= retracement. Sorry, made that one up.

[BlowFish 10]

So despite all today's testing, everything was for nothing. Blah.

 

I'm open to any suggestions on PA used to identify a trend and verifying the strength of it. Trend lines alone didn't work, neither did supply/deman lines or the channels created by them. .

 

I have a few other things to try, but like I said..I'm open to any suggestions!

 

Trend lines 'work' fine. All of the things I mentioned a page or two back 'work' fine. Apart from the (excellent) points Browns makes don't expect to master a tool in a day!

 

Some times things are obvious, other times not sometimes pace picks up...and then declines again. Sometimes a trend line breaks but the trend remains intact. Maybe moving averages may be easier for you, personally I don't care for them much because they are kind of slow (though I do like a 3 period simple MA of HLC/3). You can get a provisional trend line on two bars (though that is perhaps 'unorthodox').

 

Put simply a suitable tool should show some utility straight off but don't expect to 'master' it immediately. Of course if you can not see utility in something then you need to move on. This can easily lead to a search for the holy grail though. It's a bit of a catch 22 that's for sure. imo its probably best to err on the side of caution and waste a bit too much time testing something than throwing the baby out with the bath water.

[jonbig04 10]

You are right. I didn't mean to imply they weren't useful for anyone else, or even for me in some other part of my strategy. Yesterday I was testing something very specific and I couldn't find a way for trend lines to do the job I needed done. I admit I did pretty much hate them for a while for letting me down like that. But like you said, I can't expect to master a tool in a day.

 

I really like S&D lines, just not for this particular step. I do not yet see a use for the MA's beyond being a quicker way to identify trend. I've tried a couple different ones, but they just seem to quantify what I already know, but in a quick glimpse. I have them on my screen though for any possible patterns they might produce. Like you said, might as well test the hell out of something. I'm going to keep that in mind. Thanks.

[jonbig04 10]

I now have what I think to be a consistent way to both identify direction of trend and assessing its ability to RET multiple times without reversing. Yesssss :thumbs up:

 

I also think I have identified the most common characteristics of RETs before and while they occur.

 

Next I'm going to study reversals. Hopefully this will help with a couple different things. First, If I can identify some reoccurring traits of reversals I can differentiate them from RETs, which is obviously important. But also to one day help with actually trading reversals/breakouts, and maybe even one day trading them both at the same time . But for now I'm going to study them with the main goal of avoiding them.

 

My whole scheme is to study different aspects of PA one at a time. Eventually I can start to piece them together and develop a strategy that covers more time and more market conditions. As it is now with this particular strategy, I usually will find the setup I'm looking for 1 or 2 times per day, but sometimes It doesnt show up at all and rarer still it doesnt show up for 2 days at a time. But thats ok because I'm only trading one strategy. Like I said, whenever I can (assuming I make it out of this stage alive) trade this strategy I will be able to focus on other aspects, eventually stringing them all together to have a very good understanding of PA.

 

I can't understand why people try to grasp it all at one time. For me, its not possible. Just trying to comprehend RETs and the common factors in them boggle my mind, I can't imagine trying to predict breakouts, springboards, etc

 

Next I will have to determine an entry/exit strategy, which I know is going to be rough. I plan on using multiple time frames for this, along with scaling in and out, and other ways of hedging risk while maximizing profits. At least thats where I'm going to start. This is where I will determine my stop strategy, including trailing stops etc.

 

 

 

The method is coming a log, one slow step at a time. I guess thats why its called a method, it's created methodically.

[jonbig04 10]

Quick question:

 

I know a lot of you use larger time frame charts to spot potential S/R for intraday trading, which larger time frames do you use?

[AgeKay 10]

Try looking at a point&figure chart to see S/R, large time frames (>30 min ) might swallow S/R points.

[jonbig04 10]

I'm looking those up right now. Interesting.

