Jonbig04's Log

[NeoTrader 10]

Thanks, I appreciate it.

 

I'm sure it's not going to be obvious at EVERY major level, but I'm betting that it will give you a serious leg up.

 

I personally feel that knowing what the underlying issues are doing is just too useful to ignore.

[atto 20]

Sure. I'll chart them up tomorrow.

 

The difficult part is whether TD happens at ALL major levels or not.

It doesn't always, but that shouldn't matter. Your job is to make money. If you find that TICK keeps you on the right side of the market, while causing you to miss out on a few trades, I'd say it's still great to use.

 

Spend some time watching the TICK so you get a feel for it. You might also find different setups for when the TICK doesn't diverge at S/R (a breakout, possibly?).

[jonbig04 10]

Yea exactly. I'm strapped for time for the next few days, but I will post my findings on here.

[NeoTrader 10]

Just don't let it consume time better used testing your 7 day trial.

[jonbig04 10]

I know its early, but I have to move tomorrow and have a lot to do today. I have no more trades anyway so I thought I would get this done. +12.5 yay!

 

 

 

[wjrusnak 10]

Jon,

 

Even though I and basically about everyone in chat disagreed with your exit strategy (letting +10.5 risking break-even), I want to pay you some respect for that. You did this, not because you're some crazy ******* that was betting high, but because in your research and testing, you found that you made more by letting price hit your target. For that I say Kudos! Had it gone break-even, you know I would have been the first to say, "Why the hell didn't you set a stop at the last swing!?!" In any case, good trading.

 

-- Bill

[jonbig04 10]

haha yea everyone hates all in/all out. The biggest point I have to make is t hat for better or worse, today all in/out was my plan. To change it on the fly would have been a lack of discipline. Even if God himself is telling me the sucker is gonna drop, 12ES is a drop in the bucket when compared to maintaining consistent discipline.

 

About the actual strategy, I really wasn't sweating it that much. It was a little weird because I had no R levels up here, but that also means that...well there are no R levels up here haha. And as I mentioned, the resistance we broke out of wasn't run of the mill R. It was major R on the DAILY charts. 12.5ES is really not much compared to what this sucker may do in the coming days ahead. Lastly, my biggest reason for all in/out is because its simple. Is it psychologically difficult? Sure. But its the most profitable. Why? Because I'm a noob. I can barely manage to get one entry and exit right, let alone multiple exits or entries. When I am experienced and can make better decisions about entering and exiting, then I'm sure I will scale a few off here and there. Ideally though I would like to scale off 3/4th and leave the rest on over night at BE. That would be fun. One day.

 

Atto has been kind enough to code a strategy that ets me overlay TICK data onto my 5 sec chart. I will be playing with this a lot to see if I can get it to help with my currently non-existent first test trading. I'm driving cross country and will miss tomorrows trading.

[MidKnight 12]

John I have to interject briefly. Many many traders from mentors (Denise Shull comes to mind), pros, and rookies like myself find it it much easier to do the multiple entry/exit thing. By not doing it this way, the trader is asking for perfection on every action rather than averaging the actions out for an average result. Keep your mind open, there is a reason so many do it - it's easier.

 

My trading catapulted when I was doing more than 1 contract that only allowed me to be all in or all out. Have a think about it, or try some things out in playback.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[jonbig04 10]

Whew 30+ hour drive is over. I am beyond tired. Anyways the market is rallying still and so far I have no levels here. I will look for some tomorrow on some larger time frames.

 

As for scaling, the only thing I have against it is that I think its misused. I think many people don't scale for PA based reasons, but psychological ones. Other than that I'm sure many people have great success with it. But for me, right now with 1 car, I will let it run. Also, 12.5ES is nothing compared to what a BO at 955 means for ES IMO.

 

I have a lot to do, but I will be working with TICK data a lot this week and will decide if I want to pay the $60 a month for it. If it can help with my first test trades it will be well, well worth it. To me, first test trades are where the real profit is. If I can make this work I think I can blow this thing open. Hopefully the TICK will give me some more information when attempting those trades. It will take a lot of backtesting and forward testing to know for sure.

[jonbig04 10]

The internet here was snarled into some mess and I didn't get to trade today. By the looks of things, I didn't miss much. Anyways I'm working with the TICK data now. I'm such a computer idiot.

[jonbig04 10]

I can't find any levels around here, save 1004ish. Lame! I guess I just have to wait until some form.

 

Almost the end of the month.

[jonbig04 10]

So I tore the world apart trying to get TICK data today to analyze potentially for first test trades. I wasn't able to. Gosh I really wanted to try that too.

