Identifying Weakness and Strength

[Soultrader 12]

There was a trade that really stuck to me placed by my former manager. The Nikkei has just experienced its worst decline in the last 7 years losing over 5% for the day. (August 17, 2007) While most of the traders on the prop desk had kept their shorts, he was long 200 big contracts at the close.

 

The following day the Nikkei gapped up by 490 yen.... he banked in close to $1 million at the open. I asked him why he decided to go long...his reply, "The scent of the market."

 

So what did he mean by scent? Was it intuition? Experience? Observation?

 

The same scent exists in poker. What differentiates an okay poker player from a great poker player is his intuition and the ability to smell weakness/strength and exploit/be aware of these moments.

 

So what are some of the clues that can help identify weakness/strength?

 

1. Behavioral/psych patterns

2. Betting patterns

3. Tone of speech

4. Time delay

5. Moment of silence (my favorite)

 

Behavioral/Psych Patterns

 

We all have certain behavioral patterns, some more visible than others. A nervous tick, a habit to scratch your head, crack your knuckles, look downwards, etc... Even a slight shift in the way one smokes a cigarette is a significant clue for the professional poker player.

 

High level poker comes down to observation and awareness. Studying your opponent can take some time, sometimes days or even weeks. However, on the poker table one must be quick to observe and create a strategy on who to take money from and who to avoid. Prey on the weak hand.... this is how one can make a consistent living playing poker. Avoid the strong hands or respect them. They will respect you back.

 

Most poker players are full of tells. Whether it be the way he leans back on his chair on a strong hand, leans forward and looks down on a weak hand, ponders on the flop and bets strong at the turn, etc.... these are all vital clues that can help you make that decision to call/raise/fold.

 

Humans by nature have a tendency for their eyes to look down when they feel guilty. Now amateur poker players do this all the time. They look down while trying to be silent thinking they are not giving off any hints. Some amateur players tend to tilt their heads when they are pondering on calling. These tells are all signs of weakness. Lets take one example from a hand I had last night.

 

Small tournament starting with $6,000 in chips

 

My hand: A3 off-suit

My opponents: ?

 

Preflop: My raise of $400. Opponent calls.

 

Flop: 2, 8, 6 (I raise $400)

 

As I watched him call the flop, I noticed that we was cautious as if he was putting me on a higher pocket or as if he was holding a pair of eights and did not feel too confident with his kicker.

 

Turn: 2, 8, 6, 10

 

I checked this time in order for me to grasp a better idea of his hand and to see if I could pick up any further tells on his hand. My opponent glances at me, looks at his chips, and checks. Now normally this opponent is fairly aggressive with the habit of re-raising. This to me was a signficant tell that there was a possibly I could steal this pot.

 

River: 2, 8, 6, 10, Q

 

This time knowing that he was weak handed and the 10 must of scared him, I was convinced that at best he was holding on to a 8 with a face card or 6 with a face card. I bet $1,000. My opponent thinks about it and then folds. I showed him my hand and he showed me his. K8

 

Lets take another example from a hand I had last night.

 

Same tournament.

 

My hand: 9,10

Same opponent: ?

 

Preflop: My opponent raises $400. I call. Normally this opponent is fairly quiet preflop. He is more of a hand by hand player and rarely pushes aggressively preflop. This was a small clue.

 

Flop: 2, 6, 9

 

I raised $400... small raise as I was not sure if I had the hand but wanted to pay for some information. 2 players after me folds. My opponent ponders as if he was thinking how to extract the most money then raises to $1,200.

 

This raise triggered my attention. I had thought my 9,10 was somewhat strong seeing the flop. Its rather hard for a flop with low cards to help anyone who raised preflop UNLESS he is holding to higher pockets. I sat there thinking.... this was pretty late down in the tournament and my opponent was holding an extra $1250 in chips only. Which meant that the option at this point was to 1. Put him all-in 2. Fold

 

Calling was not an option as it was obvious he was ready to move all-in on the turn. I sat there watching him. He leaned back, smoked a cig and exhaled upwards. For none smokers... heres a hint. Exhaling upwards is a sign of confidence. Go to any smoking section and watch the smokers puffing their cig. You can tell right away who is having a good day from a bad one.

 

I folded and showed him my hand. Though he did not show me his, I was 100% convinced I had made the right lay down. He seemed a little frustrated for only collecting my blinds plus $400 from me.

 

Following Next.... Betting patterns

[brownsfan019 17]

Great stuff James.

 

I am just beginning my journey into reads and picking up tells.

[firewalker 10]

  Soultrader said:

 

So what are some of the clues that can help identify weakness/strength?

 

1. Behavioral/psych patterns

2. Betting patterns

3. Tone of speech

4. Time delay

5. Moment of silence (my favorite)

 

 

I agree Soultrader, but how about online poker?

Is it more difficult to gain an edge because there aren't any clues like these? Except for time delay although in turbo games this is relative as well...

