Jonbig04's Log

[jonbig04 10]

Grr, one thing that keeps annoying me is whether I'm trying to nail the price or the time. I would like to get it at the top with the short, not wait for it to start falling and get fill in some random spot. If you wait for 3 bar or something don't you end up in the middle of nowhere with bad fill?

 

For example, in the attached pic I would like to be in at the first blue arrow, not the second. Because the first one is where R really was, entering below it just because you see price falling mean means your stop is either really big (not acceptable) or your stop is in the middle of nowhere and can easily be wiped out. however, the second arrow provides more confirmation. Anyways for me personally, I want in at the first one.

[Tams 20]

you have to ask yourself:

in the greater scheme of things... does it matter?

[nkhoi 10]

Have you try get back with 2 contracts at the original entry (after you get hit with a stop run) and reduce your target by a half?

[jonbig04 10]

you have to ask yourself:

in the greater scheme of things... does it matter?

 

Well I would like to think so lol. I'm trying to fine tune my entries, so its part of that process.

[jonbig04 10]

Have you try get back with 2 contracts at the original entry (after you get hit with a stop run) and reduce your target by a half?

 

No I haven't tried that exactly, but I have tried re-entering when I think a stop run has occured. Its helped. As far as reducing targets, I wouldn't dream of it. There are consistent 10-13 point ES moves to play with.

[jonbig04 10]

OK I am moving my stop to BE after +2ES. I hope you all are happy at this weakness lol. It's less profitable, but in interest of a smoother curve (while in cash), its worth it.

[AgeKay 10]

Grr, one thing that keeps annoying me is whether I'm trying to nail the price or the time. I would like to get it at the top with the short, not wait for it to start falling and get fill in some random spot. If you wait for 3 bar or something don't you end up in the middle of nowhere with bad fill?

 

[...]

 

Anyways for me personally, I want in at the first one.

 

It is possible, but it's not possible looking at a 1-min bar chart with simple volume below it.

[Head2k 10]

OK I am moving my stop to BE after +2ES. I hope you all are happy at this weakness lol. It's less profitable, but in interest of a smoother curve (while in cash), its worth it.

I believe that this alone is not the way to go, either.

You claim that you are trading PA, but it seems that your PA reading is reduced almost only to finding PA based S/R. That's definitelly not all what can be read in PA. You could focus on reading traders' behavior once they approach or reach your level. And that doesn't always necessarily mean waiting for worse price. Sometimes it does, and sometimes you can miss the trade altogether. But in a lot of cases you can have both low price risk and low information risk. But then you must define what you need to see to confirm that price is probably really turning, and how to find an entry after this confirmation so your stop can be tight while still placed in the correct place. Maybe that's a whole new area you could explore.

[jonbig04 10]

I believe that this alone is not the way to go, either.

You claim that you are trading PA, but it seems that your PA reading is reduced almost only to finding PA based S/R. That's definitelly not all what can be read in PA. You could focus on reading traders' behavior once they approach or reach your level. And that doesn't always necessarily mean waiting for worse price. Sometimes it does, and sometimes you can miss the trade altogether. But in a lot of cases you can have both low price risk and low information risk. But then you must define what you need to see to confirm that price is probably really turning, and how to find an entry after this confirmation so your stop can be tight while still placed in the correct place. Maybe that's a whole new area you could explore.

 

 

Well said, that's what I'm planning on doing today. I still doubt I'm going to be waiting for all that much confirmation, but I'm being shown some new strategies that hopefully will help me not be at the the mercy of luck so much.

[jonbig04 10]

I know, I've been journal slack. I've had to take care of a few things in the last few days and missed a bit of trading. Luckily it was only a few hours worth and the system is so easy (limit at levels) that its easy to test the data when the level are already in there.

 

Net for the month is +8.75ES, and I was lucky to get that. I thought things were going to get ugly until yesterday morning when we had a reversal right off of that 886.25 level I've been bitching about ( see 5/22 chart). Funny how when I think a level sucks it ends up coming through. Anyways, obviously I'm short of the 20-30 goal and we all know why.

