Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

firewalker

Trade Discussion and Analysis

Recommended Posts

On a fundamental vein...

 

I don't know why I never thought of this before, but is it really possible that the central banks around the world have made matters far worse by being so free with their money? Big Ben and his helicopter are dumping everything they have on the problem. Practically any bank that wants to borrow from them can.

 

AND THAT IS THE CRUX OF A MAJOR PROBLEM.

 

Why on Earth would any bank want to lend to any other bank if they can get what they need from the central bank? Why would they risk lending to another bank that may or may not be solvent if they can get their money just about as easily from a central bank???

 

THAT is why Libor is increasing so much. And that is also why banks will continue to be unwilling to lend to other banks. Throwing tax payer money at the problem won't help. Recapitalizing banks with taxpayer money probably would help, but it won't help fix the interbank trust issue - not until banks are so fully capitalized that they can see there will be no solvency issues. That could take a long time.

 

So that brings up another issue. How on Earth is the Fed going to be able to wean themselves away from the banks, now that they've got breasts the size of Manhatten?

 

The situation we're in now can't possibly get better anytime soon. At least, I can't imagine how it could.

 

For more about this - a really good read... try this:

 

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/are-central-banks-making-libor-worse.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Where next? (my attempt at being Buffet!)

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7521250.stm

 

This is all becoming too obvious... Gapped up as expected.

 

Especially with the infuriating bank bailout here. Now its Japans turn to feel the squeeze as the pound rises back up a bit, everyone eases off a bit and the TV informs everyone they can relax as the good old government bails out the greedy idiot bank CEO's who helped cause the mess with their mortgage lending and we are all safe. So they borrow to bail them out from their gambles and the bank of England makes money back on the interest from their loans, everyone is told the economy is leveling out yet the average man gets fucked whilst the fat cats still get richer. Makes you sick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Makes you sick.

 

It does... but what really gets my goat is this ridiculous 30 pip spread on GJ!!! That's double what it was last week. It's insane.

 

If the bailout works, the yen will get squeezed hard, I imagine. But there's an awful lot of confusion right now. No one even seems to know if the stock markets are open in the US on Monday, given that it's Columbus day. Why wouldn't they know??? It's no different than it was last year, and the year before, is it?

 

Anyway, I suppose you've already gone long on GJ, haven't you Wasp?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

only just, waited for a little dip and was in. Can't see why anything would be different for the US markets for tomorrow? Strange...?

 

As for spreads, why on earth do you still use them?!! 30 pips is criminal!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Look out for that big-bad daily trend, Wasp... Price might not slice through that zone like a hot knife through butter. But it would be nice if it would... add a little weight to the move.

oct1208a.thumb.gif.41a1e82402bb2900d9eeb2f30a55110d.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As for spreads, why on earth do you still use them?!! 30 pips is criminal!

 

They're typically pretty good - but they do go up over the weekend and for the first 6 hours or so of trading on Sunday. Then the spreads shrink back down to around 6 pips, which I can tolerate. But they haven't pumped the spreads up to 30 like this since... hmm... every major crisis period we've had since that first August 2007.

 

If they keep it elevated too long now, I'll have to re-evaluate who I do business with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Look out for that big-bad daily trend, Wasp... Price might not slice through that zone like a hot knife through butter. But it would be nice if it would... add a little weight to the move.

 

I'm going to hold off and see if I can't snag an entry a little closer to that daily support line. Seems to me price should be able to muster a pull-back to that level before a more concerted effort higher occurs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good call on keeping an eye on the daily descending trend line.

 

I've attached an hourly chart with trend lines and horizontal support. There is resistance from the daily descending trend line and horizontal support from 174.35 via the 240-min chart.

geppy_1hr_10-12-2008_suday.thumb.gif.cdb848229b719773528f4b9b3aa0bad7.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
GJ short 171.94

 

I'm holding fire until the end of this hourly candle. Entries for me will only be on the hour, every hour and at no other time. I've decided I have to be absolutely rigid about that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought the rejection off the daily down trend line was pretty a pretty good signal.

 

I scaled my trade at +300 and closed at +197. The damn thing retraced close to 100 pips is like 5 seconds at when price touched 168.00. I was at +378 at that point. It's really difficult to for me still to decide when to close out. I'm still quite happy with the results none the less.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I thought the rejection off the daily down trend line was pretty a pretty good signal.

 

I scaled my trade at +300 and closed at +197. The damn thing retraced close to 100 pips is like 5 seconds at when price touched 168.00. I was at +378 at that point. It's really difficult to for me still to decide when to close out. I'm still quite happy with the results none the less.

 

As you should be! Nicely done.

 

As for that drop to 168... look closely and you'll see that it only appeared on the Oanda platform. Alpari didn't show it. They were playing some sort of very nasty game - dropping it 100 pips and then bringing it right back up. Glad I wasn't in on that. I haven't seen Oanda do that in well over a year. That's strike two against them now -- and all in one day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're right! I hadn't noticed that it didn't drop to 168 on Alpari. I saw a longish wick and assumed it dropped the same. I'm with you regards Oanda. If they're going to start with that kind of shenanigans, they won't have my business much longer.