 

Anyways for now I'm going to stick to what I'm doing, but since I'm only play specific setups and haven't yet been able to work out a first test strategy I may as well start to follow some other instruments and see if I can find some more of those failure/confirmation BO trades on large timeframes. I was thinking maybe CL or QM, a bond future...and something else thats not at all correlated. Maybe a currency. Just until I get my first test strategy worked out.

 

It may just be the noob in me, but this just looks like chop city up here. I have no major levels and I don't see anything either.

[jonbig04 10]

Barring some insane action tomorrow, my first cash month has come to an end (working on a 6E chart so decided to get a jump on this) I've learned so much! On to what matters...

 

+16.5ES for the month

 

33% accuracy on 10 trades

 

I had planned on offering to post my equity curve, but everything was deleted when I uninstalled ninja yesterday. I didn't take very many trades anyway so I think an equity curve is kind of pointless. I don't think ROI is necessary or useful in evaluating my performance so I won't post that either.

 

All in all I am happy. Not ecstatic, but happy. This month marks the 1 year anniversary of this journal and my trading adventure. I'm still a POS noob, but I feel like I can see a faint light at the end of the tunnel, if that makes sense. Despite all the planning and preparation, I really didn't know what was going to happen this month. At the least I didn't meltdown. I was short of the +20 goal though for various reasons. My stops (or the ones that got triggered) were all at 1.5ES, with one exception. During the beginning of the month i accidentally entered with a stop of 1.25. Naturally I was stopped to the tick and missed out on 6 points :doh: Haha, what a noob move. Also I need to be more aware of the intraday 10kCVB chart. I missed 2 setups that would have worked because I was too focused on the larger TF and didn't see small patterns develop. There were a few this month (some would have worked, other wouldn't have) that I missed.

 

I was also reminded again this month (as I have been for many months now) of the potentially great trades by taking first tests. I think eventually those will make up the majority of my gains, but I don't yet have a plan worked out around them. I am planning on using the TICK to see if it helps me with some structure and atto was kind enough to code an overlay that will work great for me. Due to some technical difficulties though I haven't been able to examine it. Hopefully I'll have that fixed soon. I'm very excited to get started working on that.

 

For now, since I'm taking only 2 different setups, I've decided to start watching for them on other instruments too (at least until I get a first test strategy worked out). I'm in the process of examining the 6E which looks like fun. Hopefully I can start identifying setups on it soon. I will continue to attempt to anticipate my trades in foresight (the night before) as I think that helps me remember what it is I'm looking for.

 

I will post some charts later on. I appreciate all the help and advice everyone has been offering. Some of you have gone out of your way to help me and I want to make it clear that it is very appreciated :beer:

 

Also, the one absolute advantage NQ has over ES is that +41.25 NQ points sounds so much cooler than +16.5 ES points:(

[jonbig04 10]

 

 

[jonbig04 10]

So my next level on ES is 1008. It's from november 5th. I just hope we push to it tomorrow so I can get some trades in.

 

6E is bouncing around R still. Nothing to report.

[jonbig04 10]

ES is nearing my 1008 level. Gosh I wish I could get a trade in. I really wish I could start researching first test trades too. I'll be looking for a DT there tomorrow.

 

as for 6E

 

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]

Just to answer the question that I know will come, yes I wanted to buy ES at support, but thats not a part of my setups now. It will be soon though!

 

 

[jonbig04 10]

In the past few weeks I have decided that price action is the same regardless of whether it RTH or not. With that in mind I decided to wake up early today because of the employment data and the NFP data (6E). I could care less what the news is, but since I'm watching for potential BO's on both instruments I should be around when BO causing news is announced.

 

ES has been bouncing off of 990 all night and I can't sleep knowing it could BO below it, so here I sit. Anyways the data for both is being released at 8:30 eastern so i'll be watching both and potentially trading both.

[jonbig04 10]

I should note that despite finishing today in the red, I consider it a success. I think these trades had at least a 33% chance at being successful. They just weren't this time.

 

[jonbig04 10]

what a lame BO (if you can even call it that).

 

Not much to do but wait to see if it makes it down to 990 again.

 

I've been talking about taking standard sell R, buy S trades for months now. I;m going to start tomorrow. Though I'll be doing THOSE trades sim and keep my live setups as they are. If the first test trades go well this month, I will start taking them live next month.

 

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]

Btw I was out BE bc price was moving like a train to my stop. I have since gotten back in with a short at the same area.

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]