What the Heck is Going on with Forex?

[Sledge 13]

I'm not sure if anyone noticed as of late, but I'm wondering what the heck is going on with the Forex Markets?! If you look at the charts from a Daily perspective- they are all making you scratch your head.

 

You look at most currencies- and they just can't seem to find their direction. GBP/USD- Long... No wait Short.. No wait Long, No wait.. HOLD.

 

Same thing with AUD, CAD, NZD and even the crosses like GBP/CHF. So what is going on out there? Trading from a technical side, the CAD had a wild and wicked upthrust 2 days ago. The technical trader started to drool heavily and shorted the ever living tar out of it- this technical trader managed to salvage a whopping 21 pips off a DAILY bar that normally would produce a landslide of prices and by now we'd be 300 pips or better off that upthrust bar high as prices fell hard from lack of professional support.. but on that particular pair (USD/CAD) we are seeing support almost immediately...

 

So what gives ladies and gentlemen? Anyone far more seasoned than myself have a hypothesis of why it is that we could get a 400+ pip rocket launch one day on a GBP/JPY and then a stall immediately?

 

Sledge

[wasp 10]

................ Anyone far more seasoned than myself have a hypothesis of why it is that we could get a 400+ pip rocket launch one day on a GBP/JPY and then a stall immediately?

 

Sledge

 

Thats just the way the cookie crumbles.... Sometimes they move, sometimes they don't... They can't all be shooting 400 pips a day!

 

Swings and roundabouts really. There's volatile times and quiet times, just have to roll with it.........

[BigKahuna 10]

This may seem a bit confrontational, but have you ever considered there is nothing wrong with the currency markets. Perhaps it is the methodologies you are attempting.

 

These markets are no different than they have been in the past....take a look at charts going back to the 70's, 80's and 90's, aside from the price, they are not much different then today.

[cowpip 10]

Personally, I LOVE this volatility. Anyone recall what 2006 looked like?... eur/jpy or cable would be lucky to make a 60 pip DAILY range. Now, 100 to 200 pip days are closer to the norm. That's what I like.

:beer:

[wasp 10]

On another forum a couple of years ago I was having a panic attack that cable had died a death and I did some long winded extensive research, (I'll dig out the charts) to see in relation year by year regards the volatility.

 

I haven't traded cable for some time and looked a couple of weeks back to see it moving 200 either way, sometimes twice a day all week. Couldn't believe it as the last time I traded it it was in a 100 point weekly range!

 

swings and roundabouts.....

Edited June 12, 2008 by wasp

[firewalker 10]

On another forum a couple of years ago I was having a panic attack that cable had died a death and I did some long winded extensive research, (I'll dig out the charts) to see in relation year by year regards the volatility.

 

I haven't traded cable for some time and looked a couple of weeks back to see it moving 200 either way, sometimes twice a day all week. Couldn't believe it as the last time I traded it it was in a 100 point weekly range!

 

swings and roundabouts.....

 

Are those statistics you came up with yourself or is there a site someplace where you can find these things? (would be nice to have for indices for example)

[wasp 10]

Are those statistics you came up with yourself or is there a site someplace where you can find these things? (would be nice to have for indices for example)

 

Unfortunately I spent days and days, physically measuring each and every sodding week, one by one..........

[firewalker 10]

Unfortunately I spent days and days, physically measuring each and every sodding week, one by one..........

 

Respect! :yes sir:

[cowpip 10]

Very nice chart porn, Wasp!

 

I for one am thankful a measure of the uncertainty has returned. It has been bloody DULL in recent years, as you have so visually demonstrated.

[Sledge 13]

I told a fellow trader that my recent Daily perspective may be too far out for Forex in its present trading range. Seems as if the compass just got all wacked to shat!

[Sledge 13]

Anyone think this has a thing to do with the fact that most Future contracts for June are set to expire?

[ztrader 10]

So what gives ladies and gentlemen? Anyone far more seasoned than myself have a hypothesis of why it is that we could get a 400+ pip rocket launch one day on a GBP/JPY and then a stall immediately?

 

Sledge

 

....but have you ever considered there is nothing wrong with the currency markets. Perhaps it is the methodologies you are attempting.

 

 

It seems that most seasoned and newbie traders alike are hung up on going after and making those big pips everyday from a single pair then get concerned with the market when it doesn't come around to give it. That's market reality and the challenge we face with as traders.

