Live FX Trades

[firewalker 10]

It just had to be the biggest intraday move in 5 years!!!

 

FX joins the party

 

Last week we had the biggest intraday move in the DOW ever and today it was the biggest drop ever in European indices!

[pipMonster 10]

Well, I missed the move back up. Grrr..

 

Now I get to wait around for the next move to set up.

[cowpip 10]

Crapola squared!!

 

I not only missed the move higher, but I also missed the bigger stepped move higher this evening. My sodding internet went down for two bloody hours! Murphy is really playing games with me this week! And the signal was so incredibly clear too! Sigh...

[wasp 10]

I am having a shit week too! Missed the move up, took a couple of hits in the congestion, and then my laptop died on me and having to use a poxy 5 year old PC with windows millenium on it whilst I get it sorted out!!

 

The stops needed at the moment are too big and whilst in 'no mans land' down here, my S/R levels are not working! Think I may take the rest of this week off whilst getting things sorted out!

[pipMonster 10]

Wasp, I think that may be the best thing to do. Geppy is so incredibly volatile it's nearly impossible to trade without huge stops.

[wasp 10]

yep, I am not going to start using 100 pip stops either!

[pipMonster 10]

GJ short 179.10 break and retest of ascending trend line

 

Also took a loss earlier for -61 on a short from 180.10

 

BTW, thanks again Wasp for your selflessness and patience in posting your trading setup and strategy. Greatly appreciated.

 

UPDATE: Closed at 176.74 for +236

Edited October 7, 2008 by pipMonster

[Bearbull 10]

Did you trade off 60min chart pipMonster, even bars on 5min chart reflect 50-100pips, talk about this market being volatile:)

 

What was the reason for exit, was it a trendline break, maybe a post with a chart would help.

[pipMonster 10]

Here's a set of charts that I use to monitor price action. Though it says demo on the chart menu bar, I trade my cash account through Oanda.

 

The chart is notated. Hope this helps to answer questions for you.

[Bearbull 10]

Thanks pipMonster,

o.k so you are taking your entry signals from the 60min chart and managing the trade via 15min,

 

That 60min bar breaking the uptrend line is one heck of bar with high of 180.77 and low of 179.08, Where did you place your stoploss.

 

Do alpari offer free charting on demo. even if their trading platform is not used.

How does Oanda platform compared to other you may have employed.

[cowpip 10]

I am having a shit week too! Missed the move up, took a couple of hits in the congestion, and then my laptop died on me and having to use a poxy 5 year old PC with windows millenium on it whilst I get it sorted out!!

 

I'm right with you there, Wasp. Took too more losses on perfectly valid signals overnight. No reason to trade in this dreck.

[cowpip 10]

Careful out there guys... these markets are (imho) quite disorderly. We need at least reasonable short-term trends to make any cash. And right now, there are no reliable short-term (hourly) trends. It's chaos right now.

[daedalus 10]

Wasp... I really like what you're doing in this thread and the entries you're using... Very simple, yet powerful stuff. Is there any post in this thread that really outlines any rules you have for drawing trendlines, etc? I've search all of your other threads on here and read your blog but haven't found anything that really outlines it. (I have yet to read all 60 pages of this thread however). Have you even done that, and if so would you be so kind o reference me to it?

 

Thanks a million regardless and I wish you guy the best of luck!

[cowpip 10]

daedalus, he has some images on his blog that described the theory and process quite well.

 

Maybe these will help?...

[daedalus 10]

thats perfect cowpip! Many thanks!

 

Just out of curiousity... what are you guys using to determine prior s/r lines? Anything in particular or just areas of congestion, prior highs/lows?

[pipMonster 10]

Thanks pipMonster,

o.k so you are taking your entry signals from the 60min chart and managing the trade via 15min,

 

That 60min bar breaking the uptrend line is one heck of bar with high of 180.77 and low of 179.08, Where did you place your stoploss.

 

Do alpari offer free charting on demo. even if their trading platform is not used.

How does Oanda platform compared to other you may have employed.

 

In this instance, yes, I'm taking the entry off the hourly chart from how price reacted after passing through the trend line AND how the beginning of subsequent candle reacted to that.

 

My stop loss was set at 61 pips. It's as far as I can put it away from my entry per my RR and MM rules. This is a very tricky market to trade so I consider getting out of the trade at the first sign of danger.

 

Yes, Alpari does offer free charting as a demo. I feel Oanda is the best of the non-ECN/STP brokers. They're far from perfect. Their execution is wicked fast for the size I trade. The entry system is very simple and easy to understand. Their news wire is not too bad. On the bad side, they widen spreads to the extreme at certain news events at the very last second before data release.

[cowpip 10]

Just out of curiousity... what are you guys using to determine prior s/r lines? Anything in particular or just areas of congestion, prior highs/lows?

 

I use the 4-hour charts, highs and lows of the candle BODIES, not the wicks. I'll also plot 1-hour S/R lines using the same method to help judge shorter-term S/R. But as Wasp has said time and again, it's the 4-hour S/R that rules.

 

When plotting the S/R, the lines should pass through areas where price switches from support to resistance or resistance to support. That is most easily discerned using the bodies of the candles.

[wasp 10]

Has anyone got any idea where this is going?!!!

 

I like to think with a S/R or two and trendline I have a good inkling, but right now, I have no idea whatsoever!

[cowpip 10]

If we were liver, we'd be chopped right now.

 

This is going EVERYWHERE. That's the problem.

 

I have no clue either. Throw your money in the air and see how much of it you can catch. Those are the current odds.

[cowpip 10]

Take a look at the 4-hour chart, Wasp. Isn't that just lovely? Chop chop.

[wasp 10]

madness I tell ya, madness!

[wasp 10]

mid week Gin and Vermouth time I think!

[daedalus 10]

This just isn't the week for 4HR patterns. I trade the 5min and 60min primarily and today the 5min yeilded over 300 pips off of eight different pairs and 7 trades... but that kind of movement is NUTS on a small timeframe like that. The volatility right now is amazing. However it doesn't translate into a smooth picture on the 4hr chart.

 

Give it a week and I think we might see a push towards normalized behavior again.

[cowpip 10]

This just isn't the week for 4HR patterns. I trade the 5min and 60min primarily and today the 5min yeilded over 300 pips off of eight different pairs and 7 trades... but that kind of movement is NUTS on a small timeframe like that. The volatility right now is amazing. However it doesn't translate into a smooth picture on the 4hr chart.

 

Give it a week and I think we might see a push towards normalized behavior again.

 

I have noticed that the swings on the 5-minute are big enough to utilize Wasp's TL strat with modest success. But I won't do that - it encourages overtrading, which has hurt me more times than I can count.

 

I'll just hang tight and wait for something more akin to "normal" (although I am currently short on GJ... but perhaps not for long).

[wasp 10]

A shame we can't have this volatility but nicely stretched over a few more hours. You, know, buy Monday for 500 and sell down Tuesday for 500 more... back and forth all week! Net us all a couplf thousand pips!

 

Oh, with 10-15 pip stops needed max!