Timing Method

[waveslider 10]

are the distances between horiz./ vertical lines fixed based on the square root of price?

 

question: do you think that gann works all the time, or is there certain times when things line up and gann is high probability?

[BlowFish 10]

Just wondered if any of you guys have looked at pryapoint byDon Hall? Based on SQ9 (I believe). I used to use Ensign some time back and it had it implemented. Very interesting seeing as it only needs a single (significant) point to anchor.

 

It was one of those things that needed adjusting to tune it to 'frequency' and/or 'amplitude' and these could double or go out of phase as conditions changed. It was uncanny though when it all lined up(which was often). The other close relation (which may have been mentioned, I am an occasional visitor in this thread) is good ole Murray Math.

 

Makes me think perhaps its not the lines you use that matter its how you trade them. Some of these things really do seem 'in tune' though.

[BigKahuna 10]

waveslider,

 

The snag I posted is based on sqrt methodology. As for Gann "working." I tend to think that pure gann methodologies are extremely high probability at all times, our interpretations of the methodologies are faulty and prone to mistake.

 

There is much conjecture as to what or how Gann really traded. In his time, he was considered very successful. He did sell courses that were as costly as the average home or more, but this is not a reflection of his trading accum.

 

I remember a story of three traders in the pits in Chicago who received a flier for one of the courses that Gann was teaching. Because they were all struggling to make it, they pooled together the cash among the three of them, and sent one of them to the class with the understanding he would come back and show the others.

 

When the pit trader came back from the course, he avoided the other two for a week or so. These two could not help but to notice how this guys trading had changed and they wanted to know why and how. After the second week, they cornered the guy. He paid them both back in full, but never revealed to them what he learned.

 

He went on to become extremely successful being point on accurate trade and trade. The other two, languished. They never got to take Gann's course because he(Gann)died shortly after.

 

The moral of the story, only those that met Gann got the whole thing put together for them and they ain't talking. His courses are bits and pieces meant to placate those who wanted to know his strategies. My guess, the "secrets" are buried with him in a Brooklyn cemetery.

 

As for Dan Hall...I have read his book and studied his material. Some interesting and useful information. Is it the complete Gann story, no. But it is good and useful information.

 

You can search to try and capture Gann's or anyone else's methods, but the best way to trade is by the methods you develop yourself. The idea of time-price trading is not isolated to those we know have done it, but you can develop your own methods that are just as accurate.

 

It takes incredible work, but in the end, it is worth it. In my trader's tool box, I have probably two dozen methods to trade on the time-price continuum. Half of which I developed/discovered on my own. They are the ones I use every day without fail and the most accurate. It does not make them better than anyone else's, but they are mine and I know them inside out, how they work in every market condition.

Edited June 13, 2008 by BigKahuna
fat finger typing...need I say more?

[waveslider 10]

The S&P is in an 11 day cycle mode, the last of which came last wednesday when the market closed on its lows. We discussed last wednesday being a low in the SPY.

 

Looking at the S&P index, technically there is a reversal day today - monday. It seems highly likely that price will test recent lows. I expect this area to hold and price to retest May highs, here's why:

 

The circle on this chart looks to be the midpoint of this cycle according to the 11 day cycle. That would mean that the current downtrend is due to reverse on the 19th, thursday.

 

I expect price to retest May highs because price appears to have hit it's target in the range and it is trying to reverse. When the time is right it likely will. That will likely be at the end of the week.

[ammo 10]

from a trend line stance this mrket has broken a 5 year channel that started in 03,i can't transprt a chart but you can do a little homework and you will see it,we are in a bear mrkt and will possibly make it to halfway of last selloff from 1440 to 1330,110 divided by 2 is 55,1330 plus 55 is 1385,if you look at a ytd chart of es spx using a letter for each week, there is a nip near there,my hand charts are done in 10 point boxes so i can't pinpoint that value area but it's 1385 ish,more recently, if you ignore 6/5 and 6/6,an up trending day and a down trending day ,wed 6/4 has a nip at 79,thats jun, so sep nip resistance would be 1381, that's my guess as res for the upside if we take out the monday high

[waveslider 10]

Ammo, maybe you could explain a nip - I am assuming its market profile related. I see the trendline you are talking about, but don't necessarily conclude that this is a "bear market". It looks more likely to be a large range.

[BlowFish 10]

Interesting character Gann. His price action and money management stuff was very solid and I am pretty sure enough to extract cash from the markets consistently with little else. On top of that you have the geometric and mathematical stuff and then the truly esoteric (astrology). I wonder why people are so attracted to the esoteric? Some believe that his 'secrets' are in Tunnel Through the Air if you examine all the dates and work out the conjunctions of planets and market conditions at those times. Anyway another thread I seem to be taking off course, apologies.

[ammo 10]

Ammo, maybe you could explain a nip - I am assuming its market profile related. I see the trendline you are talking about, but don't necessarily conclude that this is a "bear market". It looks more likely to be a large range.

the nip is the widest spot on the pennant shape in mp, the cleavage is when it makes 2 pennants in 1 day,it leaves a gap in between,jun 12 in sep es ,there is a nip at 1343 and 1351, there is cleavage at 46,we are trading there right now at 6:15 cst,we should touch 43 and possibly go back up although it doesnt look too promising

, and bear mrkt wise if you look at dow trans you will see a break of a multi year channel also,unless we get back above that tl we are in a bear mrkt, yesterday that line came in around 5295,there is a shrtr tl starting jan 08 if u look ,you will see we are just under it,more bearish,fundamentally the rails start slowing down as the factories stop ordering or shipping new product

Edited June 18, 2008 by ammo

[waveslider 10]

Ammo, I'm sure we all enjoy participation from anyone when it is on topic. If you are going to post here would you please at least post some screen shots of what you are talking about? It's hard to see your point of view. Remember - this thread is about timing. Thanks.

