Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

firewalker

Trade Discussion and Analysis

Recommended Posts

Quick question for you Wasp...

 

At the start of each new week, do you reset your trend-lines, or do you carry them forward from the previous week if there are obvious touches/bounces from them?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quick question for you Wasp...

 

At the start of each new week, do you reset your trend-lines, or do you carry them forward from the previous week if there are obvious touches/bounces from them?

 

It continues and flows like the never ending tides of the sea and no weekend nor public holiday or worldwide disaster changes the ebb and flow of the smooth swings that make up the flow of gbpjpy.

 

I did screw it up at the opening of the week slightly but like the sig says... live. learn and adapt and the blog shows the ease of the flow.

 

Be like water making its way through cracks. Do not be assertive, but adjust to the object, and you shall find a way round or through it. If nothing within you stays rigid, outward things will disclose themselves. Empty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water. If you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put water into a bottle and it becomes the bottle. You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now, water can flow or it can crash. Be water my friend.

 

 

Bruce Lee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alright, here's a question for you Wasp... it's a problem I regularly encounter, and I think it may be part of the reason why I am taking unnecessary losses at times. Let me know your thoughts, if you would?

 

Look at the image below... it contains two screen-captures. The left-side is the 1-hour frame and the right side is the 30-min frame.

 

If I were only looking at the 1-hour chart, I might have taken a long as the open of the hourly candle broke (or seemed to come very close) the trend-line down.

 

But if you look at the 30-min (or lower time-frame) chart, it's clear that the trend line hasn't broken.

 

So, in this case, do you take the 1-hour break, or do you zoom in to confirm that the TL has actually broken on the lower time-frames as well? I would imagine that you would confirm with the lower time-frames as well... but if true, is the 30-min low enough, or should the 15-min be consulted if necessary? The "how low can you go" question pops up into my head... ;)

 

EDIT: I should note that on the hourly chart, the open of the last candle represents the point at which I might have taken a long. The screen-capture shows the candle after it formed a bit following the open of the candle. But on the 30-min, I wouldn't have given that it never broke there. So a minor conflict...

OCT2108A.thumb.gif.c287564d61e6729373fd049cade49771.gif

Edited by cowpip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll answer this later just as soon as you answer this........

 

Wheres the short term S/R?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?

 

This is daft without anything sub daily data!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'll answer this later just as soon as you answer this........

 

Wheres the short term S/R?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?

 

This is daft without anything sub daily data!

 

The short-term S/R data is plotted on the chart. The horizontal red lines?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am taking time off now until we break back into previously trodden territory as I can not trade without the data that forms the basis of my methods........

 

Until we sit back above 163.25 region with a HrL I am out of here... I will answer your post in a bit though...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right! I'm hunting for new hourly data from other sources. If I find anything, you'll be the first to know.

 

Until then, if we intend to play this, we'll have to stick to the daily frame, I guess, huh? Yuck. It could take weeks for something there to set up the way this is starting to trend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Alright, here's a question for you Wasp... it's a problem I regularly encounter, and I think it may be part of the reason why I am taking unnecessary losses at times. Let me know your thoughts, if you would?

 

Look at the image below... it contains two screen-captures. The left-side is the 1-hour frame and the right side is the 30-min frame.

 

If I were only looking at the 1-hour chart, I might have taken a long as the open of the hourly candle broke (or seemed to come very close) the trend-line down.

 

But if you look at the 30-min (or lower time-frame) chart, it's clear that the trend line hasn't broken.

 

So, in this case, do you take the 1-hour break, or do you zoom in to confirm that the TL has actually broken on the lower time-frames as well? I would imagine that you would confirm with the lower time-frames as well... but if true, is the 30-min low enough, or should the 15-min be consulted if necessary? The "how low can you go" question pops up into my head... ;)

 

EDIT: I should note that on the hourly chart, the open of the last candle represents the point at which I might have taken a long. The screen-capture shows the candle after it formed a bit following the open of the candle. But on the 30-min, I wouldn't have given that it never broke there. So a minor conflict...

 

It looks like a simple case of doing it, taking the loss and then SAR'ing! Don't fight the plan, just have to take the shit and move on! It ain't perfect!

 

I know when SAR'ing it can be bitch but try to wait for price to retrace to the S/R before getting in?

 

I'll try and post a couple of screenshots of mine to explain better as I find it easier to annotate with metatrader.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So here we have a classic example of setups failing.

 

The downtrend is strong and obvious but wouldn't have made 1000 pips a week for the last 5/6 unless taking the setups and SAR'ing.

