Live FX Trades

[wasp 10]

shit! thats going back to 2003 levels!

[cowpip 10]

shit! thats going back to 2003 levels!

 

It's bouncing back up now to 185.70 at the present time. It may have been a stop-hunt during low-liquidity. It dropped as low as 184.21 before bouncing.

 

Still, I think you may be right.

 

Hey, take a look at the monthly chart (not that we trade off of that). If you do a fib-extension, you end up with a target level way WAY down near 167, which was last touched in June 2001. Granted, that's a monthly chart and could take a year to get there, but fib extensions are reasonable tools for estimating targets.

 

The only thing I will royally hate about it going further down is the lack of trust in determining S/R levels. I like seeing prices bounce off of recent levels, not levels that were seen 5 years ago. Ah well. If it goes down, it goes down. I don't really care, as long as I'm in on it.

[wasp 10]

Last time around when the economy was poor, GBPUSD doubled its current drop so I think we could have a long way to go yet. (I haven't actually looked back at the same period in GJ).

 

I am with you though, its nicer to work from recent S/R rather than that far back but what you gonna do?!

[cowpip 10]

Can't do anything about that. It goes, we follow the best we can.

 

Looks like prices are stabilizing around 185.70/80.

 

At any rate, I won't start nibbling at this for another 4 or 5 hours anyway. But with less than an hour to go before the official open, it should be interesting to watch, at least.

 

Here's how the 5-min chart morphed on Oanda from the pre-Asian time. Those initial drops were instantaneous. The drops happened in less than 10 seconds and then flat-lined for a while. Nasty.

[cowpip 10]

So it ended up tanking back down to the lows for the official open. That's a pretty big gap (again). Interesting. I'm SO not looking forward to filling in more blank spaces with S/R lines. Sigh... I'm worried there may come a time when my platform won't go back far enough on the 4-hour to see the support. I guess I'll have to rely on daily support lines after that.

[cowpip 10]

Crapola... missed this move lower on GJ. Looks good and strong so far - break of the weekly congestion too. Sigh... guess you can't snag them all. I hope some of you were able to grab on for a ride.

[pipMonster 10]

After taking a -61 loss earlier on a poor entry short position, I'm in short from 183.90.

 

Hopefully this run for a while.

[cowpip 10]

Nicely done pipmonster! Hopefully, you're still holding it and making some bookoo-bucks!

[pipMonster 10]

Yeah, still in it. This pull back atm is concerning me. It's retraced almost 100 pips. Hopefully it'll stay below 182 and give up some more real estate to the south as the session wears on.

[wasp 10]

Nice one pipmonster. I actually trailed mine and was stopped out pretty much here at 181.80. Looks prime for another shot lower (rejection of TL) but the candles of the last 3 hours aren't so convincing.

[pipMonster 10]

Just got stopped out now @ 182.40. I think I let this retrace a bit too far without closing in the hopes that it would continue further south as the Londoners came on line for the day. Live and learn. Still it was a nice bit of cash for the account, so no complaints.

 

Wasp, I see where you closed and that makes good sense. I'm still grasping the fundamentals of your exiting. The hourly inside bar should always garner some interest.

 

I'm not sure this has reversed direction yet. I'll be more inclined to accept the reversal if price breaks and holds above 182.50.

[wasp 10]

I have gone long already as on mine, it has broken the trendline and a S/R level (from about 5 years ago! so dubious!). It's not looking great atm but I don't think we'll break the low anytime soon.

 

My exit was based on a trailing point between S/R as I was half asleep but normally I would have waited for the TL break.

 

Granted not th greatest considering its 150 from the low but 150 here and there is the norm atm whereas 6 weeks ago it would have been 50. That's volatility for you!

[wasp 10]

Ahh well, stopped out of that one... wait for the next candle and see time.............

 

This is a tad annoying... The problems with 5 year old S/R really!

Edited October 6, 2008 by wasp

[pipMonster 10]

I'm still waiting for the next solid signal. Maybe after the London crowd returns from lunch?

[wasp 10]

Taken a 2nd shot at a long from the latest candle myself. IF this fails, then I stand aside till opposing move... I know when to quit!

[wasp 10]

500 pip drop in hour and a half (with no signs of stopping) and I missed it.............. I'm off to find a corner to cry in!

 

Damn discipline and rules telling me not to take the BIGGEST daily move in...?

[cowpip 10]

I'm just as frustrated. But hey, there's nothing we can do about it. This sucker could turn right around and rip higher, for all we know. That plunge was a tad bit too steep for my liking. Sure, it would have been sweet to take, but I'll make it another way (just not as fast).

 

It'll be interesting to see how this hour (and the next) candles close.

[wasp 10]

I sat and looked at the opening of the candle and 'nearly' broke my rules and decided that, it would be optimum to trail it there but the risk to high to short...

 

Considering it did just retrace and drop 250 either way, it was too risky but still, a 700 pip Monday would have been a nice start to the week!

 

C'est la vie!

[cowpip 10]

These moves now are so volatile (> 100 pip swings in short periods of time), it just makes no sense to me to attempt trading GJ for now. This needs to settle down. Your entry would have to be very well placed to avoid a loss now. Sigh... Maybe I'll look at another pair for the rest of the day.

[daedalus 10]

Crazy morning... Got short in the USDCHF... went +30 in favor took me out for par + a couple pips of profit then went 30 pips against me all inside 1 candle... Def. outlier price action today.

 

I think i'm on the sidelines for now. Most likely thing to happen now is to see consolidation so that means nil opportunities for myself.

 

Hope you guys got in on some of the tasty moves this morning. I know I didn't. Thought i was going to on the CHF trade but it ended up making the move against me (in the trend of the 4HR go figure).

 

Cheers!

[wasp 10]

I ended up taking 4 trades that lost in that congestion which is why I didn't short but had I stuck with the plan and only had 3 losses prior, all would be fine. The SL on the drop required was only 10 max and it would just be another normal trade otherwise. Just bigger!

 

Not much can do about it now though. Followed the rules at the time and risk before reward in my book.

[cowpip 10]

Yip... that's about all you can do. It works more times than not for you. Missing one now and then is just part of the game.

[wasp 10]

Yip... that's about all you can do. It works more times than not for you. Missing one now and then is just part of the game.

 

It just had to be the biggest intraday move in 5 years!!!

[cowpip 10]

I hear you! Murphy's sodding law!

[pipMonster 10]

I was able to grab a quick +50 from 174.78.

 

I got out of bed this morning and went straight for CNBC and the charts. I was absolutely floored! This is crazy.

 

I'm hoping we can all profit in a huge way off these moves.