Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

A lot of lines close together though...

 

Here's how I see it:

 

 

Wow, cool chart..! As for the TA, looked a perfect long IMO

[wasp 10]

Its the same thing again as on T2W. No one knew how big the move would be but the TA beat the FA too it again and showed everything!

[firewalker 10]

Its the same thing again as on T2W. No one knew how big the move would be but the TA beat the FA too it again and showed everything!

 

The reason?

"rumors of a long-term government solution to its crisis" :o

 

Yet that announcement was made early morning, not later in the day where the actual bounce occurred...

[wasp 10]

The reason?

"rumors of a long-term government solution to its crisis" :o

 

Yet that announcement was made early morning, not later in the day where the actual bounce occurred...

 

I would have said it was the FSA resolve that made a huge difference and the bounce happened prior. Actually no, wouldn't effect the USA much would it.

[wasp 10]

So what does all this FSA/SEC regulations mean to you guys?

 

ATM, the FSA has restricted the financials in the UK but will it really extend to all the indices?

[firewalker 10]

So what does all this FSA/SEC regulations mean to you guys?

 

ATM, the FSA has restricted the financials in the UK but will it really extend to all the indices?

 

There's also talk about more regulation in the options market, so they are definitely stepping up a plate, including derivatives... :\

 

I wish they looked inside, because it's their own cheap and easy money that created this bubble in the first place.

[wasp 10]

There's also talk about more regulation in the options market, so they are definitely stepping up a plate, including derivatives... :\

 

I wish they looked inside, because it's their own cheap and easy money that created this bubble in the first place.

 

That would mean admitting they screwed up though.

 

Told you to go FX! We're sorted!

[firewalker 10]

That would mean admitting they screwed up though.

 

Told you to go FX! We're sorted!

 

Gimme volume and it's done!

[wasp 10]

TOLD YOU TO GO FX! WE'RE SORTED!

 

ENOUGH VOLUME!?!?! :haha:

[wasp 10]

Extract from the speech by Callum McCarthy, Chairman of the Financial Services Authority to the Lord Mayor's City Banquet at the Mansion House this evening.

 

"We have been much concerned – as have many – at the volatility and what I would describe as incoherence in the trading of equities, particularly for financial institutions. There is a danger in a trading system which allows financial institutions to be targeted and subject to extreme short selling pressures, because movements in equity prices can be translated into uncertainty in the minds of those who place deposits with those institutions with consequent financial stability issues. We have seen acute examples of this phenomenon in both London and New York this week.

 

 

"The FSA has therefore decided to introduce a rule wtich will take effect from tomorrow, to require both the disclosure of short positions on a daily basis in respect of financial institutions; and a prohibition in any active increase in a net short position in a financial stock by whatever instrument. There will be an exception for market makers to enable them to meet client demand.

 

"We intend this prohibition to run in the first instance for some 120 days, during which time we will review both its effectiveness and the general policy we wish to adopt in respect of short selling more generally. This is a measure which reflects the present turbulence in markets. It is designed to have a calming effect – something which the equity markets for financial firms badly need. I hope that practitioners will support both the ambition and the chosen means of achieving it."

 

 

 

http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/handbook/instrument2_2008_50.pdf

 

http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/handbook/list_instrument200850.pdf

Edited September 18, 2008 by wasp

[wasp 10]

So for the next 4 months, there is no shorting of financial stocks, and possibly this will extend to other sectors too.

 

Does it not make sense then, to just buy the dips till January at least, or, wait for a drop then buy as much as possible into the FTSE now and hold till the new year?

 

As Yazoo said, the only way is up?

[firewalker 10]

So for the next 4 months, there is no shorting of financial stocks, and possibly this will extend to other sectors too.

 

Does it not make sense then, to just buy the dips till January at least, or, wait for a drop then buy as much as possible into the FTSE now and hold till the new year?

 

As Yazoo said, the only way is up?

 

I'm not so sure. What happens if you are the last man holding the bag? It might not be possible to initiate new short positions, but if you want to sell what you are holding you still need to get buyers interested. So suppose 50 people own 100 shares bought at $20. They want to sell it at $22, right now the price is $21. But nobody wants to buy from them, they only want to pay $18. The way I see it there are two possibilities: no transaction takes place and thus liquidity dries up (something which happened in the Freddie Mac chart I posted), or both sides agree on the transaction and price gaps down to $18.