 

Blowfish -

It is interesting that the esoteric stuff is what intrigues the most, kinda like how a conspiracy theory will live on long after it has been disproved (Elvis? Dead?)

Seems like Gann got so famous it snowballed on him and everything he said was golden.

I am amazed that he would come up with his angles and other observations with little outside influence. It leads to the question - is there secret knowledge that is handed down through the ages (not just market related, but market applicable)?

 

Back to topic, the S&P did reverse where it was supposed to according to the charts posted earlier, and if the center of this down trend is where I identified it, the end of the move would be tomorrow, friday latest.

[ammo 10]

sorry wave, can barely type,i'm a bad techy, don't know how to post up a chart,so i give the spots to look for and let people see for themselves, i'm sure your up on drawing trendlines but a lot of guys are still learning and it's good practice,by the way where are u looking for es to be by fri?

[waveslider 10]

I think these lows are going to hold and the market will turn up. That's just my feeling though of the "perfect" scenario geometrically. I'm still short today, but am covering on weakness (not reversing) today.

 

There is a great screen capturing software(free) called screenhunter. It's super easy to use and it would help us 1000% in understanding your perspective.

[waveslider 10]

Ok I am posting a chart that I posted last week, untouched from that time... except I added andrews lines based on a potential reversal tomorrow.

 

Notice the light blue lines are equally spaced and have pointed out many major reversals (some off the chart). This is a 22 day cycle, 2 times the 11 day cycle I have mentioned earlier. This is roughly a monthly cycle, in fact the may high happened exactly a month ago tomorrow.

 

The andrews line begins with the least aggressive target. Here we go... (ES chart)

[ammo 10]

thanks wave,another gann guy has this date, edit he has fri but this date was the 11 th ,then 16th and now the 20th,this one is tricky, a lot of guys are getting diff dates

Edited June 19, 2008 by ammo

[waveslider 10]

It is very important with timing to try and identify where the center of the previous trend was, and where the center of the current trend is developing.

 

What you are looking for is not just price, but volatility cycles. I mentioned in my previous posts that the 19th would be an important cycle day. From a volatility standpoint it was, marking a narrow range day that friday expanded out from.

 

This chart attempts to identify the midpoint in the current downward trend. I placed an a-b-c formation as I see it, and a matching move would take price to the target on the Andrews line.

 

This is price, pattern, and time in action. If the center is as I identified it, we should see a turn on the 26th right about 129.6 in the SPY.

[OAC 10]

This is price, pattern, and time in action. If the center is as I identified it, we should see a turn on the 26th right about 129.6 in the SPY.

 

26th looks good. I have a trend change date of 25th based on market geometry going all the way back to the end of last year. We will probably nail it this time.

[waveslider 10]

should get a good washout day tomorrow. There is a technical low predicted for tomorrow. Looks like that gap up above is the destination for the first bounce.

[waveslider 10]

Price is within cents of the Andrews target and short term measured move in SPY, indecision candle with increasing volatility today. I am going to go out on a limb here and call this a short term bottom, but another test of today's low is likely probably later this week.

 

This move since may was not a pull-back in a trend. This is a market that is ranging and trying to establish a bottom. Why is it no longer a trend?

 

Price has pulled back too far. It failed at the 50% level of the previous downtrend (since January).

 

Volume has entered into the picture since the beginning of the month, the highest on the "shock" wave down on the 6th. These are the highest volume levels since March.

 

Momentum and breadth are showing clear bullish divergences here today. Check out the a/d line, trin.. also the relative strength chart of the Russell vs. SPX is amazing. Midcaps kicking @#$

 

Check out this chart of the OEX and the INVERTED VXO index (Same as VIX)

[waveslider 10]

Well we got a retest of the bottom and a good capitulation move too. The time was too early to turn on the Andrew's line. Plus since this is a range, things are going to overshoot till they hit support/resist.

 

The timing signal from the original chart still stands, and though things are looking ugly here, it looks like this move won't keep up much longer. If the market closes above yesterday's close then the cycle could be complete.

 

Interesting to not this small doji bar in the circle on the chart. This is looking more like the center now. That would put a time low on Tuesday. That is looking more likely, as this yesterday's move was more than expected.

[OAC 10]

26th looks good. I have a trend change date of 25th based on market geometry going all the way back to the end of last year. We will probably nail it this time.

 

What a day the 26th was ? The market blew significant supports like they are not even there ! I redid my calculation on Robert Miner's Dynamic Trader, I also got the 26th instead of 25th on my Fibonacci Trader software. But if you are a market geometry oriented intraday trader/scalper, Fibonacci Trader by Robert Krausz(one of the Market wizards), is by far the best out there.

To recap this past friday, the S&P rebounded on intermediate supports. Given the very over sold condition of the market, we will most likely see the rebound to continue on Monday. What is really striking me is the Nasdaq 100 having great symmetry here on the hourly chart:

 

[waveslider 10]

Momentum certainly dried up on the 26th as we said, but time said not to reverse until today.

Worth noting is that price made an exact 50% move past the gap down on the 18th. I think that was the major reversal today. In any case we can expect either volatility to send price higher immediately, or volatility to die and we retest this low and possibly go lower.

I'm not going to update this thread much more. While I do believe in this method, I am learning other methods which are more accurate.