Wyckoff Lite

[DbPhoenix 42]

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Richard Wyckoff was a pioneer of technical analysis. While Dow contributed the theory that price moves in a series of trends and reactions, and Schabacker classified those movements into chart patterns, developed gap theory, and stressed the role of trader behavior in the development of patterns and support/resistance, Wyckoff contributed the study of the relationship between volume and price movement to detect imbalances between supply and demand, which in turn provided clues to direction and potential turning points. By also studying the dynamics of consolidations or horizontal movements, was able to offer a complete market cycle of accumulation, mark-up, distribution, and mark-down, which was in large part the result of shifts in ownership between retail traders and professional money.

 

Wyckoff sought to develop a comprehensive trading system which (a) focused on those markets and stocks that were “on the springboard” for significant moves, (b) initiated entries at those points which offered the highest probability of success, and © exited the positions at the most advantageous time, all with the least possible degree of risk*. His favorite metaphor for the markets and market action was water: waves, currents, eddies, rapids, ebb and flow. He did not view the market as a battlefield nor traders as combatants. He counseled the trader to analyze the waves, determine the current, “go with the flow”, much like a sailor. He thus encouraged the trader to find his entry using smaller “waves”, then, as the current picked him up, ride the current through the larger waves to the natural culmination of the move, even to the extent of pressing one’s advantage, or “pyramiding”, as opposed to cutting profits short, or “scalping”.

 

What distinguishes Wyckoff from all of the various Wyckoff knockoffs in circulation are (1) the emphasis on the continuity of price and (2) the lack of "setups".

 

Continuity of Price: Wyckoff began as a tape reader. By the time he incorporated daily charts into his trading, the continuity of price movement via the tape, tick by tick, had become so ingrained that he could see price no other way. Even though he might be looking at a series of daily bars on an end-of-day chart, he saw price as continuous. Thus the bar itself was irrelevant to him, and he was just as comfortable using line charts as bar charts. The line chart, in fact, more closely conforms to this continuity.

 

"Setups": There are no "setups" in Wyckoff, at least insofar as we commonly use the term. He did not say that if price does this, you buy and if price does that, you short. Rather he stressed that the trader must be sensitive to imbalances in buying pressure and selling pressure, particular at levels where these imbalances might most likely result in profit opportunities, e.g., reversals. Therefore, the "trading signal" is not, for example, a "double bottom" or a "higher low" or a "climax bottom" or even what some call a "spring" (not a Wyckoff term); the trading signal is provided by the imbalances between buying pressure and selling pressure (which is why software won't work), and if one does not view price as a continuous movement and is not sensitive to these continuous shifts in balance/imbalance, he will not understand what it is that he's supposed to do.

*Risk is minimized by (1) focusing on liquid markets, (2) monitoring the imbalances between buying pressure and selling pressure at those levels of “support” or “resistance” where price is most likely to reverse its trend, (3) entering on reversals (or, if necessary, retracements) rather than breakouts, and (4) getting out when the market tells you to.

 

 

WYCKOFF LITE

 

Wyckoff's original course** came in two "divisions": The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique, which amounted to about 400pp, and The Richard D. Wykcoff Method of Trading in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Tape Reading and Active Trading, which added 97pp,

 

Those who are intimidated by the prospect of working their way through 500p of a century-old course and/or those who are skeptical of the value of the course at the outset may be game for an abbreviated course, not a shortcut, but an "essence".

 

This can be accomplished in two phases. The first is targeted toward those who may be interested but first want to know what this is all about. This amounts to about 45p (that's the best I can do) from Division 1: The Basic Law of Supply and Demand (Section 2), Judging the Market by its Own Action (Section 3), and Buying and Selling Waves (Section 5), the application of all of which are demonstrated by Wyckoff himself in a year-long study (Determining the Trend of the Market, Section 7) of the market from the end of 1930 through 1931 and an 18-month study of a stock, from 1934 through 1935.