 

You can stick [focus] to the daily on one pair or be flexible enough to work with the market and drill down to the lower timeframes to identify movement, if any. The name of the game is making consistent pips everyday. We are blessed with several currency pairs to look for these opportunities. I also have my focus pair but I am not married it. I let my D1 or H4 swing trades take the big pips as they come. I take my fun pips [money] in lower TF on pairs that will give me the setup for 10-20 or more pips. Like BigKahuna said, "perhaps it is the methodology". I called mine "scalp, cycle n trend".

 

ENJOY!

 

ztrader

[Sledge 13]

Wow, I never expected so much hostility for saying I trade longer term that apparently most of you do. Must have stepped into a scalpers hornet nest.

 

To address a few items, whatever your trading style is- long term, medium term, scalper- I'm glad it works for you, I've done it all myself and been successful at it-- Been a scalper, been a one hour trader, been a 4 hr chart follower. Needless to say getting pissy about it doesn't answer the question. The markets are not acting as normal- regardless of the line of B.S. about them being exactly the same for the last 30 50 or 90 years. If they were that predictable- we'd all be living on our own private islands someplace and not having a pissing contest here.

 

So unless an actual explaination of why the markets in forex are up one day and plummeting the next- which is not the norm btw unless it is bottoming or topping- getting into a "This douche must not know how to trade" discussion lends itself to some pretty well wasted bandwidth don't you think?

 

I expect to hear crickets from this point forward.....

[ztrader 10]

Wow, I never expected so much hostility for saying I trade longer term that apparently most of you do. Must have stepped into a scalpers hornet nest.

 

To address a few items, whatever your trading style is- long term, medium term, scalper- I'm glad it works for you, I've done it all myself and been successful at it-- Been a scalper, been a one hour trader, been a 4 hr chart follower. Needless to say getting pissy about it doesn't answer the question. The markets are not acting as normal- regardless of the line of B.S. about them being exactly the same for the last 30 50 or 90 years. If they were that predictable- we'd all be living on our own private islands someplace and not having a pissing contest here.

 

So unless an actual explaination of why the markets in forex are up one day and plummeting the next- which is not the norm btw unless it is bottoming or topping- getting into a "This douche must not know how to trade" discussion lends itself to some pretty well wasted bandwidth don't you think?

 

I expect to hear crickets from this point forward.....

 

Sledge,

 

My apology if you had taken my post as hostile; it is not intended to be nor am I entering it in a pissing contest. I was making a general comment and sharing some thoughts on how I see the market and find opportunities within. I have no explanation of why the market in forex moves the way it is. I also trade emini futures and it's about the same story there. My traders IQ is low so I make my approach to trading simple by just going with the market flow and apply market timing. I take what the market gives.

 

I don't think there is an actual nor one right answer to your question. There are lots of high caliber technical traders and market wiz here, who knows, one may come up with it.

 

Again, please accept my sincerest apology. Feel free to ask one of the moderators to delete if you so desire. I wish you the best.

 

ENJOY!

 

ztrader

[thrunner 10]

Unfortunately I spent days and days, physically measuring each and every sodding week, one by one..........

Try using the Average True Range indicator. The following is a weekly chart of GBPUSD and 14 period ATR compared with SPX.X (S&P index) from '99 to '08 using TS.

 

[BigKahuna 10]

Sledge,

 

How long have you really been trading? A year, maybe two? The price action you see is the norm. No one said you could not trade, but asked for discussion based on the implication you were having difficulties with this market.

 

This action is not new and is not unusual. It may be new to you. If you do not want others to be honest with you, don't ask them questions. You want crap answers, go back to forexfactory that you like to quote so much, they don't like honesty either and are more concerned that someone gets their feelings hurt rather than hear the truth.

 

If you can not handle this discussion without getting your feelings somehow hurt, you have much bigger problems than the current markets price action.

 

Fear and greed move markets. Fear encompasses indecision, which we see a great deal, greed encompasses compulsion, which we also see. Humans move markets by their fear and greed, period.

[Kiwi 16]

Agreed with BigKahuna.

 

Ztrader's post was not offensive or hostile - it was an attempt to offer genuine help. Relax. Go back and read it again - there is useful information in there.

 

On the markets: they go through small, large and very large cycles of change. Some of them relate to topping actions, some are just the market's delightfully quirky way of disadvantaging as many participants as possible. Perhaps the current times reflect a questioning of whether the US issues are oversold vs the economic issues becoming clearer in Europe now. Perhaps too many people have become committed to trading daily and 4h charts. Such is the joy of trading.