 

All of you have been right all along, despite my wishful thinking. While I don't enter in random place, my stops are too small and the entry itself on the 5-sec isn't PA based. It's more luck of the draw. That's why I missed so many good trades by ticks, I was relying on luck. I'm happy with the zones of S/R that I've been identifying for the most part, though I hope to get better and better at it. Really I should be happy, what if I had that level 2 ticks lower? My net would have improved by +18 and it would have taken me longer to realize the crappyness of my entries. :crap:

 

A TL friend of mine has been kind enough to help me with my entries. Using his suggestions I've managed to create a set of rules that works much better. My stop will now be PA based from 1-2 points. I will waiting and letting the market stop me in. This isn't a magic fix, but it does look like it will perform much better than my crappy entries of this month. In using this technique, I manage to nail 2 of those 5 trades that I missed while only costing me a few points. The exact net difference for this month is +16 which would have put me where I need to be. However I'm not putting much faith in that number, and will rely on next months number to really tell the story. Thanks a million to all those who help me on a continuous basis.

 

Now, I go drink.

 

Tomorrow, more charts haha.

[jonbig04 10]

What the hell happened at Friday's close? I just wish it happened during RTH as there was a bounce off of my R level from a few weeks ago.

 

I see that my journal got 1 rating, for 1 star lol. Ouch, that cuts me deep.

 

Anyways I'm working on figuring out these new entries software-wise. I have the chase function figured out, now I just have to figure out the stop limit stuff. I actually had to go out and buy a new mouse as my apple mouse didn't have a clickable-scroll wheel lol.

[jonbig04 10]

notes in chart..............

[jonbig04 10]

I will probably go live soon. As soon as I get used to the new entry technique. I think SIM has played its part. Worst case scenario now is that I don't reach my goal...I doubt I'm going to melt down or anything. I'll give it 2 weeks from today.

[jonbig04 10]

Finished with +0.25.

 

I loved my stop to BE to early and didn't allow the DB to form. Looks like it cost me 3ES or so. My target was 950 and we never got there, so at least it didn't cost me 10ES lol.

 

It's nice to see a level from 6 months ago hold so well. It's been S for a while, but price makes little progress above it. I keep expecting to wake up and find that we have broken down below it and are heading to 926, but it hasn't happened.

[jonbig04 10]

took a stop today for -1.5 too lazy to post the chart, unless someone wants it. had a little s/r trouble.

[MidKnight 12]

Man...that is lazy! :shocked:

[jonbig04 10]

lmao, yea yea :sleep:

[jonbig04 10]

I had one of (if not THE) worst week ever last week, finishing at -7. Yech! I have narrowed down what I think were the main factors in my shittyness:

 

Crappy S/R. We were in new territory and the only level I had was 940, which did flip a few times and hold (giving me a false sense of security haha). However I should have recognized on 6/3 that the level was no longer valid when we reversed 7 points above it. Instead I stubbornly decided to keep playing that level when the new level continued to be impressive. I was slightly off on my other level of 927, it wouldn't have made a difference but the level should have been 923 (which I only could have known after the fact). I also have a new level in between that I didn't have until now. Anyways the crappyness came from trying to play 940 when it was so obviously INSIDE the range and not the extreme. stupid stupid, that's OK though. The problem is that I have to be careful when adjusting s/r, because even the best levels don't work all the time, and its a lack of discipline to go adjusting too often, but this week I really should have taken a step back before things got this way. Lesson learned though.

 

I think now its going to be a matter of picking good S/R (and making necessary adjustments), and making better entries. I have no magic numbers or silver bullets to help me. Just more screen time. I need to be able to recognize patterns on the 5 sec more quickly, and to realize when the market is telling me that I'm wrong. There's no short cuts. Anyways I'm not too bummed, one good trade will more than take care of all the losses (which is a pysche benefit of large r/r )

 

New levels are 947, 933.25, 923

[jonbig04 10]

haha dicked by 2 ticks again, nothing I could have done better though. -1 on the day, but I did everything I was supposed to.

[jonbig04 10]

+5 or 0 lol hmmmmmmmmmmm

[MidKnight 12]

Hi john,

 

I cannot understand that happening live, but can understand that happening in sim if your broker feed is using snapshot data then it can miss the extreme ticks and in situations like this, not get a fill in the simulator. If it was live, I can't see any way you would not have gotten filled if your limit order was in there and accepted by the exchange before it traded 2 ticks above.

 

My best,

MK

[AgeKay 10]

Agree with MidKnight. You would have definitely gotten filled if you traded live. The reason you did not get filled on the Ninja Trader Sim is because their simulator is total crap. Their magic fill algorithm makes no sense (among other things). It seems the developers of Ninja Trader do not understand how the exchanges match orders, which is actually pretty simple.

