Off, Yet on Topic

[wasp 10]

I knew that level I used yesterday would scupper me and it did!

 

If I had not included it the long would still be in place from 204.40 but I used it, it gave a short setup which was just a retest of the 204.40 and up it continues....

 

Anyhow, thankfully wasn't about to get affected by it so as per earlier post I am back in from 206.40 looking for 208.10 > 209.30 > 213.50...

[GammaJammer 10]

I think thats the same with fibs too. Both 00's and fibs are coincidential too the key areas of S/R but S/R always comes first imo.

 

Agree totally for 00 levels, not sure I really agree with Fibs. I know for a fact that people in the wholesale markets eye key fibs (both retracement AND projection) on a forward looking basis.

 

How do I know? Because I will be sent many many e-mails / bloomberg messages and chat snippets a day from assorted mates at assorted banks citing fibos. But this kind of thing is usually only looked at by the larger players on a daily basis or longer (in terms of forward looking levels)

 

My $0.02

 

GJ

[wasp 10]

Agree totally for 00 levels, not sure I really agree with Fibs. I know for a fact that people in the wholesale markets eye key fibs (both retracement AND projection) on a forward looking basis.

 

How do I know? Because I will be sent many many e-mails / bloomberg messages and chat snippets a day from assorted mates at assorted banks citing fibos. But this kind of thing is usually only looked at by the larger players on a daily basis or longer (in terms of forward looking levels)

 

My $0.02

 

GJ

 

Interesting GJ,

 

I watch dailies as well as smaller TF's and whenever I stick on a fib level it always, and I mean always coincides with levels I have marked already as S/R.

 

 

Its that age old question...........?

 

What came first, the fib level or the supply and demand level?!

[GammaJammer 10]

Well fibo for S/R is a fairly esoteric concept so you can make a cogent argument for either really. Just telling you what I know, trying to keep it factual. Fibo projections are often touted when making new highs / lows (major ones I mean) where there's an absence of other prior levels.

 

Doesn't mean there's a guaranteed chicken / egg though - you can argue all sorts of stuff related to price movement symmetry etc. Ultimately doesn't matter too much. Imho all these things are is a crutch to hang your thoughts on. S/R levels are not set in stone (particularly in a fragmented market like FX) and the price can tear straight through them sometimes. Equally it can turn on a dime where you may see nothing at all on the chart.

 

But when a lot of people start looking at the same level, the price behaviour when that area is reached is HUGELY important imho. And the longer the timefrme / more the people that are watching it, the more this is the case.

 

And that, for me, in a nutshell, is S/R. (Hardly a Eureka post I admit).

 

GJ

[wasp 10]

Well fibo for S/R is a fairly esoteric concept so you can make a cogent argument for either really. Just telling you what I know, trying to keep it factual. Fibo projections are often touted when making new highs / lows (major ones I mean) where there's an absence of other prior levels.

 

There are always prior levels unless we are talking all time highs from day 1. I must be honest and point out I don't even know how to draw a fibo on my chart properly, but anyhow, if there is new all time highs, how could a fibo project it? Don't they need price either end?

 

Doesn't mean there's a guaranteed chicken / egg though - you can argue all sorts of stuff related to price movement symmetry etc. Ultimately doesn't matter too much.

 

Oh no, of course not, that was tongue in cheek. There is no one definitive obviously as that would meant the markets were so straight forward and predictable anyone could make money.

 

Imho all these things are is a crutch to hang your thoughts on. S/R levels are not set in stone (particularly in a fragmented market like FX) and the price can tear straight through them sometimes. Equally it can turn on a dime where you may see nothing at all on the chart.

 

S/R always means something IMO and if it tears straight through it, its as useful and important as if it reversed at it. IMHO it is the most important thing on my chart, second only to the candles/bars, mainly as they are the only 2 things on it mind! It can tell all, and always does.

 

But when a lot of people start looking at the same level, the price behaviour when that area is reached is HUGELY important imho. And the longer the timefrme / more the people that are watching it, the more this is the case.

 

Exactly, the more people pay attention to something, the more important it is. If everyone at, where is it you work again, Deutsche bank, barclays...? :rofl: watched the RSI for oversold/bought areas, then that would be the way forward but of course that's all tosh.

 

And that, for me, in a nutshell, is S/R. (Hardly a Eureka post I admit).

 

GJ

 

We'll let you off mate :o

[wasp 10]

 

 

The echo rings for hours............... I might just close this thread.

[firewalker 10]

Closed for +9. Never traded GJ over NFP and dubious. Shouldn't be I know but still....

 

 

Why not move the stop to breakeven instead of taking 9 pips?

Or is the slippage that bad on FX in case of NFP?

[wasp 10]

Why not move the stop to breakeven instead of taking 9 pips?

Or is the slippage that bad on FX in case of NFP?

 

Yes it is. I have never traded GJ over NFP. 600 seemed a nice round number.

[Phil Mibbutz 10]

 

 

The echo rings for hours............... I might just close this thread.

