Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

jonbig04

Jonbig04's Log

Recommended Posts

Yeah you're right. Thanks for pointing it out, I can see clearly where I messed up. I have to remember to treat those big patterns accordingly.

 

That's true about ORL and ORH, they simply find and plot the S/R that's already there. It's a shortcut.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oops, in that last chart, I meant to say that I CAN'T chalk that trade up to bad luck, not that I can. Anyways, that particular error won't happen again. Getting stopped to the tick sucks bad. There's no need to over-analyze this particular trade.I paid too much attention to the line on my chart and my stop was a tick smaller than it should have been. Simple fixes, but it did get me thinking about the flip tests in general.

 

Perhaps I should draw my own lines in real time. Maybe the automatically plotting ones aren't helping. This would also mean more entry opportunities because there could be multiple flips to play during the day, I could also have stricter criteria (see below) on those levels. This isn't something I think I can sort out before tomorrow morn, but it could potentially look something like this:

 

Remove the autoplotting ORH and ORL. Plot them myself (which 90% of the time will just be a formality), plot any other intraday S/R levels that cause a minimum reactionary bounce and play those flips as well (only, of course when all the other criteria are met-major area, reversal formation etc). I could have stricter criteria on the flips themselves regarding the bounce and breakout leading up to the flip. There's no way to know for sure whether a level has flipped or not, before it does. But the criteria I'm thinking of I like to call the "daylight" criteria.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=11923&stc=1&d=1246810797

 

 

Just an idea.

flip.png.ef18b9351781eafd75f7917776599188.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What about something like this, which happens more often: A R area is discovered, and is later tested and becomes S, and then breaks. Do you trade the flip, even though it may have been a while since test? For purposes of this exercise, pretend this chart represents an hour, one day, and one week. How do you trade it?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=11928&stc=1&d=1246813292

estst.PNG.418977620ad1612bbf25bec5d3bbcfdf.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks atto, I was hoping you would check out my chart. First I want to clarify something that may be puzzling to people following along, and will make it easier to answer your question. My rules have 3 parts. This is how I like to think of it.

 

1. The first is directionary (lol I made that word up). Since my targets are usually around 10ES this part of my rules is what, hopefully, tell me when the market may move 10 points and which direction that will be in. This consists of analyzing larger time frames (100k cvb, hourly, 30kcvb etc) and first determining trend. Then determining major levels of S/R. The big levels, the one that always have some kind of influence. Once that is done I wait for price to retrace back to a major level on a large TF. Assuming the trend is down (like now), on a smaller TF like a 1min, this will look like a rally. For me its just a PB. I wait for the rally to reach a major area of S/R, then I switch to a small TF. There I wait for a reversal formation of some type usually a DB or DT. When it confirms, then I enter. This is what I believe will tell me which way price is going to go (at least 10) and when its going to do it, but its only half the battle.

 

2. The second part is what I call entry (but you may not call it that). This is where I try to determine where I can enter on the trend that just developed that day (after the reversal). This I do by entering on the flips. As of right now the flips I can enter on are ORH, ORL, major levels, and midpoints of patterns. This part of my rules determines where my entry will be in the trend. This is the part I am thinking about modifying slightly to include more flips and perhaps more guidelines on those flips (as reversal formations don't happen all the time, when they do I shouldn't be missing an entry just because ORH didn't flip but some other level did).

 

3. Surgical entry. This is the part that ideally I find even more protection for my stop (and the part I dropped the ball on friday). Here I want to find out where exactly, to the tick, the level was flipped to and try to get a surgical an entry as possible. A lot of times I watch a specific point (to the tick) wait for the vol spike that always happens when the level breaks and see if I can figure out if its a break out or a stop run/exhaustion. Still need work on this section. Right now I'm waiting for a little confirmation before entering. I guess I will learn what works as I go.

 

 

Having my rules split up like this help me determine which part I'm screwing up. For example, friday #1 was right, #2 was right, but I screwed up #3. So when I go to look at what went wrong, I know to look at section 3 of my rules because there other sections did their jobs.

 

 

I said all that so I could answer Atto's question.

 

First thing that comes to my mind is that looks like a double top. If the two peaks were at a major level on a time frame of say 1 min and the larger TF was in a down trend, I would absolutely be shorting the next test as I would see it as a hump retest.

 

If that chart was a large TF (say hourly) then I would look for a reversal confirmation on the small TF chart (1min or 10,000cvb). If that happened then I would be looking to enter on some sort of flip after the reversal confirmation confirmed.

 

If this was on the 5 sec (assuming all other criteria have been met) then I would be waiting for a vol spike at that level and then some hesitation before entering the short.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I said I would have set BE rules a week ago. I have them now. BE at +5. I've been toying around with it and I simply can't move it at +2 or +1 without reentering. If you're going to re-enter, why get stopped in the first place? The exception would be if you had a really bad entry (in which case you could be glad to be out to get an improved price), which won't happen to me because my stop is tight enough to where a slightly bad entry gets me stopped anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this thing won't upload my attachments so here:

 

http://www.filedropper.com/78

 

http://www.filedropper.com/781

 

Problem that I'm having with the number 2 section of my rules. I'm only entering on flip tests (pbs) of areas like pivots, ORL, ORL, GLOW, GHIGH. These areas are just intraday s/r. I shouldn't be limiting myself to them. I should be able to enter on flip tests of any intraday s/r. There is nothing special about the s/r in the first 15 minutes. But what criteria do I follow? How can I test it? Hmmmmmm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just looking over that last trade. I see that you got long well after the trend started to form and it was past the midpoint of that range you have there. Price just seemed to be in the middle (I believe that is close to the POC in Market Profile terms). I know the wise tend to trade at the extremes and in this case I think you can see why.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You are getting there...the difference between hindsight analysis and RT trading is immense. It takes time....

 

With kind regards,

MK

 

 

Tell me about it! I feel like the gap is slowly closing. I'm trying to chart my trades for the next day beforehand too, which hopefully helps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just looking over that last trade. I see that you got long well after the trend started to form and it was past the midpoint of that range you have there. Price just seemed to be in the middle (I believe that is close to the POC in Market Profile terms). I know the wise tend to trade at the extremes and in this case I think you can see why.

 

 

Thats true. Selling the extreme R and buying the extreme S was all I did last month, but it wasn't good enough. It just so happens that it would have netted like 18ES today lol. Price was in the middle of that particular range. Its what I gave up to let the double bottom form. I was surpised when it didn't continue to the top of the range after making that DB. I wouldn't have been surprised if the trade didn't work due to rejection at the top, but the trend I was looking at wasn't the trend of that day, its the trend of the last 2 days. the midpoint test entry was my attempt to try to catch a ride on that trend. In looking at that larger trend you'll see that the distance my trade was from the bottom of the range is small compared to the size of the bigger trend, so in a sense I was, or would have been at an extreme area... or thats the idea anyway. Anyways, shit didn't work lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.