[Soultrader 12]

Betting Patterns

 

Whether online or at the tables, betting patterns leave tremendous clues about your opponents. A tight player with a sudden increase in the size of the bet gives of warning signals. While a loose player with a sudden small bet may indicate weakness. Of course the better the player, the more you sense a trap when this happens. A good poker player may strategize by betting weak on purpose in anticipation of a re-raise. A tight good player may bet strong a few times to bluff at the pot.... which is quite an effective strategy.

 

However, the longer you study and play with the opponent you will start to see certain betting patterns. Every player has their own style of play similar to trading. Player A may be a tight and conservative player with a tendency to take down pots at the turn or river. Player B might be more aggressive taking down pots at pre-flop and flop. Whatever the characteristic of the player, understanding the type of player your opponent is will give you an edge.

 

Lets start wtih a few examples. An opponent of mine (who is very good btw) has a very unique and manipulative way of playing poker. Although tight and fairly conservative, he takes advantage of weakness and pushes aggresively when the situation tells him to. However, he is not a pre-flop player. In other words, he likes to limp in with hands like AK or will raise the same amount whether he has a AQ or 10J. Which makes him a bit unpredictable in terms of betting patterns after the flop.

 

Lets go over one particular hand. 3 people in, I am dealt KJ suited. Dealer calls big blind, I call the blind, and my opponent raises $750. The dealer folds immediately and its my turn to call, raise, or fold. My opponent who has never been the pre-flop player raises $750.... a clear violation of his pre-flop betting pattern. With $6,000 chip tourneys his usual pre-flop bet is $200-$400. Now, my opponent is very manipulative and knowing his personality it would be rare for him to expose a solid hand like QQ, KK, or AA pre-flop. He loves to slow play.

 

A $750 raise triggered my interest. I tried to think of the possible set of hands he was holding:

 

1. High pockets; 10/10, JJ, QQ, KK, AA

2. solid face cards: KQ, AK, AQ, AJ

3. low pockets: 66, 77, 88, etc...

4. nothing (bluff)

 

I was left with 4 possible scenarios. However, knowing his personality and his betting style I found option #1 to be out of the question. His betting pattern in the past with high pockets was always aiming to trap at the flop. He would never risk over betting pre-flop for others to fold with high pockets. In other words, these are his money hands and would never let it go to waste. As a result, my instinct told me high pockets was out of the question.

 

Next, option #2. My opponent has a tendency to limp in with Aces and bet minimal with hands like AK, AQ, AJ, KQ. By raising $750 pre-flop this goes against his play style and will affect his strategy and play on the flop, turn, river. In other words, raising $750 on the flop exposes him as good face cards. This would make it extremely difficult for him to slow play any face cards that pop up on the flop. Hence, similar to trading... this is not his style.

 

Now, I was left with option #3 and #4. Very interesting. It made perfect sense for him to bet strong with low pockets as I know he does not like them and would much rather prefer to end the hand by stealing blinds. Now my strategy was this. If I put him on option #3 or #4, a face card at the flop would allow me to take down the pot on a re-raise. (regardless of what I was holding) It was a risky decision but I called $750 certain of my instincts and put him on low pockets.

 

Flop comes A, 10, 8. I raised $750 and put him on the test. By calling pre-flop, it automatically made him think I was holding face cards or a high pocket. He threw his pocket 3's down and folded his hand. I took it down with a King high.

 

I have found this pattern common amongst many poker players. They have a tendency to bet differently with pockets compared to face cards. Or bet over aggressively with low pockets to muscle people around. As long as you know the personality of the player, changes in betting patterns can offer tremendous clues. One can even strategize ahead of time on how to take the pot dependant on the cards that drop at the flop.

 

 

Lets take another example, this time between my opponent and another player. We shall call my opponent Player A and the other player Player B.

 

Player A raises preflop $300. Player B re-raises $500. Player A calls.

 

Ugly flop.. no face cards. It appeared as if the flop could not possibly help anyone. However, Player B raises $500. Player A (my opponent) sits there thinking. Whats interesting about this $500 flop raise by Player B is that he is never too aggressive on the flop. He loves re-raising turn and river. I am sure this information left Player A thinking. If Player B had face cards only, the flop could not have helped him. Which means the $500 flop raise was a bluff leaving Player A an opportunity to take this pot down. After further thinking, Player A calls $500.

 

Turn comes a King. Player A bets $1500. At this point I am laughing my ars off inside. I knew exactly what Player A was doing. He put Player B on either mid pockets or face cards. The fact that Player B bet fast and aggressive at the flop.... Player A must of figured out that the flop could not have helped him and decided to bet extremely strong at the turn to represent the King. I knew right away Player A was probably holding to rags (absolutely nothing).

I was laughing inside because he does this every single time his opponent re-raises pre-flop and shows weakness at the flop. (obviously he would never do this against me) Player B grips his jaw and folds. Classic poker.

 

The most effective part in recognizing betting patterns is to combine it other information such as psychology, human behavior, etc... Like in trading, the player with the most information has an edge. With poker, information must be gathered up on your own and not with the help of advanced trading tools, pit noise, market delta, etc.... It is similar to how a pit trader would trade... observing big players, reading order flow, and understanding crowd psych.