 

I know this is a very simplified example, but why should price necessarily go up (yes initially...)

[Phil Mibbutz 10]

I'm not so sure. What happens if you are the last man holding the bag? It might not be possible to initiate new short positions, but if you want to sell what you are holding you still need to get buyers interested. So suppose 50 people own 100 shares bought at $20. They want to sell it at $22, right now the price is $21. But nobody wants to buy from them, they only want to pay $18. The way I see it there are two possibilities: no transaction takes place and thus liquidity dries up (something which happened in the Freddie Mac chart I posted), or both sides agree on the transaction and price gaps down to $18.

 

I know this is a very simplified example, but why should price necessarily go up (yes initially...)

 

A loss of liquidity will be the main effect, IMO. They're really shooting themself in the foot and making everything worse, while avoiding the root cause of the crisis.

 

PS. Glad someone else remembers Yazoo, that well known pump-and-dump merchant.

[wasp 10]

Like a cover of a led zeppelin album!*

 

It is amazing how S and R really can show so much. Just chuck in a trendline to filter out the rejections en route.

 

I am finding it hard to find a market this sort of action doesn't happen on either (FX especially)

 

 

 

 

 

 

(*many steps and columns - thanks Wayne and Garth!)

[wasp 10]

One thing I have never really worked out by using these levels is how you get the best entries?

 

With S/R and TL's I cn get in so tight I can have a stop so minimal it would even please Socrates but to anyone who pays more attention to these (Hrh and LrH etc), hwo do you get in at the best places?

 

The circled areas are the turning points but waiting for A HrH etc would mean a huge chunk missed.

Edited September 19, 2008 by wasp
more detailed chart added

[smbtnt 10]

Both mini bull cycles broke and bounced off 138 extension. 10500 was mega support but the extended fib refined the entry to 470...

 

It can be 127, 138 or 161.8 extensions. However as previously we had bounced at 138 on the penultimate break then one may assume the same forces are in play for this little bull cycle.

 

Hope this helps.

[wasp 10]

Both mini bull cycles broke and bounced off 138 extension. 10500 was mega support but the extended fib refined the entry to 470...

 

It can be 127, 138 or 161.8 extensions. However as previously we had bounced at 138 on the penultimate break then one may assume the same forces are in play for this little bull cycle.

 

Hope this helps.

 

 

How how this move worked with the fibs? I don't use them and not sure even where/how to put them on a chart!

[smbtnt 10]

How how this move worked with the fibs? I don't use them and not sure even where/how to put them on a chart!

 

sorry do not understand??

[wasp 10]

sorry do not understand??

 

You're prior chart (before the open) had fib levels on them.

 

What does it look like now?

 

I don't know how to use them at all so was curious to how the YM looks now (with them) after the open.

[smbtnt 10]

You're prior chart (before the open) had fib levels on them.

 

What does it look like now?

 

I don't know how to use them at all so was curious to how the YM looks now (with them) after the open.

 

Sorry, I did not make myself clear, the extended fibs are used to gauge value areas after a significant move or vice versa. After such a sgnificant move up which was not expected by anyone on this planet except 0.0000001% of the population this beast needs to calm down before extensions can be calculated.

[wasp 10]

Sorry, I did not make myself clear, the extended fibs are used to gauge value areas after a significant move or vice versa. After such a sgnificant move up which was not expected by anyone on this planet except 0.0000001% of the population this beast needs to calm down before extensions can be calculated.

 

Ahh, I see, cheers. I don't really understand fibs!

[wasp 10]

A few charts to start pipmonster...........

 

(ignore the volume)

 

 

EVERY tick and candle tells a story. EVERY minute explains everything and EVERY minute is an opportunity. There is NO randomness in the markets.

Edited September 19, 2008 by wasp

[wasp 10]

Some notes............

 

 

I could annotate these charts down to every candle, better if you raised questions about parts though!

[pipMonster 10]

Thanks Wasp! Greatly appreciated.

 

I'm going over the chart now and will post as soon as I have several questions for you instead of spilling out a stream of conscious into the thread.

[pipMonster 10]

Do you have one last chart showing your approximate entries and exits?

 

One of my problems is not keeping HhH/HrL and LrH/LrL in the front of my thinking. I became myopic in trying to plot trend lines correctly. It seems also I'm not letting price action develop sufficiently before jumping into a trade.

 

Once again, thanks for your unselfish guidance.