Jonbig04's Log

[jonbig04 10]

I'm back! Everything looks to be up and running. Obviously I have lots of catching up to do. I will spend tomorrow and the weekend tying up loose ends with my rules, then be back 200% on monday morning. I will keep the journal updated with changes, or I should say additions to the rules.

[brownsfan019 17]

Good idea taking Fri to settle in. No need to push it on a Fri.

 

You should stop by this thread JB if you want to join the fun!

[jonbig04 10]

I would have liked to have started trading again today, but the back-testing is taking far longer than I thought. I've been doing it all weekend and today and I'm still not done. It's worth doing right, I think, so I will take the time to do a full 3 months. The only way to really do it is to scroll chart by chart. Bah. Maybe I can have it all done tomorrow. I will save the more detailed explanations of what I'm adding for when everything is done. I did watch the market for an hour or so today, and managed to get a short in on ES. Not part of a plan or anything, just a for fun experiment I guess. Anyways, I'm holding it overnight it was at +13ES last time I checked.

[jonbig04 10]

obviously, that ES short was stopped haha. I'm almost done with my backtesting. I hope to be trading soon.

[jonbig04 10]

Making some progress with the testing. Gah, I don't think I've ever put so many consecutive hours on on testing anything as I have this past week or so. I thought I would attach a SS of that ES swing that was stopped.

[jonbig04 10]

So I have about 600 trades backtested and broken down. Whew. I hope I never have to do this again. Everything is profitable, which I already knew, but I added some new aspects to my ES trading as well as my globex rules and I wanted to test it out. The biggest difference is that I'm taking so many more trades than before. Anyways I'm testing some more aspects (moving stop to BE etc) before starting. Once I start there will be no adding or tweaking, because everything will be so thoroughly tested. I feel some kind of withdrawn author or something, spending countless hours on this system. There will also be a different attitude when I do start. I will SIM for a while, and if everything works out I will go live. Trading isn't complicated. Sometimes I feel like people (especially here on TL) over complicate it. It's a journey and a task for sure, and we have to fill our glass with drops not splashes, BUT I'm not doing this to make a consistent $60k a year. Of course I would like to be at that point and I will be happy when I am, but the fact is that given time, there are millions to be made everyday. So lets stop limiting ourselves by talking about how HARD trading is, and how much work is required etc etc. I'm going to do the work and make the money. I'm through putting trading up on some kind of pedestal. It's zero-sum, and its them or me. It's going to be me.

 

Back to testing. Gosh I can't wait until I'm finished.

[jonbig04 10]

Looks like I'm good to go for tomorrow. Everything is tested out as much as possible. The accuracy is abysmal- around 20%, but who cares about that. I'm shooting for monthly goals of around 60-80NQ.

 

I will start SIM for a while and if everything goes well, move into cash. The goal right now is to follow the system to a T and replicate the test results of 60-80NQ a month. To me this is the foundation of a trading plan. It's defined and tested and I know what to expect. As I become confident that I can follow the plan in all conditions I can try to optimize more by adjusting to current market conditions, but that's later on. there won't be any changes or adds to the rules either. I'm finished doing that. I'll be trading NQ and ES. This plan isn't any different than what I've been doing, its just more of it. I added some rules for trading ES in the afternoon as well as globex rules. I still don't trade lunch hours. Stops and targets are static (NQ 2.5 stop and 20-25 point targets, ES 1 point stop and 8-10 point targets). Is this ideal? No. But I know how much it yields and it's enough for me (see goal) and, like I said, I will worry about optimizing later on. The goal now is just to follow the rules. I will be trading much more, around 3 trades a day on average, which is much more than the .75 trades per day of before. I will drop into chat every now and then. I do think there is a lot of crystal ball stuff going on in there sometimes...people trying to make the best "call" etc. I may or may not update the journal every day. A day just doesn't mean much to me. A week does and a month definitely does. Anyways, thanks for following along. Good trading!

 

Oh, if anyone wants any charts in the future, or from any of the past days in my journal for that matter- just drop me a line.

[diablo272 10]

Best of luck, though it doesn't look like you'll need it.

[JBWTrader 10]

I love the way you approach your trading Jon. Seriously its out there , honest and the level of committment is great to read.

Thanks for all that

 

All the Best

John

[jonbig04 10]

Thanks guys. Good trading.

[jonbig04 10]

Good to be back trading. Took 2 stops, traded everything perfectly (backtested to be sure there were no missed signals).

[jonbig04 10]

Weird day. Got unlucky and lucky. My entries are being fumbled still. I attached a SS of some ES trades.

[jonbig04 10]

Some of you were asking about globex levels. Heres some G action on NQ over the past day or so. Check GH and GL.

[lewtz1520887470 10]

Weird day. Got unlucky and lucky. My entries are being fumbled still. I attached a SS of some ES trades.

 

Nice stuff. Do you work with fixed targets? If so, damn that third trade looked real close haha.

 

Gotta love getting stopped to the tick. One of the lovelier parts of the game.

[jonbig04 10]

Yea, they are fixed after I place them and are between 8-10 ES points or 20-25nq. Yea, that one trade did come close. The stopped to the tick sucked too. Grrrr.