 

I was looking at HotspotFX today. It looks pretty good and even has an API to hook up Metatrader 4. I'm not a programmer of that level so I'd have to use their regular interface. I also couldn't find what their spreads and commissions were either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thought so. Glad to meet you here. Are you still finishing school or are you into this full time now?

 

Hello Jack

I’m still in year 11, working toward a clutch of A-Levels aiming toward College induction further out. Plenty time to decide which career route to take later on.

 

Japan & U.S on vacation today so liquidity thin & choppy until Europe gets fully operational, hence the primary reason for those excessive spreads at some of those retail shops Cowpip.

Traders will also still be digesting the G7 comments/actions/repercusions too I guess.

 

Cool piece in the Inde yesterday.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/a-163516-trillion-derivatives-timebomb-958699.html

 

 

Right, off to school to hopefully learn some new stuff ;)

Looks like the markets might just be courting a little risk today on the back of those muppets at the G7. You yen cross traders could be in for a wild ride today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I’m still in year 11, working toward a clutch of A-Levels aiming toward College induction further out. Plenty time to decide which career route to take later on.

 

You sure you're only in year 11??? You've been hangin' out with Mark and the gang too much, haven't you? Tsk tsk.... they'll rot your brain with wealth faster than an apple in a hot sun. ;)

 

We've heard good things about you (through them). Keep it up, mate!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a bore today... Missed the ride back up last night. Had to sleep sometime. It's getting closer now to an entry, but so far, no luck.

 

It'll be most interesting now to see how the U.S. system reacts to all the European news. They were the only ones not to spell out specifics at their G7 meeting. They may regret that now, if they don't back-step first.

 

ADDED: There's news out now that the UK, Swiss and European central banks have set no upper limit to their U.S. dollar swap operations. Sigh... how thick are they, anyway? Throwing unlimited cash at the situation isn't going to improve interbank trust. But it WILL improve dependence upon the central banks - which could have the side-effect of degrading interbank trust further.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice one on catching the down move guys. I was expecting a HrL to cement the uptrend and bought into it thrice. I wasn't expecting it to use the original trendline to find it though... Needed this run up to counter the mess overnight!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You've been hangin' out with Mark and the gang too much, haven't you

 

Ha ha ha, yeah our Grandparents keep reminding us of their unsavory influence :o

 

I might appear a little sad, but to be honest I got all the same leisure pursuits as my friends.

It’s just we all have been bottle-fed this stuff from the cradle so it’s no biggie to our cousins & us.

 

Our older twin brother/sister aren’t interested in a trading or finance career even though they got a flair for it. One is studying the law, the other medicine. My younger sister is sharper than me at this & she loves it, but who knows how she’ll feel in a few yrs.

 

The one big advantage we all got is the fact we can generally navigate our way around out there without getting into too much trouble. We’ve been taught a few consistently reliable technical set-ups & triggers to employ in specific market conditions & got a basic handle on the fundamentals.

 

At the very least, it offers a good structure from which to learn more & pro-actively manage our own funds & investment capital going forward.

 

Apart from that I’m heavily into sports, parties, music, girls & not necessarily in that order :cool:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess the ‘risk appetite’ play turned out ok today? :)

 

I took a snag of this morning’s activity on this cross as Europe loaded up, but couldn’t log back in before I had to leave for the day.

 

The guy’s here were confirming that liquidity remained dire across the board even as Europe opened up after the w/end, so maybe it would have been a gamble to take it on this morning – however, there was some cool 4 & 1 hour action playing out.

 

I don't play the pound/yen pair very much, but that high close doji on the 240 & those bullish inside bars on the 60 ahead of that 171.37 are the types of price action I personally like to see. That looked like powerful teaser material & might have tempted a feeder stake via that 15min bullish action off the higher low steps?

 

I guess initial targets were visible at the weeks opening print high at 173.45 sounding out the higher focus swing at 175.90?

 

Certainly appeared the likely (less risky) bull play at the European Open if you were actually looking to play any increase in risk appetite & catch an uptick in volumes.

 

vsnbc6.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nicely done, Bobby!

 

I missed the entire move up. I was whipped last night and couldn't stay up long enough to get an entry. When I woke up, it had already moved almost 600 pips, so I'll wait for the next bus. But that was a nice clean move.

 

Frustrating I couldn't hitch a ride on that one! :angry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh, I wasn't on it Cowpip. I didn't play it, I just saw it setting up & thought I'd try post it before I got my backside kicked out the door.

 

I prefer the eur/$, the Cable & $/Swiss. If euro is attracting decent attention (either direction) I might have a watch of eur/yen for a popular set-up or two, depending on flows, but that's usually my limit on the crosses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
    • Date: 2nd April 2025.   Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!   The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports. USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation! Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement". Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised. Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products. The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.   USDJPY 5-Minute Chart   US Economic and Employment Data The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting. The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation. USDJPY Technical Analysis Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.     The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674. Key Takeaway Points: Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions. Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries. The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details. The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • HLF Herbalife stock, watch for a bull flag breakout above 9.02 at https://stockconsultant.com/?HLF
    • Date: 1st April 2025.   Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?   Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend? Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold. Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response. Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.   XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart   The Weakness In The US Dollar Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness. Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country. Can Gold Maintain Momentum? When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price. In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US. The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price. Key Takeaway Points: Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions. Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand. Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation. Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 31st March 2025.   Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.   The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024. Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again! The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025. Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit! A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline. Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.     The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.