Jonbig04's Log

[Tams 20]

one of the key to consistent profit is to know the difference between

 

a method that works,

 

and

 

accidental success.

[jonbig04 10]

Ignore feature works well.

 

No trades for me today, PA looked sloppy all day pretty much (to me). I'm still hoping to get in on a break down of the key levels of 866, or a break up at 884. Nothing much else to say.

[jonbig04 10]

Ok market, lets move!

 

 

[/img]

 

Oops by mistake I meant of course selling S or buying R..hehe

[jonbig04 10]

Come on lets get some feedback!

[jonbig04 10]

Gotta love it when the market does what you want, because it seldom does haha.

 

Personal note: since people have been asking, I suppose it matters. Yes I'm trading real money. I don't see what the big deal is, I'm not trading 300 cars. I haven't noticed any difference at all in trading real vs sim except for the box that says my account number instead of sim. All the executions, sounds etc are the same.

 

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]

What an ugly day. No trades for me. Price chopped up my 898 level, but its all I have to go by so I'll leave it there until something better shows up. My 909 level was always taken by a few points in AH trading. Grr.

 

I guess I'll just wait for a PB to 898 and see if we get some bottoming action there on the intraday chart. Or if the market stays up here and forms any kind of DT and stays far enough way from 898 to have a decent target I will take the short. I would say trend is up now, and then there's that big ass W with bottoms at 866 and a mid at 884.

[jonbig04 10]

Frustratingly, again no trades. The market is on a tear.

[jonbig04 10]

Geeze what to do. Looks like we finally reached some R albeit above my level. Im unsure what I can do up here. I'm just going to wait until tomorrow to see what globex does. This crazyness is wreaking havoc on my charts.

[jonbig04 10]

OK here goes, now I can go to F'ing sleep.

 

 

[nyctrader 10]

Good analysis, Jon. Looks like both of your scenarios panned out (although the DB was off by a few points).

[jonbig04 10]

Note: these forseight charts aren't predictions as much as they are maps of what I'm looking for. Price usually does something else. Sometimes it does what I draw and I still don't catch the trade lol.

 

[jonbig04 10]

What a weird week. I learned a few things. One is that I need to begin working on more setups. I only got to take one trade this week because neither of my setups happened save monday morning. Luckily the one trade I had netted me 10ES, so thats cool. But looking back (and this probably wont apply to anything I'm doing for a while) but the trade I took had so much confluence on so many time frames (including that of a big ass W), 10ES really is kinda a small chunk of the overall trend that developed. I now see why anek and some other people hold trades swing. I exited at 10 because that was my target, but really with confluence galore and price on a tear, I had no reason to exit with only 10. Don't get me wrong, I'm satisfied with 10, but now I see how people are able to catch massive trades. IMO that was a situation where a more experienced trader would have known that it wasn't just a breakout on a small TF, but the W confirming showed a huge breakout (like the one that happened) was possible. It's not about greed, but now I know that when there is that much confluence ESPECIALLY on large TFs, it may be time to really shoot for a big ass target (20+ES).

 

But for now I'll stick to what I'm doing. The next thing I'm going to work on is anticipating the DBs and DTs. Or test 1 trades. These are the ones I was doing exclusively last month. I know now that simply selling or buying level blindly isn't enough to net me my goal, but I also see that its possible to catch the reversal to the point. For example the DB at 866 or the DT at 884. I had those levels in advance. Look at 940, I've had that one since JANUARY! Price touched it, broke by a point and then retreated 12ES. In the last week alone price has been rejected (that means to me bounced off of it by at least 10 ES) at predetermined levels 5 times (and one in AH). 3 times the level broke by less than 0.75ES the other 2 times it broke by 1.25ES. What I do know is that even if I had played all of these, it would be very hard on my net because so many times they don't hold, or don't hold by enough, get broke etc. So how can I weed out the bad tests with the one that are more likely to succeed? That is the rub. One possible way would be to anticipate the second leg of a pattern. for examply, don't fade a level unless the last time price touched it, it was rejected. And that was only 8 hours ago or a day ago or something to show it to be a potential DT or DB. That may not work, but something along those lines.

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]

we are nearing such an important area! We may already be there, but I wonder how much inertia this rally has and if the buyers can take this area and flip it. Or maybe we reject and fall back into the 884 area again. Who knows! But it so exciting!

 

I just hope I can manage to get on the right side of a move lol.

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]

[jonbig04 10]

Sorry, I think I need to elaborate. I can pick the S/R (thats the easy part), but I need a better way to capitalize off of them.

 

Tomorrow I'll be looking to short the M top confirmation breakout (below 940), or buy the M top failure above 955.

[jonbig04 10]

Thought it would be cool to get faked and buy some Resistance today lol. Noobed. Anyways obviously the BO didn't happen and we're back in that old range. I'm still looking for the same trades: a BO to the upside or one to the downside (below 940).

 

[NeoTrader 10]

It seems like you are right on the edge of having it all fall into place. Good work. ES is tough stuff if you ask me.

[jonbig04 10]

Thanks Neo, I do feel that way.

 

the truth is that these BO confirmations and failures can be sweet, but they just don't happen that often. Which sucks.

 

As I have mentioned many times before, I am looking for a way to find some local confluence at major S/R levels. First test trading. For example, I have 955 as R from the beginning of June. When price touches it again, I short. First test. I've tried all kinds of stuff: volume, 5 sec trend lines, stop-limit orders. SOMETHING to give me a clue that "hey, this major area might hold". Too often my levels show perfect rejection (meaning price bends by less that 1.5 ES, which is my stop, and falls the other way by at least 10ES). Look at yesterday. How much would I have netted if I had sold and bought my predetermined levels of 940 and 955? The same could be said for 7/21, 7/16, 7/9 and 7/8. I can't ignore these potentially great trades. But I don't want to just enter with a limit at a level with no other confluence either. For better or worse I want something there locally as well.

 

I signed up for the 7 day free trial for IQ feed. For that I get TICK data. I've been following along with DB and finally followed through with pursuing what TICK divergence combined with major S/R could bring. I don't think TICK is some magic fix, but it could provide the extra little confluence I need to keep from buying falling knives, but still make a few great trades too.

 

I've only been at it for a few hours, but so far all the dates I mentioned earlier showed major TD (TICK divergence) at the time of would be entry. What I have to do now is quantify TD somewhat specifically, THEN see if it happens at every major level, or only the ones that are going to send price sailing the opposite direction.

 

Until I get this or something else worked out for my first test trades I will stick to exclusively playing the patterns. The patterns have helped a lot and give me further confluence on which direction price may be headed. If I can pull those patterns together along with first test trades. Well, lets just say I will be very happy.

[NeoTrader 10]

I somewhat share your frustration. I will wait for a second test, only to watch it sail away without a pull back. Or attempt on a first test only to get owned by a shakeout/fakeout. I'm seriously considering using the TICKQ (I primarily watch NQ) as well as just that little extra bit of information. Obviously with practice and know how it can be put to excellent use. I'd be interested in seeing those periods where you looked back and found the TD. DB uses a 1 tick chart to watch for these, were you using a similar TF? It would be difficult to question DB's results.

[jonbig04 10]

Sure. I'll chart them up tomorrow.

 

The difficult part is whether TD happens at ALL major levels or not.