 

If after reading this tenth of the entire course, you think there may be something to all this after all, step in to phase two. This amounts to the four sections above plus the Forward (Section 1), Volume Studies (Section 14), Significance of Trend Lines (Section 15), Refinements (Section 21), Stop Orders (Section 23), General Instructions: Cautionary Suggestions (Section 24), and Market Philosophy (Section 25), about 90 additional pages all told.

 

SEARCHES

 

You may search Wyckoff's course (links provided above) just as you would any pdf. Open the pdf, click Ctrl+F, and enter your search term, e.g., trend or trendline or whatever. Once the function has found the first instance of your search term, click Next to go to the next instance.

 

 

WYCKOFF LITE-R

Given that you are in charge of your own learning, you have the option of skipping the Wyckoff course entirely, except perhaps as a resource, and skipping ahead to "Trading By Price" (a 21st -version of Wyckoff's approach). Whether or not this will work for you without ever consulting the original Wyckoff material is a matter of cloudy prognostication. But not all roads are smooth.

 

 

GLOSSARY

 

Note: Included in this glossary are what I call "abbreviations of convenience", e.g., AOC (abbreviation of convenience). Wyckoff didn't use them; he spelled everything out. But then Wyckoff didn't post to message boards. So please understand and forgive their use. They save a lot of wear and tear on the fingertips.

 

Accumulation: An area where stoc]ks are purchased – or “accumulated” -- with the intention to mark up prices at some later time. Every traded stock is in one of four phases: Accumulation, Mark-up, Distribution, Mark-down. Absorption is a form of "re-accumulation" which occurs toward the end of the Mark-up phase as price approaches old resistance. Buyers "absorb" the offerings of bulls who bought at that old resistance and now want out, as well as the offerings of bears who bought on the way down to that old resistance and now see an opportunity to get out even (see Determining the Trend of the Market by the Daily Vertical Chart, Division 1, p. 8).

 

Breakout: BO (AOC). A breakout is not just a matter of a price exceeding a previous price level. Price must break out of something, most often a trading range.

 

Buying Climax: the opposite of a Selling Climax (see Determining the Trend of the Market by the Daily Vertical Chart, Division 1, pp. 1, 2).

 

Composite Operator: Wyckoff’s name for the total sum of forces, including the public, that move the market.

 

Demand: Buying power, buying pressure.

 

Demand Line: that line which passes through two successive swing lows (the low points of two successive reactions). Also DL (AOC).

 

Distribution: An area where stocks are sold with the intention to mark down prices at some later time.

 

EOD: End of Day (AOC).

 

HH: Higher High (AOC).

 

HL: Higher Low (AOC).

 

LH: Lower High (AOC).

 

LL: Lower Low (AOC).

 

LSH: Last Swing High (AOC). A swing high or low represents a point at which traders are no longer able to find trades. Whether that point represents important support or resistance will be seen the next time traders push price in that direction. But everyone knows this point, even if they aren't following a chart. It exists independently of the trader and his lines and charts and indicators and displays. It is the point beyond which price could not go. Hence its importance, both to those who want to see price move higher and those who don't.

 

LSL: Last Swing Low (AOC). See above.

 

Mark-down: The phase of the cycle where prices decline, from the beginning of a bear campaign to its bottom.

 

Mark-up: The phase of the cycle where prices rise, from the beginning of a bull campaign to its top.

 

Overbought Position Line: that line which is drawn parallel to a demand line and passes through the first point of resistance (rally top) which intervenes between two successive points of demand in an up trend (whew!). In order to cut down on the jargon, the Supply Line is used here to perform the same function.

 

Oversold Position Line: that line which is drawn parallel to a supply line and passes through the first point of support (reaction low) which intervenes between two successive rally tops in a down trend (whew!). In order to cut down on the jargon, the Demand Line is used here to perform the same function.

 

Price movement [price action]: the continuous tick-by-tick (transaction-by-transaction) movement of price as shown on the tape [or on a corresponding chart].

 

Rally: A phase in the market that experiences rising prices, that is, higher highs and higher lows.

