Jonbig04's Log

[jonbig04 10]

lmao! Glad I didn't hold it swing. Gotta love following the rules.

[jonbig04 10]

NO trades today, was looking to buy a pullback, but it took off. Also wanted to short 919, but we never got there.

[jonbig04 10]

Took a stop today for -1.25. Saw the small move of 2 or so points, obviously I wanted more. Just goes to show that the level was correct, but price had other ideas. which is ok because if it was going to take of higher, it would ave done so at my level...or a good chance at least.

[jonbig04 10]

oopsssssssssssssssssss

[jonbig04 10]

Trying to do a stop run study. Too often do vol spikes occur just before a large move. As atto pointed out, there's no way to tell if that's a stop run or a break out. Or is there? I'm trying to see if I can distinguish them with any profitability. As with any system, its difficult to define specifically what you are looking for because if you wait for all criterion to be met, your fill is shit. With a 1 point stop, i can't afford crappy fill. Worked on this all last night with moderate success. I'm going to play around with it for the rest of the day. Im trying to focus on what price is doing, what a stop run IS and what it means in terms of supply and demand-how can I use that info to find them and get the killer entries that result? hmm.

[jonbig04 10]

I think I'm on to something with this stop-run study. Im sick of charts right now, will likely continue the study tomorrow between trades. It's helpful because its looking like the stop run strategy works decently on months when my s/r picking is great (and is my net), but does very well when my s/r picking my be a little off, making up the slack. Anyways I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I think its a sound concept. I know I can get killer trades with a 1 point stop using the 5 sec and stop run hunting may be one way to do it.

 

 

As far as trading tomorrow goes...my TL has never been in danger and was bounced off of on 5/7 at 15:34 at 898. I have a major area at 940. May try to get a long in in the AM if I can, other wise I must wait. Does appear to be some R up here in the 925s, but my guess it that it will break to the upside, we'll see.

[jonbig04 10]

finished my stop study, it works pretty well. Just another way of re-entering so no big changes there. NO trades today, this is all no mans land to me-which sucks.

 

I'm going to study my targets. I tested everything out with static targets, but we all know they suck. my average win is 9ES, but i know with this time frame I can aim for much, much more.

[jonbig04 10]

good day, +10es

 

missed lod by 2 ticks

[jonbig04 10]

notes are in the chart -2.5

[jonbig04 10]

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[jonbig04 10]

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[jonbig04 10]

Looking back at the week, I was able to catch the LOD once and I netted 10 from that. The next day my short was stopped 2 ticks below the HOD, the day after my short was stopped 1 point below the HOD, and today my short was stopped 2 ticks below the HOD. The purpose of this isn't to brag or rant, but rather recognize a weakness and try to fix it. The problem is simple. I am still getting my stop run. I cannot simply enter higher, because sometimes I miss the move by missing the fill. today for example, I missed fill on a long by 2 ticks. All of these trades would have netted me 9 ES. I don't expect to catch them all, but it seems like I should have been able to capitalize more off of them. I have developed stop-run rules that makeme more profitable, but I want to be an expert. I want to be able to know with 75% certainty when I see a stop run. I HATE the idea of having my stop run and not getting back in. What am I some loser noob who has no idea whats going on? Apparently. Bah. My work is cut out for me.

[CazMoney 10]

No Reply.

 

I had a question for you, but I realised the answer, after examining you're most recent attached pictures.

Edited May 18, 2009 by CazMoney
Realised the answer to my initial question.

[jonbig04 10]

haha, tell me about it. No, i think you're misunderstanding. What I mean is a few times I was short, then got stopped out just under the HOD. Meaning after stopping out my short by a few ticks, the market went down for the rest of the day. click the pics to see what i mean.

[CazMoney 10]

Yeah sorry, I realsied that after I posted my question. So there's no confusion, my initial question was:

 

Why are you putting your stops "Below" the HOD. "

 

I then examined your posts and realised you were getting stopped prior to the HOD being made.

[jonbig04 10]

yup, just prior lol. I am working on this very problem now though. Bastards won't get my stops without a fight!

[jonbig04 10]

notes in charttttttttttttttttttttttt

[jonbig04 10]

notes in chartttttttttttttttttttttttttt

[Tams 20]

you have to decide whether you are a microtrader or macrotrader...

[jonbig04 10]

Not sure I follow you..

[Tams 20]

microtrader takes tiny bit out of the market

macrotrader takes bite out of the market

 

 

don't use macro analysis to do micro trades,

and vis versa

[jonbig04 10]

Hmm I see your point, but my targets are 9-12 ES usually, thats why I use a larger time frame.

[Tams 20]

good for you

keep up the good work!

[jonbig04 10]

Thanks, I really fudged that R point today, but thats ok. I don't maintain 9x risk for nothin lol. Still working on the stop run analysis. yech.

[jonbig04 10]

caution, the following attachment contains a long, pointless rant.