 

(I know firewalker will appear you see and show me a chart with obvious HrL and HrH and say 'oh why would you buy into this' but look at the past! boy!)

trends.thumb.gif.e93c285ccac442ed15ab2b00044def97.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So here we have a classic example of setups failing.

 

The downtrend is strong and obvious but wouldn't have made 1000 pips a week for the last 5/6 unless taking the setups and SAR'ing.

 

Right. So you don't SAR when your stop-loss is hit. You are PATIENT (my arch-nemesis!!!) and wait until price pulls back on a future hourly candle where it touches the trend-line and is as close as reasonable to resistance.

 

That makes so much bloody sense!!!

 

I have such a thick head, sometimes.

 

Much appreciate your help, Wasp. Very much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, always err on the side of caution and wait for a pullback... Sods law occasionally it will go and go without you but what you gonna do! Can't have your cake and eat it too!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yep, always err on the side of caution and wait for a pullback... Sods law occasionally it will go and go without you but what you gonna do! Can't have your cake and eat it too!

 

That's one of the most frustrating aspects of Sod's law.

 

Can you explain in a wee bit more detail what you mean by "Confirmation = Too late" in your annotation?

 

Confirmation as in... you're expecting a pull-back to confirm the long, but that move failed entirely, so the need to short?

 

And one last question... on those pull-backs that you have noted that are valid for shorts, you would typically not enter short until the open of the new hourly candle? If price happened to run all the way up to that resistance line about 20 minutes into the new hour, would you take the short then, or would you only take it at the open of the new hour?

 

I've heard you say that you take trades within a minute or two of the open of a new candle - but I'm uncertain how rigid you are about that. It makes sense to me to take an entry anytime during the hour if it reaches a good buying level. But you're the master here... if you only take entries at the open, there must be a good reason.

 

This much I do know - the momentum can switch on a dime at the open of a new hour. What was bullish momentum during one hour can quickly (and oddly) become bearish momentum during the next hour. From what I understand, I think this is what you're relying on. One hour may be a pull-back - and that entire hour will be nothing but a pull-back. The following hour will test the resolve of that pull-back. It's true from the large to the small time-frames. It's freaky odd, but it's true. I suspect this is why you typically only trade at the open?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In fact, if it wasn't for the Mervyn incident, this would have been one of the best intraday = swing moves ever!

 

That's for sure. It took me out, and ever since then, I haven't been able to re-enter - specifically because of my failure to SAR properly. I really do need to work on that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's for sure. It took me out, and ever since then, I haven't been able to re-enter - specifically because of my failure to SAR properly. I really do need to work on that.

 

You and me both... What should have been a great 24/36 hours have been terrible here too... I was having an absolutely blinding week with 900+ pips already!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's one of the most frustrating aspects of Sod's law.

 

Can you explain in a wee bit more detail what you mean by "Confirmation = Too late" in your annotation?

 

Confirmation as in... you're expecting a pull-back to confirm the long, but that move failed entirely, so the need to short?

 

It actually means in this instance that by the time confirmed, it was too late as it opened above S/R. Thus waiting for the next rejection to make it resistance.

 

And one last question... on those pull-backs that you have noted that are valid for shorts, you would typically not enter short until the open of the new hourly candle? If price happened to run all the way up to that resistance line about 20 minutes into the new hour, would you take the short then, or would you only take it at the open of the new hour?

 

I've heard you say that you take trades within a minute or two of the open of a new candle - but I'm uncertain how rigid you are about that. It makes sense to me to take an entry anytime during the hour if it reaches a good buying level. But you're the master here... (:\ If I was that good I'd be in the Times rich list mate!) if you only take entries at the open, there must be a good reason.

 

I try my hardest to only take on the hour and I may wait a few minutes to see how it opens but otherwise its on the hour.... Its sometimes not the best thing to do but, need restraints to stop overtrading.

 

This much I do know - the momentum can switch on a dime at the open of a new hour. What was bullish momentum during one hour can quickly (and oddly) become bearish momentum during the next hour. From what I understand, I think this is what you're relying on. One hour may be a pull-back - and that entire hour will be nothing but a pull-back. The following hour will test the resolve of that pull-back. It's true from the large to the small time-frames. It's freaky odd, but it's true. I suspect this is why you typically only trade at the open?

 

My main reason for only trading at the open is to minimize overtrading but, I do think the banks pay attention to the open and close of each hour or 4hr. I know many will say the candle is representation over an ever flowing market but, those that move this with big money do have similar things on their computer screens and to dismiss the open as unimportant is unwise imo.

 

Also, the trend will change uncannily well 80% of the time at the open as shown in my blog week on week... I don't question why though and just try to maximize.