 

Reaction: A phase in the market that experiences declining prices, that is, lower highs and lower lows.

 

Resistance: An area where selling pressure overwhelms buying pressure. More specifically, resistance is the zone or level at which those who have enough money to make a difference attempt to retard, halt, and reverse a rise by selling.

 

Retracement: RET (AOC). The first pullback after a break through support or resistance and the second opportunity (the first being the break itself) to enter the trade. If price does not resume its course, the "retracement" becomes a failed breakout.

 

Reversal: REV (AOC). A bounce off of or rejection of a support or resistance level.

 

RT: Real Time (AOC).

 

S/R or S&R: Support and Resistance (AOC).

 

Secondary Reaction: The reaction following a Technical Rally.

 

Selling Climax: A major panic that occurs at the end of a steep decline in prices (see Determining the Trend of the Market by the Daily Vertical Chart, Division 1, pp. 1, 2).

 

Shakeout: A sudden break below a support level followed by a rapid reversal.

 

Springboard: A stock (or group or the market as a whole) is on the springboard following a period of preparation for an advance or decline.

 

Stop Loss: An order to exit a trade if the market does something that proves your initial decision to enter the trade was wrong.

 

Supply: Selling power, selling pressure.

 

Supply Line: that line which passes through two successive swing highs (tops of rallies). Also SL (AOC).

 

Support: An area where buying pressure overwhelms selling pressure. More specifically, support is the zone or level at which those who have enough money to make a difference are willing to show their support by retarding, halting, and reversing the decline by buying.

 

Tape: a thin strip of paper on which is printed a series of stock symbols, each print representing a transaction in that stock and consisting of the price at which the transaction took place and the volume of shares changing hands. Modern day equivalents are the "time-and-sales window" and the one-tick chart.

 

Tape Reading: the art of determining the immediate course or trend of prices from the action of the market as it appears on the tape of the stock ticker.

 

Technical Rally: The rally that occurs after a Selling Climax.

 

Thrust: A break above a resistance level followed by a rapid reversal.

 

Trading Range: A period of balance between supply and demand forces. Prices move within a range where the bottom represents demand and the top represents supply. Also TR (AOC).

 

Trend: The line of least resistance.

 

Trendlines: Straight lines drawn through the tops or bottoms of the price path established during an upward climb or downward pitch. They “serve to define the stride of the price movement, thereby frequently directing our attention either to possibilities of an approaching change of trend or to an actual reversal.” Also TL (AOC).

 

Volume: Number of units changing hands in each transaction.

 

Wave(s): See Buying and Selling Waves, Division 1, Section 5.

 

**Please note that this forum is focused on Wyckoff's original course. Wyckoff died in 1934, and his course passed into other hands. The provenance of the material and the relative quality of subsequent additions, deletions, alterations and so forth is not the concern of the forum but rather the study of the original material, the belief being that by studying the original material, the individual is in a better position to evaluate any other approaches, methods, systems, etc that are "based on Wyckoff", whether they make that claim or not. Without access to the material, the individual is in the position of having to take somebody's word for the content and intent, and that's not the best basis for beginning a trading strategy.

 

 

Enjoy.

Edited January 1, 2016 by DbPhoenix
Fix link

[DbPhoenix 42]

Please note that this forum is focused on Wyckoff's original course, The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique and The Richard D. Wykcoff Method of Trading in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Tape Reading and Active Trading. Wyckoff died in 1934, and his course passed into other hands. The provenance of the material and the relative quality of subsequent additions, deletions, alterations and so forth is not the concern of the forum but rather the study of the original material, the belief being that by studying the original material, the individual is in a better position to evaluate any other approaches, methods, systems, etc that are "based on Wyckoff", whether they make that claim or not. Without access to the material, the individual is in the position of having to take somebody's word for the content and intent, and that's not the best basis for beginning a trading strategy.

 

All threads which contain sections of the original course or pertain directly to the original course are designated with an arrow in a green circle.

 

Enjoy.

Edited July 4, 2012 by DbPhoenix