 

 

The problem I'm running into is when I draw the S/R lines on say a 15 min chart from mon-weds let say on thursday price make new potential S, do I draw that line and keep all the other ones? Do I ever erase the lines if they haven't been active in a while? If not wouldn't I end up with 75 lines on my chart eventually?

 

How do I do when to erase them?

[stanlyd 10]

Sometimes I have two charts for the same product to help with the lines. One I use as a "dirty" chart, in which I keep a lot of my trend lines on from the past.(every few months I clean it up so it doesnt get totally ridiculous) Yes this chart fills up with lots of lines but that's the point of this chart. Then the other chart would be same product and timeframe but clean of all the older lines. This way you can get a decent perspective from both charts and combine the information you get into one plan.

[jonbig04 10]

I never thought of doing that. That makes perfect sense though, this way you don't leave or forget any past lines that may be applicable. Thanks

[jonbig04 10]

Got a little behind on my journal. Honestly its because I've been working too damn hard in trading. Sucking up everything, even my journal time haha. Anyways I'm trying to learn a system and traded for 3 days this week.

 

Results: 4 trades, +6.75.

 

I'll do better next week hopefully, but the point is I'm learning a system. Thats the goal, not necessarily points. Sounds counterintuitive I know, but the more mistakes I make (providing I learned from them) the faster I learn, and yea those mistakes cost points.

[brownsfan019 17]

JB - what setups are you using for your trades? Feel like sharing or no? Might be able to give some feedback and speed up that learning curve if you give us some screenshots and annotations.

 

If not, that's fine too.

 

The one thing that I probably needed more than anything when I started out was just having more sets of eyes look at what I was doing.

[jonbig04 10]

JB - what setups are you using for your trades? Feel like sharing or no? Might be able to give some feedback and speed up that learning curve if you give us some screenshots and annotations.

 

If not, that's fine too.

 

The one thing that I probably needed more than anything when I started out was just having more sets of eyes look at what I was doing.

 

 

I really don't want to sound like an ass, because I've learned SO much from you all and this website, but it's an interesting situation and I can't share exactly what I'm doing, but its all PA. I'm not using indicators or anything like that, I promise. However I would like to continue sharing my progress (or lack thereof) with you guys. I've really been working my ass off and one thing I did learn is you have to sleep, you HAVE to. Otherwise your trading will suffer. I pushed the limits of no sleep and the result was bad trading haha.

[daedalus 10]

^^^ I know exactly how you feel. I've been developing my method for over 2 years and now that its working I wouldn't feel too kindly towards just "giving" it to other people. Maybe thats not the sharing spirit, but its like you've done the work, you should reap the rewards just like anything else in life.

 

I'm willing to help steer people in the right direction but I wouldn't be handing it to anyone.

[jonbig04 10]

Honestly I believe there is subjectivity to all methods, but I'm being mentored and it's not MY decision, thats all.

[brownsfan019 17]

Honestly I believe there is subjectivity to all methods, but I'm being mentored and it's not MY decision, thats all.

 

Enough said.

 

We can assume that either you are paying for a mentorship and/or found a generous soul and there is a condition of non-disclosure.

 

Good luck and hope it works out!

[jonbig04 10]

Enough said.

 

We can assume that either you are paying for a mentorship and/or found a generous soul and there is a condition of non-disclosure.

 

Good luck and hope it works out!

 

 

A generous soul. I lucked out somehow.

[larsdelgars 10]

Got a little behind on my journal. Honestly its because I've been working too damn hard in trading. Sucking up everything, even my journal time haha. Anyways I'm trying to learn a system and traded for 3 days this week.

 

Results: 4 trades, +6.75.

 

I'll do better next week hopefully, but the point is I'm learning a system. Thats the goal, not necessarily points. Sounds counterintuitive I know, but the more mistakes I make (providing I learned from them) the faster I learn, and yea those mistakes cost points.

 

what system are you learning so we can have a discussion.