Whose Posts Are Worth Reading?

[TradeRunner 10]

If most traders fail or are failing, the standard figure seems to be 95%, then that leaves 5% of traders capable of helping others become successful traders. How many of the 5% would be willing to contribute their hard gained knowledge and experience for free on a public forum? I guessing not very many!

 

How can you identify the people that are worth reading? Here are some of the attributes that I think you should look for:

 

• 
  By definition their message will be different to most contributors
  

• 
  They have worked hard so they have a spoon feeding phobia
  

 

Here are some contributors that made me site up and think!

 

DbPhoenix

Peter Crowns

TheRealThing

 

 

Not a complete list by any means but my current top 3.

 

What about the other 95+% well these are also worth reading for different reasons as these are the people you need to extract money from.

[BlowFish 10]

"If most traders fail or are failing, the standard figure seems to be 95%"

 

 

That's probablly worth challenging. 95% of all statistics are made up on the spot you know Every now and then large brokerages will release figures on client churn, burnt out accounts etc. These would suggest its not quite so high. My guess is the figures probably follow the Pareto principle. Anyway that's as may be.

 

There's quite few people worth listening to, there are fewer who are really worth listening to. The dichotomy for the less experienced reader is unless they have already developed a wealth of trading knowledge and used that to established strong beliefs based on 'facts' about trading, they are ill equipped to sift out wisdom and truth from well meaning rhetoric.

 

Personally I try and judge the usefulness of the information based on it's inherent value rather than the success of the informant.

 

The final thing is of course your motivation for reading (and participating) in forums. Whilst interesting titbits come along that might have an impact on ones trading, for me its more social.

 

Anyway thanks for the links though the offsite ones don't work for me, I wonder if you need to be registered and logged on or something?

[smwinc 20]

I think a forum is a good source if you have:

 

- specific, direct, questions

- require feedback on charting software, broker, firm, etc.

- general facts about a market

- shooting the breeze

 

Unfortunately, trading forums tend to get "diluted" from new traders wanting to learn "everything" and creating threads requesting such a thing.

[TradeRunner 10]

Yes sorry I messed up the links...

Peter Crowns

TheRealThing

 

80% unsuccessful ok. I don't know what the percentage is but I think you have accepted that the majority are not successful at trading. Some of the successful minority may participate in trading forums. So my point is that most of the posts are by people who are not successful at trading. So there advice or ideas have not made them successful.

 

The dichotomy for the less experienced reader is unless they have already developed a wealth of trading knowledge and used that to established strong beliefs based on 'facts' about trading, they are ill equipped to sift out wisdom and truth from well meaning rhetoric.

 

Exactly. To recognise wisdom and truth you need trading experience and only then will you start understanding what the 'facts' are and at that point you will have no need to read them if your only motivation is learning how to become successful. Accepted you may read/contribute to forums for other reasons.

 

Personally I try and judge the usefulness of the information based on it's inherent value rather than the success of the informant.

 

Yes and you may be in a better position to do this because you have 15 years of trading experience. However this would be an inefficient method for a beginner as it is difficult to establish the value.

 

I have no idea whether these links are to people who are successful traders. Their messages strike me as being different and their underlying message is that your are going to have to do most of the work yourself.

[MC 10]

I looked at being new and getting bombarded with info (some good, some bad) as me paying my dues. If you go to an anonymous web board and ask how to invest your money, you deserve what you get and you get what you paid for. I started in the pumped penny stocks, you can guess what happened to my money on that endeavor. :o Sad thing is now when I try to help noob's and they call me a basher and shun my advice despite my warnings VERY frequently panning out.

 

After understanding that most info on the web is garbage (some intentionally, some from blind leading blind) people can react 3 different ways.

 

1) Keep funding and trying the same crap that lost their money in the first place, OVER and OVER again. Treating the market like a get rich quick scheme by gambling for the rush of a win. Many will eventually move to option 3. Very few of this type will progress to option 2 as they often have the wrong motive and expectations.

 

2) Wise up and begin to use paper trading and/or trade with limited capital to educate yourself. It's a long journey so I'm sure many that choose this option eventually move to option 3. The further I get in the more amazed at how hard WE make this game. It's our minds that cause losses and difficulty, not the market.