 

Don't close it yet, Wasp! My recent success rate with indices has almost convinced me to try FX again after a long break. Next week just take the opposite trades of anything I post and you'll be guaranteed huge profits.

[wasp 10]

Glad I was out. Everything gone somewhere except Yens who have retraced to the start again!

 

What a complete waste of time for Yen pairs.....................

 

I'm taking my +600 pips and going, have a good weekend all.

[gilligullu 10]

Have not been on here for a few days, been ill since Friday. Seems to be quiet everyone else got the flu as well?

[firewalker 10]

Some thoughts to send you guys off with into the weekend. Reminds me of this teacher I once had, who on Friday afternoon, gave us this really hard riddle or puzzle and pretty much spoiled our weekend since some us wanted to find the answer by Monday!

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f2/the-unknown-future-to-predict-or-4022.html

[firewalker 10]

I was wondering if everybody is still happy about the way things are going here, I mean with posting live trades.

 

I've noticed the frequency and number of people posting their positions has dropped a bit, and I was wondering if I missed something or if some people are discontent for some reason.

 

Please let me or wasp know if this is the case.

[JT1 10]

I was wondering if everybody is still happy about the way things are going here, I mean with posting live trades.

 

I've noticed the frequency and number of people posting their positions has dropped a bit, and I was wondering if I missed something or if some people are discontent for some reason.

 

Please let me or wasp know if this is the case.

 

I like TL and have no probs with how things are.

 

I am not very active on the net as i have not been trading all the time. I have been fairly busy summarising a few final test results etc. as to the best way to move forward with my trading, timeframe, strategy finer details etc.

Edited June 17, 2008 by JT1

[firewalker 10]

I like TL and have no probs with how things are.

 

I am not very active on the net as i have not been trading all the time. I have been fairly busy summarising a few final test results etc. as to the best way to move forward with my trading, timeframe, strategy finer details etc.

 

That's okay, I'm pretty busy studying these days. Auction market theory, behavioural economics, calendar effects,... It is time spent more useful when waiting for a trade, then trying to outsmart myself by taking more trades then necessary. The level of discussion on this website has pleasantly surprised me, which keeps me busy as well when waiting for a trade.

 

I was just wondering why some people seem to have ceased posting live trades... I guess the weather is too nice to sit in front of the screen

[JT1 10]

Yes, the summer mood is making me question what I'd rather be doing right now!

 

I've come to a conclusion that Its a shame i cant implement my intraday (M30) strat on twice as many pairs as what i can handle, as that would lead to double the profits more or less....unfortunately i cannot divide my attention to the required extrent for that.

Still, half the pairs (2 pairs) should still do well.

[GammaJammer 10]

You should see what I do when I win!

 

I bet you go home and creosote your garden fence like Alan Shearer did when Blackburn won the league

[gilligullu 10]

I was wondering if everybody is still happy about the way things are going here, I mean with posting live trades.

 

I've noticed the frequency and number of people posting their positions has dropped a bit, and I was wondering if I missed something or if some people are discontent for some reason.

 

Please let me or wasp know if this is the case.

 

I think this place is good! Very neat! Not posting much due to no money and new job.

[firewalker 10]

see attachment...

[firewalker 10]

free market is at risk...

 

'Liquidation only' restriction?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/06/one-method-to-flush-out-oil-speculators.html

 

And 'higher margin requirements'?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/22/obama.speculators.ap/index.html

[firewalker 10]

woohoo I made it to guru status!!

 

oh yes I beat wasp to it :haha:

[wasp 10]

woohoo I made it to guru status!!

 

oh yes I beat wasp to it :haha:

 

Congratulations.... You officially post more than I do! :rofl:

[firewalker 10]

Congratulations.... You officially post more than I do! :rofl:

 

I thought that only came after +1000 posts!

 

guess it must be my charisma that triggered the 'guru' status :rofl:

[firewalker 10]

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/euro-emini-sp500.html

 

potentially interesting?

[wasp 10]

Am I a bit weird.........

 

About a year and a half ago, I went to NZ in view to move there.... I spent about 3 months on this first trip to see what I truly thought...

 

When I arrived, I planned on trading the HMA strat in view of automating what I do know but by using the HMAs for the computers benefit. Anyhow, I ws only trading the UK sess on cable and that was the opposite hours (nightime) and I thought it would be worth the sacrifice.

 

IT turned out that for the whole month it was the Asian session that traded better. Now, I thought (one of those important turning points in my career) that was a bit harsh, I wonder whether around the clock would be better.

 

So from then till now... I watched and traded around the clock to my benefit. This works especially well in FX obviously and especially in Yen/UK pairs as there is always someone awake and moving it.

 

Just reading a thread about 'potential setups' and for me, (I used to have this written in bold across my wall calender), EVERYTHING happens for a reason and thus, coupled with, a perfect exit is an entry, I realised that in my market, potential setups never end, they are always there as EVERYTHING happens for a reason...

 

Am I the only one that sees and does this?