Jonbig04's Log

[jonbig04 10]

 

Don't you just hate when that happens?

 

Great journal, Jon. Would you have gone short the ES on the retest of today's high for a test of the prior break out level? (I hope you don;t mind me asking you here)

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks.

 

Ha, I love that trade. It's not a part of my current plan, but I can absolutely see why you would take it. I am/was looking for shorts up here though, I just had to miss today's afternoon session to finish some last minute moving stuff. However I don't think I would been able to get the short in. I really wanted it at or slightly above 47.25. My trading is kind rigid right now, not the best policy, but just until I get the hang of using the sequence entries.

[jonbig04 10]

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[jonbig04 10]

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[Dinerotrader 10]

Not to bother your thread log but I thought of you when I saw this double bottom on the 6E. Got a good piece of it on SIM so doesn't count for much. I really enjoy your thread.

 

[jonbig04 10]

Not to bother your thread log but I thought of you when I saw this double bottom on the 6E. Got a good piece of it on SIM so doesn't count for much. I really enjoy your thread.

 

 

Feel free to post anything you want in the log! I appreciate the feedback.

 

I have that exact level marked on 6E. Unfortunately I didn't have it marked before the DB happened, so I didn't get long. But I am keeping an eye out bc it might be worth a try shorting a potential breakout to the downside if that DB fails. Usually I like the patterns to be bigger, but that DB is so precise (only 1 tick separating the legs) that I can try for a BO with very small stop. Good find.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Usually I like the patterns to be bigger, but that DB is so precise (only 1 tick separating the legs) that I can try for a BO with very small stop. Good find.

 

I took it because of the exactness of the DB like you said. When price reverses at such an exact point it seems like that it is an even greater confirmation that you are going to get a better reversal but I am not sure if that is in fact true, just seems like it though.

[jonbig04 10]

I took it because of the exactness of the DB like you said. When price reverses at such an exact point it seems like that it is an even greater confirmation that you are going to get a better reversal but I am not sure if that is in fact true, just seems like it though.

 

Yea it definitely feels better when things are that clean.

[jonbig04 10]

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I also lost 3 ticks making sure ES wasn't going to keep going today. It stopped, and I cut it for -0.75ES. Figured a pic would be useless ha.

[jonbig04 10]

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[jonbig04 10]

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As you can see, a short around 1101 would have been nice. I tried, but the PA was strange to me. I couldn't get in a sppt that I liked. I missed fill a few times as price made some HH's. Then I gave up on it and oof course that was the top. No biggy though, least you can see the nice flip I was trying to catch.

 

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[jonbig04 10]

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[jonbig04 10]

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-1.5ES

[nikke 10]

[

 

-1.5ES

Hi,

Been checking out your nice journal every now and then. Trade quite similar style to you.

Level was right, u dont like wait for it to break the lows of the middle bar in the reversal to form sort of a 3BR?

Edited January 31, 2010 by nikke

[jonbig04 10]

Nikke,

 

Thanks for your reply. I discussed this entry in the another thread, you can read it here:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/reading-charts-real-time-6151.html

 

There is a detailed response from Thales regarding it too. As you can see, basically I have determined that this was a "shit happens" scenario. I had no possible entries, both equally valid and I happened to pick the one that didn't work. Anyway check out that other post for more info.

 

Regarding 3BR, it's really not my thing. I know many people who use 3BR and even 2BR with great results, however I haven't been able to.

[jonbig04 10]

So it looks like I leave with +12.75ES for the half month, which is on target with my 20ES per month goal. So that's cool. Looking forward to Feb. Will post more later, I'm too hungover to think.

[jonbig04 10]

So I'm now watching 6E, ZN, and CL for large time frame breakouts. I've said many times that if I could just trade that setup it would be absolutely killer. It just doesn't happen very often. Hopefully I'll be able to locate that setup more often with more instruments. Each instrument is different though so it takes some getting used to.

[thalestrader 14]

It just doesn't happen very often.

 

Higher frequency does not translate to higher profits, right Jon? In fact, my worst days tend to be those on which i have the most executions (unless I caught a runner and I just keep piling on). There is something to be said for playing for bigger swings while trading less often.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[jonbig04 10]

Higher frequency does not translate to higher profits, right Jon? In fact, my worst days tend to be those on which i have the most executions (unless I caught a runner and I just keep piling on). There is something to be said for playing for bigger swings while trading less often.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Yup, I'm partial to the large time frame stuff. Especially when I can get in with a small stop.

[jonbig04 10]

BE playas'

 

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[jonbig04 10]

Wanted to get long ES today around 67. However I quickly realized that I had no entry. For some reason, I still wanted to be in though. Of course "wanting to be in" or not isn't a factor when it comes to entering a trade, so I stayed out. Good thing.

 

Anyway I mentioned in the Real Time thread yesterday that I was watching for a downside breakout in crude below 76.70ish. When price broke below it, I took a sim short. It rebounded quickly though and I exited for -1 tick. Still when price did break below that area (76.50 turned out to be the real point), man did it breakout!

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

 

 

There something else interesting too. When price trended down from 80.50 it stopped at 72.44 exactly. We then saw it rally up to 78ish where it ranged before breaking out to the downside today. After falling from 78 it stopped at 72.43 exactly. My question is this, we saw what happened when S broke down today. What happens if the S at 72.44 breaks down?

 

(BTW you can disregard my little purple arrows on the chart. It was just be screwing around with market orders in sim)

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

[thalestrader 14]

Anyway I mentioned in the Real Time thread yesterday that I was watching for a downside breakout in crude below 76.70ish. When price broke below it, I took a sim short. It rebounded quickly though and I exited for -1 tick. Still when price did break below that area (76.50 turned out to be the real point), man did it breakout! ...

 

There something else interesting too. When price trended down from 80.50 it stopped at 72.44 exactly. We then saw it rally up to 78ish where it ranged before breaking out to the downside today. After falling from 78 it stopped at 72.43 exactly. My question is this, we saw what happened when S broke down today. What happens if the S at 72.44 breaks down?

 

And the 12/14 low was 72.45 ... $76.50 was a great level to sell. I wish I had sold it there myself. Crude is very close, if not at, a "sell and hold situation."

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[jonbig04 10]

And the 12/14 low was 72.45 ... $76.50 was a great level to sell. I wish I had sold it there myself. Crude is very close, if not at, a "sell and hold situation."

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

What a crazy level! haha I was gonna ask if any one could show me a larger time frame chart. Ninja keeps crashing every time I try to load one. I'm definitely going to be watching for a break below that one.

 

I was a bit early on my sim short. I got in around 76.60, close though. If we get a nice BO below 72.44 I'm gonna go all in trying to catch it. Of course, I won't risk more than a couple ticks, but they'll be real money ticks haha.

 

Thanks for the chart,

[jonbig04 10]

Got some S/R drawn up on crude. I figure it's going to reverse here (which seems likely given the importance of the 72.44 area and the fact that its making higher highs now) or the down trend is going to continue via a break below the 72.4 area.

 

Anyway my only play is the potential breakdown.

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

[nikke 10]

Here's the daily crude chart:

 

It doesnt look so bad, there's some potential S below but hard to know if they will matter.

[jonbig04 10]

There's no way to know if the S will hold or not, or really what will happen, but I'm willing to bet a whole lot that there is SOME kind of reaction when price meets 72.4 again. Heck, there's already been one:

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

 

That area won't go down without a fight.