 

3) Quit and accept your losses moving on to the next get rich quick scheme or suicide if you're broke enough and everybody has left you. The professional traders thank you for your patronage. :doh:

 

Note: I'm not saying the refunding accounts in option 1 is bad, this game takes repeated funding and insane determination. It's the motive and approach that separate the winners and losers. If you want to get rich quick, you'll go broke even faster. My motive is to bend my mind into that which the market allows me to profit from. I'm a psych driven thinker that loves a challenge almost as much as the thoughts of profit.

[atto 20]

The search links you gave are actually search caches, so the link is dead already. Here are ones that won't die:

 

DbPhoenix

 

Peter Crowns

 

TheRealThing

 

edit: Are the last two usernames correct?

[Hlm 10]

The search links you gave are actually search caches, so the link is dead already. Here are ones that won't die:

 

DbPhoenix

 

Peter Crowns

 

TheRealThing

 

edit: Are the last two usernames correct?

The last two were search strings over at forexfactory.com

[Hlm 10]

Also, in my opinion all of jperls threads on Market Statistics are worth reading. They are some of the most organized, detailed, and informative threads I have seen on any trading forum. They are also quite unique.

 

Note: If you want to link to all threads started by a user, go to their profile, click on statistics, and copy the url for "Find all threads started by". This url should contain a user id that does not change. When clicked, it goes through the search process and then comes up with a temporary search id which you DON'T want to link to.

Edited July 19, 2008 by Hlm
Added link to threads started by Jperl.

[BlowFish 10]

I have to agree about Jerrys threads. Clear, concise, and statistically significant!

[OAC 10]

This is a free site with tons of valuable information. What we have here is a newbie who is already complaining although i will bet he or she never even read any of the posting yet. He is exactly the type who will scoop up $5000 for some vendor who promise the holy grail.

This thread is totally worthless, I say we should close it down !

[Hlm 10]

First of all I did NOT see smwinc's, TradeRunner's, or MC's response when I first posted. I would of obviously not have made a comment about the links. It appears that atto did not see them as well. Is this some kind of bug?

 

If most traders fail or are failing, the standard figure seems to be 95%, then that leaves 5% of traders capable of helping others become successful traders.

Over the years I have learned a great amount from unsuccessful traders. Many times people come up with excellent concepts or create interesting tools, but don't have the right knowledge to correctly and successfully use them. However, other individuals that are at a different level of understanding may have a use. You also have the reality that just because one individual can't trade a system, it doesn't mean someone else can't...and the other way around.

 

How many of the 5% would be willing to contribute their hard gained knowledge and experience for free on a public forum? I guessing not very many!

Most successful traders I know are not against helping people for free. The problem is that most newbies want their instant riches via the holy grail. The reality is that most newbies can be showed exactly how to trade but they still end up screwing things up in the long run. This quickly burns out a big portion of the successful traders. And obviously you are not going to find anyone posting code to their black boxes since what motivation do they have. Trading has learning stages just like a child. In order to become successful you must progress through them all. Some individuals progress faster than others, while most just give up before the finish line.

[atto 20]

First of all I did NOT see smwinc's, TradeRunner's, or MC's response when I first posted. I would of obviously not have made a comment about the links. It appears that atto did not see them as well. Is this some kind of bug?

Hm, seems like it (I didn't see the above posts at all).

 

There are absolutely people out there (the "5%" you refer to) who are willing to help for free; several of them post frequently here. It takes work, something most newbies don't want to do.

[TradeRunner 10]

This is a free site with tons of valuable information.

Agreed. I've spent alot of time on this and other sites. However, the question I've asked is also on my mind. Is that such a bad thing?

 

What we have here is a newbie who is already complaining although i will bet he or she never even read any of the posting yet. He is exactly the type who will scoop up $5000 for some vendor who promise the holy grail.

Would someone who asks this question really hand over $5000 dollars to a vendor?

 

I've been around long enough to know there is no holy grail.

 

This thread is totally worthless, I say we should close it down !

Why?

[TradeRunner 10]

Also, in my opinion all of jperls threads on Market Statistics are worth reading. They are some of the most organized, detailed, and informative threads I have seen on any trading forum. They are also quite unique.

 

Thanks Hlm, I'll check these out. My second post took a long time to appear hence the crossed posts.