[jonbig04 10]

Day wasn't all that profitable, but I had 2 sick entries, and thought them post-worthy.

[jonbig04 10]

Man have I been journal slack or what?

 

So despite of all my talk of not changing anything, I made some changes lol. I can't help it,-I get new ideas and have to test them out. If they are more profitable, how can I not adjust? Anyways I think I'm done adjusting. I'm going to describe what I do, just in case anyone...well...wants to know. Fundamentally I haven't changed at all. And to place credit where it's due, this is all AHG born.

 

As of right now I'm not trading NQ. I may start, but as of now it's too much of a PITA to focus on 2 instruments. I'm using 2 charts only to trade the ES 30,000vol and the ES 5 sec. That's it. Nothing in between. This is where the biggest change has taken place. I used to use quite a few more. What I found was that I was simply in over my head. I'm not an adept enough PA technician to analyze all those charts, while keeping my priorities (as far as time frames and targets go) in check. The intraday (for ES I was using 10,000 vol) was always shaking me out. On top of that, my targets are usually 8-12ES, and I find that to hit that trend with an intraday chart, you have to be exact. Usually, you have to be in right at the beginning to have a nice 10 point gain (this is all ES points, from here on out). However is you use a larger chart, it chops FAR less, and you can hit multiple 10+ point trades in the same trend. this way, you don't have to me exact. This is kind of like trading the intraday chart using 3 point targets. The 30k chart, to me, is big enough, but not too big.

 

I am marking significant areas on the 30k chart and entering at those areas only. I don't know how some of you make it work entering seemingly anywhere, to me that requires a damn big stop because its not protected by any major S or R. My targets will also be based off of the 30k. The 5 sec is just to get a more surgical entry, if I can. For example, if I see vol exhaustion just before my entry or right after I get stopped. Usually I will just place a limit one tick above the level. For some reason price has to break the level for me to get fill. I guess it's just the luck of the draw, but some bastard is getting fill there, why not me? Stops are static at 1.25. I will be fading the level (initial rejection test) and also playing the flip of the level IF it happens.

 

To me this is the essence of s/r and maybe even trading. It's how the market really speaks to us. A level that is major R will see price stop, sometimes dead in its tracks, right then. When price does breach the level many times it will re-test it. If it was R it will flip S and vice versa. Happens all the time. It happens just as much as the rejections. I'm not really sure why, but it does. I suppose it's something to do with people thinking "oh, I'll wait until it goes back down to that level that I used to hate it at"...lol or something along those lines.

 

I'm still all in-all out at this point. Eventually I'm sure I will scale for pysch reasons, but as of now its just grab-your-balls-and-wait. Unless you can scale with great efficiency (I can't) then this is the best, but maybe hardest, approach. Notice the 'unless'.

 

I don't really know how this is going to work out. It's tested out well, but I know tests mean precisely dog shit. The results, and idea real time are 20-25% accuracy with 1:9 risk/reward. It didn't test well in april though. I'm not sure why.

 

I started to trade on friday and got owned. I was still testing and only half way paying attention. Can't really do that trading. I fudged the hell out of both entries. The second one I entered the wrong level entirely, I meant to click 75.5, but accidentally entered at 74.5 (had the wrong line on my 5-sec). Would have been stopped anyway though. Despite the shitty entries and stops, its always great to see price react at your pre-determined levels. If you are wondering why I didn't enter at 10:01, I tried but missed fill. But at +6 or so, I wouldn't have exited anyway

[jonbig04 10]

Notes on the pic (as it will be from now on)

[lewtz1520887470 10]

Increasing your time frame is a great idea. I agree with you 100% that the lower time frames seem to be extremely fickle when it comes to abiding S/R.

 

Just like you, I don't understand how some people can seemingly dip in and out of the market at will. I can spot key levels and intraday levels, but understanding which levels will be the most effective has been difficult for me. I've been sticking mainly to viewing 4h and daily levels when looking for key areas and it's been working well, but leaves me with a lot of time spent being flat. It's definitely been a test of my patience, which has failed me at times, haha.

[jonbig04 10]

To me, the larger the time fare, the more significant the level. You can always trade more than one instrument if you get bored. I'm flat all the time too.

[brownsfan019 17]

. You can always trade more than one instrument

 

... if you can make it work, then I would strongly recommend it!! Currencies, bonds and oil are possible markets to trade w/ the indexes.

[jonbig04 10]

Thanks BF. Can you recommend anything similar in tick size and daily range to ES?

[diablo272 10]

Thanks BF. Can you recommend anything similar in tick size and daily range to ES?

 

You could look into the 6E, $12.5 tick size.

[brownsfan019 17]

Thanks BF. Can you recommend anything similar in tick size and daily range to ES?

 

Here's what I watch, you can see if it fits you:

 

OIL: QM, CL

CURRENCIES: 6E, 6B

BONDS: ZB

Range and value is relative to the markets you are looking at. Some days, currencies will go on a tear and make the NQ look pathetic. Other days, indexes will take off and oil will be doing nothing. But that's the entire reason why I watch multiple markets - I'm looking to get in the market(s) that are moving. Can't do that if only watching 1.

[jonbig04 10]

Thanks BF and diablo, I'll check into those.

 

Today's chart.