 

Now, excuse me but must google Merv Kings address so I can torch his house. The git!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Now, excuse me but must google Merv Kings address so I can torch his house. The git!

 

ROFL!...

 

You torch it, and I'll kick the snot out him as he rolls out of the place.

 

Anyone with a silly name like that deserves a riot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
(:\ If I was that good I'd be in the Times rich list mate!)

 

Dude... someone whose hoping for an 8-figure Christmas present SHOULD be on the Times rich list!

 

I'm afraid I'll have to be happy with a lump of coal. Santa's not going to like me very much after I get through with Merv-the-perv. :security:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

'shooting for' and 'getting' are 2 very different things!

 

7/8 weeks yet........... :missy:

 

I'll just be happy with a really solid, consistent year of the plan. Teach a man to fish and all that..........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
'shooting for' and 'getting' are 2 very different things!

 

7/8 weeks yet........... :missy:

 

I'll just be happy with a really solid, consistent year of the plan. Teach a man to fish and all that..........

 

Amen to that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure what you guys are up to but not trading GJ personally atm and actually flipped over onto NOK instead till it levels off a bit.

 

Until it stops being a one way road I am standing aside......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
it's official

the market is dead!

 

check this out

 

did somebody pull the plugs??

 

looks like overnight limits are maximum 5%...

I thought circuit breakers only came into play after 10% but that's during the day

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 4th April 2025.   USDJPY Falls to 25-Week Low as Safe Havens Surge and Markets Eye NFP Data.   Safe haven currencies and the traditional alternative to the US Dollar continue to increase in value while the Dollar declines. Investors traditionally opt to invest in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at times of uncertainty and when they wish to avoid the Dollar. The Japanese Yen continues to be the best-performing currency of the week and of the day. Will this continue to be the case after today’s US employment figures?   USDJPY - NFP Data And Trade Negotiations The USDJPY is currently trading at a 25-week low and is witnessing one of its strongest declines this week. The exchange rate is no longer obtaining indications from the RSI that the price is oversold. The current bullish swing is obtaining indications of divergence as the price fails to form a higher high. Therefore, short-term momentum is in favour of the US Dollar, but there are still signs the Japanese Yen can regain momentum quickly.       USDJPY 1-Hour Chart     The price movement of the exchange rate in both the short and long term will depend on 3 factors. Today’s US employment data, next week’s inflation rate and most importantly the progress of negotiations between the US and trade partners. If today’s Unemployment Rate increases above 4.1%, the reading will be the highest seen so far in 2025. Currently, the market expects the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.1% and the Non-Farm Payroll Change to add 137,000 jobs. The average NFP reading this year so far has been 194,000.   If data does not meet expectations, US investors may continue to increase exposure away from the Dollar and to other safe-haven assets. Previously investors were expecting only 2 rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, however, most investors now expect up to 4. If today’s employment data deteriorates, economists advise the Federal Reserve may opt to cut interest rates sooner.   Therefore, it is important to note that today’s NFP will influence the USDJPY to a large extent. Whereas in the longer-term, trade negotiations will steal the spotlight. If trade partners are able to negotiate the US Dollar can correct back upwards. Whereas, if other countries retaliate and do not negotiate the US Dollar will remain weak.   USDJPY - The Yen and the Bank of Japan The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency in 2025 increasing by 6.70% so far. Risk indicators such as the VIX and High-Low Indexes continue to worsen which is positive for the JPY as a safe haven currency.   Yesterday Japan released March business activity data that came in weaker than expected: the Services PMI dropped from 53.7 to 50.0, while the Composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 48.9. The data is the lowest in two years. These figures could hinder further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, most economists still expect the Bank Of Japan to hike at least once more. It's also important to note, that even if the BOJ opts for a prolonged pause, a cut is not likely.   Additionally, a 24% tariff was imposed on Japanese exports to the US yesterday. Prime Minister Mr Ishiba expressed disappointment over Japan's failure to secure a tariff exemption and pledged support measures to help domestic industries manage the impact.   Key Takeaway Points: US Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Rise: The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue to gain as investors shift away from the US Dollar. USDJPY Under Pressure: USDJPY trades at a 25-week low, with short-term momentum favouring the Dollar but long-term trends pointing to potential Yen strength. NFP and Unemployment Crucial: Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures will heavily influence short-term USDJPY. On the other hand, trade negotiations will dictate longer-term trends. Japan Faces Mixed Signals: Despite weak PMI data and new US tariffs, the Japanese Yen remains strong. Economists expect at least one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan, but no cuts are in sight. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • YUM Yum Brands stock, nice breakout with volume +34.5%, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?YUM
    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.