[jonbig04 10]

Frustrating 2 days...or 2 weeks. Not going to write much right now because if I do it will just be me bitching,

 

Anyways I want to add some new setups to the plan. I'm going to keep doing what I'm doing, but I'm also going to see if I can start entering on the pullbacks, instead of just the beginning at end of the trend. If I miss the trade then ideally I can wait and enter on a pullback. If i get stopped and price bursts through R or S then that tells me that trend is strong and I can enter on a pullback. Of course, its not that easy. this is a departure for me, usually I test and test something before i try it. I'm not going to do that because backtests mean dick anyway. Here's what I'm going to try: wait for indicator of trend strength (above), wait for pull back on 1 min chart with low vol (that's key), when I'm satisfied that it is retracing, move to 5 sec and chase it with a tight stop. We'll see if it works. Like I said, I'm still going to be doing the exact same thing, just adding some new stuff.

[jonbig04 10]

So I've been doing some thinking and I've come to the conclusion that my trading just isn't good enough. Sometimes it is, sometimes its not; and that's not enough. I need more consistency. Last week wasn't horrible, but it sure wasn't great. What I'm doing now is playing the odds (which I think is what trading is about), but the odds are too sporadic with just these rules. With my high reward and the slight edge that the S/R levels give me, I'm sure I can stay profitable on a monthly basis or at least very close. That's not good enough. I'm in the red right now for this month but that could easily change with one trade, and dramatically change with 2. I don't want my trading to be like this when I know I can be better and have more control over my net. I think its time to take things to the next level.

 

To me selling R and buying S is all we need to do, and its what I'm going to try to keep doing. I've been using the 30k vol chart for s/r and the 5 sec chart for entries. What I really need is higher accuracy without higher risk. How could I do that? Well the answer has been in the back of my mind for the last few months. And its amazing I've came this far without utilizing them. Its simply, price action patterns. Duh, right? I don't think anyone here will deny the effectiveness of the patterns. The hard part is becoming fluent in them. I really do feel, and have felt for the past few months, that I'm almost there. I'm almost a good trader, just not quite yet. Something has been eluding me and stopping me from really doing well. Perhaps I'm kidding myself, but I think this is it. I think becoming fluent in patterns and using them as further confirmations of my trades will push me to the next level.

 

The idea is do keep doing what I'm doing, except instead of simply buying potential R and catching a falling knife all the time, I look to the 10k chart for reversal confirmation then the 5 sec for entry. Price rarely reverses without giving clues. I'm going to attempt to identify and profit off of those clues. Along with that I'm also going to try to play any reversal formations and the failure of reversal formations on the 30k chart itself, which are rare. Another area this helps is the issue of multiple S/R levels. 926 is a good example, it was a valid level, but the price made a DB below it at 923 so I scrubbed it at changed the level it 923, then we get all these great reactions at 926. This happens all the time and it was hard for me entering without confirmation because I could play them all. Using confirmation I can have more levels and hopefully catch more moves without fear of being whipsawed all the time.

 

The formations I'm dealing with now are double tops and double bottoms. From what I've seen, price usually reverses via one of these. The variations I will be trying to play are: standard dt/db with neckline break as confirmation, dragons and inverse dragons (trendline confirmation), and 2b/2t's. The rules I'm using regarding pattern definition come straight from Suri Dudella who I think actually surfs these forums.

 

I don't see this as changing what I'm doing, but adding to it...if that makes sense. I'm not going to sit here and pretend (as I have before) that this idea is going to make me a better trader over night. But I do think its a step in the right direction and an intro to a whole new part of PA that will only improve my trading.

[atto 20]

Keep in mind that the more confirmation you have, the higher your price risk will be. If you've read The Nature of Risk by Justin Mamis (link), you know all about this. One of the greatest insights of my past year's trading is the purpose of stops (and thus, the purpose of risk). As I've told you before, if you trade on support/resistance, your stop's location should not be dependent on your entry. Wyckoff's 1930-1931 analysis sheds light on this.

 

If you want to use price patterns (and there's nothing wrong with that), know that if you intend to hold to this tenant, your risk will generally be greater. If you enter on the neckline break, you have to decide: do you put your stops at the low, or elsewhere?

 

I do agree that your previous trades have been often stabbing in the dark (with little local confirmation of a reversal). I'm sure you have a list of several patterns that you're working on, but remember this: a price pattern's value lies in what it represents, not because price happened to fit some criteria. For example, Hinges represent a condition between the suppliers and demanders. When one side takes charge and breaks the "pattern", a directional move usually follows.

 

I applaud your diligence and dedication so far in your adventure.