Jonbig04's Log

[jonbig04 10]

So yesterday my long was stopped a tick above the LOD. Today, guess what: my short was stopped a tick below the HOD lol It sucks, especially when you stay up all night because price was so close to R. Unlike yesterdays stop I'm actually proud of this entry. I was patient for hours waiting for some climactic volume as I knew there was a possibility that R was higher up (even thought I didn't think it was). I figured it price bent my level it wouldn't be by more than the previous bend. So I was able to get pretty close on the short, but missed it in the end. No big deal though. I'll be moving R for monday morning.

 

 

The navy blue lines in all my charts are just alerts, nothing more.

Edited August 29, 2009 by jonbig04

[jonbig04 10]

monthly summary

 

 

Monthly net on all trades= +23.5ES

 

Accuracy (excludes BEs) 33%

 

I had to erase my database so I couldn't use ninja to find the net, rather I scrolled back from the first of the month and just wrote them down. I'm pretty sure its right, but don't shoot me if I missed one stop or something. It's really not that important.

 

I learned a lot this month. I beat my goal, which is good, and that was without taking any test 1 trades during the first week. The test one trades really are where its at. Although not as accurate as the BO trades, they are more profitable. If I had taken first test trades during the first week, well the result would be even better. A lot better. But there is no point in speculating. I have all next month to take them. I also learned this month just how different the BO trades are from the first test trades. The BO trades are simply WAY more accurate. I need to be more aggressive in taking them ( I missed 2 or 3 this month). Thats the contrast between these 2 setups. I need to be cautious with the first tests and wait for good fill. With the BO trades the higher accuracy merits a more aggressive entry (less confirmation). The BO trades simply don't happen very often and take days or even weeks to setup. They also happen usually during major news (which I am now keeping track of and monitoring).

 

I feel my trading is really improving, and not only because my net is, but I can just tell. I can't really describe it. I was pouring over charts in late June (as I always do) and something just clicked in me. I think it has something to do with what atto said to me. He said "ask yourself 'who cares' when you see something on a chart". Something about the statement really made me focus not on the arbitrary nature of a setup, but WHY its a setup and WHY it works.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm still a noob who can and will stink it up (eg today and yesterday), but somehow I feel more confident in my trading because I understand why I am doing what I'm doing. Size increases are on the way, but thats not something I am going to put in the journal. Anyways the point of all this is just that after a year of working my ass off its nice to see a damn light at the end of the tunnel, ya know?

[daedalus 10]

You have made spectacular progress since I first started tracking your progress 61 pages ago. Keep at it man!!!

 

You use very simple analysis, but very logical analysis and I think it contributes a lot ot your success. You didn't get caught up in the indicator rabbit hole and stuck with the most important things in the market.

 

Keep at it!

[jonbig04 10]

Thanks daedalus, indicators were never for me. Though I did look at the ADX for about 2 hours one day when I first started, but thats about it. I can't say that X or Y doesn't work, but what I can say is you don't NEED them, so why complicate things? I really do try to keep it simple. One day I spent an hour writing on and annotating a chart of that day's price action. I was very proud when I was done and sent it to a trader I looked up to. He didn't say my analysis was wrong, he just asked me "how can this help me make money?". Now I always ask myself that question before I write like 9 pages of analysis...of course sometimes I still do haha. thanks for the kind words.

[jonbig04 10]

Here's to a good trading week for all! Well..except for the guys on the otherside of my trades

[boru 10]

Here's to a good trading week for all! Well..except for the guys on the otherside of my trades

 

jonbig04 just wanted to say thanks for your log, i've read it over twice because it really struck a chord with me. we trade similar styles, I to came from the anek school and will always be grateful for so many helpful people in the trading community. wish you well boru

[jonbig04 10]

jonbig04 just wanted to say thanks for your log, i've read it over twice because it really struck a chord with me. we trade similar styles, I to came from the anek school and will always be grateful for so many helpful people in the trading community. wish you well boru

 

Thanks. It means a lot that maybe, just maybe, this log will make someone's trading journey just a little bit easier. :beer:

 

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]

This is kind of annoying, but I guess mechanical malfunctions are a part of trading. This is the only time this has happened to me in the past year so I guess I can't be too upset...but still. Oh, I didn't play the break down because last nights action had me unsure of where S was. Although we once again witnessed the power of the DT breakout.

 

[jonbig04 10]

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=13219&stc=1&d=1252042057

[jonbig04 10]

I'm working with ninja to get this problem fixed so I don't keep wasting money by re-entering.

 

[HAL9000 10]

Hi Jonbig,

 

while I don't know about your Ninja problem (BTW, is it sim or real?),

and don't know about your charts,

I have just loaded the ones, I would load up for the ES currently,

and taken the one that would have fitted to yours, based on the resolution.

 

Its just for comparison, and FWIW.

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

 

 

[jonbig04 10]

Sorry, my data didn't update for some reason, thanks for pointing that out! still working on the other ninja problem, and obviously I didn't re-enter the short. I was out for -0.5 ES.