[OAC 10]

Whether you want to admit or not, you are a grail seeker by the questions that you ask. Denial is a common human attribute, so don't take it too personally.

[OAC 10]

And also why are you asking us these questions here. Since 95% of us are failures(I am not saying we are not), then there is 95% chance you will get the wrong answer. Why don't you interview the Market Wizards ?

Edited July 21, 2008 by OAC

[dinarzan 10]

External link on this one, but this blog is huge and getting huger LOL

http://www.slopeofhope.com

Look for posts by Tim Knight, Moo, 2sweeties

 

Another excellent one

http://traders.retracementlevels.com/

 

Also

http://www.evilspeculator.com

 

Hope this helps!

[phreddy 10]

This is a free site with tons of valuable information. What we have here is a newbie who is already complaining although i will bet he or she never even read any of the posting yet. He is exactly the type who will scoop up $5000 for some vendor who promise the holy grail.

This thread is totally worthless, I say we should close it down !

 

A bit harsh OAC, I hadn't seen how old this thread was until I decided to answer you. Glad you didn't close it.

 

The 95% argument is specious and best ignored: nobody has the data so nobody has the answers. Pareto may well be the answer. IMHO

 

All these trading fora encourage the hunt for the 'Holy Grail' simply by being here. Hell, I'm looking for it too like a little Sir Galahad.

 

This thread has served its purpose in that it has pulled some useful references for us.

[OAC 10]

What about the other 95+% well these are also worth reading for different reasons as these are the people you need to extract money from.

 

Think about it., and think hard. Who would make a statement like that ?

My answer? A S-----.

[jonbig04 10]

I think there is a holy grail- discipline.

[xracer 10]

Yeah, discipline + good information can give you amazing results. DbPhoenix's and jperl's posts are solid, filled with useful info, and attract many top posters.

[Guest mifgjkar]

I have no idea whether these links are to people who are successful traders. Their messages strike me as being different and their underlying message is that your are going to have to do most of the work yourself.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I have no idea whether these links are to people who are successful traders. Their messages strike me as being different and their underlying message is that your are going to have to do most of the work yourself.

 

This should come as no surprise. While the truth may lie in price movement, there are many routes to that truth, some simple and straightforward, some more circuitous. But if that destination is their goal, they all get there one way or another, sooner or later.

 

As to your having to do most of the work yourself, what did you expect? If you ever encounter anyone who says they can do it for you, make sure you keep your wallet in your pants.

 

As to whether or not we're successful, that's an easy one. Do the maps we provide guide you toward the destination? If they don't, that's all you need to know, and it didn't cost you a thing except time.

[jonbig04 10]

For me, I look at traders who are successful, and just try to do what they do. I am lucky enough to be able to interact with quite a few great traders on a daily basis. It has helped me because I don't waste my time trying to learn things that they don't know...because obviously my time is better spent concentrating on things that they concentrate on. I look at what they look at. There is a lot of stuff here on TL that is very interesting, but seems a bit superfluous in the context of things you need to learn to become a good trader...I don't know, I guess I was am just looking for the shortest route possible to "mastery". I now focus on price action and discipline. That's it. I'm sure some people are successful with indicators, more power to them, but I know they aren't necessary (and can be sometimes harmful), so why bother with them? Its funny when I'm in the TL chat because sometimes people post charts in there that look like they could be on the panel of an air-traffic controller lol, don't get me wrong if that works for you then great! To me it just seems like a lot of extra effort on things that aren't really necessary. I've learned to keep it simple. Also, some of the best advice I got was from DB's book; we don't have to master PA all at once, just focus on one aspect and study that. Don't worry about everything else. I also noticed a thread here on TL where people are analyzing (and doing a very good job) charts, and the analysis seemed to take up a whole page! It is interesting and well thought out, but when I trade I have a plan. I know where my potential entries are, I know why and I know the probability of the expected outcomes. When price gets near those levels I pay very close attention, but as for everything else-I completely ignore it. I think its unnecessary to try to describe and determine a picture of supply and demand for a whole chart, because it seems overwhelming to trade the whole chart. I pick my setups and watch price there, everything else is just noise to me. Once again this is behavior I picked up from the traders I emulate and is all just my noobie 2 cents.