[jonbig04 10]

 

Some possible price paths...I wish... lol :rofl:

 

[jonbig04 10]

lol today was so stupid. No trades, same game plan for tomorrow.

 

Come on market lets MOVE!

[jonbig04 10]

Feelin' some adversity this month. Gotta step it up!

 

[jonbig04 10]

No levels, no trades.

 

As I was writing that ES spiked up to 1070. DAMN!

 

Wish this thing would PB so I could trade

[jonbig04 10]

No levels, no trades.

 

 

Wish this thing would PB so I could trade

Edited September 17, 2009 by jonbig04

[jonbig04 10]

Been journal slack. Market has been in new territory for me so I decided to give some time to develop some PA I could go off of.

 

[jonbig04 10]

Sorry for not updating this journal. I really have no excuse. I didn't get to trade for the first few weeks of september, so I guess I just got into the habit of not updating. I've also been working on something I wanted to get right before I shared it. Anyways I will try to get it back on track. things are progressing much the same. Made a few noob trades, few BE's, and a few large wins, same ole stuff. EXCEPT:

 

For anyone following along in the journal you know that me trying to make my "test 1 " trades more effective has been a common refrain. For me, a test one is just a first test of a level in that day or a few days. So I guess it's not a first test at all, but usually its been a while since price has tested it or price has broken out above it and I'm playing the flip of it. For example, say price has found R 3 times at 1,000, then break above it with force to, say, 1010. I then wait for a potential retrace back down to 1000 before buying it. The funny thing about test one trades is that you are almost always counter trend in relation to the trend of that day. It's somewhat counter intuitive in that way.

 

Anyways the hardest part about these trades is the damn entries. I was always getting stopped to the tick, or missing fill by a few ticks, or getting stopped out BE. I was stuck in the age old price risk vs information risk dilemma and could see no way out. I would like to point out that even with those problems, if one simply holds onto their winners, test 1 plays are easily profitable over time. So here's what I've been doing. Thalestrader helped me out with this too. I couldn't simply wait for more confirmation because then I just get crappy fill and I'll get stopped even when the trade works. I also couldn't just enter more aggressively because then it would be falling knife city. There is/was no silver bullet. I just have to use the PA around the time of entry to gain an edge over the price risk/ info risk dilemma. So, once again thanks to thales, here's what I've began doing:

 

(This is all on a 5 sec chart so the HH's or LL's are micro.) I wait for price to get near my level (FWIW I have alerts set up a few points away. Until then I'm usually not paying that much attention) then I wait for a nice volume spike. This activity lets me know that something important may be about to happen. Very often I find that price, before heading the other way, reaches its highest or lowest point on a volume spike. Many times there are a few spikes though. Once that happens, I wait. Assume I'm looking for a short. I have found that many times price doesn't just get rejected and peace out the other way immediately, rather it stalls for a few minutes. I wait to see if price is going to retake the high made by that spike. If it does, thats OK, but I'm more suspicious now. As of now I'm willing to let it happen once, but if price makes 2 higher highs I just let it go and stay away. But ideally price just consolidates below that spike for 5-20 min. I then note the micro range that has been created by this consolidation and place a sell limit below it, with my stop a stock above the high created by the spike. Price dicks around for a little while, then begins it's decent, stopping me in with a protected stop. Or it jets off the other way and I avoid the stop.

 

My stop is protected because I've seen more information to show me where R is (maybe even to the tick) and that its for real so less falling knives, but price also has to break out of the consolidation range in my direction for me to get fill. So ideally I'm getting the best of both worlds.

 

Of course this strat isn't perfect. I'll still get stopped to the tick. I'll still buy falling knives, but it's made my entries less arbitrary and more dynamic and PA based. I sill have kinks to work out, like the size of the range and the size of my stop. But I believe I have a good starting point and should be able to nail some more of those test 1 trades. I've only been using this for a week. I've used it on 2 trades. One I took a stop, but it allowed me to get a much better entry and if the market had kept going my way it would have worked, when if I had been using my old strat I would have been stopped out immediately. The next time I used it I was able to catch a monster that I wouldn't have otherwise been able to catch. So far so good. But only time will tell if I can make this work more effectively. It's a start!

[ochie 10]

I sill have kinks to work out, like the size of the range and the size of my stop.

 

Hi Jonbig04,

 

This may be something to monitor for a while and see if it can help when faced with a larger developing range. As it is developing note if there is a point where price starts to "favor" a half of that range that supports your trade, essentially creating a midpoint and a HL or LH within the range. This is not to change what you have been working on which sounds great, but something you may spot when your risk may be creeping up.

[brownsfan019 17]

I then note the micro range that has been created by this consolidation and place a sell limit below it, with my stop a stock above the high created by the spike.

 

 

I believe you meant sell stop. If you put a sell limit below current price, you will get filled right away. I'm sure just a typo, but for any noob's reading that, it's important to know the difference.

[jonbig04 10]

oops! Thanks BF haha, Yes I meant "sell stop".

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]

oops, I cut off the end of that last sentence: "...the major pattern breakouts I still enter at market"